Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: charby on December 06, 2023, 07:45:20 AM
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https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-raises-stakes-border-dispute-025817583.html (Miami Hearld Article)
I read last week they were going to have a national vote on last Sunday to invade the oil rich region of Guyana and claim it as their own. Looks like it is going to happen.
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Yep, getting interesting.
That area has been contested between the two nations for 100 years or more.
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Guyana's leadership ought to start working on a back channel way to funnel US aid back to the Bidens under the table if they want to see any assistance from the USA to resist a Venezuelan invasion.
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Has the American socials medias weighed in on which side we're cheerleading for? I want to order my flag before they're all sold out and get in early on my avatar. Also, does anyone want to buy some lightly used Ukrainian and Hamas flags?
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I admit a lot of ignorance on this, but I was under the impression that Venezuela’s problem was not the lack of oil, but the lack of domestic capability to maintain the extraction apparatus they nationalized. Does the region they are claiming have merely more resources, or do they have extraction infrastructure in place too?
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Alert me when
Poland Guyana attacks a German Venezuelan radio station
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I was just looking, and maps seem to be all over the place regarding the boundary of this region and the labeling of it. I pulled the two below off google earth. All it showed for Essequibo was the Essequibo River, well into the disputed area. The first image has red border(?) lines show up when you zoom in far enough. The second is zoomed out farther and shows what appears to be unmarked borders in the region.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53379536791_871a4d45be_c.jpg)
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53379848424_46665a1e22_c.jpg)
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I admit a lot of ignorance on this, but I was under the impression that Venezuela’s problem was not the lack of oil, but the lack of domestic capability to maintain the extraction apparatus they nationalized. Does the region they are claiming have merely more resources, or do they have extraction infrastructure in place too?
A few things I recall:
1. Venezuelan oil is high in sulfur.
2. There were refineries to clean it up and process it. All the foreigners who were there left. I don't know how much local expertise there was.
3. The greedy fools with Govt connections who were put in charge of the refineries sold off all the spare parts for personal profit. I imagine that behavior was echoed by lower ranked people.
4. With no spare parts and cut off from foreign sources, I don't know how long any of that could remain running.
I don't know about the actual oil wells. With no where to go with the oil, they probably shut down. I also don't know if the Guyanan crude oil is different.
An engineer I know used to work down there long before all this and is married to a Venezuelan lady. Many of her relatives have gotten out of that country since all that started.
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Comment found on another forum
"That's like 2 homeless camps invading each other."
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From the link in the OP
The announcement comes after Maduro claimed that 98% of Venezuelans overwhelmingly approved on Sunday his annexation of a new state that accounts for three quarters of Guyana’s current land mass. While Guyana objected to the vote and called it illegal, international observers have questioned the election results. The government’s report of voter participation did not square with the empty voting stations seen during the day and was more than twice as high as that of independent exit polls.
Must of hired Philadelphia poll workers
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https://www.amazon.com/Countdown-M-Day-Tom-Kratman-ebook/dp/B00APA4O66/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&dib_tag=AUTHOR&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.suo1qucfodXGZvZbr0s8JeTorVNqt0G99H-V_n7D0uJp3uW4URWc9CghA3IZHr7CO_ZTv7H1LXk419lNwt_DwF9iMN-XvbwXXHUpKTXmloIVZ9pTLZ8OkGSV-HTOYpdquZPjecyLFIeQLyJyAqavDjiFrJszJk2gKFelyFxNdi6uRED7_tJKaeRZg5DMGVQpd4AZssniyazpgTatBhEnCFtAVzr1c3BQD44InGr9ANY.Az627ymif0EWHHgYoEZox0lOgezUFD7kn_uq-LqZvOQ&qid=&sr=
I think this is the military fiction book that covered this scenario. It is about mercenaries hired to defend Guyana. At least I hope I didn't link to the wrong book. by Tom Kr.
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From the link in the OP
Must of hired Philadelphia poll workers
Nah. Putin school of referendum management
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So does either Venezuela or Guyana have a military worth mentioning?
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Comment found on another forum
"That's like 2 homeless camps invading each other."
Well, except one of them is a lot bigger. Venezuela=115,000 military personnel, Guyana=4300, which S2 Underground points out regarding the latter, is about the size of a large US city police department.
Apparently Venezuela has already changed maps to include a new border, and is beginning to issue Venezuelan IDs to people in the region.
https://youtu.be/TiLk0xT9qxM
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So does either Venezuela or Guyana have a military worth mentioning?
Guyana is part of the UK Commonwealth.
So perhaps the Brits will get sporty with Venezuela?
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Guyana is part of the UK Commonwealth.
So perhaps the Brits will get sporty with Venezuela?
From wiki
Member states have no legal obligations to one another but are connected through their use of the English language and historical-cultural ties. Citizenship of a Commonwealth country affords benefits in some member countries, particularly in the United Kingdom, and Commonwealth countries are represented to one another by high commissions rather than embassies. The Commonwealth Charter defines their shared values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law,[11] as promoted by the quadrennial Commonwealth Games.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations
So according to that they're under no obligation to do so but that doesn't mean they won't of course.
But keep an ear out for any movement of the QE carriers and/or any other RN units to the region just in case
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From wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations
So according to that they're under no obligation to do so but that doesn't mean they won't of course.
But keep an ear out for any movement of the QE carriers and/or any other RN units to the region just in case
I will be moderately surprised if the Brits decide to intervene militarily - this wouldn't be an action like the Falklands, and I suspect the Guyanans aren't sufficiently "British."
Hopefully Brandon will keep our noses out of it.
Hmmm . . . what relations do China and Venezuela have? I bet China would love to see the US involved in yet another conflict.
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The Falkland Islands are actually claimed as British territory, which is why Britain went to war in 1982.
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What's the over/under this being the one military action in the last 20 years we keep our noses out of?
Or does Guyana suddenly really need a lot of Raytheon and Northrop products?
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If Brandon's team decides that our getting involved in this dustup would help his re-election, then we will be sending supplies and maybe troops south of the border.
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Googling back on this news story, apparently as recently as late November the US and UK both have made statements that they will respect the 1899 Guyana/Venezuela border and for Venezuela not to "invade" Guyana.
Something about an Exxon oil platform off the coast of the newly claimed Venezuelan territory that is going to have deal with Maduro in the coming months. I'm trying to get the read on that.
Wait and see, I guess.
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If Brandon's team decides that our getting involved in this dustup would help his re-election, then we will be sending supplies and maybe troops south of the border.
How would Brandon getting involved in an OIL WAR!!!! AMERICAN LIVES SHOULD'T BE SPENT ON OIL!!! going to help his re-election?
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Well we never say outright it's a war for oil.
The brave [checks notes] Guyanaians are just fighting for freedom.
Or we can sink a US flagged tanker. American ships being lost is a classic war starter.
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So when's the first $50 billion, minus the big guy's cut, "aid" package to Guyana?
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Or we can sink a US flagged tanker. American ships being lost is a classic war starter.
Don't even have to sink one. Just claim that it was fired upon (*cough* Tonkin *cough*).
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How would Brandon getting involved in an OIL WAR!!!! AMERICAN LIVES SHOULD'T BE SPENT ON OIL!!! going to help his re-election?
Don't know. Hence the "if". You can bet his re-election team is gaming possibilities, though.
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Guyana is mostly populated by English speaking people with Indian (Asian) and African ancestry.
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How would Brandon getting involved in an OIL WAR!!!! AMERICAN LIVES SHOULD'T BE SPENT ON OIL!!! going to help his re-election?
He could say that we would NOT take any oil from that region. Wars where the USA has no compelling national interest are the only just wars on which to spend American blood and treasure, since with nothing at stake our motives must be pure.
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Ed Nash thinks this is more than likely just bluster for internal consumption.
Part of his reasoning is that if they were going to invade they would have just done it and not given everyone a warning and a chance to prepare
Venezuela and Guyana; What’s it all about?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pwtR5hwsio
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Several people in the comments pointed out that the only road connecting Venezzuela to Guyana runs through Brazil. This could be a problem for Ven in moving troops and supplies though there are some river connections.