Where Will this Lead the World To?

[Werewolf]

Iran issues Claim, Threat on Nuke Capability

The new threat comes at a crucial time, with Europe trying in fragile negotiations to seal an agreement to ensure that Irans nuclear program does not produce weapons.

Hmmmm....

Well we all know how it turned out the last time Europeans tried negotiating with a tyrant.

Does "Peace in our time...." ring any bells?

[Standing Wolf]

Does "Peace in our time...." ring any bells?

Yep. I think the Europeans should sit down and shut up for awhile, another two or three hundred years, say. They've been all over the political compass during the past hundred years or so, but haven't actually contributed anything to humanity. They've slaughtered millions to no useful purpose whatever. I think they'd be happier if they'd just busy themselves making cheese and cars and sweaters and stuff like that: nothing that's actually dangerous. They need to be put on probation and kept there a few generations.

[Iain]

Yep Europeans are all bad.

Europe trying to seal an agreement that means that Iran does not produce nuclear weapons is bad? It is bad, if there are no teeth to the agreement, but who says that there won't be?

What is your alternative solution? I remember SW, you are a big fan of nuclear-created parking lots.

By all means dismiss all Europeans as cheese-eating, useless blots of the face of humanity, with no discernible purpose if it amuses you to do so. I'll dismiss you as nuke-happy.

[Werewolf]

The problem as I see it is that once again Europeans are attempting to use appeasment to reign in evil.

It didn't work with Hitler, it didn't work with Sadaam.

Why would it work with Iran?

Some times talking just doesn't cut it and with Iran it's likely that what ever they agree to will be reniged on eventually anyway.

The Europeans are just delaying the inevitable by trying to negotiate Iran's nuclear program away.

Offering them goodies to be good guys and obey their treaty obligations is no different from a person paying off their neighbor not to shoot them.

[Iain]

How are we going to deal with it though? N Korea is making what the Whitehouse has called 'provocative statements' - here Can we afford to threaten them both?

[Werewolf]

With N. Korea the real hammer will be China. IMO China is trying to join mainstream international society. It is not in their best interest at all (especially considering the geography) to have N. Korea be a nuclear power. China could if they wanted to put an end to N. Korea's adventurism in half a heart beat. Just a threat from China to the effect that if N. Korea doesn't stop its nuclear program and destroy existing nukes would be enough in my opinion to make N. Korea tow the line. Add Russia to the list and the N. Korean leadership (who wants little more than to remain in power) would knuckle under quickly.

The US however has little leverage because any one with half a brain knows that (at least right now) we don't have the ability to project much real power into N. Korea.

So we must exert our diplomatic influence on China and Russia to take care of the Korea issue.

Iran is a bit stickier. The military option is on the table (George stated as much in an interview with Bill O'Reilley a while back) but isn't really realistic at this time. Diplomacy will not work either - the Iranian Theocracy hates us.

The Iranian people on the other hand - according to all reports - like the US. So maybe covert aid to dissidents, the political opposition etc could work to take out the Mullahs running the country and replace the government with a more friendly, secular and tractable one.

Personally I don't feel threatened at all by N. Korea having nukes - their leadership pretty much just wants everyone to leave them the hell alone. Only if they sold the tech out of country would I be concerned.

OTOH I do feel threatened by the prospect of Iran going nuclear. Islam has no love for the west - the US in particular. Given nukes and the opportunity to covertly deploy them I believe strongly that Iran would in fact deploy them and start blowing up western cities. How would we retaliate? We couldn't - unless we could positively ID those that deployed the weapons (and what are the odds of that - not much left after a nuclear blast). What if it was Al Queda - what country do you retaliate against since AQ represents a multi-nation based organization. Given that the level of destruction were great enough the west might just wipe 'em all out - but I doubt it. We'd all sit around with our thumbs up our asses, scared looks on our faces and wondering just what the hell to do next.

That's why it is critical IMO that Iran not be permitted to acquire by any means nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately I don't think the west has the cajones to do what will be required. I give it 10 or so years before the first nuke planted by terrorists takes out a western city - probably one in the US.

[Leatherneck]

" the Iranian Theocracy hates us.

The Iranian people on the other hand - according to all reports - like the US."

But it's the Mullahs who are sending Shia fighters and trainers into Iraq right now, and who will have their fingers on the nuclear trigger if they go that way. Scares the BeJeebus outa me.

TC

[Standing Wolf]

...any one with half a brain knows that (at least right now) we don't have the ability to project much real power into N. Korea.

Marine divisions, probably not; weapons, yes.

[Werewolf]

But what do we point the weapons at?

My understanding concerning targets in N. Korea is that they are truly hard targets - Built into mountains or hardened underground concrete bunkers.

Youf standard cruise missile can't take those out. At least I don't think they can.

Then there's the chinese to consider. They don't want nukes in NK but if we overtly attacked NK with cruise missiles or a surgical air strike I doubt the Chinese would take it well.

Do we really want to risk a war with China? They'd be a tough nut to crack. How does one go about defeating a nation of one billion  people? Hell if even 10% of them decide to fight that's 100 million folks - 100 million and I'd bet there's enough rifles in china to give one to every one of those 100 million folks. This ain't 1951 - the chinese aren't stupid - they learn from their mistakes - albeit slowly.

[jefnvk]

Kinda makes me wonder how in sync NK and Iran are.  Seems that onece news pops upon one, I know new news will pop up on the other soon after.

Almost seems like a race for attention to me.

[Bemidjiblade]

I think it puts Bush's old "Axis of Evil" speech in context.

Maybe he knew something we didn't?  I agree with jefnvk that it's eerie how lockstep those two powers are doing things.

[roo_ster]

The euros will act the unarmed bobbie to Iran's purse-snatcher, "Stop!  Or I'll say 'stop' again!"

If I thought they could do any good, I would back the euro gum-flapping mission.  Unfortunately for the euros, they are dealing with people who know how to act, not just talk.

The best hope for Iran is that the Iranians rise up and depose the mad mullahs.  I say we support that movement to the hilt...and keep our cudgel handy in case that fails.

The Norks are nuttier than a fruit-cake.  They will eventually have to be dealt with in a harsh manner.  In the meantime, we need to develop small nuke bunker-busters for when the need arises and produce a bunch of fuel-air explosive munitions to quickly wipe out the Nork arty on the DMZ.

[RevDisk]

Kinda makes me wonder how in sync NK and Iran are.  Seems that onece news pops upon one, I know new news will pop up on the other soon after.

Almost seems like a race for attention to me.

Sync or lockstep?  Eh, sort of.  They are probably cooperating on some strategic means.   They are doing so because they are both in a similiar situation and have similiar goals.  Alliances are not made because countries love each other, they are usually made out of necessity.  US and the USSR during WWII.  

One decade, anyone who questioned the Commies were being unpatriotic about our glorious allies in smashing the bad guys!   Couple decades later, anyone questioning the sanity of training terrorists/insurgents/guerillas were being unpatriotic about our glorious allies in smashing the Commie bad guys!   In a couple decades, we will likely accuse folks criticizing our alliance with the terrorists/insurgents/guerillas of being unpatriotic in our struggle against tomorrow's enemies.  

It's the way of things.  They are cooperating to a larger extent these because we have declared them to be our enemies.  To expect otherwise would be illogical.  Was the "Axis of Evil" speech a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was it accurately portraying an already existing alliance?   Probably a mix of both, most things are.

[Preacherman]

The real problem is regional proliferation of nuclear weapons.  If one state gets them, others in the region who feel threatened will want them too.  For example:

- If North Korea gets nukes, look for South Korea, Japan, and possibly Thailand and Indonesia to want them;

- If Iran gets nukes, look for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and possibly Syria to want them as well.

[Werewolf]

Ahhhhhhh...
Preacherman gets it!

Dominoe theory - turned out to be right regarding Vietnam and it's still right regarding Nukes, Iran and North Korea.