Author Topic: yet another housing bubble thread  (Read 4817 times)

atek3

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yet another housing bubble thread
« on: May 19, 2005, 12:54:57 PM »
Am I the only one that finds in conversation with Would-be/ New Homebuyers that they sound like dot-com investors circa '99.  "Stocks always go up in the long run (Home's do too apparently)". "This time it's different".  "valuation is irrelevent."

Of course stocks go up in the long run, but buying at the peak means waiting years before you show any paper profits.  Housing always goes up in the long run, but look at Japan, when their frothy real estate boom collapsed, it still hasn't come back.  

I think the thing that is so menacing about the housing bubble is that people are leveraged to the hilt to afford 750,000 dollar homes that 4 years ago were selling for $275,000.  When interest rates rise, which they will, and their adjustable rate morgage payment soars, they are going to be left SOL, unless their salaries soar to make up for the increase, which is doubtful.

The Dot Com boom on the other hand, was mainly people "investing" non-essential money, money that would have flowed into an IRA or 401k was instead eaten by the dot bomb.  Unwitting housing speculators have the majority of their net worth in what they think is a "safe investment"... We'll see.

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Nathaniel Firethorn

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2005, 01:00:25 PM »
Quote
Am I the only one
Nope.

Kind of makes me wonder what the next bubble is going to be. I'd like to get my soap ready early. Cheesy

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The Rabbi

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2005, 02:10:34 PM »
There are a lot of differences between a housing bubble and a stock bubble.  One of them is liquidity.  You can sell a stock in about 5 seconds but a home takes a little longer.  Also, every home is unique while stock is identical.
But that said, yes people are going to get their heads handed to them if interest rates rise rapidly and/or demand for housing slacks off.  I remember buying a house in Philadelphia in 1990 during the last bubble.  That little experience cost me about $50k.
But I personally am looking forward to 14% mortgage rates.  I have a lot of cash lying around and not much debt.  There will bargains galore.
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atek3

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2005, 03:04:02 PM »
I should have mentioned, i have a semi unique perspective, I work in the bay area at a company with lots of young professionals, who are all trying to buy homes for stupid prices.

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2005, 03:58:54 PM »
Atek,
My brother in law is probably one of those people.  He and his wife just spent like $1M for a house with 3 BR.  Really in the long run the CW is right: housing prices only go up.  But thats the long run.  A lot of people (myself included) have discovered that the long run doesnt help if you need/want to sell now.
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Waitone

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2005, 04:06:54 PM »
Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks there is a housing bubble.  Seems to me our handlers and bankers are sticking their fingers in their ears and singing to avoid the reality of reality.

IIRC most mortgages are adjustable or no principal.  Hot housing markets see speculation galore.  I've seen slate roofs and copper gutters which clues me there is simply too much money available.  I have a buddy in the Tampa area who is buying and reselling houses and doing quite nicely.  He will admit at some point he will eat a mortgage but so far his luck has held out.

What I want to know is why is it American policy to stimulate the US housing sector in an era when follow on purchases such as textiles, furniture, and white goods accrue to foreign countries and not the US.  When was that decision made and who made it?
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Sindawe

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2005, 05:55:29 PM »
I see it too atek3, and IMHO its very very foolish.  A long term friend and his wife sold their nearly paid off, 60s vintage split level house to buy their current "dream home".  Very nice house, lots of space, light and amenities, but he as the same view as you describe.  Keep it for a couple of years, then sell it and use the proceeds to buy an even larger, more luxurious house.  Its not like they need the room, since they are commited DINKs (Dual Income No Kids).  I hope they don't get bit when the bubble finally burts, though its not too bad here in Colorado.  The average price of Townhouse style Condos in my community has only doubled since I bought 10 years ago.  If the bubble burts hard here, I'm not overly worried.  I have fixed low rate, and don't plan on going anywhere else unlesss its off planet or the Yellowstone caldera blows.
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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2005, 06:15:46 PM »
The people buying in super inflated markets are gambling with a LOT of money that they don't have. Luckily the area I'm in is not seeing the crazy price inflation in older housing markets. The new developments that are going in have some very fancy and correspondingly expensive houses, but the older homes are still affordable. In fact I'm shopping for vacant land 45min-1hr east of cleveland and it seems to be going for as low as 2000 an acre, which is pretty reasonable I think.

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2005, 06:43:44 PM »
Just consider it financial Darwinism.

Telperion

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2005, 08:13:58 PM »
There are some new 2-3 bedroom condos not a few blocks from me.  Guess the starting price... the sign out front says "starting from the low $1,000,000s".  I'll have get a picture for you.  Absolutely.  Absurd.

The Rabbi

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2005, 03:42:10 AM »
Actually I see the trigger coming.  In any bubble like this one there is always some triggering event that precipitates the catastrophe.  Here I think it will be the de-chartering and subsequent break down of Fannie and Freddie.  This will create chaos in the mortgage industry in the short term (and be good in the long term) but will make mortgages scarce, drying up buyers.  Cash will be king.
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Nathaniel Firethorn

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2005, 04:21:47 AM »
Quote
Seems to me our handlers and bankers are sticking their fingers in their ears and singing to avoid the reality of reality.
You're kidding, right? These are the people who will be laughing all the way to the bank. The losers are going to be their hotshot "investor" customers who are trying to get something for nothing.
Quote
Here I think it will be the de-chartering and subsequent break down of Fannie and Freddie.
There would have to be a lot of defaults before things get that drastic. Recall that FSLIC survived their own real-estate speculation crisis in the '80s.

But remind me not to invest any more money in REITs. Cheesy

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mfree

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2005, 04:42:22 AM »
This is why I feel fortunate. I'm leasing to own with equity built in to the contract, and a clause that any improvements I make to the house come off the locked-in value when I took over. So basically I'm paying $750 a month to cover the existing mortgage, 35% of which applies to the house value, plus I've already dropped in $4000 in improvements...

For a 1450 sq. ft 2 bed, 1 bath basement rancher almost in the middle of Knoxville on a double lot, big enough for me to build my dream workshop/garage....

.....I'll probably mortgage in at around the $81,000 mark. pays to know people and to be a good friend, I suppose Smiley

The Rabbi

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2005, 04:56:31 AM »
Quote from: Nathaniel Firethorn
Quote
Seems to me our handlers and bankers are sticking their fingers in their ears and singing to avoid the reality of reality.
You're kidding, right? These are the people who will be laughing all the way to the bank. The losers are going to be their hotshot "investor" customers who are trying to get something for nothing.
Quote
Here I think it will be the de-chartering and subsequent break down of Fannie and Freddie.
There would have to be a lot of defaults before things get that drastic. Recall that FSLIC survived their own real-estate speculation crisis in the '80s.

But remind me not to invest any more money in REITs. Cheesy

- NF
You've got to be old enough to remember the late '80s, right?  That's when a change in tax law precipitated an enormous number of defaults.  S&L's, the primary lenders, were going belly up all over the country.  The RTC came in and cleaned up the mess, auctioning off condos and other properties for fractions of what they had sold for only 18 months earlier.  So, no.  The bankers are going to lose their jobs through lay-offs or firings.
With Fannie and Freddie, the de-chartering process is already underway.  Look at Greenspan's comments this morning on the subject.  They could go under without a single default.  A lot of their balance sheet is made up of hedging with derivatives.  Actually no one knows how much they are liable for.  If interest rates move the wrong way suddenly they will be on the hook for billions of dollars.  I say they.  Of course I mean us.
In REITS I'd look at the non-residential sectors.
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Nathaniel Firethorn

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2005, 05:44:28 AM »
Hoo, boy...
Quote
In REITS I'd look at the non-residential sectors.
Those are subject to speculation too. Around here we've got millions of square feet of unused commercial space -- and still the developers want to build more.

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2005, 08:05:56 AM »
Yes, there is a real estate bubble, atek.
 
The federal government won't be able to bail FNMA or FHLMC out if it bursts. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are liable for debt to the tune of about 3 $trillion (total US debt-8 $trillion, not counting future welfare obligations). Their line of credit with the treasury is only 2.5 $billion.

atek3

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2005, 08:13:09 AM »
Quote from: RileyMc
Just consider it financial Darwinism.
The world of economics isn't a zero sum game... when all these poor dolts lose their homes and savings, I'm not going to get correspondingly richer... society will be that much worse off as a whole.

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The Rabbi

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2005, 08:15:39 AM »
Quote from: atek3
Quote from: RileyMc
Just consider it financial Darwinism.
The world of economics isn't a zero sum game... when all these poor dolts lose their homes and savings, I'm not going to get correspondingly richer... society will be that much worse off as a whole.

atek3
But only as a whole.  On an individual basis it often presents great opportunities.  Look at the stock market bubble.  It made a huge transfer of wealth from the greedy and stupid to the greedy and smart.  Anyone selling in this market will do well.
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Paddy

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2005, 08:18:47 AM »
IF .gov had invested social security 'contributions' in government sponsored residential real estate lending years ago, both institutions would be financially solvent today.  But no, they had to spend future benefits (mostly on social welfare programs).  What you subsidize, you get more of.

RevDisk

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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2005, 08:40:31 AM »
Keep a fair amount of cash on hand, and when it bursts, you might be able to pick up land dirt cheap.  My brother is buying his first home.  He's getting the APR fixed, just in case.
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Azrael256

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yet another housing bubble thread
« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2005, 11:09:07 AM »
We REALLY lucked out in all of this.  The houses in this neighborhood are appraising higher and higher.  A friend's parents' house just appraised for $155k, from a real walk-through appraisal.  They have a foundation crack that is going to be repaired soon, the walls just saw their second coat of paint in thirty years, and landscaping is not their strong suit.  This house has been maintained just enough to keep it from falling over.  They paid $80k for it twenty-ish years ago.  Fortunately for them, it's all equity, as they had the place paid off quickly.  His dad's overtime may have kept him from keeping the place up, but it did end the mortgage pretty quick.

This house was going to go on the market for $135k.  For some reason, the fire that nearly destroyed it lowered its value.  I learned of the fire, and the first thing I thought of was the fact that the roof is brand new.  It is basically new construction.  The only original parts of the house are the brick and the slab.  All the wiring (which was the cause of the fire) is brand spankin' new, and very high grade.  Very little of the plumbing had to be replaced, but what was replaced was done well.  The only problem I have found was the cheap caulk in the shower.  Somehow this knocked nearly thirty grand off the appraisal.  Oh well!

It also didn't hurt that the previous owners were my great aunt and uncle.  Mom asked my great aunt what she wanted for the place...

"Well, we're going to ask 135...  but 115 if you want it."  I think we paid $500 to have a lawyer draw up all the papers.  No agent comission, a real simple title transfer, and a whopping downpayment (they asked for 2% down, we gave them 10% and got half the interest rate) secured this place for much less than we had anticipated.  Mom is also really careful to "accidentally" send two extra payments each year.


Now take a drive North into Plano, some of Garland, and McKinney (really, even further North if you want).  I don't like mcmansions at any price (unless I'm buying them on the cheap to rent out), but there are 2500 square foot houses running into the $300k range.  We're talking an easy $250k for a 2500 square foot house with no yard, shoehorned in next to the other houses, no schools just yet, and a long way from anything at all.  There is no rail up there (and knowing DART, my grandkids will graduate college before there's a train up there), and many of the areas are not yet serviced by decent highways.  Much of this area is going from glorified goat paths to four-lane concrete very rapidly, which is just going to drive the already inflated property values higher.  Much of this housing started on the back of the tech boom, so the developers are already eating it big time as the demand for this housing plummets.  If I had some cash on hand, I'd be gleefully dancing around the Frisco area buying houses for the remaining balances, and just waiting for highway and commercial construction to drive the price up more.  I imagine it would be an even better deal the day after the housing market collapses.  A man with a few hundred grand could easily retire in five years on a plan like that.