Author Topic: Billions and Billions!!  (Read 7455 times)

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 46,109
  • I'm an Extremist!
Billions and Billions!!
« on: November 05, 2013, 10:26:45 AM »
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Tallpine

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 23,172
  • Grumpy Old Grandpa
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2013, 10:47:03 AM »
If there's nobody else out there, it's an awful waste of space.   :lol:
Freedom is a heavy load, a great and strange burden for the spirit to undertake. It is not easy. It is not a gift given, but a choice made, and the choice may be a hard one. The road goes upward toward the light; but the laden traveller may never reach the end of it.  - Ursula Le Guin

Devonai

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,645
  • Panic Mode Activated
    • Kyrie Devonai Publishing
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2013, 12:18:07 PM »
My writing blog: Kyrie Devonai Publishing

When in danger, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout!

Sergeant Bob

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,861
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2013, 12:27:13 PM »
I'd be kind of worried about meeting some of the possible inhabitants of said planets. Since I don't see us reaching them anytime soon (centuries, if possible at all), they would likely be so technologically advanced as to see us on the level of neanderthals and would probably rape the Earth for it's resources. Just a gas station on the way to their ultimate destination. Maybe I've read too many SciFi stories and watched too many movies?
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2013, 01:22:19 PM »
The number of potential abodes for "life as we know it" getting ever bigger helps in the odds game of the Drake Equation somewhat, but there's still some HUGE downward pressures on the chances of making some sort of SETI contact.

Earth spent a looooong time, the lion's share of it's geological history, close to 90% from the end of the Hadean to the Paleozoic where the first vertebrates start showing up in the fossil record.  There's no reason to believe other planets might be even slower, but there's no reason to believe they'd be faster in turning up complex life either. Planets that are more stable than Earth environmentally might turn out life faster, OTOH, without upheavals, ice-ages, asteroid/comet impacts, supervolcanisim etc. there might not be any selection pressures for things to "get interesting" either. OTOHOH... Planets that are too violent might have the same result, mass extinctions that keep resetting the clock back to single-cell organisms.

There's also nothing in evolution that points towards intelligence or tool using as being "goals".  Evolution is a blind process and does not have any "goals" at all, other than adequacy and the filling of environmental niches.

That said, billions of planets seems like good odds for at least one other intelligent tool using, technological species to arise somewhere, sometime in the galaxy. However, assuming radio transmissions at light speed, it's still infinitesimally slow as compared to the scale of the Galaxy.

http://jackadam.net/misc/radio_broadcasts/radio_broadcasts.jpg

The sphere defined by the light-front of ANY purposeful brodcasts from Earth is only roughly 200 light years in diameter. If we were to try and "detect ourselves" at this distance, an all out effort on our part to build very large spaceborne VLBI arrays might just barely be able to catch a faint snippet of artificial carrier radio signals. POWERFUL broadcasts like 1950's over-the-horizon Cold War radars that only need radio dish arrays the size of whole planets rather than the size of whole solar systems, are only half of that distance. And our history of RF leakage into the galaxy is also constantly getting weaker by the light-second due to the inverse square law. And as our technology advances, fiber optics, directional tight-beam radio, digital spread spectrum technology etc. means our signals are getting weaker, not stronger. We are already "going dark" again to some degree.

One thing that's not talked about is that even the most sensitive instruments given over to SETI work, unless the transmitting species is within just a few hundred light years of us, the physics of the thing suppose an alien race that wants to be heard very badly and builds a radio transmitter that harnesses the energy output of entire stars.

Granted, we've barely begun to LOOK, but so far there also seems to be a lack of Dyson Spheres, Von Neuman probes, or evidence for any Kardashev Type II or III civilizations, which are things we could see at considerable distances across our galaxy, or find right here in our solar system. There are definitely none yet that are actively trying to attract our attention. (conspiracy theories notwithstanding) And that kind of belies the Fermi Paradox arguments that it would only take one long-lived surviving technological species to cover our galaxy, even at just a fraction of light speed, and we should know of them.

My gut feeling is that there is at least a handful of intelligent tool-using species in our galaxy at any given time, but not all of them "make it", and those that do, the technology level needed to meaningfully challenge interstellar space is so high, it fundamentally changes their paradigm of existence to the point we can't see them, or have any basis for understanding what it is they do. So rather than "Star Trek", think "The Monolith Makers of 2001", except those species don't even leave the monoliths laying around for us to wonder what they are.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2013, 01:28:00 PM by AJ Dual »
I promise not to duck.

RevDisk

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,633
    • RevDisk.net
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2013, 01:45:02 PM »
Granted, we've barely begun to LOOK, but so far there also seems to be a lack of Dyson Spheres, Von Neuman probes, or evidence for any Kardashev Type II or III civilizations, which are things we could see at considerable distances across our galaxy, or find right here in our solar system. There are definitely none yet that are actively trying to attract our attention. (conspiracy theories notwithstanding) And that kind of belies the Fermi Paradox arguments that it would only take one long-lived surviving technological species to cover our galaxy, even at just a fraction of light speed, and we should know of them.

If it turns out that it is not possible to breach light speed, that'd put a significant limit in the territory of even a star faring species. It's 4.2421 light years to Proxima Centauri. If we made the run at say, Helios 2 solar probe speed of 0.000234c or 43.63 mi/s, you're talking about a very long trip. Suppose magic alloys, cryogenics or force fields don't exist either. Entropy is a mean customer. A journey of hundreds or thousands of years is a very long time for nothing significant to break. 



My gut feeling is that there is at least a handful of intelligent tool-using species in our galaxy at any given time, but not all of them "make it", and those that do, the technology level needed to meaningfully challenge interstellar space is so high, it fundamentally changes their paradigm of existence to the point we can't see them, or have any basis for understanding what it is they do. So rather than "Star Trek", think "The Monolith Makers of 2001", except those species don't even leave the monoliths laying around for us to wonder what they are.

My guess is it is a tossup between species evolve to being something beyond our comprehension, or there are limits to the physical world and folks are restricted to their neck of the universe. It's highly unlikely we're the sole organic life in the universe.
"Rev, your picture is in my King James Bible, where Paul talks about "inventors of evil."  Yes, I know you'll take that as a compliment."  - Fistful, possibly highest compliment I've ever received.

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2013, 02:42:00 PM »
If it turns out that it is not possible to breach light speed, that'd put a significant limit in the territory of even a star faring species. It's 4.2421 light years to Proxima Centauri. If we made the run at say, Helios 2 solar probe speed of 0.000234c or 43.63 mi/s, you're talking about a very long trip. Suppose magic alloys, cryogenics or force fields don't exist either. Entropy is a mean customer. A journey of hundreds or thousands of years is a very long time for nothing significant to break.  

43 miles/sec is not very much, even with realistic tech we have today. Using the most aggressive slingshot maneuvers we can get from the planets of the Solar system and sun, a Nuclear-thermal "first stage", then some sort of constant thrust ion "second stage" I think we could do a lot better than that.

Brute-force methods for interstellar travel are feasible. Especially if you are talking a Von Neuman probe that only needs to make it 5-10 light years to the next star system with enough planets/debris to make one or two copies and send them on their way. And stellar density in the Milky Way is on average higher in many places than it is here.

And presuming strong-AI with long-lived fault-tolerant storage, or maybe an "ecosystem" of self organizing simpler machines, they don't need the mass penalty of life support for biological organisms.  Build a plug/shield of vacuum foamed ice or asteroid regolith as a radiation/dust shield, and something like a fusion pulse engine or even just dirty fission/Orion bombs for propulsion. Maybe 3.x% of c is attainable. Use Teller-Ulam H-bombs, and you might make 10% of c.  And you'd only accelerate at 1g for maybe 10-30 days. Instead of making H-bombs for the braking maneuver and then hoping they keep fresh for a few hundred years, you keep the Deuterium in the ice shield that proceeds the ship, and the elements for the fission triggers and neutron reflectors spread out through the ship to maximize half-lives and losses from cosmic ray strikes. Then the ship assembles the braking bombs in-flight.

When biological lifespans are out of the equation, it simplifies things, both in terms of what mission profiles are acceptable, and in the duration/longevity.

Or you build a big mass-driver and fire solar-sail "seeds" with just enough bootstrap robotics to build a mass-driver in the next star-system. Even at 10% of c or less, it's still under a million years to cover the entire galaxy assuming an exponential "tree" of missions launched from local materials and resources.  Or maybe a hybrid mode, with ships that never brake that scatter the solar-sail robotic "seeds".

Either way, if they can achieve even 5% of c, and launch new expeditions from destination star systems, that's an eyeblink even in geological timescales, much less stellar ones. And it plays into the "Where Are They?" question that's at the core of the Fermi Paradox.

However I think that when the technology for these feats are possible, the species or it's surviving machines might just not care, and instead engage in "navel contemplation" with a digital existence, or further exploit things in the quantum or multi-dimensional realm that we're just beginning to sort out which one is the right "theory of everything" that don't require expansion on the macro interstellar scale.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2013, 02:45:46 PM by AJ Dual »
I promise not to duck.

RevDisk

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,633
    • RevDisk.net
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2013, 02:49:18 PM »

Speeding up isn't the problem. Slowing down on the other side is more of a concern.  =D
"Rev, your picture is in my King James Bible, where Paul talks about "inventors of evil."  Yes, I know you'll take that as a compliment."  - Fistful, possibly highest compliment I've ever received.

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,436
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2013, 07:37:10 PM »
Carl Sagan already told them this back in the 80's.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/11/05/at-least-88-billion-earth-size-just-right-planets-found-study-says/


Good. Now how do we get the Left there? Or at least convince them to try?
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2013, 07:39:48 PM »
The "B Ark".
I promise not to duck.

erictank

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2,410
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2013, 07:47:49 AM »
If it turns out that it is not possible to breach light speed, that'd put a significant limit in the territory of even a star faring species. It's 4.2421 light years to Proxima Centauri. If we made the run at say, Helios 2 solar probe speed of 0.000234c or 43.63 mi/s, you're talking about a very long trip. Suppose magic alloys, cryogenics or force fields don't exist either. Entropy is a mean customer. A journey of hundreds or thousands of years is a very long time for nothing significant to break. 

Dr. Robert L. Forward wrote a series of books regarding a fast-sublight manned exploratory trip to Barnard's Star (6ly) via lightsail, accelerating at .1g for years and "cruising" at .2c IIRC, for a total travel time of 40 years including accel and braking; his starting point premise was, "we could start building this TOMORROW." - if I'm remembering the Author's Afterword correctly, at least. And that was back in the 80s. Now, I'm not sure if there have been the advances he posited in laser/lightsail technology (and he admitted that the No-Die drug was a literary cheat for the purposes of the story, I believe), but we HAVEN'T been working on it, which would drive tech advances.

My guess is it is a tossup between species evolve to being something beyond our comprehension, or there are limits to the physical world and folks are restricted to their neck of the universe. It's highly unlikely we're the sole organic life in the universe.

This.

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,882
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2013, 07:58:54 AM »
Hope springs eternal in the human heart.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,300
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2013, 08:28:22 AM »
If it turns out that it is not possible to breach light speed, that'd put a significant limit in the territory of even a star faring species. It's 4.2421 light years to Proxima Centauri. If we made the run at say, Helios 2 solar probe speed of 0.000234c or 43.63 mi/s, you're talking about a very long trip. Suppose magic alloys, cryogenics or force fields don't exist either. Entropy is a mean customer. A journey of hundreds or thousands of years is a very long time for nothing significant to break. 

It would certainly argue against the use of most known compounds of plastic and rubber ...
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

Firethorn

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,789
  • Where'd my explosive space modulator go?
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2013, 08:59:26 AM »
Or you build a big mass-driver and fire solar-sail "seeds" with just enough bootstrap robotics to build a mass-driver in the next star-system. Even at 10% of c or less, it's still under a million years to cover the entire galaxy assuming an exponential "tree" of missions launched from local materials and resources.  Or maybe a hybrid mode, with ships that never brake that scatter the solar-sail robotic "seeds".

What if you figure that there's a significant delay between reaching a new solar system and eventually sending out expansions from it?  Given that the time scales involved are longer than our species has been around, the 2001 scenario of aliens evolved into incomprensability is very possible.

For that matter, it's possible that Earth-type planets are considered nature reserves/new species generation points, we might eventually emerge from our solar system only to find out that we have a ~200 ly radius reserved just for us, but by the time we've expanded into it 'humanity' has become something that's completely divorced from Class-M life bearing planets into one that lives in space voluntarily and thinks being stuck in a gravity well a horrible fate.

Tallpine

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 23,172
  • Grumpy Old Grandpa
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2013, 10:30:12 AM »
It would certainly argue against the use of most known compounds of plastic and rubber ...
Just use that plastic that they make garbage bags and those six-pack rings out of.

That stuff is supposed to last 500 years  ;)

Quote
by the time we've expanded into it 'humanity' has become something that's completely divorced from Class-M life bearing planets into one that lives in space voluntarily and thinks being stuck in a gravity well a horrible fate.
I followed that line of thinking myself a while back, and I came up with creatures with big heads and small bodies and limbs for living in microgravity (IOW, little grey men  =|  :O ).
Freedom is a heavy load, a great and strange burden for the spirit to undertake. It is not easy. It is not a gift given, but a choice made, and the choice may be a hard one. The road goes upward toward the light; but the laden traveller may never reach the end of it.  - Ursula Le Guin

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2013, 10:37:20 AM »
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Scout26

  • I'm a leaf on the wind.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 25,997
  • I spent a week in that town one night....
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
I agree with Calvin:

Quote
Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2013, 11:12:06 AM »
What if you figure that there's a significant delay between reaching a new solar system and eventually sending out expansions from it?  Given that the time scales involved are longer than our species has been around, the 2001 scenario of aliens evolved into incomprensability is very possible.


Even if it takes a few thousand years, or tens of thousands for a "seed" or Von Neuman probe to start mining asteroids as long as it sends off n ≥ 2 more ships, it may start off slow, but once that exponential doubling gets going you've got 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, 1634 probes etc. cruising the galaxy.  =)

Which could actually be why no intelligent species actually does this. A Von Neuman probe that didn't self-limit somehow, or "mutated" so it replicated uncontrollably could theoretically consume all suitable materials in the galaxy until there was nothing left but black holes, stars too hot or violent to "cut up for resources" and probes..  [tinfoil]

I followed that line of thinking myself a while back, and I came up with creatures with big heads and small bodies and limbs for living in microgravity (IOW, little grey men  =|  :O ).

Well, if that's how they want to see themselves in the digital simulation being carried on the 10 Petabyte chip that weighs 1oz being carried by the solar sail to the next star system.

I'm guessing Tron-suits, furries, historical figures, and some really bat-**** crazy avatars will also be popular too.  =)
« Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 11:23:42 AM by AJ Dual »
I promise not to duck.

Sergeant Bob

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,861
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2013, 11:13:01 AM »
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,882
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2013, 11:03:30 AM »
http://youtu.be/xjBIsp8mS-c

Reminds me of a quote I pulled from a recent book I've read:

Our comforting conviction that the world (universe) makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

DustinD

  • I have a title
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 919
  • I have a personal text message
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2013, 09:16:09 PM »
Quote
Speeding up isn't the problem. Slowing down on the other side is more of a concern.
A big magnetic ring brake could do it. The faster you go, the better it works.
"I don't always shoot defenceless women in the face, but when I do, I prefer H-S Precision.

Stay bloodthirsty, my friends."

                       - Lon Horiuchi

grampster

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 9,453
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2013, 09:47:04 PM »
The fact that Santa can deliver toys to all the children on earth during one earth period of darkness completely destroys all of the mathematical nonsense in the preceding posts.  Besides, I've been on one of those ships and time and space is meaningless.  It is called Teeping for those of you in Mississippi.
"Never wrestle with a pig.  You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."  G.B. Shaw

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2013, 10:22:51 PM »
A big magnetic ring brake could do it. The faster you go, the better it works.

Yes, it was quite lulzy when I read those who made the case that a Bussard ramjet would actually be a good braking system for an interstellar vehicle, rather than actual propulsion.  =D
I promise not to duck.

Firethorn

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,789
  • Where'd my explosive space modulator go?
Re: Billions and Billions!!
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2013, 01:21:50 AM »
Even if it takes a few thousand years, or tens of thousands for a "seed" or Von Neuman probe to start mining asteroids as long as it sends off n ≥ 2 more ships, it may start off slow, but once that exponential doubling gets going you've got 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, 1634 probes etc. cruising the galaxy.  =

Which could actually be why no intelligent species actually does this. A Von Neuman probe that didn't self-limit somehow, or "mutated" so it replicated uncontrollably could theoretically consume all suitable materials in the galaxy until there was nothing left but black holes, stars too hot or violent to "cut up for resources" and probes..  [tinfoil]

The way things are going, any 'von neuman' system vigourous enough to survive the conditions will likely look a lot like 'life', and intelligent life at that.  Consider that various species already construct shelters for themselves, from simple burrows to extruded and patched together shells.  Humans are just very good at it today.

Then consider how much information we can pull from telescopes today, our short-sightedness in that most of us aren't really interested in sending out probes that have a good chance of not working and that the information from them won't get back during our lives, it'd be our grandkids, if not later generations, to do the interpritation.  So you're probably looking at generation ships, people who want to leave, and where leaving means 'leave the solar system', not 'move to the moon, mars, orbital, Europa, etc...'  The cost of leaving the solar system is so high that from a practical standpoint that you'd always have a higher standard of living for more people by NOT spending the resources leaving. 

Then figure that, going by what I've heard about finding planets that are somewhere around mars-earth in properties, you're looking at an average of more than 100 ly between them.  Consider that the fastest probe to date is the Voyager 1, reaching a blistering .0057% of the speed of light.  It would take 1.7M years to reach 100 ly from the solar system.  That's more time than most mammal species have been around!  While we can certainly propel things faster today, I'd point out that the mass necessary for a colony ship would be many, many orders of magnitude higher and voyager 1 was shot out more of a goal of 'as fast as possible' rather than a specific extra-solar destination.  As a result, I'd think that a colony ship would tend to be restricted to closer destinations - and that means going to solar systems without earth-type planets, then you figure the time necessary for the colony to set up and generate 'people' disgruntled enough that the solar system isn't big enough to contain them. 

Quote
Well, if that's how they want to see themselves in the digital simulation being carried on the 10 Petabyte chip that weighs 1oz being carried by the solar sail to the next star system.

And such a civilization would, in my mind, be more interested in the 'new' than taking over some muddy planet.  Seeing our planet evolve would probably be like some grand science experiment.