Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Balog on November 07, 2009, 02:07:05 AM
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This is literally the highest unemployment rate since I was born. Glad I still have a job.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_economy
By JEANNINE AVERSA and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writers Jeannine Aversa And Christopher S. Rugaber, Ap Economics Writers – Fri Nov 6, 6:39 pm ET
WASHINGTON – Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.
The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.
President Barack Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.
Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.
Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.
"It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."
The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.
The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.
One struggling small business, homebuilder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs.
Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.
And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.
Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.
Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.
Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year.
"This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the recession is over.
"It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier."
The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes.
Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600 a month in unemployment benefits, barely enough for the rent for his efficiency apartment, food and utilities.
He has trouble believing the recession is over. In his neighborhood, he sees other jobless people and empty stores.
"It's as if they just gave the economy a nice coat of varnish to make everyone feel better," he said. "I'm in a state of anxiety, and I see it all around Miami."
The worst recession since the 1930s may be over, but the recovery isn't expected to be strong enough to stem job losses and get businesses hiring again. And the unemployed are staying out of work longer. The count of people jobless for six months or longer stands at a record 5.6 million.
As for employers, few are confident enough in the recovery to hire. Art McKeen, plant manager of the Baldor Electric Co. factory in suburban St. Louis, says the plant has no plans add workers any time soon.
Baldor cut back production last year and put workers on part-time hours rather than lay them off. Orders have picked up again, but not enough to justify hiring. "We don't have the need for them right now," McKeen said.
Prospects that the government might pass a second stimulus bill appear dim. Congress is already grappling with sweeping health care legislation, raising concerns about further swelling the federal deficit.
"More debt, more spending ... clearly has not worked — particularly in a time of double-digit unemployment," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Democrats said the economy would have been in worse shape without the first stimulus.
October was the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs, the longest on record dating back 70 years. Losses at factories, construction companies, retailers and financial services companies far outweighed gains in education and health care, professional and business services and elsewhere. Government payrolls were flat.
One faint sign of hope: Temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, its third straight month of gains after steep losses earlier this year. Employers are likely to add temporary workers before hiring permanent ones.
Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the big jump in the jobless rate "a kick in the stomach" and predicted a slog ahead. It could take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent.
"The last two recoveries from recession in the '90s and 2001 were jobless, and this one is clearly headed down the same road," he said.
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Associated Press Writers Jim Kuhnhenn and Anne Flaherty in Washington, Emily Fredrix in Milwaukee, Christopher Leonard in St. Louis, Adrian Sainz in Miami, Andrew Vanacore in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.
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It will get worse before it gets better. A lot worse.
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It will get worse before it gets better. A lot worse.
Yeah, I'm getting worried about societal upheavals if this keeps up. An apartment complex is not a great place to be during a riot. =|
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Give me the tin foil hat smiley if you will, but I am not yet convinced it will get better at all. I'm sure many Roman thought things would eventually start improving.
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"What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."
What is a jobless recovery?
FWIW, you can't blame me for the unemployment numbers, as I am finally out of that category.
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What the numbers don't show you are how many independent small business owners are going under. It's a LOT. I'm barely hanging on myself. All that number is is how many are collecting unemployment benefits. The fed really screwed the pooch with the credit card legislation. The cards are now screwing everybody they can in anticipation of being reigned in. Nobody will spend because nobody is using their card anymore, have cut down to the bare necessities and are a little worried whether they can keep up with that. Christmas spending? I don't think so.
MY business has suffered because other small businesses have gone out. That is the bulk of my customer base. Small businesses. Some that were customers for years. Once heat season dies off here I'm not seeing that there will be any light at the end of the long winter tunnel. Going to talk to a bankruptcy lawyer tuesday as a matter of fact. Just to get some info at this point though. My thought is, if these cards want to play fiddley eff with me why can't I fiddley eff them back and not pay their sorry asses. So I don't have a good credit score anymore. Big deal(?)
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I still have a job (for now), but it's pretty bad over here as well. I'm not sure what the (official) unemployment rates are over here, but I'd figure at double digits nowadays, with plenty of people hidden in the statistics in various ways.
I'm getting laid off next year though, sometime after the 16th of March.
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Enter CIT bankruptcy and Obama's promised refusal to bail it out. Small business has a set of cross hairs centered on a vital spot.
Back to unemployment: John Williams has followed and tracked gov't official statistics for a good while. He specializes in comparative statistics across changes in calculations over the years in gov't statistics. He concludes the real unemployment rate is a good bit higher than current headlines and that the rate will significantly increase into next year.
http://vodpod.com/watch/1366147-economist-john-williams-on-real-unemployment-rate
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This is literally the highest unemployment rate since I was born.
It was over 35% when I left upper Michigan in 1980—but I won't start in on that Carter creature.
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But...but...what about the millions of jobs Obama saved or created? ;/
This is a fine time to be in retail. Sales are really down for me the last several weeks. They're even slower than in July, which is the slow time of year for anything on the internet.
My BIL is having to cut his plumbers/HVAC guys' hours down to practically nothing. My wife may get her hours cut to three days a week.
If the #%*% government had kept its hands off the markets, this recession would be recovering normally. Instead they spooked business with the massive spending and borrowing, and now they've spooked the consumers.
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To the unemployment rate you have to factor in under employment. That is folks who are working below their skill level. Engineers working as taxi drivers or IT types working a Kinkos and so forth.
For some reason my company is getting more orders. And we are a luxury service, nobody needs (well, maybe a few shut-ins) what we provide.
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To the unemployment rate you have to factor in under employment. That is folks who are working below their skill level. Engineers working as taxi drivers or IT types working a Kinkos and so forth.
A&P mechanics working the register at Hobby Lobby. =|
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Enter CIT bankruptcy and Obama's promised refusal to bail it out. Small business has a set of cross hairs centered on a vital spot.
Yup. CIT has the potential to seriously mess up holiday retail sales for many merchants. It's a great time to be a time to be a business owner.
=|
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Enter CIT bankruptcy and Obama's promised refusal to bail it out. Small business has a set of cross hairs centered on a vital spot.
The leftists are going in for the killshot on the economy. Bet on it. They are doing everything they can to insure that it won't and can't recover. From squandering money on meaningless "recovery" programs to hanging albatrosses around the neck (i.e., healthcare), they are doing it all.
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Things like this make me glad I'm A. in one of the most recession proof industries & B. learning a trade. Still have my Class A CDL too. Worse comes to worst I can always goto school and live off my GI Bill + VA disability + odd jobs as a handyman/electrician.
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Things like this make me glad I'm A. in one of the most recession proof industries & B. learning a trade. Still have my Class A CDL too. Worse comes to worst I can always goto school and live off my GI Bill + VA disability + odd jobs as a handyman/electrician.
Class A CDL won't do you any good. The truck driving industry is flooded, too, and with cargo to move down...well, you get the picture...
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Class A CDL won't do you any good. The truck driving industry is flooded, too, and with cargo to move down...well, you get the picture...
Certainly doesn't hurt, but yeah I get your point. Bus drivers are always hiring around here tho... I have all my certs 'cept hazmat too, so that's good.
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It's not unemployment it FUNemployment!
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I've been seeing stories in the newspaper about the positive sides of being unemployed, things like spending time with family, having a less stress, and not polluting the environment as much because you don't need to commute any more.
It almost seems like they don't want people to be bothered by the fact that they can't take care of themselves and their families.
=|
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I've never collected unemployment, and I have no idea how someone could get by on so little. I made more money working 32 hours a week while in college, and I was scraping by then.
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Save a bit of money, live below your means, prioritize things right. You'd be amazed how little money you actually need to spend just to get by.
Most people get into trouble by placing themselves in circumstances that require them to pay far all sorts of stuff that they probably shouldn't.
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I've never collected unemployment, and I have no idea how someone could get by on so little. I made more money working 32 hours a week while in college, and I was scraping by then.
I just started collecting unemployment this week and I have more money coming in per month from my unemployment benefits than I was spending (per month) before I got laid off. I'm actually not sure what I'm going to do with the extra money, it feels weird to put it into savings or retirement...
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It should feel weirder to live on welfare.
=|
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I've been seeing stories in the newspaper about the positive sides of being unemployed, things like spending time with family, having a less stress, and not polluting the environment as much because you don't need to commute any more.
It almost seems like they don't want people to be bothered by the fact that they can't take care of themselves and their families.
=|
I dread being laid off. I'll do alright, materially, but it will SUCK. It will be BORING. Not that my current job is any fun, but it provides something to do...
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I have never been unwillingly unemployed for more than a week, if I count cheesy temp jobs.
The first thing I would do when seeking new work would be to get a part-time temp job, just to be working, because it was good for my psyche. Unwillingly not working drives me up a wall.
As such, I have yet to collect unemployment, though I bet some of hte temp jobs I worked provided less.
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It should feel weirder to live on welfare.
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Unemployment ≠ Welfare
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I've never drawn unemployment. Always had a moral objection to the state taking money from productive people and giving it to me just cause. Now that fed.gov is taking so much more of my money I find the idea of getting some of what I've paid back less objectionable. I'd prefer we had nothing of course, but when the thief offers you some of what's been stolen back... =|
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Unemployment ≠ Welfare
There's a lot of effort expended to help people rationalize being on the government dole. Unemployment is actually insurance, Social Security is actually a trust, and so forth. None of this is true, of course. In the end, you're living off of other people's money, money that was taken from them and given to you. Renaming the program won't change that. It may help you sleep at night, but only if you don't think very hard about what's happening.
Myself, I prefer to call a spade a spade. Unemployment = welfare.
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I have never been unwillingly unemployed for more than a week, if I count cheesy temp jobs.
The first thing I would do when seeking new work would be to get a part-time temp job, just to be working, because it was good for my psyche. Unwillingly not working drives me up a wall.
As such, I have yet to collect unemployment, though I bet some of hte temp jobs I worked provided less.
Trust me, since I know I'll be getting laid off, I'm looking like crazy. Only problem is that I don't have much (read: anything really) in the way of qualifications. Nothing that I have paper on atleast. I've found one or two jobs (nowhere near me though) in basic construction and rising scaffolding and similar that didn't require any qualifications besides eagerness to work hard. I know I can build scaffolding atleast, and I could probably hammer nails without hitting my thumb too much. =)
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There's a lot of effort expended to help people rationalize being on the government dole. Unemployment is actually insurance, Social Security is actually a trust, and so forth. None of this is true, of course. In the end, you're living off of other people's money, money that was taken from them and given to you. Renaming the program won't change that. It may help you sleep at night, but only if you don't think very hard about what's happening.
Myself, I prefer to call a spade a spade. Unemployment = welfare.
Let's see...Money taken from you in some fashion, put into a fund to be paid out at a later date should you become unemployed. Yup, sounds like welfare...:rolleyes:
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how is unemployment mone taken from you? isn't it paid by employers?
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If your employer pays into the fund, then it is money taken indirectly from you inasmuch as that money might have gone to you in salary if it were not being paid into the fund.
If I am not mistaken, in some states there is an unemployment insurance deduction taken directly from an employee's pay check, much like any other tax.
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Let's see...Money taken from you in some fashion, put into a fund to be paid out at a later date should you become unemployed. Yup, sounds like welfare...
As an "employer," I've paid thousands of dollars into the unemployment compensation fund, although as the owner of the business I can never collect a dime. So, people who are getting unemployment are taking money from me.
Come on over and mow my lawn. ;)
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If I am not mistaken, in some states there is an unemployment insurance deduction taken directly from an employee's pay check, much like any other tax.
i've heard that too but never seen it. ussually when i hear it its from someone who is collecting unemployment and is justifying it with "i paid into it for x number of years."
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C&SD, I am currently employed, not on unemployment. This particular stint of employment has lasted almost six years. Hopefully that will continue.
If you pay into an unemployment insurance fund for 'x' number of years, should you not expect to reap some benefit from it should you become unemployed? What is the point of it all, otherwise?
Again, unemployment insurance does not equal welfare. Different programs, different funding sources, wholly different intentions behind them. This "any government payment is welfare" mentality is...dumb.
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There's a lot of effort expended to help people rationalize being on the government dole. Unemployment is actually insurance, Social Security is actually a trust, and so forth. None of this is true, of course. In the end, you're living off of other people's money, money that was taken from them and given to you. Renaming the program won't change that. It may help you sleep at night, but only if you don't think very hard about what's happening.
Myself, I prefer to call a spade a spade. Unemployment = welfare.
Gawd, I'd hate to hear what he calls my military pension...
I'm not even gonna wait for that.