Author Topic: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?  (Read 10131 times)

cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #25 on: September 09, 2012, 07:00:40 PM »
If the Chinese employed either measure, wouldn't that be pretty hard on them, too?

yes  on the people
the leader?  not so much
ask yourself how much they care about the people
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/world/asia/china-killing/index.html
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130158&page=1#.UE0fYa6k-aQ

western folk have a hard time thinking like asians do
It is much more powerful to seek Truth for one's self.  Seeing and hearing that others seem to have found it can be a motivation.  With me, I was drawn because of much error and bad judgment on my part. Confronting one's own errors and bad judgment is a very life altering situation.  Confronting the errors and bad judgment of others is usually hypocrisy.


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drewtam

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #26 on: September 09, 2012, 07:01:47 PM »
Strong economic ties has not stopped major wars in the past. When ideology, religion and nationalist causes are strong in the minds of the people, economics takes a back seat.
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Tallpine

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #27 on: September 09, 2012, 07:03:09 PM »

Actually....  "If you invade Taiwan we will void any U.S. debt instruments you hold."

How's that for grabbing short-n-curlies?

Would that be our default position  ???

 =|


 =D
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #28 on: September 09, 2012, 07:07:32 PM »
yes  on the people
the leader?  not so much
ask yourself how much they care about the people
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/world/asia/china-killing/index.html
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130158&page=1#.UE0fYa6k-aQ

western folk have a hard time thinking like asians do


Yes, we do. But I was presuming the leaders want to keep making money.
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longeyes

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #29 on: September 09, 2012, 07:24:49 PM »
Tariffs, debt default.  Drop the sabers.
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kgbsquirrel

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #30 on: September 09, 2012, 07:48:00 PM »
And then the full faith and credit of the US on the world financial markets disappears.  And we cannot survive in isolation of the world markets.

Possibly to the first, and arguable to the second.

To the first, I say possibly, because it would be an overt act due to a declared cause, not just the US gov going tango uniform and defaulting on its debt, like say Greece.


Would that be our default position  ???

 =|


 =D

*groan*  :lol:

RevDisk

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #31 on: September 09, 2012, 10:12:55 PM »
And I still wonder about cyber and economic warfare between China and the US having more of a negative economic impact on us than a localized shooting war.

Not that I can tell too much...  But that is already happening. PRC is our greatest intel threat, and we catch their agents on a regular basis. Israel being the second most active intel threat. Most of it is espionage. Lot of it specializing in aircraft and nuclear tech.

Ah... It is not one direction... And we have a lot better geeks. Draw your own conclusions.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #32 on: September 09, 2012, 11:53:28 PM »
America and China have each other by the short-n-curlies in quite the death grip.

The price of letting go, or pulling harder... is too high for America to pay. Although China has much more to lose. America catches cold, China gets the flu etc.

Behind closed doors, both sides know the truth. And IMO, "status quo" for the foreseeable future is what I'd place my money on. With economic collapse, and the Chinese real-estate/banking bubble making the American one look like just a bad week, a close second.
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seeker_two

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #33 on: September 10, 2012, 07:47:15 AM »
I don't see us going directly into war with China.....

.....but I could see a few supercargo ships full of high-tech weaponry being "abandoned" in Taiwan's main harbor.....at the same time that some non-gov't connected "contractors" who can train others happen to be vacationing there.... ;)

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agricola

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #34 on: September 10, 2012, 10:15:07 AM »
With economic collapse, and the Chinese real-estate/banking bubble making the American one look like just a bad week, a close second.

This is something that cannot be overstated, they are in an incredibly dangerous position given what has happening at home, the rampant corruption that infects everything, the leftover politican fun of communism with its day-long murder "trials", the lack of any kind of force projection to protect these assets they are buying up around the globe, and the incentive that nearly everyone else in the world has to default.

 
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RevDisk

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #35 on: September 10, 2012, 10:37:00 AM »
This is something that cannot be overstated, they are in an incredibly dangerous position given what has happening at home, the rampant corruption that infects everything, the leftover politican fun of communism with its day-long murder "trials", the lack of any kind of force projection to protect these assets they are buying up around the globe, and the incentive that nearly everyone else in the world has to default.

From what I've read, the PRC government does stick its fingers in many pies. But I honestly doubt they care about world domination.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/mark-kitto-youll-never-be-chinese-leaving-china/

A xenophobic government might attack its neighbors and conquer them. But they tend not to Imperialistic World Super Power state like the Romans, Mongols, Byzantines, British, Ottomans, etc. You need to be pretty accepting of the local wogs. Sure, you also need to believe YOU are superior to everyone else in the world, but you need a pretty flexible system in order to accommodate the local cultures in all the random places your Empire takes. That's the mark of every successful Empire in the history of the world. Otherwise, they get smashed sooner rather than later. The exception is "kill everyone and everything, then repopulate with your own folks". Not likely to be successful these days with advances in weapons. Ask the USSR when folks with little more than rocks, spears and AKs decide not to accommodate foreign invaders.

I don't think the PRC government has the mindframe to become a political or military superpower. Too rigid, too xenophobic, too self-centered as a collective, etc. Economic superpower, perhaps. It will be interesting.

I have long suspected that the PRC is rigging their books. No one will know until long after it pops just how rigged their game is.
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agricola

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #36 on: September 10, 2012, 10:56:11 AM »
Oh I agree that they probably dont want world domination, my point was that they have all these assets scattered across the world and no obvious means to protect them.  Given how many nations - especially in the regions they have been putting money into - go in for seizures, "nationalizations" etc (and thats even when there arent civil wars) it is perhaps dangerous to have so much money out there. 

As for cooking the books, I thought that the likes of QE, the "Euro rescue packages" and the rest meant that this was what everyone was doing nowadays?
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roo_ster

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #37 on: September 10, 2012, 12:13:18 PM »
I don't intend this to become a political partisanship discussion over which future President of any party has more intestinal fortitude over the opposing party and is more likely to start launching nukes.  I have been doing some reading lately about past, current and future mainland China politics and how it impacts the future of Taiwan.  Other than treaty obligations (if any, which I have not researched), does the US have pressing political, economic, military or strategic interests in keeping Taiwan independent, up to and including another SE Asian war? 

I have been thinking about SE Asia a lot recently, especially with the posturing of various SE Asian nations over the ownership of various unoccupied islands between China, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, which are significant only insofar as they offer the possibility of oil and natural gas.  If push comes to shove, China is really the only power there with sufficient naval and airpower assets to assert its interests.

Gonna reply deliberately without reading any other responses this first go 'round...

Short answer:
0. There are no permanent allies, only permanent interests.
That said...
1. We should seek to help our allies and confound our enemies.
2. Making a habit of abandoning or mistreating allies means you'll have fewer allies.
3. Leaving Taiwan to the wolves is a good way to tell to other allies that the USA has not the stomach for serious conflict and will cost far more in the long run.  Taiwan is not some benighted conclave of bestial queer religious fanatics without two cow chips to rub together in an area of litle political and economic significance.

Han Chinese nationalism or no, the fact that it is still considered a possibility in the PRC indicates we have not kept up appearances or the reality of might.
Regards,

roo_ster

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RevDisk

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #38 on: September 10, 2012, 12:25:32 PM »
Oh I agree that they probably dont want world domination, my point was that they have all these assets scattered across the world and no obvious means to protect them.  Given how many nations - especially in the regions they have been putting money into - go in for seizures, "nationalizations" etc (and thats even when there arent civil wars) it is perhaps dangerous to have so much money out there. 

As for cooking the books, I thought that the likes of QE, the "Euro rescue packages" and the rest meant that this was what everyone was doing nowadays?

Those two points are contradicting each other. If you have assets, you have assets to protect your assets. Rest is just proper management and the necessary amount of ruthlessness.
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roo_ster

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #39 on: September 10, 2012, 12:56:58 PM »
What is this assimilation?

Is that what you call waging war and conquering your neighbor?

The question should be worded "Should the USA go to war in defense of of an ally who has been attacked by China?"

If that happened it would probably be one of the few truly unambiguously legitimate uses of our war making ability in decades.

This...instead of wasting our strength trying to civilize ignorant goatherds.



can you imagine them calling all that debt in? :facepalm:


Actually....  "If you invade Taiwan we will void any U.S. debt instruments you hold."

How's that for grabbing short-n-curlies?

And then the full faith and credit of the US on the world financial markets disappears.  And we cannot survive in isolation of the world markets.

Abrogating such debt/commercial agreements is par for the course when nation states make war.  It is a risk one takes when waging war.  Want the debt instruments from country A honored?  Don't go to war with country A.

IOW, the default/abrogation itself would not bring about a collapse of "the full faith and credit of the US."  The Han SOBs just had better be willing to take the hit.





Regards,

roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
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roo_ster

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #40 on: September 10, 2012, 01:04:03 PM »
Behind closed doors, both sides know the truth. And IMO, "status quo" for the foreseeable future is what I'd place my money on. With economic collapse, and the Chinese real-estate/banking bubble making the American one look like just a bad week, a close second.

Do not assume economic rationalism has a full seat at the Reasons To Go To War table.  Other factors have, traditionally, been much greater.

On a tangent, this highlights the lack of reality in much marxist and libertarian thought.  They both suggest folks are primarily motivated by economics, when reality shows this is not so.  Fickle human critters are fickle.

Strong economic ties has not stopped major wars in the past. When ideology, religion and nationalist causes are strong in the minds of the people, economics takes a back seat.

Yep.

western folk have a hard time thinking like asians do

This, with bells on it.  "Scratch a foreigner and you'll find an American yearning to be free."  Not so much, it turns out.
Regards,

roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
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longeyes

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #41 on: September 10, 2012, 02:02:01 PM »
We are already at war with China.  Of course a lot of Americans are and have been on the wrong side.  For decades.  "We" created the China problem, and some of us have made out very well thanks to it.
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SADShooter

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #42 on: September 10, 2012, 02:30:22 PM »
http://news.yahoo.com/japan-buy-disputed-islands-angering-china-121834666.html

Coincidentally, from AP, a story about Japanese government acquisition of islands claimed by PRC. PRC statement warns of "serious consequences" for violations of "territorial sovereignty".
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lupinus

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #43 on: September 10, 2012, 03:55:29 PM »
If China launches an actual attack and attempts to invade Taiwan, I think we are in the right to defend them. Both morally and legally.

As the the question of can we, yes and no. Do we have the military ability to do so? Yes, yes I think we do. But I also think that comes with casualty levels and commitment the US public isn't likely to accept. With a direct attack on the US maybe, but not to protect an ally.
That is all. *expletive deleted*ck you all, eat *expletive deleted*it, and die in a fire. I have considered writing here a long parting section dedicated to each poster, but I have decided, at length, against it. *expletive deleted*ck you all and Hail Satan.

cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #44 on: September 10, 2012, 04:16:15 PM »
I don't think the PRC government has the mindframe to become a political or military superpower. Too rigid, too xenophobic, too self-centered as a collective, etc. Economic superpower, perhaps. It will be interesting.


it matters less what we think.  more it matters what they think.   
therein lies the problem with westerners trying to understand asians
It is much more powerful to seek Truth for one's self.  Seeing and hearing that others seem to have found it can be a motivation.  With me, I was drawn because of much error and bad judgment on my part. Confronting one's own errors and bad judgment is a very life altering situation.  Confronting the errors and bad judgment of others is usually hypocrisy.


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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #45 on: September 10, 2012, 05:55:09 PM »
If China launches an actual attack and attempts to invade Taiwan, I think we are in the right to defend them. Both morally and legally.

As the the question of can we, yes and no. Do we have the military ability to do so? Yes, yes I think we do. But I also think that comes with casualty levels and commitment the US public isn't likely to accept. With a direct attack on the US maybe, but not to protect an ally.

Whats interesting is we're in a shifting mode.  We've built up a kick ass specops community to deal with the war on terror.  A fistfight with China would require us to pivot 180 degrees and start thinking conventional warfare again.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #46 on: September 10, 2012, 05:55:49 PM »
Oh I agree that they probably dont want world domination, my point was that they have all these assets scattered across the world and no obvious means to protect them.  Given how many nations - especially in the regions they have been putting money into - go in for seizures, "nationalizations" etc (and thats even when there arent civil wars) it is perhaps dangerous to have so much money out there.  

As for cooking the books, I thought that the likes of QE, the "Euro rescue packages" and the rest meant that this was what everyone was doing nowadays?

Oh God would I LOVE to see China get stuck in some quagmires in Africa, or have some other Red/Left leaning state, maybe Venezuela go full-retard on them and nationalize a bunch of their interests.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/12/venezuelan-oil-a-risky-investment-for-china/?page=all

The ONE thing I do understand well enough about non-Westernized Asians is that they don't take well to loss of face, or insults to honor. Well, I guess their ability to engage in force projection in Venezuela is even less than it is on America's Western coast. However, some of those places in Africa where they're "on the ground" and have large amounts of Chinese workers living in dorms etc...

Whats interesting is we're in a shifting mode.  We've built up a kick ass specops community to deal with the war on terror.  A fistfight with China would require us to pivot 180 degrees and start thinking conventional warfare again.


Or perhaps the most pragmatic, get a POTUS in office and an Exec branch willing to PO the Mainland Chinese by selling Taiwan all the arms they're willing to buy. Get a level of MAD going, so we don't have to step in.
I promise not to duck.

roo_ster

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #47 on: September 10, 2012, 06:08:52 PM »
Or perhaps the most pragmatic, get a POTUS in office and an Exec branch willing to PO the Mainland Chinese by selling Taiwan all the arms they're willing to buy. Get a level of MAD going, so we don't have to step in.

This.  And toss in theater-level anti-missile defense for fun.
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lupinus

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #48 on: September 10, 2012, 06:21:12 PM »
Whats interesting is we're in a shifting mode.  We've built up a kick ass specops community to deal with the war on terror.  A fistfight with China would require us to pivot 180 degrees and start thinking conventional warfare again.

Indeed we would. And it would be another example that those who claim there wont be another large scale war, as soon as we finish one, are idiots.
That is all. *expletive deleted*ck you all, eat *expletive deleted*it, and die in a fire. I have considered writing here a long parting section dedicated to each poster, but I have decided, at length, against it. *expletive deleted*ck you all and Hail Satan.

just Warren

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Re: Should the US go to war to prevent the assimilation of Taiwan into the PRC?
« Reply #49 on: September 10, 2012, 06:41:46 PM »
There is no way this would end well for either country or whatever allies each has.

If China wins, what they've done is swallow an area that will be very restless and is highly capitalistic. Those features are going to be absorbed into China's bloodstream and will simply accelerate the change that is already occurring. A change that likely will have no place for those currently at the top.

If we win, it will be at great cost perhaps to the point of so weakening the armed forces that it would be impossible to maintain the commitments they have now. Which would lead to a general collapse of those commitments. Sort of a "domino effect".

To win might require a war-time economy* and so add in more years of a lack of a real recovery. Not to mention that if it goes poorly, there will be calls to re-introduce the draft which will mean many productive people having their energies effectively wasted on un-economic goods if not killed outright. Also taxes will likely go up. So the economy will tank hard and long. And afterwords how long will it take to recover?

Add in the possible threat of nuclear response and no one wins.







*Of course Krugman and the Keynesian idiot brigades will be salivating (Spending! Full employment! Yea!) over such a thing because they have no idea how economies actually work. So you might find them in the forefront of any pro-war agitation. 
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