Sabre Rattlin' and Nucs!

[Werewolf]

Sabre Rattling or the real deal?

N. Korea, ruled by a man many consider to be mad and who may be standing at death's door and thus has little to lose, might very well act on recent threats. That is not outside the realm of possibilities - though some living in a world of pink skies and blue bunnies could never believe so.

What if as a result of harsher sanctions, stopping and searching its ships at sea, skirmishes with it's naval vessels N. Korea retaliated by launching a Nuc and hit Japan or Seoul, S. Korea with it?

How would the world react? Aggressively? Passively? Stand by shocked and frozen in fear? Frozen with fear seems most likely to me.

IMO I don't think a single nation would do anything but stand around with its thumb up its ass wailing away and crying barrels full of tears about how evil the NK's are. Add a few sanctions - really - NK launched a Nuke for doing that? Invade them? Really? NK launched a Nuke for less.

What could the world realisticaly do to reign in the NK's if they turn out to be insane enough to actually act on their implied threats (after all that's exactly what those nuclear tests and those missile tests are).

Inquiring minds want to know.
Let your imaginations go.

[CNYCacher]

it is my hope that the world would turn Kim Jong Il's immediate vicinity into a crater.

[SADShooter]

Charles Cabbagehammer, I mean Krauthammer (I just love writing Cabbagehammer, must be my inner Gallagher) observed that the only practical deterrents to Nork nukes are U.S. missile defense and a nuclear-armed Japan. Outside those two reactions, or realization by China that its pet is off-leash and poses imminent catastrophic threat to China herself, world response will be doodly-squat.

[makattak]

Charles Cabbagehammer, I mean Krauthammer (I just love writing Cabbagehammer, must be my inner Gallagher) observed that the only practical deterrents to Nork nukes are U.S. missile defense and a nuclear-armed Japan. Outside those two reactions, or realization by China that its pet is off-leash and poses imminent catastrophic threat to China herself, world response will be doodly-squat.

Yep. I think our response should be:

Beef up missile defense.

Remove ALL military restrictions on Japan.

That'll get China's attention, too.

[Werewolf]

it is my hope that the world would turn Kim Jong Il's immediate vicinity into a crater.

Now now Cacher: That's a purely emotional response predicated on a probable dislike for everything NK stands for and not the result of any careful analysis.

Let us take a more reasoned and rational approach and imagine realistic ways that the world could respond to NK nuking Japan or S. Korea lest we attract the wrath of the mods.

Aside:Sometimes a purely emotional response to evil can be a good thing.   

[Scout26]

Well, right now, the current US administration/UN response has been to threaten more sanctions.  Hmmm, let's see the Nork's only trade with China and even then it's bupkis.  We've also threatened to make really unhappy faces for much longer then we've done in the past, along with the tapping of the toe, and putting our hands on our hips.

If I was  POTUS, I would go on TV and say:

"Kim Jong Il, There are four wings of nuclear armed B-52's, B-1's and B-2's at Failsafe postions just outside your airspace,  I've also retargeted half of our Minutemen missles and 1/3 of our Boomers on your pissant country.  

DO I have your attention NOW ??  
Good.

Here's the deal.  Stop with the missles and you will dismantle the nuke program with US inspectiors watching.  In return, we'll send you food and oil, so your people can stop eating dirt and bugs while living like cavemen.

With this broadcast those bombers now have the GO order,and Land and Sub based Missles will launch upon the first detonation of the Air dropped nukes.  Kim Jong Il, the clock is running.....call me."  

Yes, I am in a pissy mood today, why do you ask ??

[AZRedhawk44]

Is anything particularly nasty brewing in Congress right now?

Reason I ask, is NK and Iran tend to derail media focus from Congress whenever something icky and socialist slimes its way out.

I call red herring on this, and I'm on the watch for crap from Mordor on the Potomac.

[SADShooter]

I think this timimg has more to do with pushing the new "untested" President than concealing Congressional shenanigans. I'm more paranoid than the next guy, I just can't see coordination with Kim Jong Ill and Imasneezenoise.

[seeker_two]

If NK launches a nuke at any US ally, I'd expect China to be the one retaliating....China considers US trade a lot more important than supporting NK....and China doesn't want Japan or SK to get nukes....

[FTA84]

We should just let China liberate North Korea.

[Standing Wolf]

The famous war on terror should have been an Air Force mission on September 12, 2001. North Korea wouldn't be a problem today. Thousands of American soldiers would still be alive.

[Lennyjoe]

Stop with the missles and you will dismantle the nuke program with US inspectiors watching.  In return, we'll send you food and oil, so your people can stop eating dirt and bugs while living like cavemen

I think we've been there and done that.  Wasn't that Clinton's line?

I say unlock the cuffs on Japan.  We should draw the line in the sand and tell them that they must comply by XX-XXX-XX date or get bombed back to the stone age.  If nothing happens then bomb the *expletive deleted*it out of them 2 weeks before the deadline. 

Maybe I should get back into military service shape.  Think I'll start working out some more.  Might end up getting called back from retirement should the proverbial skat hit the fan.

[Waitone]

China is in the perfect position to control NK.  Most of the food and virtually all the energy NK consumes comes from the Chinese.  China plays nice because NK is a thorn in the US' foot and because China does not want a couple of million NK's seek the promised land to the west.

That said, what makes the Korea mess so dangerous is the insane amount of arms and military all within arm's length of each other.  Seoul SK is a city of 14 million people within arty range of NK forces.  Evidently the ten pound military brains have not come up with a viable strategy of protecting Seoul because the population is so large and geography is so limited.  Analysis I've read says the region could erupt in the mother of all conflicts on really short order

[RaspberrySurprise]

...a nuclear-armed Japan.

Probably never gonna happen. Nukes are super bad Juju in Japan.

[vaskidmark]

We should draw the line in the sand and tell them that they must comply by XX-XXX-XX date or get bombed back to the stone age. 

And how would that be different from their current situation?

I do not see TOTUS doing anything that looks like sabre-rattling.  The best he might do is have the plane lift off as soon as the Secretary of State's feet hit the tarmac.  The UN might call us on that, saying it was either a WMD or torture.

What if we preemptively surrendered to them?  The UN would be pleased, and when they had to assume our debt load on top of their own the whole house of cards would come crashing down.

Given how thinly ground troops are already stretched, the only response has to be air-expressed in.  Doing so opens up too many boxes labled Pandora's Hideous Nightmare #x through #x+y, all ending with the USA being shunned by everybody.

What's the use of being a superpower if you can't get away with incinerating some punk country like PDRNK?  (Not a rhetorical question any more.)

stay safe.

skidmark

[CNYCacher]

I didn't say I hope we nuke NK, I just hope that if KJI goes off his rocker with nukes that somebody drops something on his head.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

From what (little) I've seen, NK has nothing to gain by destroying its nuke program. They have years worth of blackmail by being members of the nuclear club.
"We need money to keep our nuclear sites secure. You wouldn't want any of that stuff falling into the hands of terrorists, would you?" Or they might need cash/goods to keep the current regime in power - replacement leadership might not be quite so 'reasonable'. Endless possibilities.
Threats of nuking NK if they don't disarm? We have something like 25,000 troops in S. Korea, right? They don't need missiles that reach L.A. to rack up a high body count of Americans. While some US presidents might be willing to let our allies to eat a nuke or three, they'd probably reconsider letting our own people get hit. After all, as a nation we're scared of nuclear power plants. Nuclear weapons are far beyond that.

[MicroBalrog]

Remove ALL military restrictions on Japan.

Aren't these supported largely by Japan's own people, too?

I remeber Japan got itself some new planes at one point and it was very controversial for the Japanese because it was scratching the roof of what they're supposed to have.

[SADShooter]

I fully comprehend Japanese loathing of offensive capability, particularly nukes. If the alternative is a very real prospect of national annihilation, however, might that alter their attitude? If not, so be it, but from a globalist "don't annoy our so-called allies" perspective, Japanese self-defense/retaliation posture seems a better choice than "another act of arrogant American provocation", realizing that if KJI winds up dead surrounded by glowing ashes, the net effect is the same.

[AZRedhawk44]

Japan's situation is an anomaly of history and one that will eventually be rectified.  The Japanese people themselves have tried several referendums to alter their constitution to allow them more offensive weaponry, and it largely fails due to long memories of the elderly.  Give them another 10-20 years, and the demographics will have lost the living history of WWII, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and SCAP.

VASkidmark:  What's TOTUS?

[Werewolf]

Probably never gonna happen. Nukes are super bad Juju in Japan.

Historically - yes.

But the Japanese are a considerably pragmatic people IMO. They have the scientific, engineering and economic capability to go nuclear anytime they want and if it becomes apparent that the best way to keep the NK's in check and to keep them from nuking Japan is to go nuclear themselves then I imagine they'll do it.

[MicroBalrog]

VASkidmark:  What's TOTUS?

http://baracksteleprompter.blogspot.com/

[slingshot]

At this point, I don't know what good further sanctions on North Korea will do.  As mentioned, they are largely supported (substance level is my impression) by China and that will likely continue.  I heard today on the news that China has reduced the flow of oil into North Korea for the second time since 2006.  I am hoping that it is in China's best interests to put a stop to this.  North Korea has got the nukes now, thye are working on delivery systems and more than likely miniturazation.  For now, I think North Korea's offensive nuclear ability is pretty much load the thing up in a truck or ship, deliver it, and detenate it.  There main capability is probably the Star Trek equivalent of self destruct.   

[longeyes]

The Japanese don't have 10 to 20 years to think about how to effectively defend themselves.  This world's moving way, way too fast.

China is the key to stopping NK, but we have too many people in high places who either won't or can't get China to do what is in this nation's and the world's interest.  They view China, like Saudi Arabia, as just another vast cash machine.

[castle key]

General Curtis Lemay.......