Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: dogmush on June 13, 2019, 01:10:02 PM
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Two tankers were attacked somehow (either mines or torpedoes) in the mid east today. They were outside the Straights of Hormuz, so not in the Persian Gulf, but adjacent.
If Iran is betting that Trump won't fire up a Middle East war and they can blow stuff up, they're making a risky bet, IMO.
In any case between this and the fires on tankers in port a couple weeks ago, someone's getting frisky in the mid east.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/oil-tankers-attacked-in-gulf-of-oman-us-navy-says/2019/06/13/d59b784c-8db0-11e9-b162-8f6f41ec3c04_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c860cd5d004b
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Very interesting if the ships were hit by torpedoes, which implies an active attack, as opposed to a more passive attack by a random mine.
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Very interesting if the ships were hit by torpedoes, which implies an active attack, as opposed to a more passive attack by a random mine.
The mines suspected are limpet mines, not tethered ones.
So either way those specific ships were very likely the targets.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/oil-tankers-attacked-in-gulf-of-oman-us-navy-says/2019/06/13/d59b784c-8db0-11e9-b162-8f6f41ec3c04_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c860cd5d004b
Paywall ...
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Just filled up at Costco. Everyone else's price jumped 50 or more cents.
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Just filled up at Costco. Everyone else's price jumped 50 or more cents.
Really?
They say the "pipeline" from the well to the gas pump is around 8 weeks.
AND . . . we import little or no oil from the middle east.
If your local stations already jacked up the price substantially, it sounds like price gouging to me.
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Really?
They say the "pipeline" from the well to the gas pump is around 8 weeks.
AND . . . we import little or no oil from the middle east.
If your local stations already jacked up the price substantially, it sounds like price gouging to me.
They always jack up the price whenever someone gets a little frisky in the M.E.
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"If your local stations already jacked up the price substantially, it sounds like price gouging to me."
Why the gas stations could never be accused of price gouging. This America. We do everything fair and honest. :old:
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Just filled up at Costco. Everyone else's price jumped 50 or more cents.
Funny how the fuel in the station's storage tanks suddenly got more expensive ...
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Paywall ...
I just googled "tankers attacked" that was the third or fourth story.
Wasn't paywalled for me. Might be your browser setup.
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I just googled "tankers attacked" that was the third or fourth story.
Wasn't paywalled for me. Might be your browser setup.
It's not paywalled. If you're running an adblocker, you just have to either temporarily or permanently allow an exception for their site. On something like Adblock Plus, it's a simple two seconds of turning it off and then on again for a particular webpage.
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Funny how the fuel in the station's storage tanks suddenly got more expensive ...
And the price at the pumps doesn't go down when the price of crude drops ...
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/world/middleeast/oil-tanker-attack-gulf-oman.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Oops, the US has aerial surveillance video showing an Iranian watercraft removing a limpet mine that did not go off from the side of one of the tankers.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/world/middleeast/oil-tanker-attack-gulf-oman.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Oops, the US has aerial surveillance video showing an Iranian watercraft removing a limpet mine that did not go off from the side of one of the tankers.
If and when evidence of Iranian involvement is deemed conclusive, there are plenty of options to respond that don't require "boots on the ground."
(Hmmm . . . can we hit the Iranian parliament with precision guided munitions while it's in full session, preferably when their high mullahs are there?)
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If and when evidence of Iranian involvement is deemed conclusive, there are plenty of options to respond that don't require "boots on the ground."
(Hmmm . . . can we hit the Iranian parliament with precision guided munitions while it's in full session, preferably when their high mullahs are there?)
Give them the full Gaddafi treatment.
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I just googled "tankers attacked" that was the third or fourth story.
Wasn't paywalled for me. Might be your browser setup.
Some Paywalls are porous. Why....I couldn't guess.
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Give them the full Gaddafi treatment.
You mean kill their sons? ??? Thinking back to the Reagan days (..or was that Bush I?).
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Assuming the Iranians placed the bombs, why is the USA responding militarily?
Not our port, not our ship(s) not our oil.
I’m not a fan of any nation in the Middle East and barely care about any of our so called allies in the region.
Personally, I have no way to really ascertain who did what to whom so I’m opposed to any military action against Iran over these incidents.
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I have played this game before, we called it Operation Ernest Will (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will). I would hate to see version 2 come to be. It would be a different type of conflict this time around I am afraid.
bob
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Anyone know anything about tanker security and surveillance?
I'd expect big tankers like this to have multiple surveillance cameras to document collisions, attacks, or other incidents. I'd like to see that footage, rather than the grainy stuff the DOD has released thus far.
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Anyone know anything about tanker security and surveillance?
I'd expect big tankers like this to have multiple surveillance cameras to document collisions, attacks, or other incidents. I'd like to see that footage, rather than the grainy stuff the DOD has released thus far.
Nope.
There's a bridge recorder similar to an airplane's blackbox, and sometimes a rudimentary CCTV to supervise cargo ops, but nothing like a high def system watching the hull exists on any commercial tanker that I've seen.
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^^^I had a vision of a GoPro hanging off the front glass in the pilothouse.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/world/middleeast/oil-tanker-attack-gulf-oman.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Oops, the US has aerial surveillance video showing an Iranian watercraft removing a limpet mine that did not go off from the side of one of the tankers.
I've got a naive, un-military dumb question.
Why would they attempt to fool around with an unexploded device (UXB ?) with a boatload of people standing around in the bow real close and watching?
Seems to me if the UXB had gone off, scratch one patrol boat and a dozen or so people.
De-dumbify me, please.
Terry.
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They were removing it after the the tanker had been evacuated. To get rid of what would be called "evidence".
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What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?
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(https://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/mrz061519dAPR20190614114519.jpg)
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They were removing it after the the tanker had been evacuated. To get rid of what would be called "evidence".
I understand that, but why do they have all these people standing around in the bow in what I would assume is the blast radius while tinkering with unexploded ordnance? The only thing I could think of (later) was someone was explaining defusing and removal to the crew... but still...
I guess I'll let it go at that.
Terry
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Assuming the Iranians placed the bombs, why is the USA responding militarily?
Not our port, not our ship(s) not our oil.
I’m not a fan of any nation in the Middle East and barely care about any of our so called allies in the region.
Personally, I have no way to really ascertain who did what to whom so I’m opposed to any military action against Iran over these incidents.
Yup. Let the Japanese take care of it with their own military.
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What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?
If you try to attribute them with western style, logical thinking you're going to have trouble answering that question.
My opinion is that they are trying to goad the US into military action either to attempt to gain support from Russia, Chna and the less that US friendly Euro-trash or they want a US attack to justify their "retaliation" when they nuke Tel Aviv.
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What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?
The U.S. has successfully curtailed Iran's exports of crude oil. Their shipments are down about 75%. This is part of their revenge.
What's the price of gasoline at the pumps doing these days?
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I understand that, but why do they have all these people standing around in the bow in what I would assume is the blast radius while tinkering with unexploded ordnance? The only thing I could think of (later) was someone was explaining defusing and removal to the crew... but still...
I guess I'll let it go at that.
Terry
Inshallah if it goes boom.
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What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?
Very rough analysis of their possible goals:
Main Goal: Retaliation for sanctions and a bid for bargening power in any negotiations. The US has been saying that the increased sanctioins and curtailing of Iran's oil exports will force them back to the table on their nuke program, and do so in a supplicant role. Iran is not so subtly telling us that they can hurt our interests as far as oil as well, and are willing to do so. If they come back to any negotiations it will be with a wink and nod towards "Treat us right, we can reach out and touch oil shipping in our region".
Secondary bonuses:
* Propaganda at home. They poked the US and we're too scared to do anything about it. See how powerful they are.
* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine. This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work. If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems. Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.
* Non-US countries now know their shipping is at risk due to (predominantly) US actions. With some careful diplomacy that could be leveraged into our allies pressuring us to resolve this issue.
*Intra-mid east rivals (UAE, Oman, KSA) were shown that the IRGCN absolutely CAN strike targets both in foreign ports (last month) and in the Gulf of Oman, which is was considered to be outside their Area of Operations.
They got all of that done with an attack that has (semi) plausible deniability for diplomacy purposes, while everyone *knows* they did it. It's actually a pretty slick op.
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* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine. This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work. If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems. Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.
Thanks for that assessment. I was unaware of the above distinction. As Millcreek likes to say, I learned something new today. :)
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Very rough analysis of their possible goals:
Main Goal: Retaliation for sanctions and a bid for bargening power in any negotiations. The US has been saying that the increased sanctioins and curtailing of Iran's oil exports will force them back to the table on their nuke program, and do so in a supplicant role. Iran is not so subtly telling us that they can hurt our interests as far as oil as well, and are willing to do so. If they come back to any negotiations it will be with a wink and nod towards "Treat us right, we can reach out and touch oil shipping in our region".
Secondary bonuses:
* Propaganda at home. They poked the US and we're too scared to do anything about it. See how powerful they are.
* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine. This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work. If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems. Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.
* Non-US countries now know their shipping is at risk due to (predominantly) US actions. With some careful diplomacy that could be leveraged into our allies pressuring us to resolve this issue.
*Intra-mid east rivals (UAE, Oman, KSA) were shown that the IRGCN absolutely CAN strike targets both in foreign ports (last month) and in the Gulf of Oman, which is was considered to be outside their Area of Operations.
They got all of that done with an attack that has (semi) plausible deniability for diplomacy purposes, while everyone *knows* they did it. It's actually a pretty slick op.
That makes sense and we haven't bombed anyone back to the stone age since WWII, no real perceived US threat in the modern era.
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That makes sense and we haven't bombed anyone back to the stone age since WWII, no real perceived US threat in the modern era.
Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?
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Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?
They were pretty cosmopolitan prior to the revolution. Can't personally vouch for the rural part of the country, but what I've read and seen pics of suggest all was well til the Mullahs won.
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Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?
No. They're pretty modern in terms of electricity and creature comforts.