Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 06:39:54 AM
Post by: charby on February 28, 2006, 06:53:05 AM
Post by: Tallpine on February 28, 2006, 07:00:47 AM
Post by: Art Eatman on February 28, 2006, 07:30:55 AM
Arable land, with some sort of water supply that's "off-grid". A shallow well with a windmill is safer water to drink than streamflow. It doesn't take a lot of land to grow veggies.
Money? If gold has a buying-power equivalent to $1,000 or $2,000 an ounce, how do you make change for a Krugerrand when buying some small item? So, small gold. 0.1 and 0.25 ounce Eagles. And, junk US silver coins.
Post by: mfree on February 28, 2006, 07:33:19 AM
Post by: K Frame on February 28, 2006, 07:35:56 AM
Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?
Post by: Art Eatman on February 28, 2006, 07:52:44 AM
The possibility of collapse existed during the era of Mutually Assured Destruction.
I'm unsure how our society would be affected by a truly severe economic downturn, if coupled with any notable decline in the buying power of our currency. I'm dubious we'd see the same degree of peaceful behavior as was common during the Great Depression.
Art
Post by: chaim on February 28, 2006, 07:59:04 AM
Quote from: Mike Irwin
I'm not sure whether it's just planning, or rampant paranoia, all of the threads that talk about "when civilization/the economy/life as we know it completely collapses..."
Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?
Mad Max/sci fi style societal collapse, no. Smaller scall societal OR economic collapse, and localized, yes, many times even in recent history.Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?
We all know about the collapse of Roman civilization, but that was so long ago.
Well, there were several in just the past century, and some within decades of us:
-The Germans after WWI and WWII
-The world, including the US, during the Great Depression
-Argentina had some hardship during the years of 100%+ inflation
-The African famines, some of these occurred in countries with some kind of middle/educated classes
-Iraq after the first Gulf War- a country with a well educated middle class and overall decent standard of living was thrown into 3rd world status
-Most of the former Soviet states were thrown into major economic crisis, and sometimes political crisis, after the fall of Communism
-This is just what I can think of in 2 min off the top of my head, but far from everything.
Nothing along the lines of total societal collapse where people will become animals preying on each other. However, they are types of situations where you wouldn't want all your investments and savings in the currency of your country, and in one (the Depression) in pretty much any currency based investments. It may not be a bad idea to diversify some percentage of your investments into foreign currency based investments, and a smaller percentage into some kind of commodity (if you are really worried about total failure go with something you can carry, if you are worried about a Great Depression where there will still be some law and order certificates stating you own x amount of something would be fine).
Post by: garrettwc on February 28, 2006, 08:06:56 AM
Quote
I'm not sure whether it's just planning, or rampant paranoia, all of the threads that talk about "when civilization/the economy/life as we know it completely collapses..."
Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?
New Orleans last year. Granted that was localized though.
Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?
Post by: K Frame on February 28, 2006, 08:12:47 AM
That's not the kind of collapse that people are talking about, or at least what I interpret what people are talking about -- a wholesale destruction of the service, supply, social, and economic infrastructures, essentially leaving everyone to fend for him/herself.
"The possibility of collapse existed during the era of Mutually Assured Destruction."
The possibility has ALWAYS existed, Art, yet even in the most cataclysmic episodes of human history, it's never happened.
It didn't happen in Germany or Japan in the end phases of World War II, not even after virtually every Japanese population center was burned to the ground, or after two atomic weapons were dropped.
It didn't happen during the Spanish Influenza epidemic of 1918-1919.
It didn't happen during any of the panics/depressions in the United States from 1870 to 1920.
It didn't happen during the world-wide Great Depression of the 1930s.
It didn't happen during the Napoleonic Wars.
And the true kicker?
It didn't happen during the Black Death, when over a 200 year period roughly 30 to 70% of the population of Europe (depending on area), died. Can anyone imagine a disease that could, in a matter of weeks or months, cause the deaths of upwards 3 million people in New York? Half a million in Philadelphia? 3.5 million in LA?
It just makes me wonder...
Post by: K Frame on February 28, 2006, 08:16:55 AM
Incorrect.
Civilization, the economy, government in New Orleans did not completely collapse. They were severely strained, but they continued to function.
Post by: K Frame on February 28, 2006, 08:26:04 AM
Do you know just how many people were out of work in the US during the height of the Great Depression, Chaim?
Whenever I ask this of people, I normally get answers ranging anywhere from 50 to 90 percent. At no time during the Great Depression is it believed that more than 25% of the general workforce was without jobs.
In most indistrialized nations the figures are similar, Australia quotes 29%, Great Britain 22%, France somewhere in between.
"The Germans after WWI and WWII"
Also a misnomer, although Weimar Republic Germany during the height of the inflationary period in the 1920s was closer. Germany after World War II? No, because German society was immediately propped up economically, politically, and structurally by the Allies.
The famines in Africa are somewhat closer, but they still aren't indicative of a total collapse of society.
Well, I've thoroughly hijacked this thread with a series of rhetorical questions, for which I apologize, tokugawa.
I suggest you put your money in kitty litter. It will be very popular for sopping up blood stains when the revolution comes.
Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 09:12:19 AM
Mentors & Elders put back :
-rolls of silver dimes, quarters, half dollars and dollars.
-small gold coins
-.22 ammo
-inexpensive guns
-hand held Lee Reloaders and reloading components
-hand tools
-books
-etc.
Now I have knowledge of and have seen these, these Mentors are now passed. Words do not describe seeing a 55 gal drum full of nothing but rolls of silver coins, or another full of silver coins, gold coins $1 and $5 paper money. 55 gal drum also holds a lot of ammo. Others with inexpensive guns like .22 rifles and shotguns is something else.
All sorts of hand tools and normal everyday stuff to repair vehicles, to oil lamps, to plumbing to electrical ...etc., that may be be hard to get and things needing fixed and maintained.
Some recall the depression, and many have passed down the needs vs wants lessons to kids. Seems a box of .22 ammo was pretty good barter material for something needed. Pair of pliers in exchange worked right nice too.
I never saw a Hills Bros Coffee can tossed out, or a Mason Jar - these were "recycled" in some shape, form or fashion...
One place is an Cistern, been too many years since I have been there. I imagine the chicken snakes are still keeping tabs on stores below.
Rolls of non silver coins too, folks might not have change to give back...
The "folding money" gets replaced with newer printing. One old lady who did not trust banks, when she died had over $100K in cash in the home. Could not access the "downstairs so good" - them heavy drapes upstairs had over $25k in the lining. No wonder the damn things were rarely pulled back to let light in. House got sold, kinfolks invested in old grocery store safes, these part of the basements now...if you know where to look. *wink*.
One mentor had me by the heels, lowered me head first into a 55 gal drum, damn that canvas bag was heavy! My "job" was to get the first Layer started out right...I got a silver dollar for my assistance.
Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 09:45:20 AM
And again, without arguing about definitions or history, I do believe the situation today is far more interconnected than in the past, and subject to a much harder fall. Our very reliance on technological leverage has helped us to forget the lessons of the past.
Post by: The Rabbi on February 28, 2006, 10:17:33 AM
Most of the people who had enough resources to make preparations in New Orleans also had enough resoures to flee the area. That seems to be key to me. We might have localized temporary absence of some services but those are localized. And temporary.
I would bet people who stocked up on dried beans in anticipation of the collapse of civilization in Y2K are still eating lots of chili.
Post by: K Frame on February 28, 2006, 11:15:26 AM
I assume you're talking internationally. That is true, but I'm really wondering if it's to any greater degree of impact than it was in the 1930s. Impossible to effectively answer, of course.
That said, it should also be noted that the US Government today is far more proactive in interceding in catastrophic events than it has ever been. The social net that exists today largely came about due to the Great Depression. No, it doesn't always operate effectively, or smoothly, but it is there to a degree that people who were victims of the 1905 Galveston, Texas, hurricane never could have imagined.
Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 12:48:01 PM
The two things that come to mind would be a meteor strike or an illness that kills massive numbers of people.
Much more likely is a big economic collapse in the US, but I suspect we'll more likely experience a slow decline in our standard of living as the Pacific Rim and LCC become more important.
Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 03:46:48 PM
Post by: Guest on February 28, 2006, 03:59:37 PM
Quote from: Art Eatman
Money? If gold has a buying-power equivalent to $1,000 or $2,000 an ounce, how do you make change for a Krugerrand when buying some small item? So, small gold. 0.1 and 0.25 ounce Eagles. And, junk US silver coins.
I wouldnt worry about gold too much. If civilization has collapsed and people are starving to death gold isnt going to be worth much of anything. If you cant eat it, drink it, or shoot it, it has no value to a civilization that is living hand-to-mouth.
Post by: drewtam on February 28, 2006, 08:53:16 PM
Quote from: tokugawa
I am not totally talking about international interdependency. The vast majority of people now are city dwellers, and most food comes from a very far distance- along with most everything else. Something simple, like gas and diesel at 10 bucks a gallon could have some real unanticipated effects.
At $10/gal, the effect would be to switch to Liquid Natural Gas, which can be both 'mined' and artificially produced from coal (coal gasification). This fuel is equivilent to about $5/gal (in gasoline terms, equal power cars, equal driving distances). Hydrogen split from water by electrolysis is about $7/gal (in gasoline terms), its more expensive because of the difficulty in actually using it (like storing and transporting). Realise then, that we really aren't more than a decade or two away from switching to an alternative fuel (also dont forget that nuclear supplies are nearly inexhaustable).We have so much food and grain we dont know where to put it all, we have to maintain high prices by placing high import tariffs on other nations and then turning around and paying our farmers not to grow. Grain, if kept dry and unexposed to the elements can last millenia. There are vases of sealed grain found in the tombs of egyptian kings, still good to be planted or consumed.
I'm convinced that our interconnectedness and advanced technology, makes our race almost impossible to wipe out now; INCLUDING complete nuclear war by every nation.
Quote from: tokugawa
I believe we just acheived a net negative savings rate as well. It just seems shaky to me, admittedly I am no financial expert. Stocks are fine, bonds are fine, I would just like to have an alternate as a diversity cushion.
An economic depression is something completely different; I am convinced that serious economic hardship is coming down the pike for my generation. The money owed to SS, Medicare/Medicaid and what is required to fund the military is 3/5 of the budget. Paying just the interest on our current debt is about a fifth of our budget. But we're still bringing on the debt.Taxes will go up,
economy will go down,
social services and military will have to be cut because banks wont trust lending our gov't a single dime after a certain debt point.
Taxes will go up again
economy will continue to slow, other people will be blamed for the economic weakness (the chinese use slave labor, and they do; the OPEC squeeze us for every dime, and they do).
inflation, inflation, inflation...
So back to the thread, how do we hedge against serious and rampant stagflation that looks to be on our horizon?
Gold, maybe, it seems like a pretty contrived currency to me but maybe thats cause I'm an engineer- Gold isnt useful for anything.
Assets? Manufacturing equipement? Farmland?
Housing will bust, manufacturing is done cheaper by China, food prices will tank
But all three of those things would provide a place to live, machinery to use, and food to eat!
IMHO, the only 'thing' to trust is God (i.e. "In God We Trust" on our money), and learn to be content in both riches and poverty for we will be provided for.
Drew
Post by: Felonious Monk/Fignozzle on February 28, 2006, 09:53:13 PM
99.999% of the time, this should be no problem, and most are content to call that acceptable risk.
A few boxes of survival rations and a drum of water and the rolled silver coins sm mentioned might reduce that risk even further.
It's not unlike what few talk about re: carrying CCW; the likelihood of actually having to prevail in a firefight is extremely small. In some huge majority of incidents, the introduction of a weapon (drawing/presenting one's gun) is enough to back down the aggressor and cause him to flee. Even so, the BG is not going to stand there and run wound ballistics calculations on your 8 shot 22Magnum Taurus snub to see if he can survive an altercation. It will usually go:
OMG! A frelling GUN! (involuntary urination) scramble crawl mumble plead run away. Reholster.
I've fought/debated folks on this topic many times, and some don't want to accept carrying anything but a 1911 flavored .45, but for many it's just not realistic (my diabetic 77 year old mother in law), and so she is pretty well prepared (range trips about every other month) with her Taurus snub.
It's late, I'm rambling. Sorry.
Post by: Dave Markowitz on March 01, 2006, 04:49:52 AM
Post by: Silver Bullet on March 01, 2006, 06:46:24 AM
Otherwise, consider
http://www.mountainhouse.com/emgcy_fds.cfm
Post by: K Frame on March 01, 2006, 08:59:38 AM
It's not just limited to those who are on the receiving end of the ass kicking, either. American troops routinely bartered among themselves. Cash may have been available, but when you're in combat or elsewise away from an area where cash is actually useful, a candy bar, pack of cigarettes, or product from a rations pouch can have greater intrinsic value.
Post by: Art Eatman on March 01, 2006, 09:43:39 AM
Gold has always had a monetary value. It has always been a refuge against devaluation of fiat currency; still is.
I've never been any sort of believer in SHTF stuff. Rodney King riots or Katrinas, yeah, but that's different. I've always found it entertaining to speculate.
Back in the late 1970s, with the high inflation of the Carter era and the Cold War hot-up, "Survivalism" began to be talked about. Mel Tappan wrote about it, for instance, and folks were serious about the information in "The Anarchist's Cookbook" and so on.
Now, I've been a do-it-yourselfer for a long, long time. I was raised in a mix of city and country, and learned a lot about farming, gardening and ranching as well as about psychology and engineering. I did my own home repairs and car repairs. I've always been into guns and handloading and hunting--and I've done a lot of fishing.
So one day I run across a list of "things" and talents that The Compleat Survivalist would have, and, Lo! And, Behold! I are one!
:D:DBut most of that stuff is just mental masturbation...
Art
Post by: Guest on March 01, 2006, 10:14:10 AM
Quote from: Art Eatman
...So one day I run across a list of "things" and talents that The Compleat Survivalist would have, and, Lo! And, Behold! I are one! :D:D
That's why, when it hits the fan, I'm going to Art's. :D:D
Post by: Guest on March 01, 2006, 02:16:50 PM
As Bob Dylan said, you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. What this nation is doing economically is simply unsustainable. That which cannot be sustained will eventually break down. Don't ask me when, I don't know. I am convinced the question IS when and not if however. The oft-repeated deprecation of precious metals is one example of how far afield we have come. Gold and silver have been money for as long as humans have had a concept of such a thing, yet so many people these days have absolute confidence in a financial structure based on fiat currency that only dates back to 1913. The Fed is not the first national bank to hold sway in the United States, nor is it the second... . It might be instructive to examine the history of the previous national banks in the US, not to mention the history of EVERY fiat currency regime that has ever existed. Forewarned is forearmed after all.
My suggestion for the most valuable place you can invest current "dollars" (such as they are) is in the space between your ears. No, I don't mean going to college for some useless airhead degree. I mean learning practical, useful skills that have an application in your life and that of others around you. Find a useful aptitude you have and pursue it. Learn to garden, and to preserve the excess of your harvest, accumulate the tools necessary to be successful. Learn to raise and keep small livestock, to run a smokehouse, to salt meat, to milk a cow and churn butter by hand. Take a Red Cross first aid course, then go on through your EMT training and become a paramedic. Learn what makes engines tick and how to repair them, build your toolbox and spare part supply to the point you can do most of your own mainenance work. Learn basic carpentry, plumbing, electrical work (most community colleges offer homeowner level classes), and along with the skills invest in the necessary tools. Learn what makes PCs and networks tick, how to set up and troubleshoot connections and software, some programming basics, and invest in the hardware and software to keep learning more. Turn an existing hobby into something profitable or at least potentially so. Look for things that you can do to save money, and educate yourself to find places to put those savings, places that can grow them for you instead of shrinking your purchasing power through inflation. And so on, ad infinitum.
Understand something. NOT ONE of us has any guarantees, not for the next minute, hour, day, week, month, year, decade- no promises, nothing to count on at all. I have had some personal experience with how your world can get yanked out from under you in a major way, no one has to convince me. I am an absolute believer that I might not see tomorrow's sunrise- I know it might not be in the cards for me. So for all that stuff some of you are taking for granted, you better begin getting over it while you have some time to rearrange your thought processes. That will be the thing that turns lots of people into piddling lumpen masses when things eventually do go sideways for whatever reason the ball gets kicked off- being surprised by it. Prepare to be surprised, you don't walk the street in Condition White, why should you live the other aspects of your life that way?
America used to pride itself on rugged individualism, do-it-yourselfishness, being capable and willing to lend a hand to a neighbor. Seen much of that lately? DONE much of that lately? Likely more people here on a percentage basis do than in many virtual communities, just because of the demographics involved. But DON'T rest on whatever laurels you have. Get up and go, expand your skill set, learn something you didn't know and equip yourself to do it well. That's the best place you can invest- in yourself and your skills and tools. Everything else is at best a poor second.
Yes, I happen to agree that being out of the city is a good idea. But your location won't help if you don't know how to get along there. I understand that complete self sufficiency is a happy romantic fantasy, that's why I think it is necessary to get a looong head start in order to build a place for yourself as a valuable member of your community. The idea that you will buy some remote acreage, build a vacation cabin, visit it twice a year, and then go there to live the life of Robinson Crusoe Reilly if "TSHTF" is the stuff of novels and movies. It ain't gonna happen. And having buckets of precious metals, ammo, freeze-dried miracle chow or anything else will not buy you a place if you haven't already earned one by what you ARE and what you KNOW.
Enough of a rant for tonight, busy trading days get me really wound up (good thing they are unusual around here).
lpl/nc
Post by: drewtam on March 01, 2006, 09:34:26 PM
Quote from: Art Eatman
drewtam, I got my BSME in 1962.
Gold has always had a monetary value. It has always been a refuge against devaluation of fiat currency; still is.
But most of that stuff is just mental masturbation...
Art
Where did you go to school?Gold has always had a monetary value. It has always been a refuge against devaluation of fiat currency; still is.
But most of that stuff is just mental masturbation...
Art
I'm just gradiated from Illinois.
With Precious Metals (PM); I still dont understand why people put stock in them. It reminds me of Gulliver's Travels and the Yahoos who would dig these shiny rocks and fight and scratch over something that is entirely useless. It seems just as contrived as paper money, the only advantage is that the rate of 'printing' is limited to how much can be discovered and mined. This puts a limit on drastic inflation. But otherwise, just as fiat as the paper kind. The gold is only worth as much as I want it, only as much as I am willing to trade for it.
The main thing I think I'm missing in TEOTW, is that I wouldn't have any idea how to raise a herd of cattle or hogs. About the only thing I know about farming is put seed in ground and just add water. But I could probably put together a blast furnace and a small scale power plant. Given enough coal, or coke. And I could probably work those guys who know how to ferment alcohols and build some terribly inefficient ethanol cars.
I think people would be willing to give me food for electricity, steel, and cars.
I agree that most of the survivalism is 'entertainment' as you put it.
But I am convinced that a large recession looms on our horizon. I dont think it'll be sudden unless the US.gov defaults which I think is highly unlikely. It'll be a slow draining stagflation.
It seems that everyone here, puts thier trust in PM as a hedge againt financial collapse. Are there any other opinions? It seems to me that if most currencies (including the dollar and euro) undergo massive devaluations, then PMs will mitigate the loss but still lose. Housing would also completely devalue since the market would dry up.
Drew
Post by: longeyes on March 02, 2006, 06:50:29 AM
The Black Death did a pretty good extermination job. One-third of Europe dead, maybe more.
As for trading materials, an Argentinian "survivalist" recommends, among other things, modestly expensive gold and silver jewelry. Rings and things.
Post by: Art Eatman on March 02, 2006, 11:36:42 AM
As far as precious metals, it doesn't matter what the government's economists or the Wall Street experts say. "Little people", worldwide, have always kept some gold for when the currency goes into the toilet. For many of them, it's a case of in the toilet AGAIN.
Another way to look at it: Money is what people will ACCEPT in return for a good or a service. I'm not saying we'll get to a condition of Germany of 1923, but it's worth studying as to the behavior of government, employer and employee. Printing presses running full blast, employers paying each hour, and the employee taking a wheelbarrow full of Marks to buy a loaf of bread.
What can I say? I've been making profits, meddling with gold and silver, for over 35 years, now. I'm just too stoopid to know that gold ain't as good as money... So it's merely a commodity? Fine. Most of my gold was bought at around $300/oz. Silver at $4/oz. So, right now, I'm sitting fat and happy. Gold isn't "worth" more; the dollar just buys less of it. Hey, the dollar buys less car, now, than it did 30 years ago, right? Or gasoline?
Count me in among those who see maybe a 30% drop in the buying power of the currency over the next few years.
Art
Post by: drewtam on March 03, 2006, 11:32:29 AM
Quote from: Art Eatman
I'm not saying we'll get to a condition of Germany of 1923, but it's worth studying as to the behavior of government
I'm afraid we are heading to something very close to that, but it just wont be so sudden.But its kinda at that strange inflection point, where its hard to tell whether we will move ourselves out of that path. On the one hand we have been seeing massive increases of gov't debt for the past 20yrs. On the other, a large movement toward fiscal responsibity has been underway including welfare reform. It was an idea that has been pushed by Repubs for years and during the Clinton years the slightly Repub congress with minor (but crucial) Dem support finally has the first balanced budget in years. But then Bush goes and signs the Medicare/Medcaid bills which is now 1/5 of our budget. But then he brings up a major SS reform topic, but then he gets shot down so hard its depressing.
I'm not sure which direction its going to go from here, will we save ourselves from the path of financial melt down? I'm not sure.
Just as soon as Repubs get the upperhand in national politcal power, 'small gov't and less tax' goes scurrying off to hide in the corner.
Its all so frustrating.
Drew
Post by: Art Eatman on March 03, 2006, 11:55:50 AM
The majority of people want security, which is defined differently for different people, but they'll vote for whomever promises it to them: Financial, or health, or physical or whatever floats the boat.
Deficit financing, so far, hasn't cost a politico his office. The public at large has been conditioned to instant gratification and a built-in belief that, somehow, the future is secure: Thanx, Guvmint. Therefore, gigantic balance of trade deficit, courtesy all the imported goodies. Gigantic federal budget deficits and gigantic national debt.
Add it all up and about all I can say is that I figure my security of all sorts is mostly up to me. But, then, I always have...
Art
Post by: K Frame on March 03, 2006, 01:22:07 PM
Mark my words...
Kitty litter.
Post by: Art Eatman on March 03, 2006, 03:40:57 PM
, Art
Post by: Justin on March 03, 2006, 09:08:51 PM
Post by: Art Eatman on March 04, 2006, 03:09:05 AM
Back when the Peso collapsed in Mexico, before they shifted the decimal point by 100, the banks had a run on aluminum and brass coinage. Gringos bought them by the many-pounds worth, drilled holes in them, and used or sold them as washers. Governemnts can even render metals valueless!!
, Art
Post by: Antibubba on March 05, 2006, 08:45:53 AM
I'm more concerned about a slow crumple than a big crunch.
Post by: Guest on March 06, 2006, 09:59:38 AM
Quote from: Art Eatman
Funny you should mention that, Mike. There's a kitty-litter mine not far north of me, and a face-powder mine not far north of that. Different grades of bentonite.
, Art
Don't get 'em mixed up. , Art