Whoa... Ukrainian counterattack breaks through to the Russian border

[K Frame]

This is huge...

Apparently Russia was expecting a counteroffensive in the south so they moved a bunch of troops down from the North.

The counteroffensive came in the North, and it's not going well for Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/situation-more-difficult-by-the-hour-ukrainian-forces-break-through-to-russian-border-live-updates/ar-AA11JlD5?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=887fd41c1cff4447afec44bc867659bf


There are also growing rumors of unrest within the Kremlin leadership to the point where several officials were allegedly arrested in the past week, allegedly for questioning the military strategy and purpose in Ukraine.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Keep going on, Ukraine. Moscow aint that much further on down the road. Push Putin back to the other side of the Urals.

Woody

[MechAg94]

I am curious if there are logistics points within reach they can attack, but if they just force Russia to pull support from other areas, it could help.  Hopefully, Ukraine isn't using up a lot of critical supplies doing this.

[K Frame]

From the Defense of Ukraine twitter account...

🇺🇦 will restore its territorial integrity, including Donbas and Crimea.
Prepare to swim, occupiers.

 

[HankB]

I HOPE things are going as well for this Ukrainian counterattack as the news makes it out to be.

If they're right up to the Russian border, I wonder if their artillery and missiles can hit major military staging and supply areas - maybe even military airports - that are actually in Russia; if Ukrainian special forces are actually any good, they SHOULD have people - small, sneaky teams - infiltrated into Russia for scouting purposes, if nothing else.

[French G.]

The Ukraine reddit and funker530 continue to be a wealth of info. My biggest worry now is that Russia loses so badly a nuke or two seems like a good idea. They already are missile striking pretty much the entire power grid. For weeks now a large portion of the Russians across the dnieper River were dependent on a few bridges and pontoon bridges. Ukraine has been whacking them without relent.

[WLJ]

Grey area is retaken terr

As you can see from the 2nd map they've been doing a bit of push back in the south as well

[Nick1911]

The Ukraine reddit and funker530 continue to be a wealth of info. My biggest worry now is that Russia loses so badly a nuke or two seems like a good idea. They already are missile striking pretty much the entire power grid. For weeks now a large portion of the Russians across the dnieper River were dependent on a few bridges and pontoon bridges. Ukraine has been whacking them without relent.

I did read where western powers said that attacking a nuke plant with radiation release would be an Article 5.  For the same reasons, I think lighting off a nuke would also be.

Doesn't mean Russia won't do it, but the west is trying to put some boundaries up.

[dogmush]

For those interested in verifiable information on this conflict, I have found this twitter account very useful:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical

I am still concerned about a Russian over reaction when they start losing Crimea.  You also have to wonder if Russia will be back in another 5or 6 years if they do lose. 

[WLJ]

The Ukraine reddit and funker530 continue to be a wealth of info. My biggest worry now is that Russia loses so badly a nuke or two seems like a good idea.

Hopefully he's both smart and sane enough to not do that. Problem is I'm having doubts on the sane part and he could see it as a face saving measure.
Hopefully someone in the Kremlin puts a bullet into his head if he tries to go route.

[French G.]

Hopefully he's both smart and sane enough to not do that. Problem is I'm having doubts on the sane part and he could see it as a face saving measure.
Hopefully someone in the Kremlin puts a bullet into his head if he tries to go route.

Kinda like the ones that tried to get rid of hitler. Extreme downside risks.

[HankB]

I did read where western powers said that attacking a nuke plant with radiation release would be an Article 5.  For the same reasons, I think lighting off a nuke would also be.

Doesn't mean Russia won't do it, but the west is trying to put some boundaries up.

I would guess (note I said guess) that the direction of the fallout drift would play a role in the West's response.

[dogmush]

I would guess that NATO doesn't (currently) have the balls to attack Russia over what they will claim is collateral damage.  That's if they don't blame the Ukrainians.  There will be an "investigation" and it will be ascribed by NATO as a fog of war incident with a stern warning.

A nuclear weapon touching off is a lot harder to ignore.

[Brad Johnson]

There are also growing rumors of unrest within the Kremlin leadership to the point where several officials were allegedly arrested in the past week, allegedly for questioning the military strategy and purpose in Ukraine.

Wasn't there a Fox News story to that effect late last week?

Brad

[Ben]

I'm having a hard time believing that the ruskies will just say, "nevermind" and pull out. I mean, I know they kind of did that in Afghanistan, but this is somewhat different. Unless there's a coup against Vlad and his boys, I'm afraid that the Russians are going to do something serious that affects more than Ukraine (and I don't mean just cutting off energy to Europe) if they continue to lose ground.

[HankB]

I'm having a hard time believing that the ruskies will just say, "nevermind" and pull out. I mean, I know they kind of did that in Afghanistan, but this is somewhat different. Unless there's a coup against Vlad and his boys, I'm afraid that the Russians are going to do something serious that affects more than Ukraine (and I don't mean just cutting off energy to Europe) if they continue to lose ground.

When someone contemplates ratcheting up the violence, they should be counseled about the dial and the switch . . .

[Unisaw]

Here's a link to YouTube video that just dropped from Peter Zeihan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAD684eczq8

The gist of it is that this is a shocking rout but, historically, Russia has some history of recovering from military disasters.

[zxcvbob]

I did read where western powers said that attacking a nuke plant with radiation release would be an Article 5.  For the same reasons, I think lighting off a nuke would also be.

Doesn't mean Russia won't do it, but the west is trying to put some boundaries up.

Article 5 of what, the UN Charter?  NATO? (Ukraine is not a member.)  Some other treaty?

[Nick1911]

Article 5 of what, the UN Charter?  NATO? (Ukraine is not a member.)  Some other treaty?

NATO.  Collective defense.

[zxcvbob]

NATO.  Collective defense.

That's what I thought but I don't see how it applies.   From fallout drifting into Romania or Hungary?

[Nick1911]

That's what I thought but I don't see how it applies.   From fallout drifting into Romania or Hungary?

Presumably.

Conservative British member of parliament Tobias Ellwood, who chairs the House of Commons Defense Select Committee, cautioned that any nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant could draw NATO into the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“Let’s make it clear now: any deliberate damage causing potential radiation leak to a Ukrainian nuclear reactor would be a breach of NATO’s Article 5,” he said Friday on Twitter.

[WLJ]

Think Putin is crazy enough to set off a WMD in Russian territory and blame it Ukraine in an attempt to rally Russian support for the war and justify doing the doing same x50 to Ukraine?

[RocketMan]

The Ukraine reddit and funker530 continue to be a wealth of info. My biggest worry now is that Russia loses so badly a nuke or two seems like a good idea.

Hopefully he's both smart and sane enough to not do that. Problem is I'm having doubts on the sane part and he could see it as a face saving measure.

Well, he is a megalomaniac, so...

[K Frame]

That's what I thought but I don't see how it applies.   From fallout drifting into Romania or Hungary?

IIRC, fallout from the Chernobyl accident contaminated a large swath of Poland and what was then East Germany.

Both Poland and Germany are now NATO members.

[Lennyjoe]

Posted this on another thread but it shows some good progress along with tons of equipment left behind by the Ruskies.  At 18:48 a Ukrainian almost made the casualty list as a round barely missed him.  It’s a sound you’ll never forget when it zips right by you…

https://fb.watch/fvwZU3J433/