VA Governor Election Prediction

[sumpnz]

Well, now the D’s have a decent handle on the amount of fraud they need to plan for in next years election.

[DustinD]

NJ Rs did really well with their down ballet races, lots of progress made.

The NJ gov race just nearly tied 49.70-R to 49.56-D only a 3k difference. 86% reporting.

[K Frame]

As of this morning, Youngkin has been declared the winner, and the Republican candidates have solid leads (but still too close to call) in the Lt. Gov. and Attorney General's races. Even better, the Republicans look poised to take outright control of the Virginia House of Delegates by gaining 6 seats.

Six months ago pundits were concentrating more on by how huge a margin the now and forevermore solidly blue Old Dominion would bury the Republicans.

Saying there are a lot of very, very shocked people in Virginia right now is an understatement.

Terry McAuliffe ran one of the most tone-deaf dog whistle campaigns I've ever seen. He spent months trying to tie Youngkin to Donald Trump (even going so far as to outright LIE on Tuesday and say that Trump and Youngkin were campaigning together). Well, apparently he was the only one who couldn't see that there were a lot of other topics that were a lot more important to Virginians than the Donald.

McAuliffe also handed Youngkin an incredibly effective hammer in his debate comment in which he said Virginia parents should have no say over what's taught in schools. Incredible political gaffe, one that Youngkin used over and over and one that absolutely resonated with a lot of Virginia parents.

Even better, McAuliffe later ran an ad basically crying how Youngkin was taking his words out of context... and Youngkin turned THAT into an incredibly effective ad to again hammer home the education issue.

The key to Youngkin's victory wasn't just holding previous Republican strongholds, he also outperformed expectations (sometimes by a pretty wide margin) in both red and blue areas of the state. In some of the southwest counties in Virginia he pulled in close to 90% of the total vote, in more than a couple of counties getting an increase of upwards 10% over the 2017 election.

In Fairfax County Youngkin picked up over 3% more votes than the Republican did in 2017, in Loudoun County 5% more. That may not seem like much, but in a tight race swings like that can be huge cumulatively. He also outperformed in other traditionally blue strongholds like Richmond and Norfolk.

Virginia voter surveys appear to show that state voter's concerns are pretty much at 180 degree odds with the national party's activities. Climate change and the like? Apparently dead last for Virginia votes.

Skyrocketing inflation, skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices, skyrocketing food prices? All near the top of Virginia voter concern.

I think as of right now Democrats, both in Virginia and nationally, are pretty stunned, but I'm really hoping that they're too tone deaf and too far down the Socialist path to pull back in time to realign their messages for next year's midterms. I can't wait to hear the explanations coming out of Pelosi, Schumer, and the Squad trying to explain away why Virginia has nothing to do with national concerns...

It's going to be a *expletive deleted*ing hoot.

[Ben]

Congrats to the APS Virginians!

From what I understand, more conservatives than ever in history tuned into MSNBC because they apparently lost their *expletive deleted*it there. I can't wait for the compilation video! 

Also, Kamala Harris called it:

Back when she was campaigning for former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Harris said, "What happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on."

[French G.]

They cannot pull back. The dems are in a hostage situation and the progressives have the suicide vests. This is trumps eternal gift. I have said since 2016 he was going to destroy both parties and he has. I think the republicans are closer to health than the Ds who are still staggering around trying to die. Virginia will go stupid blue again soon. Hopefully not for Youngkins midterm, but soon.

Turnout in my area was okay at 253 votes for governor but when I voted trump the first time I was voter 307 with an hour left on the polls.

[K Frame]

"From what I understand, more conservatives than ever in history tuned into MSNBC because they apparently lost their *expletive deleted*it there."

I tuned into MSNBC at various times last night, including for the opening of the Mad Cow show... You could see that glitch in her eye, the same one she had in 2016...

She had some guests on last night who were seemingly hard-core left wingers and who were attacking the national party structure. I watched, laughed a bit, and then went to bed. It was glorious!

[WLJ]

In a sane world with someone openly anti-parent rights as McAuliffe appears to be it should be 99% to 0.0001%.

[Ben]

I just learned this fact:

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2021/11/03/meet-winsome-sears-the-bada-conservative-black-woman-elected-as-lt-gov-in-virginia/

This should be covered 24/7 for the next month by the MSM, because isn't this an even bigger diversity win than Harris? I mean, the qualifications and work history alone are 10X superior to Harris'. This woman should be all over the teevee as a minority success.

And I'm not saying this sarcastically. I wasn't even aware of her, but here is a woman who not only served her country, but her community. She appears to have a completely selfless history - pretty much the opposite of Harris (and say, Stacy Abrams). So of course information about her is suppressed by the MSM.

[MillCreek]

Since the Republican won, this has to be the most fair election in history.

[WLJ]

Cue the Ds and the MSM running wild with stories this could only have happened because blacks were prevented from voting by hooded men wearing MAGA hats, racist voting laws, and Russian hacking. I wish I was joking.

[HankB]

Since the Republican won, this has to be the most fair election in history.

No, it's just surprising that he won by enough to beat the margin of fraud coming out of Richmond.

As I write this, the R is ahead of the incumbent D in New Jersey by 0.05% with around 80% of the votes counted . . . we'll see what happens there.

[French G.]

Yes, I too am eagerly waiting to be told how the rednecks voting for a black immigrant woman was really the product of a xenophobic and systemically racist patriarchy.  I figure by noon today they ought to have that copy on the wire.

[WLJ]

No, it's just surprising that he won by enough to beat the margin of fraud coming out of Richmond.

As I write this, the R is ahead of the incumbent D in New Jersey by 0.05% with around 80% of the votes counted . . . we'll see what happens there.

Since the D heavy urban areas are usually the slowest and usually the last to report fully I would say there's a 99.9% chance it's going to the Ds

[DittoHead]

Democrats are also learning that without Trump himself on the ballot, they had merely rented some of the suburban votes that had shifted their way in the last two cycles. Running against Trump is apparently not a winning formula when the former president is merely a spectral presence.

This is going to show even more in the midterms. Trump was very polarizing, he energized his base but turned off a lot of independents and suburban voters that are happy to vote for other Republicans. Once you combine getting those voters back, a mess of an economy, favorable district maps, an unpopular president, and Dems usual turnout disadvantage in midterms, 2022 is going to be a very bad election for Democrats.

I also think they're screwed on the giant spending bill. It's been months of sausage making and infighting so at this point even if it does pass, progressives are not going to be enthusiastic about it. If it doesn't pass they will punish the Dems for their failure, if it does pass then conservatives have another unpopular item to campaign against. Politically it's a lose-lose situation for them at this point.

[WLJ]

Yes, I too am eagerly waiting to be told how the rednecks voting for a black immigrant woman was really the product of a xenophobic and systemically racist patriarchy.  I figure by noon today they ought to have that copy on the wire.

They'll declare her an "Uncle Tom" thus she doesn't actually count as black. They've done it with pretty much every black R in the past.

[Ben]

This is going to show even more in the midterms. Trump was very polarizing, he energized his base but turned off a lot of independents and suburban voters that are happy to vote for other Republicans. Once you combine getting those voters back, a mess of an economy, favorable district maps, an unpopular president, and Dems usual turnout disadvantage in midterms, 2022 is going to be a very bad election for Democrats.

I'm curious if progressive big tech are kicking themselves for censoring Trump. If Trump still had his Twitter account, I have to wonder if he wouldn't have riled up more dems in VA to get out and vote.

[Ben]

Also, I think it would be awesome if Youngkin threw in a big thank you to the Lincoln Project for helping get him elected. 

[Perd Hapley]

Thanks for some good news, Virginia. Also congratulations on electing a governor that's not into blackface. 

[DustinD]

Interesting trend. I wonder how much of this is Trump's fault vs Biden's fault.

[DustinD]

Keep playing the race card please.

[K Frame]

And I would expect nothing less from MSNBC than a headline article like this...

Jesus Christ...

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/glenn-youngkin-wins-virginia-governor-race-rcna4316

Youngkin didn't start to gain measurably on McAuliffe until Terry the Commie handed him a hammering point in the September debate. Nothing about McAulliffe running one of the most tone deaf campaigns in history. Nothing about reaction to Sniffy Joe's failing presidency.

Nope, the real reason Democrats lost is because white people are racist.

And if you look at the rest of the articles on MSNBC's front page right now, Donald Trump is still living VERY firmly, rent free, in the minds of the Liberal Left pundits while it's obvious from yesterday's elections that much of the rank and file left has moved on from that.

[DustinD]

The Youngkin campaign discovered that this contingent of angry, willfully ignorant white people was the key ingredient needed to elect a GOP governor in Virginia for the first time since 2009. We can expect more Republicans to try the same gambit as we inch closer to next year’s consequential midterm elections.

I hope the democrats double down on that theory and see how much it helps them.

[Ben]

A moron speaks:

Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
What if tonight's returns suggest Democrats merely rented the college-educated suburbs, while Republicans now own the rural and non-college white vote? That would be...worrisome.

[HankB]

They'll declare her an "Uncle Tom" thus she doesn't actually count as black. They've done it with pretty much every black R in the past.

Maybe "Aunt Jemima" . . . or if they're afraid of misgendering, they'll bring back the term Oreo Cookie. Or what they said about Larry Elder in CA, "The Black face of White racism."

[WLJ]

Maybe "Aunt Jemima" . . . or if they're afraid of misgendering, they'll bring back the term Oreo Cookie. Or what they said about Larry Elder in CA, "The Black face of White racism."

Anything to discredit her "blackness"

Really really sad part of all that is that to be black in their minds you must obediently vote for modern new and improved version of the old south democrat slave masters.