Author Topic: Rethinking my support for military adventurism  (Read 17464 times)

Ron

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #25 on: July 28, 2010, 10:25:29 PM »
Quote
I'm not sure what the solution is, other than to fight to win and not quit until we do.  That option just doesn't seem viable, we apparently don't have the fortitude to carry it out.  C'est la vie. 

define win in this context
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #26 on: July 28, 2010, 10:30:42 PM »
define win in this context

Exactly.  Win no longer means bulldoze the enemy into submission.  "Hearts and minds" and all that jazz.  BS I say.  We came, we saw, we killed everyone.  You kill one of us, we kill 100 of you.  Occupation only works when you expect and demand 100% submission of the occupied peoples.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #27 on: July 28, 2010, 10:38:56 PM »
define win in this context
A win would be having a stable, mostly friend government in place that is capable of denying safe haven to the fanatics trying to kill us.

There are a number of ways to accomplish it, but they all take time.  Getting new governments established is a slow process.

MicroBalrog

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #28 on: July 28, 2010, 10:55:19 PM »
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If we leave Afghanistan without a stable, allied government in place, we're very likely to find that the region reverts back to a staging and launching ground for attacks against us. 

How do you plan to install a stable government in Afghanistan? Who has last succeeded in doing such a thing in the last, oh, two millenia?

How much will your plan cost, in dollars and soldiers' lives, as well as innocent Afghani lives? Is it worth it?

There are legitimate questions. Asking them doesn't make me a commie-pinko-liberal.

Quote
This war didn't start with our entry into Afghanistan, and it won't end with our exit from Afghanistan. 

Here's the problem. I quoted it from your post.

There have always been terrorists - Muslim, Communist, Anarchist - attacking innocent civilians in America and allied countries. Pancho Villa burned down an entire town.

This is in the same way as there have always been murderers. It is not to say that murder is not wrong - but we know that there is a certain level of crime and murder that we are have in Western society, and we don't claim there's a state of national emergency over it.  We know that street criminals do not pose a threat to Western Civilization.

The Soviet Union posed, on the other hand, a threat to Western Civilization. It had science, and industry, and nuclear weapons, and its troops were training day and night for an offensive nuclear war against America and her allies. So the world - not just America, but her allies by and large, accepted a great amount of military spending, and involvement in various countries (America's allies helped fight Vietnam, for instance), and a variety of stuff they wouldn't have otherwise put up with - like Operation Gladio, and the bombings of Laos - to hold off having to fight waves of Soviet tanks in Germany.

But does the terrorist threat constitute a threat level comparable to the Soviets? If the threat level posed to us (the West) by semi-literate, 9th-century 'tards such as to justify the sort of expenses in money, and freedom, and political capital that were once spent on fighting the cold war?

Which brings me to the following point:

Quote
Eventually one of the attacks will be wildly successful, killing an "unignorably" large number of our citizens, and we'll start all over again.

The world is always going to be a dangerous place to some extent.

There's always going to be some terrorism, and some murders, and some dangers to us. Inevitably - inevitably - there's going to be a new McVeigh, or a new 9/11. Someone is going to hijack a plane, or blow up a bus, or shoot up a school. Maybe they'll even be shouting JIHAD FOR ALLAH while doing it. But the level of such events does not approach the level of a true emergency where you need to review everything and so forth.

I respect, absolutely, the actions of veterans who fought in Afghanistan, Iraq, and countless other countries. You know full well that I am not an anti-war 'tard of any kind. I do not hate America.

And I ask again:

Since 2001, America alone paid 1,022 billion dollars to fight global terrorism. Three-quarters of this sum were not spent in Afghanistan, which trained the 9/11 hijackers and provided Bin Ladin with shelter, but in Iraq. This is half the cost of WW2. This could fund you ten Apollo programs.  Added to that were spending increases that were made in non-defense areas of the budget to persuade various Democrat congressmen to get aboard the war-funding bandwagon.

Additionally, conservative political capital was spent. Wars cost political capital. Especially wars that are, or were, unpopular. This means that political time and capital that could have spent on continuing Reagan's and Gingrich's reforms, and making everybody freer and better off, were used elsewhere.

In your contemplation of that, note that Congress can only work that many hours in a session. Every day, every session you spend not working to shrink government, it grows. You and I both agree that governemnt - in America, and, of course, throughout the West - had grown far beyond any reasonable size limits. Every hour you spent debating war funding is an hour not spent shrinking and reforming government.

Was it worth it?
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #29 on: July 28, 2010, 11:36:47 PM »
And again, some insist on taking "War on Terrorism" literally.   ;/  Such are not to be taken seriously.
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Ron

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #30 on: July 28, 2010, 11:45:15 PM »
When we get done with Afghanistan we can build a new Pakistan, then a new Syria and then our most ambitious project yet, a new and better Iran!

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2010, 12:17:31 AM »
When we get done with Afghanistan we can build a new Pakistan, then a new Syria and then our most ambitious project yet, a new and better Iran!


Dude, we'll have a functioning Death Star long before Afghanistan is done.  :laugh:

MicroBalrog

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2010, 01:26:03 AM »
And again, some insist on taking "War on Terrorism" literally.   ;/  Such are not to be taken seriously.

No, I am not taking "War on Terrorism" literally.

I understand, of course, that the statement actually means: "War on Islamic Terrorists, Especially Al-Quaeda and ITs Affiliates". MY argument applies.

There are always going to be ISlamic Terrorists, and even if you could get rid of them, there's going to be some other Terrorists, or some entirely new threat.

Address my argument regarding cost and benefit, please. Not some semantic issue
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longeyes

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2010, 01:27:25 AM »
New governments come only after a people's will to fight is broken and a culture is forced to re-set itself.  That has clearly not been our goal in dealing with the Islamist threat so far.  We're trying to rebuild nations before we've really won complete and total victories.  The truth, as I see it, is that we are unwilling or afraid to zero in on the real enemies using the military power we possess.  Why that is we can probably guess.
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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2010, 12:12:04 PM »
Afghan Gov't Stability
How has our nation-building and erecting stable governments gone in Haiti?

I ask because Haiti is in better shape than Afghanistan in every metric I have investigated: GDP/head, literacy rates, miles of paved roadway/head, ethnic division...you name it, the Haitians have it all over the Afghans.

Haiti is also close to America and has a port.

Truthfully, I don't expect Haiti to have a stable gov't until all the Haitians leave Haiti.  I have similar expectations for Afghanistan, but realize it will take longer.

Also, Pakistan; which is more organized, stable, prosperous, and literate than A-stan; has trouble policing its own territory.  I doubt any "stable" A-stan gov't will do better than the Pakis.


Failed/Anarchic States
If A-stan descends into chaos, AQ & others will have only marginally more land area on which to rally & train.

They already have Yemen, a goodly portion of Pakistan, and most of sub-Saharan Africa to romp around in.  The A-stan Terrorist Tourism Bureau has a tough sell, since it is less-desirable in most every way, to coastal sub-Saharan African basket case countries.  "Come to Afghanistan for the training, stay for the goats and pre-pubescent boy-children!"


What To Do?
The Romans and others understood what it took to pacify such a place.  We would have to kill & disperse all the locals and colonize with reliable populations.  Because the problem is the Afghans.  I don't see us doing that any time soon, so another option is needed.

John Derbyshire coined the phrase "Rubble doesn't make trouble."  He refers to the practice of destroying foes and breaking their stuff in response to threats or injuries they cause us and then leaving, letting them be an object lesson to others who would seek to give us trouble.  This would involve less use of precision munitions and more bouncing of rubble.  Less "shock and awe," and more "rubble, casualties, and witnesses to tell others of our wrath."


Adventurism vs Missionary Work
When I think adventurism, I think of something exciting that will ultimately have a payoff.  Money, resources, influence, market access,  or such.  We are not getting bupkis out of A-stan, as A-stan has nothing of value.  Sticking around after destroying the Taliban and killing a bunch of AQ has gained us nothing and cost us blood, treasure, and influence as the dung flies bite the elephant in the *expletive deleted*ss.

The A-stan mess is more rightly called mission work.  We are giving of ourselves for the betterment of others.  We are subordinating our self-interest for the interest of ignorant herders and catamites.

And what is worse, is that this mission work is in vain.  They won't stay organized, they won't stay civil.  They will sink back into the muck.  We cast the pearls of our treasure and fighting men before Afghani swine who don't have the capacity to appreciate it as they tread it into the mud and manure.
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roo_ster

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2010, 12:46:24 PM »
Yes, Micro, I am well aware that the world will never be a perfectly safe place for everyone.

That is no reason not to do what we can to make it a safer for our people than it is now.  By your reasoning, there would be no point in ever trying to reform government to make it more friendly to liberty - that's another effort that will never fully succeed, yet we pursue the effort with vigor anyway.  Preventing murder, likewise.

I don't expect Afghanistan to ever be a utopia.  That is not the point of the exercise.  Even if the place never exceeds the level of current day Pakistan or the like, it will still be worlds better than it was before.  Better for them, better for the wider world, and most importantly from my perspective, better for us.

You ask how much this effort is worth, and whether what we've spent was worth it?  I suppose the answers depend entirely on how much value you place on your own life and those of your fellow citizens.  How much death and destruction are you willing to put up with in your own home, and how much are you able/willing to spend to prevent it?

Balog

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2010, 12:50:04 PM »
You pre-suppose we can successfully pacify A-stan, and that our current efforts have a material impact on the safety and security of America. I am not convinced on either of those points.
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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2010, 12:53:54 PM »
I am convinced that our efforts have had a positive impact on our security.

I am not convinced that we can successfully pacify Afghanistan, though my doubts center on our lack of resolve and willingness, not any lack of inherent capability.

Balog

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #38 on: July 29, 2010, 01:08:03 PM »
I am not convinced that we can successfully pacify Afghanistan, though my doubts center on our lack of resolve and willingness, not any lack of inherent capability.

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #39 on: July 29, 2010, 01:35:48 PM »
I don't expect Afghanistan to ever be a utopia.  That is not the point of the exercise.  Even if the place never exceeds the level of current day Pakistan or the like, it will still be worlds better than it was before.  Better for them, better for the wider world, and most importantly from my perspective, better for us.

Significantly better for some Afghans.  No material difference for American security.  Despite Paki advantages in almost every metric (relative to A-stan), Pakistan still cannot control much of its territory and terrorists still do as they please in those areas.  As good as Pakistan is not good enough, stability & development-wise, to prevent terrorist scum from operating and training.

In any event, the shape of what you are arguing for in A-stan is the former Taliban regime with some economic development slathered over it.  Is that really worth the additional 7-8 years of blood and treasure we have so far expended beyond the initial destruction of the 2001 Taliban regime and the killing of bushels full of AQ scum?

Hey, I am all for killing our enemies wherever they may be and breaking their stuff in a violent and spectacular manner.  I don't think we gain anything by then camping out in the cesspool and splashing around for years.
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longeyes

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #40 on: July 29, 2010, 01:49:34 PM »
Sure, we can "pacify" Afghanistan.  But what does pacify mean?  Does it mean mass control (occupation) with a de facto police state?  Does it mean changing the basic cultural values of tribal peoples?  Either of those options entails vast challenges and monumental expense. 

But maybe we need to pacify our own realms first?  Because our real problem is internal, not external.  If we wanted to militarily neutralize foreign threats and resistance we could do that tomorrow--given an adjustment of our moral mind-set and our political worldview.  Good luck there.
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longeyes

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #41 on: July 29, 2010, 01:52:18 PM »
Isolationism implies putting a moat around a secure stronghold.  That is a fantasy: we have no secure stronghold HERE.  We have significant existential problems internally, beginning with a rogue central government, a delinquent "idea" class, and a large population of escapists and de facto aliens.  If by isolationism you mean address our core concerns here first, maybe.

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« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 01:57:12 PM by longeyes »
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #42 on: July 29, 2010, 02:37:59 PM »

In any event, the shape of what you are arguing for in A-stan is the former Taliban regime with some economic development slathered over it.
No, that is not what I'm arguing for.

Here:

A win would be having a stable, mostly friend government in place that is capable of denying safe haven to the fanatics trying to kill us.

Pakistan is mostly allied with us, and they are mostly able and willing to launch offensives against AQ and the Taliban.  The Taliban-controlled Afghanistan was nothing like that.

Yes, there are some regions in Paki that the government doesn't control, but even in those areas the Pakis are willing to work with us as needed.  We're able to monitor and attack those regions from the air (and, I suspect, from the ground too, with spec ops doods). 

I don't think there's anywhere in Pakistan that can truly be called safe for the fanatics trying to kill us, not safe the way Taliban A-stan was.  The moment they set foot above ground they're at risk of finding their surroundings remodeled by a Hellfire or a JDAM, if not by the Paki army.

Quote
I am not convinced that we can successfully pacify Afghanistan, though my doubts center on our lack of resolve and willingness, not any lack of inherent capability.
Quote
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
If you have a worthwhile point, please make it.

I think Pakistan is a good model for what Afghanistan can become, as they're both cut from the same cloth historically speaking.  It wasn't until the coup in the 1970's and the Soviet invasion in the 80's that A-stan really started going down the tubes.  Prior to that, A-stan was a fairly normalish kinda place, at least compared to what's "normal" for the region.

If P-stan can come out of the same background and turn out mostly OK, I see little reason to doubt that A-stan can overcome the last few decades and come out OK, too.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 02:59:17 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

Tallpine

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #43 on: July 29, 2010, 03:09:33 PM »
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How much death and destruction are you willing to put up with in your own home, and how much are you able/willing to spend to prevent it?

You asking us, or the Afghans ?   =D
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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #44 on: July 29, 2010, 03:14:54 PM »
Quote
If P-stan can come out of the same background and turn out mostly OK
A horrifically corrupt nuclear power with a military dictator that either sponsors or comes damn close to sponsoring terrorist attacks on Indian soil(see the Mumbai aftermath), has the world's most wanted terrorist(s) in their borders, won't act against the Taliban unless prodded?
On the plus side - unlike Afghanistan, Pakistan has quite a few roads, significant cities, and ports.

Balog

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #45 on: July 29, 2010, 03:17:25 PM »
Quote
If you have a worthwhile point, please make it.

I'd suggest you examine the historical record re: nations attempting to pacify Afghanistan.
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richyoung

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #46 on: July 29, 2010, 03:24:11 PM »
As a military member I am sad to say that all isolationism ever got us was two world wars.

Must respectfully and strongly disagree.  There was ZERO, zip , nada reason for the US involvement in WWI  -

As to WWII, we were hardly isolationist.  We sold warships and materials to one belligerent on credit, and actively participated in attacking the warships of the other beligerent, well before Pearl Harbor.

I refer, of course to the Reuben James and Greer incidents, as well as the American aircrew in the "lend-lease" Catalina that found the Bismark, and the Flying Tigers, and the implimentation of the 8 points in the McCollum Memo - we were hardly "isolationist"....
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richyoung

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #47 on: July 29, 2010, 03:29:01 PM »
FTFY

And, would the world have turned out differently if we were?

My guess is it would. Hitler would have finished off Britain without our aid.



How?  He never managed a credible invasion threat - even stripping Western Europe of all its barges....
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MillCreek

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #48 on: July 29, 2010, 03:57:38 PM »
I'd suggest you examine the historical record re: nations attempting to pacify Afghanistan.

Be sure to ask the Brits!
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Rethinking my support for military adventurism
« Reply #49 on: July 29, 2010, 04:26:56 PM »
I'd suggest you examine the historical record re: nations attempting to pacify Afghanistan.
If you think I'm unfamiliar with Afghani history, you're mistaken. 

Actually, at the risk of sounding as snarky as you, I'd suggest you brush up on Afghanistan's history.