14th coolest December in 115 years.

[Desertdog]

 Climate Monitoring / Climate At A Glance / CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES / Help
 
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
Climate Summary
December 2009
 
The average temperature in December 2009 was 30.2 F. This was -3.2 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 14th coolest December in 115 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

2.88 inches of precipitation fell in December. This was 0.65 inches more than the 1901-2000 average, the 11th wettest such month on record. The precipitation trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.02 inches per decade. 



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Select from the options below to view graphs and tables of monthly temperature and precipitation data for the CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES , then click "submit". (Please wait 20-30 seconds) 
Data used to calculate Contiguous United States mean temperatures are from the USHCN version 2 data set. 

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

[Gewehr98]

Ok....

[Tallpine]

It was 35 below here last week.  It is supposed to be almost 50 above today.

The thermometer is bungie jumping 

[AZRedhawk44]

14th coolest December in 115 years.

It's also the 128th coolest December is 3122 years.

Or the 83rd coolest December in 1937 years.

The title of the post illustrates cherry-picking of statistics.

[Nitrogen]

The north atlantic/Arctic oscillation is a pretty well understood climate phenomenon, and studies show that it swings more wildly due to global climate change.


(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (2009, January 14). Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming.)

Basically, the NAO is a see-saw of pressure differentials between teh Azores high and Icelandic low.
The index is currently low, which impedes the westerlies, allowing Arctic air to plunge deeper into North America.  When the differences are high, the westerlies accellerate, preventing arctic air from entering the rest of north america.

A blog post explaining how the NAO influened our weather last week:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1409

[charby]

oh geez not this doo doo again

[roo_ster]

It's also the 128th coolest December is 3122 years.

Or the 83rd coolest December in 1937 years.

The title of the post illustrates cherry-picking of statistics.

Actually, the title of the post indicates the year we started to get somewhat reliable weather stations using consistent methodologies up & running around the USA. 

2009 - 115 =

Data before that year is much less reliable.

It is "cherry picking" to the extent that if one wants cherries weather data that is in any way reliable, one goes to cherry tree orchards limits one's data set to the years for which we have reasonably reliable weather data.

An interesting technique related to cherry picking could be used for weather data before that date.  That technique is known as, "pulling it outta my fourth point of contact."

[AZRedhawk44]

Actually, the title of the post indicates the year we started to get somewhat reliable weather stations using consistent methodologies up & running around the USA. 

2009 - 115 =

Data before that year is much less reliable.

It is "cherry picking" to the extent that if one wants cherries weather data that is in any way reliable, one goes to cherry tree orchards limits one's data set to the years for which we have reasonably reliable weather data.

An interesting technique related to cherry picking could be used for weather data before that date.  That technique is known as, "pulling it outta my fourth point of contact."

Attributing any significance to 115 years is the point of my post.

What does 14th in 115 years matter?  What's the significance of "14th"?

Why not tell us about the top 10 and the timeframes involved in them, and any trends we are headed towards or against as the data is analyzed?

Why not tell us how we sit over the last 100 years?

14 and 115 are both very arbitrary numbers, picked to develop sensationalism one way or another.

[Nitrogen]

oh geez not this doo doo again

I don't mean to start a whole thing about climate change again, I'm just pointing out that climate models account for it is all.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

did they predict it?  or account for it after the fact?  the latter is called doing the books with a pencil

[Desertdog]

Can anybody define "global climate change." in a way that it can be appliied to the world's weather?? 
To me, "Climate Change" just means the weather has changed.  Last July the weather was hot.  In December the weather is cold.  The climate changed and next year it will change again.  Climate Chages constantly, and I do not believe MAN has the power to change at their pleasure.

The CO2 content of the atmosphere was read as being high this past summer.  What is it now?  I would estimate that it has increased.  This is based on the fact that the natural process of plant life is now at a real slow pace since it is so cold that the plants are more domant and not growing.  Come Spring thaw and the uptake of the accumulated CO2 will increase and lower the CO2 content as it does every spring.

[drewtam]

Can anybody define "global climate change." in a way that it can be appliied to the world's weather?? 
To me, "Climate Change" just means the weather has changed.  Last July the weather was hot.  In December the weather is cold.  The climate changed and next year it will change again.  Climate Chages constantly, and I do not believe MAN has the power to change at their pleasure.

The CO2 content of the atmosphere was read as being high this past summer.  What is it now?  I would estimate that it has increased.  This is based on the fact that the natural process of plant life is now at a real slow pace since it is so cold that the plants are more domant and not growing.  Come Spring thaw and the uptake of the accumulated CO2 will increase and lower the CO2 content as it does every spring.

Climate change does not equal change in the weather.

Climate change is about trends in seasons, years, and areas.
Are North American summers getting hotter or colder over the past 10years?
Over the past 100years?
Are some parts of the world becoming desert while others become more rainy?

Sometimes the discussion is about world "average" temperature trends over decades.


To use a metaphor... what is the world population situation?
At one extreme:
I am married and have only 1 child in my 2 bedroom house. Our pop trend is up
So for me its a problem. Time to add on or buy a bigger house.
But that is the population in my house. This is like the local weather patterns.


At the other extreme:
The world population is 6 billion. Out of a limit that is probably 15 billion. With a pop trend that is upwards.
This is like global avg temps. Its kinda meaningless.

Because the western european and Russian trend is way down.
China's trend is down, but the population is already high.
India pop is high, and trend is higher.
US pop is middle density, trend is flat, to slight increase.

[charby]

Can anybody define "global climate change." in a way that it can be appliied to the world's weather?? 
To me, "Climate Change" just means the weather has changed.  Last July the weather was hot.  In December the weather is cold.  The climate changed and next year it will change again.  Climate Chages constantly, and I do not believe MAN has the power to change at their pleasure.

The CO2 content of the atmosphere was read as being high this past summer.  What is it now?  I would estimate that it has increased.  This is based on the fact that the natural process of plant life is now at a real slow pace since it is so cold that the plants are more domant and not growing.  Come Spring thaw and the uptake of the accumulated CO2 will increase and lower the CO2 content as it does every spring.

easy, climates change

At one time North America was a tropical forest, we have coal reserves to prove it

At one time North America was covered in glaciers, we have geological evidence to prove it.

Granted the tropical time occured when the continent was in a different place and part of Pangea before the drift occured, but we have warmed up since the last ice age and there was a warm period between the ice ages before then.

[Nitrogen]

Can anybody define "global climate change." in a way that it can be appliied to the world's weather?? 

No.  Climate and weather are two very different things.

Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and numerous other meteorological elements in a given region over long periods of time. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these same elements over periods up to two weeks.

The best you can do is postulate how global climate change can affect the worlds weather.  The study I referened earlier was one of many ways that the overall warming of the earth will effect day to day weather.

[Desertdog]

The study I referened earlier was one of many ways that the overall warming of the earth will effect day to day weather.

GW is better than GCooling, as there is more food and less sickness. 

[roo_ster]

Attributing any significance to 115 years is the point of my post.

What does 14th in 115 years matter?  What's the significance of "14th"?

Why not tell us about the top 10 and the timeframes involved in them, and any trends we are headed towards or against as the data is analyzed?

Why not tell us how we sit over the last 100 years?

14 and 115 are both very arbitrary numbers, picked to develop sensationalism one way or another.

Oh, please.

I explained 115 and 14 is even easier, since that is what we just experienced and DEC2009 is the subject of hte cryptically named "CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
Climate Summary December 2009" web page.  It also tells us how it stacks up relative to the other 115 Decembers on record.  It doesn't quite make the top 10%, IOW, but is still pretty damn chilly.

115 & 14 are actually much more useful to a casual reader than stating the mean temp, as they provide context.

The difference one finds in ranking if you choose from the year 1900-2009:
DEC2009 is the 13th chilliest

The difference one finds in ranking if you choose from the year 1909-2009 (somehow the Gold Standard):
DEC2009 is the 13th chilliest

Yep, I'm glad someone was able to call shenanigans on such blatant...whatever.

I will repeat: 115 years is significant, as it is the farthest back we can go for relatively reliable data.  It is equivalent to saying, "DEC2009 is the 14th coldest DEC on record."  Everything before 1895 for CONUS is much less reliable.


Playing with the site's little temp app is of interest. 

Whatever three intervals for mean DEC temps (1895/1900/1909-2009), the trend is approx +0.1degF per decade or +1degF per century.

Plug in 1998-2009 and the trend is -2.7degF per decade, -27degF per century.

This tells us several things flat-out and implies others.

[FloridaEllie]

Climate Monitoring / Climate At A Glance / CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES / Help
 
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
Climate Summary
December 2009
 
The average temperature in December 2009 was 30.2 F. This was -3.2 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 14th coolest December in 115 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

2.88 inches of precipitation fell in December. This was 0.65 inches more than the 1901-2000 average, the 11th wettest such month on record. The precipitation trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.02 inches per decade. 

I had a science teacher in a class last semester that told us we couldn't trust any of the temperature number coming back from the measuring stations because of the types of areas they were placed in.  But, it's been a hot winter in SoCal - no sweaters this year, and I get so sick of hearing from my classmates that this is "global warming".  I wanna tell them that I've got family back in Florida that are getting snowed on for the first time in their lives!!

[Nick1911]

I had a science teacher in a class last semester that told us we couldn't trust any of the temperature number coming back from the measuring stations because of the types of areas they were placed in.  But, it's been a hot winter in SoCal - no sweaters this year, and I get so sick of hearing from my classmates that this is "global warming".  I wanna tell them that I've got family back in Florida that are getting snowed on for the first time in their lives!!

It appears that you are a newly registered member.

Welcome to our corner of the world! 

[BridgeRunner]

Welcome to our corner of the world! 

+1 

[makattak]

I had a science teacher in a class last semester that told us we couldn't trust any of the temperature number coming back from the measuring stations because of the types of areas they were placed in.  But, it's been a hot winter in SoCal - no sweaters this year, and I get so sick of hearing from my classmates that this is "global warming".  I wanna tell them that I've got family back in Florida that are getting snowed on for the first time in their lives!!

This is a problem of humanity. Looking at the whole picture and not weighting your personal observations higher than others is very hard.

I'll illustrate it with a quote I can no longer attribute (I think Adam Smith, but cannot confirm that):

Man is more prone to care about a thorn in his dog's paw than a million starving men in China.

[AJ Dual]

I had a science teacher in a class last semester that told us we couldn't trust any of the temperature number coming back from the measuring stations because of the types of areas they were placed in.  But, it's been a hot winter in SoCal - no sweaters this year, and I get so sick of hearing from my classmates that this is "global warming".  I wanna tell them that I've got family back in Florida that are getting snowed on for the first time in their lives!!

Could be the "Urban Heat Island" effect. Concrete and asphalt parking lots, tar roofs etc. All make urban and suburban areas warmer than the actual surrounding area.

As urbanization increases, so would the number of measuring locations.

I can't find it now, but someone also did a pictoral of several "official" temperature monitoring stations and showing how they were placed next to warm outflow water from power plants, in the direct blast of air conditioning heat exchangers etc... 

[StopTheGrays]

Could be the "Urban Heat Island" effect. Concrete and asphalt parking lots, tar roofs etc. All make urban and suburban areas warmer than the actual surrounding area.

As urbanization increases, so would the number of measuring locations.

I can't find it now, but someone also did a pictoral of several "official" temperature monitoring stations and showing how they were placed next to warm outflow water from power plants, in the direct blast of air conditioning heat exchangers etc...  

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/
http://www.surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm Better one.

[El Tejon]

It was so cold last December that Al Gore had his hands in his own pockets.

[AZRedhawk44]

It was so cold last December that Al Gore had his hands in his own pockets.

http://instantrimshot.com/rimshot.swf

[roo_ster]

I had a science teacher in a class last semester that told us we couldn't trust any of the temperature number coming back from the measuring stations because of the types of areas they were placed in.  But, it's been a hot winter in SoCal - no sweaters this year, and I get so sick of hearing from my classmates that this is "global warming".  I wanna tell them that I've got family back in Florida that are getting snowed on for the first time in their lives!!

First:
Welcome!

Second:
The short answer is that your science teacher is correct.  The variations caused by the "urban heat island" effect are -in and of themselves- cause to doubt the data as they introduce variation greater than the supposed temp increase due to AGW.

The funny part is, is that the global warmists revise those temps upwards to "account" for this.  This was demonstrated with the Australia data a few weeks back.  High-freaking-larious.  Toss in noise due to different equipment over the years and you've got some pretty noisy data, sho nuff.