COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[charby]

I think people forget a lot of things. When Covid-19 really reared it's ugly head, there was a prediction of what % of the infected were going to be die to Covid-19, the shutdowns weren't about saving any of those predicted deaths, it was about not having them all getting sick and dying at the same time and overloading the hospitals. It's still a very contagious disease and before people start bitching about the shutdowns, maybe reflect on that shutdowns seem to be working in slowing the spread.

[MechAg94]

I think people forget a lot of things. When Covid-19 really reared it's ugly head, there was a prediction of what % of the infected were going to be die to Covid-19, the shutdowns weren't about saving any of those predicted deaths, it was about not having them all getting sick and dying at the same time and overloading the hospitals. It's still a very contagious disease and before people start bitching about the shutdowns, maybe reflect on that shutdowns seem to be working in slowing the spread.

It was also supposed to be two weeks. 

[charby]

It was also supposed to be two weeks. 

I don't recall anything about just two weeks in my state, even in mid-march, it was talked about at least 4-6 weeks. Schools were closed 4 weeks first.

[Perd Hapley]

I think people forget a lot of things. When Covid-19 really reared it's ugly head, there was a prediction of what % of the infected were going to be die to Covid-19, the shutdowns weren't about saving any of those predicted deaths, it was about not having them all getting sick and dying at the same time and overloading the hospitals. It's still a very contagious disease and before people start bitching about the shutdowns, maybe reflect on that shutdowns seem to be working in slowing the spread.

I agree, but there are a lot of facets to "bi**hing about the shutdowns." Obviously, there’s the crazy stuff, like plucking a lone paddle-boarder out of the empty ocean, and putting him in a holding cell, so that he can more successfully quarantine. Or the mayor of Chicago telling people they should put off their styling appointments, only to later post her own stylist visit to social media, because personal hygiene is very important to her, you see. Or police responding to an oh-so-dangerous drive-in church service, while the Sonic drive-in restaurant down the street is humming right along.

But that’s just the crazy stuff.

Can we blame people for being skeptical of the models? Weren’t the models way off, even if they factored in the shut-down? And we’ve put how many people on unemployment for this?

Which aspect are we talking about?

[makattak]

I think people forget a lot of things. When Covid-19 really reared it's ugly head, there was a prediction of what % of the infected were going to be die to Covid-19, the shutdowns weren't about saving any of those predicted deaths, it was about not having them all getting sick and dying at the same time and overloading the hospitals. It's still a very contagious disease and before people start bitching about the shutdowns, maybe reflect on that shutdowns seem to be working in slowing the spread.

Except the predictions of numbers of fatalities were supposed to already reflect the shutdowns and social distancing.

Now, to claim we aren't having anywhere near the number of deaths or infections because of the shutdowns is post-hoc justification of wrong models.

The models are wrong. I am not angry about that- an unknown virus is bound to cause all kinds of issues with trying to predict its danger.

So we acted hastily and mistakenly on wrong models. It sucks, but that happens.

My problem is that NOW, it seems no one wants to open things back up because SOME PEOPLE WILL DIE!!!!

Well, yes, and that's going to happen whether we do it now or do it later. The difference will ONLY be in how many people die of starvation, despair, or deprivation due to the economic consequences.

According to the "experts" we can't just beat the virus. Whenever we open back up it will spread again.

If that's the case, then let's do it now to avoid the deaths that economic turmoil will cause.

(And don't get me started on the treating of Strasburg, VA the same as Faifax, VA. Substitute your state's rural and urban areas to apply to your situation.)

[Perd Hapley]

I don't recall anything about just two weeks in my state, even in mid-march, it was talked about at least 4-6 weeks. Schools were closed 4 weeks first.

We were told, at least around here, that the stay-at-home order was till the end of the month. A week ago, we were blithely informed it was extended "indefinitely," and would be reevaluated in mid-May. I can't blame people for finding that a little less than acceptable. I mean, you tell people their lives are on hold for x time period, that's one thing. Tell them, well, you're on unemployment until whenever. Yeah, you'd expect people to get fed up with that.

[Perd Hapley]

Except the predictions of numbers of fatalities were supposed to already reflect the shutdowns and social distancing.

Now, to claim we aren't having anywhere near the number of deaths or infections because of the shutdowns is post-hoc justification of wrong models.

The models are wrong. I am not angry about that- an unknown virus is bound to cause all kinds of issues with trying to predict its danger.

So we acted hastily and mistakenly on wrong models. It sucks, but that happens.

My problem is that NOW, it seems no one wants to open things back up because SOME PEOPLE WILL DIE!!!!

Well, yes, and that's going to happen whether we do it now or do it later. The difference will ONLY be in how many people die of starvation, despair, or deprivation due to the economic consequences.

According to the "experts" we can't just beat the virus. Whenever we open back up it will spread again.

If that's the case, then let's do it now to avoid the deaths that economic turmoil will cause.

(And don't get me started on the treating of Strasburg, VA the same as Faifax, VA. Substitute your state's rural and urban areas to apply to your situation.)

How dare you talk about people dying from economic problems? That is something only the Left gets to talk about, and they're not talking about that now. So shut up, you.

[charby]

Except the predictions of numbers of fatalities were supposed to already reflect the shutdowns and social distancing.

Now, to claim we aren't having anywhere near the number of deaths or infections because of the shutdowns is post-hoc justification of wrong models.

The models are wrong. I am not angry about that- an unknown virus is bound to cause all kinds of issues with trying to predict its danger.

So we acted hastily and mistakenly on wrong models. It sucks, but that happens.

My problem is that NOW, it seems no one wants to open things back up because SOME PEOPLE WILL DIE!!!!

Well, yes, and that's going to happen whether we do it now or do it later. The difference will ONLY be in how many people die of starvation, despair, or deprivation due to the economic consequences.

According to the "experts" we can't just beat the virus. Whenever we open back up it will spread again.

If that's the case, then let's do it now to avoid the deaths that economic turmoil will cause.

(And don't get me started on the treating of Strasburg, VA the same as Faifax, VA. Substitute your state's rural and urban areas to apply to your situation.)

Iowa was chugging along quite nicely not really having outbreaks other than in nursing homes, then bam essential workers of the packing plants started getting Covid-19 in significant numbers. Many packing house employees due to lower wages live in close quarters with multiple residents and multiple generations, usually both spouses have to work so it's easy to spread it around from the hot spot. I think May is going to be really shitty in Iowa and other states with a lot of meat packing plants.

[Perd Hapley]

Because the Surgeon General said we were going to have a Pearl Harbor or Sept 11th experience a couple of weeks ago, I went looking for some analysis from the media about whether that had come to fruition. I'm surprised how little I was able to find on it.

https://www.messenger-inquirer.com/news/covid-19-is-rapidly-becoming-americas-leading-cause-of-death/article_7b36b498-6722-5fa3-ba68-02cf0d98699a.html

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/opinion/times/story/2020/apr/19/sohn-covid-19-deaths-becoming-no-1-killer/520952/

The SG also said it would be like Pearl Harbor all across the country, but haven't the vast majority of fatalities been in NYC, and a few other hot spots?

[makattak]

Iowa was chugging along quite nicely not really having outbreaks other than in nursing homes, then bam essential workers of the packing plants started getting Covid-19 in significant numbers. Many packing house employees due to lower wages live in close quarters with multiple residents and multiple generations, usually both spouses have to work so it's easy to spread it around from the hot spot. I think May is going to be really shitty in Iowa and other states with a lot of meat packing plants.

So what you're saying is that certain professions are more dangerous than others and maybe we ought to do something about allowing the skirting employment and housing regulations with regard to illegals?

[charby]

So what you're saying is that certain professions are more dangerous than others and maybe we ought to do something about allowing the skirting employment and housing regulations with regard to illegals?

As long as 5 companies own 85% of the meat packing industry, we all know that isn't going to happen. They own elected officials.

[Angel Eyes]

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

[DittoHead]

My problem is that NOW, it seems no one wants to open things back up because SOME PEOPLE WILL DIE!!!!

Well, yes, and that's going to happen whether we do it now or do it later. The difference will ONLY be in how many people die of starvation, despair, or deprivation due to the economic consequences.

According to the "experts" we can't just beat the virus. Whenever we open back up it will spread again.

Testing, contact tracing, and quarantining infected & exposed individuals can greatly reduce the spread of the virus and doing that effectively will result in fewer deaths. See South Korea.
Part of the reason for shutting down was to significantly increase those capabilities while slowing the rate of new infections. We were way behind where we needed to be and the idea was to pause while those systems get caught up. Stuff like this too.
Are we caught up enough yet that it won't get out of control? According the "experts" we aren't but it's a judgement call.

[Perd Hapley]

Testing, contact tracing, and quarantining infected & exposed individuals can greatly reduce the spread of the virus and doing that effectively will result in fewer deaths. See South Korea.
Part of the reason for shutting down was to significantly increase those capabilities while slowing the rate of new infections. We were way behind where we needed to be and the idea was to pause while those systems get caught up. Stuff like this too.
Are we caught up enough yet that it won't get out of control? According the "experts" we aren't but it's a judgement call.

I don't know if we're caught up enough. We are, at 20-some-million, unemployed enough.

[charby]

Turkey Kill plant in IA has 60 workers test positive for Covid 19

[makattak]

I don't know if we're caught up enough. We are, at 20-some-million, unemployed enough.

My wife and I were discussing tonight and we expect it will be a long road back for restaurants: even after the lockdown is ended, people won't be flocking to pack into a restaurant for some time.

[Perd Hapley]

My wife and I were discussing tonight and we expect it will be a long road back for restaurants: even after the lockdown is ended, people won't be flocking to pack into a restaurant for some time.

When we emerge, blinking, into the post-quarantine future, only Taco Bell will remain.

[Jamisjockey]

My wife and I were discussing tonight and we expect it will be a long road back for restaurants: even after the lockdown is ended, people won't be flocking to pack into a restaurant for some time.

Depends on where you live.  I think in states that aren't hard hit by covid, people won't be as worried.

[Ben]

Interesting thread on vaccine development. I was unaware of the past research of coronavirus in animals. The researcher indicates they have been trying to find viable animal vaccines for decades.

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/04/25/chief-science-officer-of-angstrom-bio-explains-the-challenges-to-developing-a-vaccine-for-covid-19/

[charby]

Interesting thread on vaccine development. I was unaware of the past research of coronavirus in animals. The researcher indicates they have been trying to find viable animal vaccines for decades.

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/04/25/chief-science-officer-of-angstrom-bio-explains-the-challenges-to-developing-a-vaccine-for-covid-19/

Coronavirus are usually a big time pork killer. Here is an article about the last coronavirus outbreak in pigs in the US.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/coronavirus-spread-through-us-pigs-in-2013-heres-how-it-was-stopped-180974646/

[RocketMan]

My wife and I were discussing tonight and we expect it will be a long road back for restaurants: even after the lockdown is ended, people won't be flocking to pack into a restaurant for some time.

It will be a long road back for the restaurant industry because many will have gone out of business entirely.  We've seen many in this area already go out of business.  Also, there were some new ones locally just on the verge of opening, or that had just opened, that never had a chance.  They're gone, too.

[RocketMan]

Except the predictions of numbers of fatalities were supposed to already reflect the shutdowns and social distancing.

Now, to claim we aren't having anywhere near the number of deaths or infections because of the shutdowns is post-hoc justification of wrong models.

The models are wrong. I am not angry about that- an unknown virus is bound to cause all kinds of issues with trying to predict its danger.

So we acted hastily and mistakenly on wrong models. It sucks, but that happens.

These would be the same models that were used to predict the effects of the SARS and MERS pandemics.  SARS and MERS are kissing cousins of COVID-19.
We never learn from history.

[WLJ]

These would be the same models that were used to predict the effects of the SARS and MERS pandemics.  SARS and MERS are kissing cousins of COVID-19.
We never learn from history.

What? And break with tradition?

[Angel Eyes]

[K Frame]

Lime? Water too soft?

No. It was supposed to help soften the hair so that it could be easily scraped out.