COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[MillCreek]

^^^What Idaho Health told you regarding re-testing and resuming normal activities is best practices as per the CDC and other authorities.  You will likely be testing positive for months.

[Ron]

^^^What Idaho Health told you regarding re-testing and resuming normal activities is best practices as per the CDC and other authorities.  You will likely be testing positive for months.

You mean folks without active infections that aren't infectious can test positive?

Ya don't say ...

So much for the positivity rate being reported breathlessly daily in Illinois being of any use.

[Ben]

^^^What Idaho Health told you regarding re-testing and resuming normal activities is best practices as per the CDC and other authorities.  You will likely be testing positive for months.

So how does that work with "go about your business after ten days" if an employer or somebody wants documentation of a negative test (not complaining - genuinely curious)?

[Fly320s]

So how does that work with "go about your business after ten days" if an employer or somebody wants documentation of a negative test (not complaining - genuinely curious)?

It doesn't work, but the government either doesn't care or is actively trying to control you.

Also, many foreign countries require a negative test within 3-5 days of arrival.  If any of you plan to travel, considering buying trip insurance or finding a Covid testing location that will provide you with negative results.

[MillCreek]

So how does that work with "go about your business after ten days" if an employer or somebody wants documentation of a negative test (not complaining - genuinely curious)?

If the person has not already had COVID, than a negative test is indeed proof of lack of active COVID infection.  If the person has had COVID, then future antibody testing will come back as positive for a while even if the patient has no symptoms.  We have been writing a lot of letters to employers and others explaining the concept of continued positive antibody testing after COVID gets better, and a negative test is not possible in that situation.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html

[dogmush]

So how does that work with "go about your business after ten days" if an employer or somebody wants documentation of a negative test (not complaining - genuinely curious)?

My employees have gotten letters from a medical provider that says they are non-contagious per CDC guidelines and can return to work.  The VA literally has a form they fill out with the patients name, dates, and signature of Dr.

[sumpnz]

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/12/15/have-covid-19-lockdowns-saved-any-lives-lets-take-a-look-at-federal-data-n1212997

[DittoHead]

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/12/15/have-covid-19-lockdowns-saved-any-lives-lets-take-a-look-at-federal-data-n1212997

I'll get around to reading that article later but from a quick skim, it seems pretty likely they are making the same mistake...

People make some pretty big mistakes when they don't understand the data they're looking at.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/12/06/yes-total-deaths-in-the-u-s-are-up/

[sumpnz]

They explain the 2019 and 2020 data as “provisional” per NCHS or CDC depending on time frame.  Even if you assume the most recent 10 weeks or so are undercounting by 10-20% (60-70% for last week, 5% for 10 weeks ago per the claims in the amgreatness.com link, so maybe 55-110k total deaths undercounted) the total mortality for the year it won’t really change the conclusions as that is more or less in the noise of a full year’s data.  And most likely the most recent 10 weeks have been adjusted to estimate those undercounts, so the error is probably closer 5-20k total undercounts.

[dogmush]

Pundits are pulling CDC's data and saying there are no excess deaths in 2020.

CDC is looking at their own data and saying there were excess deaths in 2020.

I suspect CDC is more familiar with the data, time lags, and what is statistically "normal" then the people misreading their data.  YMMV.

[MillCreek]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/16/major-ceos-signal-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-could-be-on-the-way/

I will be interested to see if anyone outside of healthcare and first responders are mandated to get the vaccine.

[Cliffh]

"Essential" workers?

[Angel Eyes]

"Essential" workers?

https://youtu.be/b5ag8ME4oOY?t=26

[Ron]

Pundits are pulling CDC's data and saying there are no excess deaths in 2020.

CDC is looking at their own data and saying there were excess deaths in 2020.

I suspect CDC is more familiar with the data, time lags, and what is statistically "normal" then the people misreading their data.  YMMV.

A couple of good reads on excess deaths. As we already knew, it has been brutal on the elderly and already compromised.

https://www.unz.com/isteve/graphing-total-deaths-in-the-us-in-2020/

https://wmbriggs.com/post/33680/

[RoadKingLarry]

"Essential" workers?

"Essential" because sacrificial is too harsh.

[makattak]

A couple of good reads on excess deaths. As we already knew, it has been brutal on the elderly and already compromised.

https://www.unz.com/isteve/graphing-total-deaths-in-the-us-in-2020/

https://wmbriggs.com/post/33680/

There's a problem with that analysis. The definition of "COVID Deaths" is rather... loose: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/12/15/grand-county-covid-deaths/

Two gunshot victims were counted as "COVID Deaths" (Note, out of 5 total "COVID Deaths", making up 40% of the number!)

The data is RIFE with this trash accounting.

So, IF we are having excess deaths, we have no idea if those deaths were caused by COVID OR by the absolutely insane overreaction to a new flu.

I would be willing to bet the lockdowns killed as many people as COVID has, but we classified all those deaths as "COVID Deaths", so no one could tell the idiot "elites" running the country are more dangerous than the disease.

Also note, that interview is from two days ago. It seems the people counting COVID deaths HAVEN'T "cleaned up all that faulty data" as others on this forum have claimed.

We're still getting garbage data on the Wuhan Flu. Because we are ruled by garbage people.

[Ron]

Sailer is on board with the girly hysteria for sure, Briggs is much more balanced.

Anyone who has been here knows I agree with your position that the reported numbers are all junk.

Total deaths are total deaths though and are harder to fudge, up or down.

We won't really know total deaths until sometime in the spring.

All "excess deaths" will not be covid related deaths. Many will be though as a complicating factor with comorbidities.

[Ben]

So regarding the testing positive for three months thing, this is what I would be worried about:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-problems-with-covid-testing-for-flights-11608128492

You can't read the whole thing without being a subscriber, but the tease gives you the gist. So if I want to fly somewhere next week and walk into the airport and get tested and come up positive, I guess I'm screwed?

I know a few of you mentioned physician's letters, but that would only apply if you knew about the three months of coming up positive after getting over the virus. I would not have known about that if Idaho Health didn't tell me, so I could easily have booked a flight to visit family for Christmas, shown up at the airport and been banned from the flight because  I tested positive at the airline test station.

This doesn't seem to help airlines either, if it makes it harder for them to get passengers, even if due to their own rules.

[Fly320s]

I haven't heard about any US airlines requiring COVID testing, but I'm sure some will.

There are some countries that require a negative test within 3 days prior to entering the country.  Three days isn't enough time to test positive and then get a doctor's note to override the test results.  And some countries might not accept that doctor's note.

[Ron]

It will interesting to see what percentage of excess deaths can be attributed to the historic bloodshed and rise in murders across the countries Democrat run big cities.

[dogmush]

It will interesting to see what percentage of excess deaths can be attributed to the historic bloodshed and rise in murders across the countries Democrat run big cities.

Not that much.  While the violence was worse this summer, it wasn't all that much worse, and it didn't kill that many.  In general, homicide is way down the list of things that kill Americans every year, so even with all this summer's sportiness, you probably have a single digit percentage rise in a cause of death that is pretty small, all told.

Roll that up and I suspect the increase in deaths due to rioting will be under 1 percent of the total.

[Ron]

Not that much.  While the violence was worse this summer, it wasn't all that much worse, and it didn't kill that many.  In general, homicide is way down the list of things that kill Americans every year, so even with all this summer's sportiness, you probably have a single digit percentage rise in a cause of death that is pretty small, all told.

Roll that up and I suspect the increase in deaths due to rioting will be under 1 percent of the total.

yea, just got back here from looking at the numbers.

28% increase in murders across our largest cities equals out to maybe roughly 1500 extra deaths compared to '19

[Ben]

Glad I don't live in Germany. I happened to talk to several relatives yesterday, and apparently the krauts have revived the Gestapo. They were all talking about how they were going to get together for Christmas with the ten person limit. That is as of a couple of days ago down to five, so they've all canceled their plans. One cousin said they would have broken the rules, but apparently the cops there are actively enforcing the rules and curfews and everyone is afraid of being arrested.

I have a range of relatives that run the political gamut, from very conservative, to apolitical, to one branch an aunt married into that are practically commies in their leftiness. The two former groups are pissed to one degree or another. The commies are happy about the rules.

[Ron]

I was scolded by a teenage girl (a customer) yesterday for pulling down my mask and taking a swig of water out of my bottle.

The brain damage inflicted on this countries people by the fear mongering is incalculable.

[Ben]