COVID19 predictions

[charby]

I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.

I'm still sticking with this, and were going to have at least 3 waves of it. Mostly because most people can't economically sit this out for much longer, including myself. I may be in the 2 million dead, already have a weak heart from congenital heart disease.

[MechAg94]

Why do you think the 2nd and 3rd waves will be 10 times worse than the current one?

[charby]

Why do you think the 2nd and 3rd waves will be 10 times worse than the current one?

... because more people wouldn't take it as serious because they don't personally know anyone with symptoms or died from it. Crazy number of people who still call it a hoax. This wave isn't over with yet either, at least not where I live, peak keeps getting pushed down the road.

[RocketMan]

I'm still sticking with this, and were going to have at least 3 waves of it. Mostly because most people can't economically sit this out for much longer, including myself. I may be in the 2 million dead, already have a weak heart from congenital heart disease.

Why would you think that?  SARS and MERS are in the same family of viruses, and they made only one pass.  The computer models predicting their effects on this country were also wildly out of whack, just like they have been with COVID-19.

[charby]

Why would you think that?  SARS and MERS are in the same family of viruses, and they made only one pass.  The computer models predicting their effects on this country were also wildly out of whack, just like they have been with COVID-19.

SARS didn't spread this fast and it was controlled pretty fast globally. MERS was pretty much contained to the middle east and controlled there, IIRC.

This one has been a fustercluck from the start, no where near the control of SARS spread. 

[Perd Hapley]

Crazy number of people who still call it a hoax.

Do you have any cites on that? The only poll I've seen is from mid-March. It was 13%.

[charby]

Do you have any cites on that? The only poll I've seen is from mid-March. It was 13%.

Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.

[Perd Hapley]

Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.

Are the hoaxers sneaking into Covid wards and licking the patients?

[MechAg94]

Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.

But we are not anywhere near 2-3%.  We still are not quite sure just how many people were actually exposed.  I think we need to be careful making assumptions about that.  It leads politicians to make hasty decisions and abuse emergency powers. 

[charby]

Are the hoaxers sneaking into Covid wards and licking the patients?

More like all the infected in the packing plants shopping at Mao-Mart or xyz grocery store, touching things, then hoaxers shop their too, touch the same surfaces and their own mucus membranes, then catch the Covid, then a % of them die.

[charby]

But we are not anywhere near 2-3%.  We still are not quite sure just how many people were actually exposed.  I think we need to be careful making assumptions about that.  It leads politicians to make hasty decisions and abuse emergency powers. 

We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.

[bedlamite]

We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.

Easy way to keep the confirmed cases down and CFR up is to not test very many. IA has only tested 60K so far. Same problem here in WI.

[BobR]

We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.

Known infected....there's the rub. Recently a gentleman dropped his motorcycle on himself and broke a rib or four and had to be admitted. He tested positive for COVID 19, absolutely asymptomatic. He would have never been tested if not for the motorcycle accident. Just how many people like him or out there we will never know but I believe it is not an insignificant number. BTW, he was older than me so he is no spring chicken.

bob

[Perd Hapley]

More like all the infected in the packing plants shopping at Mao-Mart or xyz grocery store, touching things, then hoaxers shop their too, touch the same surfaces and their own mucus membranes, then catch the Covid, then a % of them die.

I guess that would be realistic, if non-hoaxers were really that much more cautious than hoaxers. I'm not so sure.

[zxcvbob]

I think it's a hoax (the disease is real, but we are being lied to about it on all fronts)  *and* I am being very cautious in case it's not.  I'm also getting pissed about all the lies.

[charby]

I guess that would be realistic, if non-hoaxers were really that much more cautious than hoaxers. I'm not so sure.

Well I use paper towels on bathroom doors and have hand sanitizer in my rides, never did that before mid march, ever, even in really sketchy places.

[charby]

Easy way to keep the confirmed cases down and CFR up is to not test very many. IA has only tested 60K so far. Same problem here in WI.

Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab

[Ron]

We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.

According to bullshit numbers as has been pointed out repeatedly.

[cordex]

Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab

Yes, that's the problem everywhere.  The US has run under 8 million tests (almost twice as many as Russia - the next closest, country for which I've seen test counts) - and many people who get tested are tested multiple times.  Regardless, at best under 3% of the US population have undergone testing.

Which, as you know, proves MechAg94's point.  If you don't know the denominator, you don't know the rate.

[Ron]

Briggs, a statistician and blogger I read regularly, turned up on a local radio show I turn on during my morning commute.

The whole segment is good but Briggs starts at the six minute mark.

Myself, I've been balancing Briggs with Taleb to help me navigate the current landscape regarding the numbers.

As time goes by Briggs has been pretty much in alignment with reality,it's not as bad as the hype. Taleb deals with robustness to Black Swan events and was in favor of the extreme overreaction. Taleb also is part of a hedge fund that made billions recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=124&v=OpWHhZszhbs&feature=emb_logo

https://wmbriggs.com/

[MechAg94]

Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab

If you know that is a problem, then you know that the total "known cases" are a flawed number.  Why do you keep using statistics using that number? 

IMO, overestimating the problem is just as bad as underestimating the problem.  If you want to make sure there is a second or third wave, keep overestimating the death rates.  You will just make people distrustful to the point they won't believe anything about this disease. 

[Perd Hapley]

Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.

For comparison:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2031325/One-seven-believe-American-Government-staged-9-11-attacks-conspiracy.html

A survey, which interviewed 1,000 people in the UK and the same number in the U.S., found that 14 per cent of Britons 15 per cent of Americans think the [Bush] administration was involved in the tragedy.

According to these links, 29% of us believe "they" are withholding a cure for Covid-19, and the same percentage believe in Bigfoot. Wonder if it's the same people?

https://www.salina.com/zz/news/20200424/nearly-one-third-of-americans-believe-coronavirus-vaccine-exists-and-is-being-withheld-survey-finds

https://www.salina.com/zz/news/20200424/nearly-one-third-of-americans-believe-coronavirus-vaccine-exists-and-is-being-withheld-survey-finds

Nearly one-third of Americans believe a vaccine already exists to prevent coronavirus infection but is being withheld from the public, while nearly half believe the COVID-19 virus was created in a lab.

[charby]

If you know that is a problem, then you know that the total "known cases" are a flawed number.  Why do you keep using statistics using that number?  

IMO, overestimating the problem is just as bad as underestimating the problem.  If you want to make sure there is a second or third wave, keep overestimating the death rates.  You will just make people distrustful to the point they won't believe anything about this disease.  

Still a representative sample of those infected, most stats work that way, it's not possible to sample an entire population.

To me the packing plants and other places that have low paid employees working side by side as essential employees is similar to the liberty boats in the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic and it came in multiple waves.

[charby]

Yes, that's the problem everywhere.  The US has run under 8 million tests (almost twice as many as Russia - the next closest, country for which I've seen test counts) - and many people who get tested are tested multiple times.  Regardless, at best under 3% of the US population have undergone testing.

Which, as you know, proves MechAg94's point.  If you don't know the denominator, you don't know the rate.

Do you ever know the true denominator on such a large population?

[cordex]

Do you ever know the true denominator on such a large population?

Not without random-sample antibody testing, no.  Which we are not yet doing in significant enough numbers.  They typically retrospectively estimate it after the fact, but not in the moment.

Still a representative sample of those infected

No, it is is not.

They are not testing a random sample of people.  If they were that would be different.  They are testing people with sufficiently serious symptoms to warrant it, and people with exposure to people with serious symptoms.  Even then those tests are being rationed.