Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: roo_ster on May 11, 2013, 09:58:14 PM
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http://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/05/news-flash-crops-not-rotting-in-fields.html
The Fresno Bee reports an epochal breakthrough in economic theory is taking place in the fields of the Central Valley of California. As everybody who took Econ 101 in college knows, the Law of Supply and Demand says that shortages and surpluses push wages toward market-clearing prices. Except that, as we all know from reading hundreds of newspaper stories rewritten from press releases issued by growers' PR guys, the Law of Supply and Demand doesn't apply in the case of farm labor. There, the only alternative to Crops Rotting in the Fields is for the government to let growers import more foreign peasants. (Also, it would help if the government would round up the workers for the growers when they try to run away -- see the Dred Scot decision of 1857 for some common sense on the necessity of a Fugitive Slave Worker Act.)
But, now, in what sounds like a Nobel-worthy innovation, it turns out the Law of Supply and Demand is actually working in the Central Valley the same way it works everywhere else
Who would have thought that basic economic principles applied to farm labor?
"It is getting very competitive out there and employers are having to offer incentives to find the labor they need," said Oscar Ramos, a grape farmer and Kingsburg-based farm-labor contractor. "And one of those incentives is higher wages."
The horror.
Do read the whole thing. Quite a bit more interesting data.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/29/the-u-s-is-running-out-of-farm-workers-immigration-reform-may-not-help/
It’s a simple story,” says Edward Taylor, an agricultural economist at U.C. Davis and one of the study’s authors. ”By the mid-twentieth century, Americans stopped doing farm work. And we were only able to avoid a farm-labor crisis by bringing in workers from a nearby country that was at an earlier stage of development. Now that era is coming to an end.”
Taylor and his co-authors argue that the United States could face a sharp adjustment period as a result. Americans appear unwilling to do the sort of low-wage farm work that we have long relied on immigrants to do. And, the paper notes, it may be difficult to find an abundance of cheap farm labor anywhere else — potential targets such as Guatemala and El Salvador are either too small or are urbanizing too rapidly.
That could be a boon to domestic workers — studies have found that 23 percent of U.S. farm worker families are below the poverty line.
In the meantime, however, farm groups are hoping they can fend off that day of reckoning by revamping the nation’s immigration laws. The bipartisan immigration-reform proposal unveiled in the Senate on Monday contained several provisions aimed at boosting the supply of farm workers, including the promise of an easier path to citizenship.
Taylor, however, is not convinced that this is a viable long-term strategy. “The idea that you can design a guest-worker program or any other immigration policy to solve this farm labor problem isn’t realistic,” he says. “It assumes that there’s a willingness to keep doing farm work on the other side of the border. And that’s already dropping off.”
this study agrees with some of the others points
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Taylor and his co-authors argue that the United States could face a sharp adjustment period as a result. Americans appear unwilling to do the sort of low-wage farm work that we have long relied on immigrants to do. And, the paper notes, it may be difficult to find an abundance of cheap farm labor anywhere else — potential targets such as Guatemala and El Salvador are either too small or are urbanizing too rapidly.
So, raise wages or invest in tech. Uhm. Bit obvious, that?
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Here's the solution:
Parents stop giving their teenage kids giant allowances, and make the little bastages get out and work.
I worked in farm labor for 5 years in High School and college. Before I was 16, I would do weevil/pest inspection of pea fields in eastern Oregon and Washington. Once I was 16, I could work in the cannery and got to do lots of menial work like watching a production line and spotting dented or burst cans. Once I was 18, I got to play with machinery. Pea harvester combines, fork lifts, canning/boxing/labeling machinery.
When I still had time to work but pea season was over with, I knew several farmers and ranchers that needed help bucking hay bales.
I worked ag. A lot.
I started making minimum wage, and got up to about double minimum wage by the time I had 3 years in experience and was worth trusting with heavier equipment.
I was tired, I was sunburned, I was filthy... and it was a great job.
Everyone can stand to do some sort of ag or industrial work early on in their professional life. Most kids nowadays don't do it because their parents coddle them too much.
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good luck with that. many "parents" would stroke out. i am surprised i haven't been turned in
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Anyone know if they still hire high school kids to de-tassel corn? That's a fun job.
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Everyone can stand to do some sort of ag or industrial work early on in their professional life. Most kids nowadays don't do it because their parents coddle them too much.
I notice that I have much more of a "get the job done" attitude than many others in the aviation software business.
When people asked where I learned to write computer code, I like to say: in the timber while logging :P
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I was tired, I was sunburned, I was filthy... and it was a great job.
Everyone can stand to do some sort of ag or industrial work early on in their professional life. Most kids nowadays don't do it because their parents coddle them too much.
Oh, Dear Lord, this.
1. Great work that allows you to burn off 9 months' worth of sitting in a classroom wishing I was outside.
2. Whenever I start to think whiny thoughts at work, I usually (mentally) slap myself silly and shove my nose in how good I've got it. I could be slinging a pick in 105degF, 95% humidity. Or dropping, cutting up, and hauling off trees, or unloading boxes from the back of a container (working on "brown lung disease" from the cardboard dust, or....etc, etc.
[My problem is more along the lines of, "Something this good can't go on indefinitely. Something awful has got to be around the corner."]
So, raise wages or invest in tech. Uhm. Bit obvious, that?
Cheaper & easier if you can get gov't to change the rules to prop up your obsolescent business model. Also, raises the barriers to entry.
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2. Whenever I start to think whiny thoughts at work, I usually (mentally) slap myself silly and shove my nose in how good I've got it. I could be slinging a pick in 105degF, 95% humidity. Or dropping, cutting up, and hauling off trees, or unloading boxes from the back of a container (working on "brown lung disease" from the cardboard dust, or....etc, etc.
Lulz.
When my brother moved into my house to house-sit for me while I'm away, he got to see me work from home. Telecommuting for a software company, versus his HVAC career at its current entry level.
78* air conditioned relaxed thoughtful workday, versus his days of crawling around in AZ attics and roofs at 130* or hotter.
Eventually he'll be a crew lead and possibly even a small business owner in his own right, but right now he's bustin' arse in the sweltering attics for about half of what I make relaxed in front of a computer.
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78 is comfortable to you? I guess that's why you live in the desert.
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Anyone know if they still hire high school kids to de-tassel corn? That's a fun job.
I know a couple of kids who did that in the summer. One is going to college at Western Michigan University and the other is attending the University of Michigan medical school. They developed a pretty good work ethic in their high school years.
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They still hire kids to do that around here, too.
It's kinda neat looking at the fields where they've been de-tasseled, because they alternate rows at times.
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I did strawberry picking and some other light ag work. Got burned quick. I forget what the wage structure was, but I worked it out to less than minimum wage. I believe it was we were paid by the container filled. The crew bosses take your containers, shake them to compact, and then pour some of your containers onto the rest forming a mound above the top of the container.
Thing is, I noticed they were not sold like that. So, I swung by after work and looked into the back. Sure enough, they were pouring them into new containers (uncompacted) and level with the top. Legal, probably, but a bit unpleasant. Thus ended my ag work. I washed dishes at a catering place (they fed the help AWESOMELY and good bosses) and did accounting at a tax place after that for my petty cash.
I also loan sharked. ATMs weren't as common back then, bank hours sucked and adults were always in a rush... Heh heh heh...
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What is the point of de-tasseling corn? I'm a farm-type person, and used to raise sweet corn, but I've never heard of this.
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Robots, ladies and gentlemen.
Farm and industrial robots are going to eat those ag jobs like corn flakes.
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What is the point of de-tasseling corn? I'm a farm-type person, and used to raise sweet corn, but I've never heard of this.
So many married folks in my parents' generation and location "met while de-tasseling corn" I suspect the purpose was a sort of a kinetic meet-and-greet between the sexes, allowing them to size each other up and judge work ethic before courting....while making money. Not a bad (supposed) system.
Robots, ladies and gentlemen.
Farm and industrial robots are going to eat those ag jobs like corn flakes.
Not as long as illegal alien labor is available. Dee De Tocqueville's Democracy in America and the contrast between Ohio and Kentucky.
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Not as long as illegal alien labor is available. Dee De Tocqueville's Democracy in America and the contrast between Ohio and Kentucky.
We have now - in prototype - assembly robots that cost less than an annual salary in China. There's a limit to how much you can underpay the illegals.
Prepare yourself for the death of hard manual labor within the generation. And the sooner, the better.
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What is the point of de-tasseling corn? I'm a farm-type person, and used to raise sweet corn, but I've never heard of this.
Controlled cross pollination- There are three rows of corn planted very close together with a regulare width row in between each group of 3.
The middle ro is your 'male' plant and the two flanking rows are the 'female' plants. The idea is to pull the tassels out of the 'female' plants so they can't self- pollinate which are in turn pollinated by the 'male' plants.
After the seeds start developing, the silk is cut off the cobs of the 'female' plants to prevent any further pollination.
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Anyone know if they still hire high school kids to de-tassel corn? That's a fun job.
Didn't obama sign a law that outlawed anyone under 16 from doing ag work? I can't remember if he did or didn't.
When I did that job I was 12 and 13 years old, as were most of the kids doing it.
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Prepare yourself for the death of hard manual labor within the generation. And the sooner, the better.
Hard manual labor is good for the soul, and for the body.
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Hard manual labor is good for the soul, and for the body.
For the purpose of improving the soul and body perhaps. For the purpose of increasing productivity it sucks and is stupid. The only reason it still exists in modern industry is the moronic, shortsighted attitudes of (some) managers who feel that broken employees are cheaper than broken/worn out equipment.
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For the purpose of improving the soul and body perhaps. For the purpose of increasing productivity it sucks and is stupid. The only reason it still exists in modern industry is the moronic, shortsighted attitudes of (some) managers who feel that broken employees are cheaper than broken/worn out equipment.
There are some jobs that aren't going to be replaced by machines for a very long time, simply because the technology doesn't exist.
Also, there is always plenty of work available for people willing to do hard work. Sadly, very few Americans are willing to break a sweat for pay check- especially when a government handout is a lot easier and completely painless.
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Sadly, very few Americans are willing to break a sweat for pay check
so true
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Hard manual labor is good for the soul, and for the body.
I have done it and have seen others do it (street-sweeper, soldier, factory worker in three industries), and I disagree.
There are some jobs that aren't going to be replaced by machines for a very long time, simply because the technology doesn't exist.
For the previous century, progress in this area has worked approximately like this:
1. Car is invented.
2. Buggy-whip makers, grooms, and cart-drivers lose their jobs. However, far more jobs are create selling cars, fixing cars, and driving cars, as cars improve everyone's productivity and wealth.
But I suspect very much - and many people who are far smarter agree with me - that we are expecting a different paradigm now.
Now it will be... 'journalist is replaced by financial journalism software' (this already exists), 'journalist attempts to find burger-flipping job, job has been eaten by robot burger flippers', 'journalist attempts to find job as a truck driver, job has been obviated by driverless trucks'.
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We have now - in prototype - assembly robots that cost less than an annual salary in China. There's a limit to how much you can underpay the illegals.
Prepare yourself for the death of hard manual labor within the generation. And the sooner, the better.
Human critters are more adaptable than machinery, so I suspect your prediction premature.
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Human critters are more adaptable than machinery, so I suspect your prediction premature.
statist! >:D ;/ =D =D =D
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So is there a robotic calf castrating machine ??? =D
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2. Buggy-whip makers, grooms, and cart-drivers lose their jobs. However, far more jobs are create selling cars, fixing cars, and driving cars, as cars improve everyone's productivity and wealth.
But I suspect very much - and many people who are far smarter agree with me - that we are expecting a different paradigm now.
Now it will be... 'journalist is replaced by financial journalism software' (this already exists), 'journalist attempts to find burger-flipping job, job has been eaten by robot burger flippers', 'journalist attempts to find job as a truck driver, job has been obviated by driverless trucks'.
Pretty much. While I believe it will sort itself out eventually. At some point, we'll have the Culture and live in giant space ships that sort out everything for us. In the mean time... It'll be interesting. Even as a libertarian, I do recognize lots of folks out of work and unable to find a job that'll pay the bills means social unrest.
There are some jobs that aren't going to be replaced by machines for a very long time, simply because the technology doesn't exist.
Also, there is always plenty of work available for people willing to do hard work. Sadly, very few Americans are willing to break a sweat for pay check- especially when a government handout is a lot easier and completely painless.
Meh. I've done hard manual labor at well below minimum wage. I don't know if I doubt it noble. It was educational, but so was starvation, dehydration, injuries, long term sleep deprivation. Breaking a sweat for a paycheck isn't shameful. But I learned not to break a swear unless it pays.
Manual ag work doesn't pay well. So folks tend not to go for it. Supply and demand. Unless you cheat and break the law, or pay to have the law changed. If government handout pays more than manual labor, then sure, you'll have an issue.
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Human critters are more adaptable than machinery, so I suspect your prediction premature.
Just so we are clear:
I do not mean that absolutely nobody, anywhere, will be working in HML.
I certainly think that:
1. Far, far less people will be working in HML in civilized Western countries ten years from now than do now.
2. The definition of HML will shift, to include 'softer' ML jobs. Lots of current HML jobs will go extinct (burger-flippers we already mentioned).
3. Many people who are not capable of doing anything other than HML will be unemployed.
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There are some jobs that aren't going to be replaced by machines for a very long time, simply because the technology doesn't exist.
Also, there is always plenty of work available for people willing to do hard work. Sadly, very few Americans are willing to break a sweat for pay check- especially when a government handout is a lot easier and completely painless.
I was talking about shoveling tons of material by hand because they don't want to replace the hydraulic hose on the skid steer loader. Because once they replace the hose, we'll drive it. And then you know...it'll break. Or get worn out.
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Just so we are clear:
I do not mean that absolutely nobody, anywhere, will be working in HML.
I certainly think that:
1. Far, far less people will be working in HML in civilized Western countries ten years from now than do now.
2. The definition of HML will shift, to include 'softer' ML jobs. Lots of current HML jobs will go extinct (burger-flippers we already mentioned).
3. Many people who are not capable of doing anything other than HML will be unemployed.
Your thinking is completely inside the box of mass produced consumer goods and those who are employed to put put screw 'A' into hole 'B.'
I agree with you within those parameters.
I also think that at some given time in the future, people will tire of disposable trinkets and low quality 'durable goods' anyway that are produced largely in part by manual labor.
The people who I know personally that are the wealthiest also happen to be 'manual laborers' who aren't employed by anyone but their customers- masons, plumbers, excavators, and farmers.
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I was talking about shoveling tons of material by hand because they don't want to replace the hydraulic hose on the skid steer loader. Because once they replace the hose, we'll drive it. And then you know...it'll break. Or get worn out.
Oh. That is just godzilla---> :facepalm: dumb by the company.
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The people who I know personally that are the wealthiest also happen to be 'manual laborers' who aren't employed by anyone but their customers- masons, plumbers, excavators, and farmers.
I think it's generally known - Justin will correct me if I am wrong - that a farmer that is financially successful typically employs a lot of people in the fields.
It is these people that will be replaced by technology.
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Controlled cross pollination- There are three rows of corn planted very close together with a regulare width row in between each group of 3.
The middle ro is your 'male' plant and the two flanking rows are the 'female' plants. The idea is to pull the tassels out of the 'female' plants so they can't self- pollinate which are in turn pollinated by the 'male' plants.
Ok, now I understand what it is, but don't understand the point. Why is max polination not a good thing? Is this done in an attempt to selectively breed corn (e.g. the "male" plants are are Variety A and "female" plants are Variety B)?
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Ok, now I understand what it is, but don't understand the point. Why is max polination not a good thing? Is this done in an attempt to selectively breed corn (e.g. the "male" plants are are Variety A and "female" plants are Variety B)?
It is used in the breeding of hybrids. The detasseled plants are pollinated by the tassled (of different strain) plants.
I admit that although surrounded by cornfields for a good portion of my life, I had to look it up!
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Hard manual labor is good for the soul, and for the body.
Money is better for both. =D
Isn't one of the issues with crop-picking that it requires a lot of moving from place to place? Not just in the field, but state to state?