Properly designed, the LED will emit less heat than a CFL.
You can look at it in a couple ways, but the most applicable is luminous efficiency (lumens per watt, or lm/W). This is a directly inverse indicator of heat generation per light unit output. Higher lumens (more light) per watt means less energy lost as heat for each watt consumed in operation.
A typical household incandescent will be doing good to top 13 lm/W
A really good CFL might hit 70 lm/W (but it's been a long time since I've seen a really good CFL. Most are imported mass-produced junk.).
A current generation LED lamp will easily be in the 85-90 lm/W range, and they are improving almost by the second. Expect quality LED lamps to top 100 lm/W and be in the sub-$10 range within the next 9-12 months.
Or you can look at it this way...
A typical 60w incandescent is rated at 820-850 lumens, depending on coating type, filament materials, and construction. It requires, as the rating implies, 60w to operate, about 95% of which is lost as heat. The lumen-equivalent CFL is about 15w. The previous generation Phillips LED is 12.5. The new-gen Cree is 9.5. The illumination stays the same, but the energy input has decreased. Now it's a simple math problem. Less energy required means less waste (heat) for a given amount of performance (light).
Brad