Author Topic: shopping for gold.  (Read 11329 times)

Jamisjockey

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2009, 02:47:20 PM »
Oh, and for gold:
I think it has its most use in converting wealth to whatever new currency is implemented.  You might lose wealth in the transition, you might lose more in a currency transition.  Or if the current currency remains in circulation but is printed to the point of extreme devaluation.  
Trading real gold for groceries seems like a bad proposition.  
But being able to go into a bank and trade gold for currency seems like a winner.

If we're talking mad max world, I don't think gold will have that much value in the short term, either, except for maybe when civilization begins to emerge again.  I also don’t thnk that would take very long, 5 years tops, unless some sort of major die off happens (like a super bug/plague).  Of course, if you survive some sort of mass die off, what did you lose by storing some gold?  You're not going to store thousands of dollars worth of food in its place.  Ammo will store indefinitely, as will most of the components used in creating more ammo.  Ammo for trade in an end of the world mad max scenario makes sense.  But, you can only store so much ammo, too.  Several ammo cans of each common caliber, or each caliber you own, will begin to take up alot of space.  And, in trade, its only of use to someone who has a gun to begin with.  There is enough ammunition stockpiled around the country that stores might take awhile to begin to dwindle.  Of course, giving someone ammo who doesn't have it already means they just might decide to use it against you in a bid to take everything you have.  

Of course, as a means of self sustenance, hunting is problematic at best.  Firstly, as the hordes go forth from the city to the wilderness, animal stocks will be depleted rapidly.  After a year or two, when all major stores of food are dried up and people begin starving to death, the animal populations might begin to return.  Some species may be regionally hunted to extinction, though.  If I were planning for mad max, I'd invest in some animal traps and learn to use them.  


JD

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HankB

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #26 on: December 14, 2009, 02:50:36 PM »
 Firstly, as the hordes go forth from the city to the wilderness, animal stocks will be depleted rapidly.
Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while.  :O
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Ben

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #27 on: December 14, 2009, 02:52:04 PM »
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Jamisjockey

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #28 on: December 14, 2009, 02:54:45 PM »
Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while.  :O

Wonder how well it can be converted into jerky?
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Viking

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #29 on: December 14, 2009, 04:29:26 PM »
Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while.  :O
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #30 on: December 14, 2009, 07:51:47 PM »
On a somewhat related note, is there anyone out there who thinks this gold rush is a bubble? Or does it mean that the TEOTWAWKI is near (purposefully being facetious)?

I am not an economics guru, I have an understanding or supply and demand. Are people short selling, like oil last year, or is it something else?

I am thinking of buying commodities as an investment, but am leaning towards Pt, Ag. I think this gold rush is just another bubble that has popped up.  What I don't know is what percentage of the gold price is devaluation of currency, and which is short term supply shortage.

Any have any ideas? Only good ones,  ;)
It's a carry trade thing.  People are borrowing dollars for free (0%) and using the cash to buy assets they think will appreciate in the short term, stuff like gold, currency in places that still pay interest, bank stocks, oil to some extent, etc.


Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #31 on: December 14, 2009, 07:57:13 PM »
Just for consideration...

If the SHTF in a mega-world-meltdown way, which would be more valuable - a couple ounces of gold or or the equavalent value worth of food and ammo?

Brad
If it were me, I'd want medication for my fam, a warm jacket, some sturdy boots, a gun and plenty of spare parts and ammo, and piece of land with a well and a woodstove, and a pile of food.

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #32 on: December 14, 2009, 08:00:12 PM »

As for gold, I think you undervalue it slightly. There's a reason it became a medium of exchange in every society I've ever examined...
I'm curious what that reason is.  I don't see any value to gold other than its scarcity, and there are plenty of things that are scarce. 

What makes gold so magical to some folks?  The only solid answer I've ever heard is "because it's always been that way".  As answer go, it doesn't satisfy.

Perd Hapley

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #33 on: December 14, 2009, 08:13:00 PM »
It was valued by the ancients, because their alien overlords forced mankind to mine it for them, you see.  Once they had enough to repair and refuel their ships, they returned to Orion's belt.  But the kings of men did not understand the principles of electromagnetic conductance.  They believed that simply having gold could give them power to fly, and to have weapons of fire, and to watch the cricket matches from back home in the Betelgeuse system.
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alex_trebek

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #34 on: December 14, 2009, 10:28:33 PM »
I'm curious what that reason is.  I don't see any value to gold other than its scarcity, and there are plenty of things that are scarce. 

What makes gold so magical to some folks?  The only solid answer I've ever heard is "because it's always been that way".  As answer go, it doesn't satisfy.

I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.

For example Pt is generally more expensive than gold. Pt is mainly used in spark plugs and catalytic coverters, but it's inertness is what makes it valuable, along with scarcity.  For example, the pure Pt plugs used in the wright bros plane would cost over a million dollars in today's market.

When you think about it, when Ag, Cu, and Au are placed in ascending value, their reactivity with O2 is also in ascending order. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Al prices also indicate interesting trends.  In napoleons time, Al was far more expensive than Au. This is because the ore processing technique yielded low results with a high energy input required. As the tech developed Al became cheaper. It's primary usefulness is still resistance to reacting with O2. As well as it's strength per mass.

Au's primary industrial uses also rely on it's stability, one use being the MAF sensor in cars, or air flow sensors in general. These sensors rely on electrical resistance changes due to air movement.  Naturally, these require elements that are very corrosion resistant.


Silver Bullet

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #35 on: December 14, 2009, 10:38:19 PM »
To respond to Silver Bullet's question, in a shtf situation, I think compact nutrition, like GU or Clif bars would be really valuable for both use and trade.  

That makes sense to me.  Of course, that's assuming they're not imprinted with the Alliance logo.   :cool:

Many nutrition bars seem to be like glorified candy bars.  What bars would provide the best nutritional value ?

Silver Bullet

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2009, 10:40:28 PM »
It was valued by the ancients, because their alien overlords forced mankind to mine it for them, you see.  Once they had enough to repair and refuel their ships, they returned to Orion's belt.  But the kings of men did not understand the principles of electromagnetic conductance.  They believed that simply having gold could give them power to fly, and to have weapons of fire, and to watch the cricket matches from back home in the Betelgeuse system.

I was just about to point that out, but you beat me to it.

Silver Bullet

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2009, 10:45:55 PM »
The barter items thing is also pretty strange. I don’t see how it could possibly be a smart idea to buy goods to sell or trade after a crisis, surely not in the quantities suggested by some people. Beats me, are they going to set up a shop in their garages and sell everything? Would you buy food an other supplies from a guy that sells it with no possible way of verifying the conditions under which the food was kept? How much of a profit could you possibly make , comparing to having saved that same amount of money in gold, for example?

I don’t understand it and I don’t know of anyone that made a profit by doing this. Yet, people stock up on TP and many other cheap, easily obtainable items thinking that it will be “worth it’s weight in gold” after the crisis. Newsflash: if it’s cheap and easy to produce, it will keep being that way AFTER tshtf.

No garage sales, more like "hey, neighbor, I'll trade you two bars of soap for a dozen oranges."  Trading during times of crisis isn't conjecture, it's history.

As far as being cheap and easy to produce, that depends on how extensive the crisis is.  If it's nationwide, there might not be any producers.  Even local catastrophes sometimes result in a shortage of items on the grocery stores' shelves.

Nick1911

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #38 on: December 14, 2009, 10:47:01 PM »
Al prices also indicate interesting trends.  In napoleons time, Al was far more expensive than Au. This is because the ore processing technique yielded low results with a high energy input required. As the tech developed Al became cheaper. It's primary usefulness is still resistance to reacting with O2. As well as it's strength per mass.

A really, really minor point - Aluminum is actually quite reactive to oxygen.  The reason that it doesn't corrode away like steel does is due to the fact that it generally doesn't flake away and expose the parent metal below to more oxygen.  This passivity layer of AlOx protects the aluminum from further corrosion.  The process of anodizing aluminum increases the depth and thus protection of this natural passivity layer.  Aluminum oxide is considered a ceramic due to it's mostly inert chemical properties, and is actually used as grit in common hardware store grade sandpaper

In practice application one really notices this when they decide to use TapFree (a cutting lubricant for steel) on an aluminum part prior to cutting internal threads.  Initially protected by the passivity layer, the TapFree will nonreactivly sit upon the surface of the hole.  However, as soon as a tap stars cutting threads, exposing raw aluminum, a huge burning mess of black crap will fill the air with acrid , carcinogenic, toxic smoke.  Or so I'm told...  :angel:

Silver Bullet

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2009, 10:55:37 PM »
Quote
Some species may be regionally hunted to extinction, though

My guess is that bunny rabbits and wild boar will survive for quite a while. 

Quote
Having 10 years worth of food that perishes in 5 is likely not a good strategy.

But how about buying food that lasts 25 years ?  Freeze-dried sealed in cans.

http://www.nitro-pak.com/index.php?cPath=147_58_29&osCsid=e64113e593a2f436b1d1132f9f5f9eff

http://beprepared.com/category.asp_Q_c_E_60_A_c2c_E_ln_A_name_E_FoodStorageFreezeDriedFoods

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #40 on: December 14, 2009, 11:10:38 PM »
Quote
What bars would provide the best nutritional value ?
Check on lifeboat rations. Seven Oceans has/had boxed bars that were practically tasteless. Weren't bad, but wouldn't be gorged-on because they were tasty, either. Had a multi-year lifespan, if memory serves.

Perd Hapley

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #41 on: December 14, 2009, 11:59:02 PM »
I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.

Obviously quite a lot of rubbish, supported by not one shred of scientific proof.  The alien hypothesis I mentioned above is obviously the more reasonable supposition.  Obviously.   
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PTK

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #42 on: December 15, 2009, 12:02:22 AM »
Ok, seriously, you've gone away from being funny and now you just clutter up every damn thread I'm trying to read. Can you please go back to being nicer?  :mad:
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Brad Johnson

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #43 on: December 15, 2009, 12:26:11 AM »
I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.

For example Pt is generally more expensive than gold. Pt is mainly used in spark plugs and catalytic coverters

Um, actually, no.  Platinum definitely gets a lot of use in cat converters and is currently pretty high profile in spark plugs, but it's also a critical industrial metal.  It's used in almost every industry as a catalyst for any number of processes.  Without platinum many of the processes we never think about would be horrendously expensive, if they were possible at all.  Creates a lot of demand, that.

As with anything else the value is determined by good old supply and demand.  The chemical properties allow for a use that contributes to the demand for the metal, but the property alone has nothing to do with some kind of inherent worth.  In the case of metals like platinum, palladium, and aluminum, the demand is mainly industrial/manufacturing.  In cases of gold and silver, there is a consumer market in the form of decorative items (read: jewelry), gold moreso because it alloys easily, takes a high polish, and  resists oxidation (which, in addition to being extremely ductile, is also why it is critical to the electronics industry for very small conductors).


When you think about it, when Ag, Cu, and Au are placed in ascending value, their reactivity with O2 is also in ascending order. I don't think that is a coincidence.

It is entirely coincidental, actually.

Brad
« Last Edit: December 15, 2009, 12:29:12 AM by Brad Johnson »
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Silver Bullet

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #44 on: December 15, 2009, 01:13:22 AM »
Check on lifeboat rations. Seven Oceans has/had boxed bars that were practically tasteless. Weren't bad, but wouldn't be gorged-on because they were tasty, either. Had a multi-year lifespan, if memory serves.

Savalas, that's a pretty impressive product. 

http://www.compactforlife.com/seven-oceans-food-rations/

I'll have to look into that further.  Looks great for the situations where you have to leave the home.  I'll stick with freeze-dried for toughing it out in the home.

alex_trebek

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #45 on: December 15, 2009, 12:14:17 PM »
A really, really minor point - Aluminum is actually quite reactive to oxygen.  The reason that it doesn't corrode away like steel does is due to the fact that it generally doesn't flake away and expose the parent metal below to more oxygen.  This passivity layer of AlOx protects the aluminum from further corrosion.  The process of anodizing aluminum increases the depth and thus protection of this natural passivity layer.  Aluminum oxide is considered a ceramic due to it's mostly inert chemical properties, and is actually used as grit in common hardware store grade sandpaper

In practice application one really notices this when they decide to use TapFree (a cutting lubricant for steel) on an aluminum part prior to cutting internal threads.  Initially protected by the passivity layer, the TapFree will nonreactivly sit upon the surface of the hole.  However, as soon as a tap stars cutting threads, exposing raw aluminum, a huge burning mess of black crap will fill the air with acrid , carcinogenic, toxic smoke.  Or so I'm told...  :angel:

you are correct, I didn't want to go into that much detail. Ag and Cu also form stable oxide layers at a slow rate. The oxide layer stability means the metal has practical uses.

In other words at normal atm conditions, more valuble metals do not form oxide layers the way Fe and Mg do. Their value is also a fcn of scarcity and ore processing.

Quote
Um, actually, no.  Platinum definitely gets a lot of use in cat converters and is currently pretty high profile in spark plugs, but it's also a critical industrial metal.  It's used in almost every industry as a catalyst for any number of processes.  Without platinum many of the processes we never think about would be horrendously expensive, if they were possible at all.  Creates a lot of demand, that.

As with anything else the value is determined by good old supply and demand.  The chemical properties allow for a use that contributes to the demand for the metal, but the property alone has nothing to do with some kind of inherent worth.  In the case of metals like platinum, palladium, and aluminum, the demand is mainly industrial/manufacturing.  In cases of gold and silver, there is a consumer market in the form of decorative items (read: jewelry), gold moreso because it alloys easily, takes a high polish, and  resists oxidation (which, in addition to being extremely ductile, is also why it is critical to the electronics industry for very small conductors).

why claim to disagree with my post when you didn't read it?

I said the main use for Pt is in automobiles. If this is not the case, why did the price of Pt plummit when auto manufacturers idled last year? You claim it primary use is as a catalyst, agreeing with me when I said it's usefulness is in catalytic converters.

By claiming that the metals resistance to oxidation has nothing to do with price is wrong, IMO. What if I tried to sell you, a circuit board or power line manufacturer, a metal alloy that has a low resistance and high thermal conductivity compaired to Ag Cu or Au, but oxidizes at twice the rate of Fe and does not produce a stabile oxide layer? How much is my alloy worth? I would say almost nothing. The boards will fail and have a decreased lifespan, the power lines will need to replaced often, etc. This alloy would have very little uses due to it's restrictive enviromental requirements.


I did say that scarcity directly affects the price. Economic scarcity is defined by demand and supply.

How can a metals chemical properties have nothing to do with it's value, but everything to do with its usefulness when the metals usefulness directly affects demand, assuming the resource supply is limited by any means?
« Last Edit: December 15, 2009, 12:41:07 PM by alex_trebek »

Brad Johnson

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #46 on: December 15, 2009, 02:48:25 PM »
why claim to disagree with my post when you didn't read it?

I said the main use for Pt is in automobiles. If this is not the case, why did the price of Pt plummit when auto manufacturers idled last year? You claim it primary use is as a catalyst, agreeing with me when I said it's usefulness is in catalytic converters.

By claiming that the metals resistance to oxidation has nothing to do with price is wrong, IMO. What if I tried to sell you, a circuit board or power line manufacturer, a metal alloy that has a low resistance and high thermal conductivity compaired to Ag Cu or Au, but oxidizes at twice the rate of Fe and does not produce a stabile oxide layer? How much is my alloy worth? I would say almost nothing. The boards will fail and have a decreased lifespan, the power lines will need to replaced often, etc. This alloy would have very little uses due to it's restrictive enviromental requirements.

You post appears to claim that the value is a direct result of a property of the metal.  It isn't.  The value is the result of industry being able to make use of that property.  If they found another substance that would do the job better, the metal would no longer be in demand and the price would fall even though is still retained the same property.  If your assertion was correct the metal would retain the value as a direct result of a single chemical property regardless of demand.

Brad
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CAnnoneer

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #47 on: December 16, 2009, 07:59:19 PM »
I think the only things of truly lasting value to survival are know-how, intelligence, attitude, and physical conditioning. If you are lacking in any of those departments, it makes no difference how much ammo, TP, food, medicine, or water you store. Conversely, if you are strong in those departments, you will find ways to gain what you need in most situations.

KD5NRH

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #48 on: December 16, 2009, 11:12:04 PM »
Which brings up the question, what are other items of trading value when TSHTF ?

Properly stored coffee and tobacco.  Both addictive, and even those of us with seeds and knowledge to grow them will have a few months' lead time - much longer than the addicts will want to be without a fix.

A pallet or two of name-brand sodas could also be worth a lot if you have the room to store it, for the same reason.

Perd Hapley

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Re: shopping for gold.
« Reply #49 on: December 16, 2009, 11:29:11 PM »
.
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