If ammo (or at least the most desirable ammo) remains unobtainable for 9 months, won't that make an indelible impression in the mind of gun owners? Won't demand be higher for the next 10 or 20 years (or more?), as private stockpiles grow larger and more common? Could that justify at least some "gearing up"? Or even new companies making ammo or components?
You're right, that is a factor, however it's still a
finite factor.
- Eventually, everyone would reach their comfort level for ammo on hand, and the run will end.
- Such decisions are just as emotionally based as logically based. When the hoarding/stockpiling by the consumers ends will matter as much on perception, news, politics, as it does on the actual ammo availability if not more, and the run on ammo will end.
- Then there's the economic ability of people to stockpile. Such decisions for most people aren't simply made by how much they want, but how much they can afford. And the stockpiling also ends that way too, and the run will end.
So it's kind of a complex issue with multiple factors affecting when the ammo run will burn itself out. And in general, the more factors that are acting to end it, the sooner it will happen.
And the other issue is that in the face of that, the one single way a manufacturer could make a dent in the above factors is cost. They'd have to significantly undercut the competition, so that the price to the end-user through all the distribution channel markups was still so significant it could affect all of those above decision factors.
Unfortunately, the tooling and startup costs to control ammo production from end-to-end, stamping brass/steel, producing primer cups, bullets, double-base nitro powders, all the hazmat issues dealing with lead styphnate or similar lead-based explosives, or the "green" diazodinitrophenol primer compounds, are all quite high. Much of the ammo manufacture as noted really leverages just a few makers of these components and just assemble them. The entry barriers were such that many of these plants and machines date back to WWII when things were so dire that obviously ANY "entry barriers" or costs were worth it.
So in essence it's a huge gamble that you could amortize these massive costs over the next 20 years, when the economy could wipe out discretionary shooter spending, legislation could wipe out the private market, or some unforeseen shooting product that replaces metallic cartridges could all wipe out your investment, and your ability to pay back the financing. Assuming some bank or venture capital group would look at your business plan and the uncertainties and not laugh you out of the loan office.
And the people who have enough cash on hand to tool up an entire ammo plant without any loans or financing, they throw their money at things which are much more lucrative and have better understood risk/reward ratios.
