Nation-wide lockdown coming?

[cordex]

Well, maybe.  We don't know what "doing nothing" would have looked like in the US.

Fair enough, but if we're unhappy where we are now then we have to look at how far we want (or are willing) to go beyond what we've already done.

I don't think anyone wants these sort of draconian measures in the US.

Lot of people want the government to do "something" more than what we are already doing, but won't even try to define specific goals, strategies, metrics for success, or hard limits on the human rights they will refuse to violate.  So I guess we're talking about something between Biden's "C'mon man, wear a mask!" and Winnie's "weld people in their apartments."  Given what we've seen so far with interminable, ineffective, and destructive policies, I'm going to need a lot more specificity before I support "something".

Maybe that's the cost of freedom.

By definition freedom can't be safe, but if the price seems too high then you may not have considered all the costs of the alternative.

[MechAg94]

Part of what we have right now, is a failure of trust.

I don't trust (in my case) the fat man in Springfield and his minions, to tell me the truth, and to have my interests at heart.  They made everything political, so excuse me if I think it prudent to judge their actions through that lens.

And I don't trust them to be competent to deal with it.  Science works, but only if you do it right.  Lysenko-ism isn't going anywhere in farm country, and I never took my kids to see a phrenology specialist when they were young.  Dunning-Krueger's not just for the little people.

I don't trust the main stream news to tell me the truth, not when they mostly lie about folks like me.

(Contemplating expanding this into a good rant for the Book of Faces.)

Bolded.  You can see from the off-camera footage that has come out that they don't wear masks themselves even as they crap on anyone that suggests masks might not be effective.  

[Hawkmoon]

My state's early peak was mid-April. The worst single day back then was April 22, with 2109 new cases.

Then we started with the restrictions, and things calmed down considerably. From mid-June through mid-September, the curve was basically flat and the 14-day average for new cases was running around 75 to 90 new cases per day. But the state eased the restrictions after Labor Day, allowing more places to open up, fewer restrictions, yada, yada. Schools re-opened, and most of them had the kids physically going to school. And the curve skyrocketed, as steeply as (or maybe even steeper than) the original crunch back in March and April. The new cases numbers now are higher than they were at the peak in mid-April. As of November 10, the 7-day average for new cases was 1,263 and the 14-day average was 1,077.

I think the problem is that people think because restrictions have been eased that means the virus is gone and the pandemic is over. When I go to the supermarket or to the Super Walmart, I see lots of people who pull their masks down to their chin as soon as they're inside the store. Both stores have the aisles marked for one-way traffic -- people routinely ignore it. The last time I was in the supermarket, I watched two different women who systematically went through the entire store, traveling each aisle opposite to the arrows.

IMO, there's a difference between lowest common denominator "DO SOMETHING!" and doing things that make sense. Elderly/susceptible should certainly wear masks, wash hands, or avoid going out all together as much as they can. Younger people in their families who interact with them should also take precautions.

I don't see the point of making EVERYONE wear masks.

You persist in thinking the masks are to protect the wearer. Unless you have an N95 mask, it's not. I wear a mask to protect other people from me (not that I'm contagious). The reason other people are supposed to wear masks is to protect me from them, not them from me. I would love it if the .gov would just pay me to stay at home and I could have someone deliver my food to me, but I'm a widower. My only child is an estranged, adopted daughter who lives several thousand miles away. I'm on my own. I stay as isolated as I can, but every once in awhile I have to venture forth to restock the pantry. Such is life.

[cordex]

I'm on my own. I stay as isolated as I can, but every once in awhile I have to venture forth to restock the pantry. Such is life.

Have you looked at stores that offer curbside pickup?  That is likely to be much safer than shopping in the store and you won't have to worry about people walking the wrong way or not wearing their mask correctly.  I think several of them offer that service for free.

[Ben]

Part of what we have right now, is a failure of trust.

When you see what they're doing to every half dozen Jews who assemble in NYC while the city applauds ginormous BLM and 46 rallies, yeah, lack of trust comes into play.

[Ben]

Here's another reason we don't trust "them":

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/11/12/janice-dean-truth-bombs-gov-cuomo-over-his-new-restrictions-on-thanksgiving/

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2020/11/12/chris-hayes-cites-defying-andrew-cuomo-as-proof-that-the-gop-has-basically-taken-the-side-of-the-virus-and-are-actively-trying-to-spread-it/

A good point was made about restaurants who might, even half full, have 50 people in them, but we're limiting homeowners to 10 people.

Where is the science in that? Ten people in a 500sqft NYC high rise apartment is different than ten people in a 4000 sq ft suburban home with yard access.

Note how the MSM also supports this stuff (the Chris Hayes post).

[Nick1911]

Fair enough, but if we're unhappy where we are now then we have to look at how far we want (or are willing) to go beyond what we've already done.
Lot of people want the government to do "something" more than what we are already doing, but won't even try to define specific goals, strategies, metrics for success, or hard limits on the human rights they will refuse to violate.  So I guess we're talking about something between Biden's "C'mon man, wear a mask!" and Winnie's "weld people in their apartments."  Given what we've seen so far with interminable, ineffective, and destructive policies, I'm going to need a lot more specificity before I support "something".

I agree with all of that.

By definition freedom can't be safe, but if the price seems too high then you may not have considered all the costs of the alternative.

True, but maybe isn't not a this-or-that.  I'd like for us all to be free to choose, but still make choices on the whole that are good for everyone.  I think that only exists in strong culture with shared values though.

1.  "Do Something" is just an invitation for a power grab.  The quality of people in our govt (in general) don't know what "something" should be any more than you do.  Don't assume they are all smarter or better informed.  More than likely they have conflicting motives or friends of theirs do. 

Maybe it's naive, but I'd like to believe policymakers are at least better informed than I.  They have a fleet of intelligent analysts who pour through research, data, and nonpublic intelligence sources, distilling all that down into reports with conclusions, summaries, models and predictions.  I have access to none of that.

[Hawkmoon]

Maybe it's naive, but I'd like to believe policymakers are at least better informed than I.  They have a fleet of intelligent analysts who pour through research, data, and nonpublic intelligence sources, distilling all that down into reports with conclusions, summaries, models and predictions. I have access to none of that.

And I suspect that the reason you don't have access to that is by design.

Since the beginning of the pandemic the state has posted statistics on the state's web site, and I've been logging the numbers on a spreadsheet. Since late April I have also printed out the state's daily reports and filed them in a loose-leaf binder. This process early on led to the realization that the state either isn't tracking or isn't reporting recoveries. From my perspective as a member of the proletariat who has to interact with other proles if/when I venture beyond the confines of my own property, I don't care how many total cases the state has seen since the start of the pandemic. I want to know how many cases are out there right now, today. And that number has never been provided.

So the state's numbers will tell me how many cases there were in the last day (and the cumulative total), how many people are in the hospital, and how many people died in the last day and cumulative total -- but not how many people have recovered, so there's no way to calculate the number of active cases. Curiously, the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracking map has a number for recoveries in my state. It's not a real number, of course, both because it's unrealistically low (according to this number, out of all the confirmed and "probable" cases in the state since the beginning, only 11.6 percent have recovered). Of perhaps equal interest, until May 3 the numbers for total cases, recoveries, and active cases in my spreadsheet matched the numbers on the Johns Hopkins map. As of May 3, a discrepancy popped up, amounting initially to (IIRC) about 125 cases.

So Johns Hopkins is getting recovery numbers for this state from somewhere. If the numbers are coming from the state government, the government isn't making the numbers available to the unwashed masses. Second, that discrepancy between the running tabulation of the state's numbers compared to the Johns Hopkins numbers has never gone away. The amount of the discrepancy has changed a couple of times, but the discrepancy remains.

And ... the Johns Hopkins number for recoveries hasn't changed for three weeks. So wherever Johns Hopkins was getting their numbers from has stopped reporting recoveries. Since active cases is a function of total cases less recoveries less deaths, without accurate data on recoveries there is no way to know how many active cases there are. I have written to the governor's office twice to complain that they're not giving us the data we need to make informed decisions, and I haven't even received an acknowledgement of my messages.

It's all smoke and mirrors. There's a guy behind a curtain in the corner, and we can't see what he's doing.

[MechAg94]

I agree with all of that.

True, but maybe isn't not a this-or-that.  I'd like for us all to be free to choose, but still make choices on the whole that are good for everyone.  I think that only exists in strong culture with shared values though.

Maybe it's naive, but I'd like to believe policymakers are at least better informed than I.  They have a fleet of intelligent analysts who pour through research, data, and nonpublic intelligence sources, distilling all that down into reports with conclusions, summaries, models and predictions.  I have access to none of that.

On the last, I wouldn't describe it as naive so much as I have seen far too many who have other motives aside from basic public service required of their jobs.  Maybe the little guys don't have that, but the elected officials and the people high enough up to make decisions seem to have other motives in far too many cases.  I think it is safe to assume a lack of trust rather than the opposite. 

Unrelated example:  In Houston, the Mayor was trying to do a photo op saying he was going to fix the potholes in the city (before an election).  He wanted pictures of himself helping to fill a pothole in a street.  Instead of finding an existing pothole (I am told there are many) and going there, they had city workers make a new hole in a city street so he could get his photos shovelling a little asphalt.  An honest person interested in public service would never even think of doing that.  IMO, that Mayor's attitude is not the exception, he is the rule.  And not just him, but most of his staff who planned it. 

[Andiron]

 When I go to the supermarket or to the Super Walmart, I see lots of people who pull their masks down to their chin as soon as they're inside the store. Both stores have the aisles marked for one-way traffic -- people routinely ignore it. The last time I was in the supermarket, I watched two different women who systematically went through the entire store, traveling each aisle opposite to the arrows.

I think you just highlighted why no one takes it seriously.  Your garden variety "people of Walmart" type are smart enough to recognize that directional aisles and designated enter/exit doors are pointless kabuki theater and treat them as such.  And that's just the average dumbass.

[Boomhauer]

If I am asked to do something voluntarily , long as it makes sense I am a thousand more times likely to do it. Order me to do something, especially something senseless, and not only will I not do it I will mock you mercilessly. Act like a petty tyrant and I am all about treating tyrants as they should be treated.

[K Frame]

When the directional aisles started back in May or June or so, at least here in Northern Virginia, people were very cognizant of it and were following them. I saw people call other people out for going the wrong way.

But, I never quite figured out what directional aisles were supposed to do because what's the different whether you pass a shopper going the same direction as you are, or the other way? You're still passing the person, inviting momentary close contact.

A lot of what we're seeing now is simple virus fatigue. I'll admit to not washing or sanitizing my hands nearly as much as I did, and I've become a lot laxer about some other things, as well.

People are getting fatigued with all of this. Their minds are shutting off and they're not being hyper vigilant the way they were.

[French G.]

The debate remains lively both in the nation and in my house. Pro lockdown people just handwavium away any real costs associated with lockdown. I realize that I have a non zero chance of dying of Rona. Also the same for driving to work and my commute is a doozy. In numbers those chances are roughly the same. And they are a lot smaller than the chance of losing everything I worked for if I don’t go, so we get in the car. From government I just want good data and recommendations. Beyond that, it is on me.

[K Frame]

Biden Advisors nix idea of a nationwide shutdown...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/biden-advisor-dr-gounder-says-covid-advisory-panel-doesnt-support-full-us-lockdown.html

[MillCreek]

The Washington state governor did a conference last night at which he encouraged mask wearing, social distancing, working from home and cancellation of Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations.  He said he will have additional announcements next week.  Those of us in healthcare are wondering it there will be another ban on elective hospital admissions and surgeries and/or closure of medical clinics.   The hospitals here are seeing spikes, and we are keeping a close eye on bed and staffing capacity.

[makattak]

A lot of what we're seeing now is simple virus fatigue. I'll admit to not washing or sanitizing my hands nearly as much as I did, and I've become a lot laxer about some other things, as well.

People are getting fatigued with all of this. Their minds are shutting off and they're not being hyper vigilant the way they were.

It's not just fatigue. It's a rational reaction because the virus isn't that dangerous.

If this was killing off 50% of the infected, people would take extra precautions. Heck, 5-10% is probably enough.

This is a disease that kills less than 1% of the people infected. Despite being forced to "take precautions" people are only doing what is necessary not to get hassled. The aren't doing it because they are afraid of the disease, and that is very rational.

Our policies, as ever, completely ignore human nature and the policymakers think they can just pass a rule and then everything is fixed.

And, as ever, we're finding our policymakers are morons. Highly educated morons.

[charby]

I wonder how people would react if the virus made 10-20% of those infected infertile? Kind of like mumps but a higher % of permanent infertility.

[Ben]

I wonder how people would react if the virus made 10-20% of those infected infertile? Kind of like mumps but a higher % of permanent infertility.

I recently started watching Newsmax TV Live, and caught the tail end of some researcher talking about the potential for the virus to affect testicles, leaving men infertile. Apparently this is a possibility with many viruses. I don't know what the context of the conversation was.

[DittoHead]

While I don't expect a nation-wide lockdown, it looks like it's time to flatten the curve again in some places.

Hospitals in northwestern Wisconsin are at 100 percent capacity, officials said, as the state continues to battle a record number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The Mayo Clinic Health System, which operates hospitals in the region encompassing Barron, Bloomer, Eau Claire, Osseo and Menomonie, said all their beds were full as of Tuesday afternoon, according to WQOW. Eighty-three of its patients had COVID-19.

I heard a story about someone having a heart attack last week in northern WI, the local clinic could give him drugs to stabilize him but then he had to wait 18 hours for a hospital bed to open up. He got 3 stents and was lucky he didn't die while waiting.
Dying from COVID isn't the only thing to worry about with high COVID rates.

[charby]

While I don't expect a nation-wide lockdown, it looks like it's time to flatten the curve again in some places.I heard a story about someone having a heart attack last week in northern WI, the local clinic could give him drugs to stabilize him but then he had to wait 18 hours for a hospital bed to open up. He got 3 stents and was lucky he didn't die while waiting.
Dying from COVID isn't the only thing to worry about with high COVID rates.

Well according to the news in my local, it's Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin where it's going crazy. I'll probably be getting my nasal swab weekly now since I travel 15-20 counties in Iowa for work. 

[Perd Hapley]

The Left seems to have been trying to sabotage any chance that Americans might accept or abide by lockdown or social distancing guidelines.* They didn't just wink at the summer riots, they ennobled them, and even specifically said they were more important than "stopping the spread." Any non-Leftist who didn't follow the rules they pointedly and elaborately mocked, and demonized, even as they themselves shamelessly flouted those rules. When they could have apologized for such; or for inviting people to Chinatown, or other early failures to take the plague seriously, they instead pushed lies about Republicans' alleged failures. Compare and contrast the Left Media's treatment of Governor Cuomo vs Governor Desantis.

The Left trivialized the whole matter with shameless politicizing, some even going so far as to say they wouldn't re-open schools again, until they got their way on totally unrelated political issues. That's on top of years of shameless lying, and outright denial of basic biological facts (about gender and reproduction) - so excuse me if I don't trust The Science they keep pushing. They've never met a science they didn't want to pervert for political gain.


*That's not to say America isn't going to be fooled by the Left's dog and pony show about covid. If the election results are any guide, the Left's lies work. They work well.

[kgbsquirrel]

I think it will kill off the remaining small businesses that are barely holding on now.

Gotta force people into desperation so they will welcome the insane reset.

[Ron]

Members of both parties have been caught acting contrary to the official diktats and suggestions, going to large gatherings, not wearing masks, not social distancing etc.

Members of both political parties have been advocating that folks attend large gatherings to support their positions, where all their safety diktats and suggestions are ignored.

Members of our government from both parties have contracted the wuhan flu, took some time off and came back to work seemingly no worse for wear.

You don't have to be of very high IQ to draw conclusions from the way those who are "leading", act.

Never in history have the healthy been quarantined.

The sick, elderly and at risk have always been the ones quarantined.