Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Balog on November 13, 2009, 11:37:15 PM
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So after having about a dozen threads consolidated into one I got the hint and have decided to start one thread as a running repository of all the negative news stories I'm finding these days. This will prevent the front page from getting crowded, and ensure no one loses track of a discussion because it's suddenly in a thread that's almost but not entirely unrelated to it.
I need to add the disclaimer that my posting an article is not an indication that I agree with everything it says. I may in fact post an article I vehemently disagree with, should it contain interesting data.
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And people wonder why talks about replacing the dollar as the world reserve currency are becoming more credible.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g8xN5q0b0X5GBVkEEfWfxdWKr6FAD9BTCTOO2
Dollar falls to 15-month low despite US support
(AP) – 2 days ago
NEW YORK — The dollar dropped to a new 15-month low as the the euro rose above $1.50 Wednesday morning, even as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated the administration's stance that a strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy.
Geithner, in a speech in Tokyo on his way to a summit of Asian finance ministers in Singapore, also said low interest rates and other government supports for the economy were still needed.
The expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep the key U.S. interest rate near zero has been weighing on the dollar. Higher interest rates make a currency more attractive for investors, since bets made in that currency can earn higher returns.
In morning trading in New York, the 16-nation euro rose to $1.5026 from $1.4978 late Tuesday. The British pound fell to $1.6665 from $1.6737, and the dollar edged up to 89.80 Japanese yen from 89.77 yen.
The dollar also slipped to 1.0047 Swiss francs from 1.0081 francs, and fell to 1.0455 Canadian dollars from 1.0496 late Tuesday.
Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar hit a 15-month low of 74.775.
"The momentum and the conviction that the Fed will not raise rates any time soon, coupled with the fact that the major central banks continue to provide liquidity liberally" means the "fundamental force" weighing on the dollar will persist, said Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Marc Chandler in a research note Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials speaking late Tuesday noted that the economic recovery is likely to be weak and reiterated that the central bank will keep rates low.
One official even suggested that the first rate hikes could be delayed until 2011.
"Any perception the Fed will keep rates lower for even longer will pressure the dollar," said UBS analyst Geoffrey Yu.
Investors around the world are viewing the dollar as weaker than other currencies because of low U.S. interest rates and huge budget deficits. They're using it for what's known as "carry trade" — traders borrowing dollars to make investments in emerging-market currencies, oil or equities. That bet weighs on the dollar.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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We'll see. From what I've seen, China's leaders tend to be less stupid than our own. I have no doubt China is cooking numbers, but remember, they're sitting on significant capital reserves and manufacturing capacities.
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*Looks at China, beats keyboard with shoe*
Whether you like it or not, Fistful is on our side. We will bury you!
*puts away shoe*
Boom and bust are never far apart. Make too little stuff, you miss out on lots of extra profits. Make too much, and you're left with full warehouses and no buyers in sight, even when you're selling for a loss.
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You're just full of all kinds of good news tonight, aren't you Balog?
The problem is, most of it is accurate.
Sigh...
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Merged similar topics.
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Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics — like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption — indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books.
China is a fundamentally dishonest nation. I don't mean just that it's dishonest because it's communist, although communism and its slightly more polite kid brother socialism are inherently dishonest. I mean lying is socially acceptable in China.
That saidâ„¢, the communist regime's efforts to jigger that nation's economy will probably hasten economic trouble, which, in turn, will hasten the regime's collapse. Purportedly "managed" economies are inherently unstable.
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China is a fundamentally dishonest nation. I don't mean just that it's dishonest because it's communist, although communism and its slightly more polite kid brother socialism are inherently dishonest. I mean lying is socially acceptable in China.
That saidâ„¢, the communist regime's efforts to jigger that nation's economy will probably hasten economic trouble, which, in turn, will hasten the regime's collapse. Purportedly "managed" economies are inherently unstable.
Exactly what my wife discovered when she taught English there.
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I mean lying is socially acceptable in China.
My understanding is, guilt is not a motivator, shame is.
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TBH if anything is going to cause a crash in China its the fact that they hold so much bad debt.
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That is a lot of banks going down. Hope no one here has been hurt by this. More still to come...
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/13/news/economy/bank_failure/
Bank failure toll reaches 123
Regulators close two Florida banks and on in California, costing the FDIC $986.4 million.
By Hibah Yousuf, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: November 13, 2009: 8:25 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Two Florida banks and one in California failed Friday night, bring the 2009 national tally to 123. Regulators closed Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank in Sarasota, Fla., Orion Bank in Naples, Fla., and Pacific Coast National Bank in San Clemente, Calif.
Customers of all the failed banks are protected, however. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which has insured bank deposits since the Great Depression, currently covers customer accounts up to $250,000.
Iberiabank in Lafayette, La., will assume both Florida banks' $2.731 billion in deposits, according to the FDIC. Iberiabank also entered into a loss-share agreement with the FDIC on $656 million of Century Bank's $725 million in assets and on $1.9 billion of Orion Bank's $2.7 billion in assets.
The 11 branches of Century Bank and 23 branches of Orion Bank will reopen as branches of Iberiabank.
Sunwest Bank in Tustin, Calif. will assume Pacific Coast's $134.4 million in assets and $130.9 million in deposits, according to the FDIC. The two branches of Pacific Coast will reopen as branches of Sunwest Bank.
Customers of the failed banks can access their money over the weekend by writing checks or using ATMs or debit cards. Checks will continue to be processed, and borrowers should make mortgage and loan payments as usual.
The FDIC also said customers should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice that the takeover has been completed.
An average of 11 banks have failed per month this year, and the federal coffer is thinning under the massive strain.
The fund now stands below $10 billion, down significantly from $45 billion a year ago. Friday's closure will cost the FDIC an estimated $986.4 million.
After factoring in expected closures, the agency says its insurance fund is in the red and will remain there through 2012. Over the next four years, the agency expects bank closures will cost $100 billion.
The bank failure count for 2009 is still far from 1989's record high of 534 bank closures which took place during the savings and loan crisis, when the insurance fund also carried a negative balance.
The tally is nearly five times the number that failed in 2008, and the highest tally since 1992 when 181 banks failed. To top of page
First Published: November 13, 2009: 6:28 PM ET
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Well, since there are currently over 15,000 banks or CU's in the country....
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String of financial threads merged.
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during the s&l crisi my understanding was the "regulators" put some of them under where they were scooped up .
the example i know of the institution had loaned money during the last boom the crash came and while the amount loaned hadn't gone up the value of the collateral had gone down and the rtc stepped in to save the day. as part of the "government help" they called in loans to a number of folks business and personal. loans that were not in arrears. as a result i know of several builders that went bankrupt and one 10 mill plus horse farm that was foreclosed and sold for 3.5 mill to a developer who held it for 5 years then turned it into a big development off rt 28 and linden hall road. i suspect we will get more help like that
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Well, since there are currently over 15,000 banks or CU's in the country....
Wait, wait.
America has 50 banks per million citizens? Seriously?
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Wait, wait.
America has 50 banks per million citizens? Seriously?
Are you commenting on the availability of banking services to an average citizen, Micro? I'm thinking that number does not take into account the multiple branches of each bank. Factor that in, and there is a bank on almost every street corner. (Some exaggeration here to make the point.)
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I'm commenting on the amount of competition available in the banking sector.
In Israel we have 16 banks, including foreign banks that do not give service to the average citizen. This comes out to approximately 2.2 banks per million citizens, or 1/25th of the comparable US number.
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I'm commenting on the amount of competition available in the banking sector.
In Israel we have 16 banks, including foreign banks that do not give service to the average citizen. This comes out to approximately 2.2 banks per million citizens, or 1/25th of the comparable US number.
Dude, we got banks coming outta our ears.
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Dude, we got banks coming outta our ears.
Which should cause questions to be asked about operating margins.
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I live in a town of 11,000, and we've got...around 5 different banks. Maybe more.
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I grew up near a town of 4000. There were at least 2 banks and one savings and loan that I can think of off the top of my head. The town was the county seat also. Farming/retirement community.
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Three in my town of 6000 (that's if you include the bank branch inside of th egrocery store.)
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>In Israel we have 16 banks, including foreign banks that do not give service to the average citizen. This comes out to approximately 2.2 banks per million citizens, or 1/25th of the comparable US number.<
If you think we have a lot of banks, you should see how many Starbucks we've got... >:D
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It's interesting, one hears a lot about the zomg amazing Chinese market growth. I wonder what effect a crash in China would have globally? This is just an excerpt, moar at the linkie.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29330.html
Now, Chanos says he has found another “trust me” story: China. And he is moving to short the entire nation’s economy. Washington policymakers would do well to understand his argument, because if he’s right, the consequences will be felt here.
Chanos and the other bears point to several key pieces of evidence that China is heading for a crash.
First, they point to the enormous Chinese economic stimulus effort — with the government spending $900 billion to prop up a $4.3 trillion economy. “Yet China’s economy, for all the stimulus it has received in 11 months, is underperforming,” Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” wrote in Forbes at the end of October. “More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.”
Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics — like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption — indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.
Another data point cited by the bears: overcapacity. For example, the Chinese already consume more cement than the rest of the world combined, at 1.4 billion tons per year. But they have dramatically ramped up their ability to produce even more in recent years, leading to an estimated spare capacity of about 340 million tons, which, according to a report prepared earlier this year by Pivot Capital Management, is more than the consumption in the U.S., India and Japan combined.
This, Chanos and others argue, is happening in sector after sector in the Chinese economy. And that means the Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.
The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos’s office and concluded, “We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.”
And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing’s “stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.”
“I was shocked at what I saw,” the blogger wrote. “Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. ... There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers.”
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The comments about deflation remind me of HTG. The article is biased, but has some interesting facts if you can look past that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6575883/China-has-now-become-the-biggest-risk-to-the-world-economy.html
China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy
Far from taking over as the engine of growth from an exhausted West, China is making matters worse. Its "beggar-thy-neighbour" policies continue to play havoc with global trade and risk tipping the world into a second leg of the Great Recession.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:21PM GMT 15 Nov 2009
"The inherent problems of the international economic system have not been fully addressed," said China's president Hu Jintao. Indeed not. China is still exporting overcapacity to the rest of us on a grand scale, with deflationary consequences.
While some fret about liquidity-driven inflation, Justin Lin, World Bank chief economist, said the greater danger is that record levels of idle plant almost everywhere will feed a downward spiral of job cuts and corporate busts. "I'm more worried about deflation," he said.
By holding the yuan to 6.83 to the dollar to boost exports, Beijing is dumping its unemployment abroad – "stealing American jobs", says Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. As long as China does it, other tigers must do it too.
Western capitalists are complicit, of course. They rent cheap workers and cheap plant in Guangdong, then lobby Capitol Hill to prevent Congress doing anything about it. This is labour arbitrage.
At some point, American workers will rebel. US unemployment is already 17.5pc under the broad "U6" gauge followed by Barack Obama. Realty Track said that 332,000 properties were foreclosed in October alone. More Americans have lost their homes this year than during the entire decade of the Great Depression. A backlog of 7m homes is awaiting likely seizure by lenders. If you are not paying attention to this political time-bomb, perhaps you should.
President Obama said before going to China this week that Asia can no longer live by shipping goods to Americans already in debt to their ears. "We have reached one of those rare inflection points in history where we have the opportunity to take a different path," he said. Failure to take that path will "put enormous strains" on America's ties to China. Is that a threat?
It is fashionable to talk of America as the supplicant. That misreads the strategic balance. Washington can bring China to its knees at any time by shutting markets. There is no symmetry here. Any move by Beijing to liquidate its holdings of US Treasuries could be neutralized – in extremis – by capital controls. Well-armed sovereign states can do whatever they want.
If provoked, the US has the economic depth to retreat into near autarky (with NAFTA) and retool its industries behind tariff walls – as Britain did in the 1930s under Imperial Preference. In such circumstances, China would collapse. Mao statues would be toppled by street riots.
Mr Hu sounded conciliatory last week. China is taking "vigorous" steps to cut reliance on exports, still 39pc of GDP. "We want to increase people's ability to spend," he said.
Beijing is indeed boosting pensions and extending health insurance to the countryside so that people feel less need to save, but cultural revolutions take time. All we have seen so far are "baby steps", says Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach.
The reality is that much of Beijing's $600bn stimulus has been spent building yet more plant and infrastructure so that China can ship yet more goods, or has leaked into property and stocks.
Credit has exploded. Allocated by Maoist bosses for political purposes, it has become absurd. China is rolling as much steel as the next eight producers combined. It is churning more cement than the rest of the world. Fixed investment is up 53pc this year. Once you know that Hunan authorities have torn down two miles of modern flyway so that they can soak up stimulus by building it again, or that the newly-built city of Ordos is sitting empty in Inner Mongolia, you know what must come next.
Pivot Asset Management said lending has touched 140pc of GDP, "well beyond" levels that have led to crises in the past. With the revolution's 60th birthday out of the way, the central bank has begun to tighten. New yuan loans halved in October. So be careful. Pivot said a hard-landing in China could prove as traumatic for world markets as the US sub-prime crash.
The world economy is still skating on thin ice. The West is sated with debt, the East with plant. The crisis has been contained (or masked) by zero rates and a fiscal blast, trashing sovereign balance sheets. But the core problem remains. The Anglo-sphere and Club Med are tightening belts, yet Asia is not adding enough demand to compensate. It is adding supply.
My view is that markets are still in denial about the structural wreckage of the credit bubble. There are two more boils to lance: China's investment bubble; and Europe's banking cover-up. I fear that only then can we clear the rubble and, very slowly, start a fresh cycle.
Ambrose Evans Pritchard
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Very interesting animated map demonstrating unemployment rates over time.
http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html
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Ireland to pay immigrants to repatriate, as they cannot afford to provide social services ie welfare, to so many people. One wonders if the idea of cutting the welfare ever occurred to them...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/15/ireland-pay-immigrants-go-home
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Financial types fear asset prices may be rising too fast, too soon. What's that line about people who don't learn from the past? Mashie the linkie, these are just a few excerpts.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/14/bubble-fears-as-asset-prices-jump
Around the world, asset prices are booming. Relief that the global economy has avoided the Armageddon feared in March, combined with large dollops of virtually free money, have helped put a smile back on the faces of the speculators. Too big a smile, according to some experts, since the buoyancy of asset markets is not reflected in the real economy.
Away from the frenzied financial world, among struggling firms and cash-strapped families, signs of recovery from the worst downturn since the 1930s have been much patchier. The US returned to growth in the third quarter, thanks to Washington's cash-for-clunkers scheme and tax breaks for first-time homebuyers. But unemployment is at its highest level since 1983 and the number of Americans losing their homes is still rocketing, so Fed chairman Ben Bernanke still has plenty to worry about.
"Growth" that consists of wasteful fed.gov spending and people getting loans they may not be able to pay off. Yeah, how could that go wrong?
He is not the only Cassandra. Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists to see the crisis coming, warned this month that the US had replaced Japan as the centre of the global "carry trade" (whereby investors borrow money cheaply in a currency with low interest rates and buy risky assets that offer a return higher than the interest due on the loan). With the US Federal Reserve pledging to keep interest rates only just above zero for "an extended period", Roubini says dollars, instead of yen, are now being used in "the mother of all carry trades", forcing up the price of all kinds of other assets
But markets tend to have only two moods: deep gloom and wild euphoria. Having prepared for the return of soup kitchens in the spring, they are now betting on a strong and rapid return to business as usual – a so-called "V-shaped recovery". And that's what worries analysts, who are not comforted by the age-old cry that "it's different this time".
"It sounds too good to be true and it is," says Robert Barrie of Credit Suisse. "It's time to take asset prices and credit more seriously. They can have long-run effects that are big and problematic. They took a long time to show themselves last time and could do so again."
Concerns about a new speculative bubble fall into three categories. The first is that the recent track record of central banks does not engender much optimism that they will be able to distinguish between a credit bubble and an irrational exuberance bubble, or indeed spot either sort developing. The Fed, for example, denied that the US housing market was a bubble right up until the point the global financial system was paralysed by the sub-prime meltdown in 2007, and the Bank of England flatly rejected arguments that central banks ought to "lean against the wind" and prevent prices in markets such as housing getting out of kilter.
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A Wall Street Journal article that's also expressing concerns that the Fed is creating yet another credit bubble. Lots more at the link.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574529510954803156.html
In the Woody Allen film "Annie Hall," the main character tries to explain irrational relationships by recounting an old joke. "This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, 'My brother's crazy, he thinks he's a chicken.' The doctor says, 'Well, why don't you turn him in?' And the guy says, 'I would, but I need the eggs.'"
It takes similar reasoning to reconcile the elation felt across America every time the stock market rises—partially replenishing personal investment portfolios and 401(k) retirement plans—with the uneasy feeling that we are being set up for yet another big financial disappointment. We dare to hope that the economy is growing solidly once more, that the Federal Reserve has superior knowledge about providing liquidity, and that the U.S. Treasury knows what it's doing by guaranteeing money market-fund assets.
But what if the Fed's efforts to stoke a recovery are merely creating asset bubbles in equities and elsewhere? What if government guarantees—explicit and implicit—are encouraging high-risk investment behavior rather than restoring conditions for normal market returns? What if excess dollars produced here are being channeled by speculators into foreign stock and bond markets as part of a currency play?
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Another on the danger of continued near zero interest rates, this time talking about the "dollar carry trade" aspect. Moar at zee link.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6915447.ece
The global economy may be poised for the creation of a massive and potentially explosive “dollar carry trade” — just like the pre-crisis yen carry trade, only more frightening and potentially much bigger.
The warning was issued today at a summit of Asia Pacific leaders in Singapore and comes as a diverse variety of assets have begun to display bubble-like patterns of inflation: everything from gold and copper to fine wine and Hong Kong penthouses.
The dollar carry trade, whereby investors borrow dollars at near zero interest rates to fund asset-buying sprees around the world, has been lurking as a possibility since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year and the extreme monetary response to its aftermath.
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I am so totally blaming your for my depression.
(I'm kidding here folks, we all know it's Fistful's fault.)
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The carry trade thing is interesting. It deserves some thought.
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So after having about a dozen threads consolidated into one I got the hint and have decided to start one thread as a running repository of all the negative news stories I'm finding these days
Only part of the hint, evidently.
For a minute there, I almost thought a certain departed, OMGWTF poster had since returned, but it does indeed say Balog's Bad News Thread on the topic header. :O
In response to my own somewhat pointed, what-value-added-to-APS question, I'm still trying to grok what the motivation is to start such a Gloom & Doom thread. My head 'asplode, so I'm logging off and walking the dog again. At least that makes sense...
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Wow.
For a minute there, I almost thought Manedwolf had returned, but it does indeed say Balog's Bad News Thread on the topic header. :O
Hey, I'm just posting 'em, not frothing about 'em. ;) Besides, it's all economics, no little kids peeing in the streets. :D
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Tough crowd.
First depression, and now you're as bad as manedwolf.
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In response to my own somewhat pointed, what-value-added-to-APS question, I'm still trying to grok what the motivation is to start such a Gloom & Doom thread.
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Wha? Value added to APS? WHAT MADNESS IS THIS?
=D
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It has value, since as a less less risk averse than most private investor I am trying to read the big picture tea leaves for the next 6-9 months and make some decisions. My personal feeling is that most stock market indices will continue to gain until about early spring then the bottom is going to fall out. Again. We'll see, just my guess based on some of the gloom and doom I've read. =D My retirement, fully recovered from the great recession of 07-09, is not looking for another bloodbath.
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Credit behavior is the tell.
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I don't understand; I'm not very good at hints, especially over the internet.
Am I not allowed to post negative news stories, or just not a lot of them, or....??? I respect this is Oleg's house and ya'll are his choices to regulate it. I want to abide by the rules and be a peaceful and productive poster, but I'm genuinely confused. As far as I can see I've violated no rules, nor breached any etiquette aside from posting so many threads at once that first time. And I started this thread to fix that issue. Heck, I even started a fun and light hearted thread about bands to try to counterbalance this one.
I think America is headed down a bad path, and I am trying to educate myself on the actual state of things. I thought others might be interested in what I find, or might want to discuss it. If another, more severe market crash is coming as I think, being informed can only be a good thing.
As for the Manedwolf comparison, that's unfair. I post a description/comment on each article so it's not a drive-by, then put the facts out for inspection. The problem with Maned was he freaked out and ranted and raved; he also (pretty viciously at times) attacked anyone who disagreed with him/was a free stater or Paulian/was a Democrat. This thread and it's predecessor makes no "Wolverines!!" fantasy teotwawki claims, insults no forum members, and as far as I can tell does no harm to the content or reputation of APS.
In any case, I respect that the mods have the final say about the forum. If this thread isn't appropriate lock it or send it to the land of wind and ghosts and I'll stop posting news stories. I guess I won't be updating this thread until I hear the verdict from the assorted mod types. :(
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I find this thread of value. I am interested in such stories but working 60hr weeks leaves me little time to go out and find these stories on my own.
Thanks for sharing Balog.
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I can tell you what doesn't add value to APS and that is a Barney Frank avatar.
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Barney Frank doesn't add value anywhere.
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Can't...resist...
Barney Frank doesn't add value anywhere.
True, he'll, uh, siphon off value from every commercial concern he roughly regulates.
(Except those involving prostitution rings run from his apartment by his partner.)
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Don't forget the diminished impact on horticultural endeavors. He's not much of an outdoorsman, after all.
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As regards "Balogs Unremitting Catalog of Depression," it seems pretty harmless if contained in this one thread.
Obviously, Balog ought to get a copy of this in his stocking come Christmas:
http://www.amazon.com/Are-Doomed-Reclaiming-Conservative-Pessimism/dp/0307409589/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258573555&sr=1-1
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fecx.images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F51UKyuxepkL._BO2%2C204%2C203%2C200_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-click%2CTopRight%2C35%2C-76_AA240_SH20_OU01_.jpg&hash=092459e289498730579c651ad6bacc5f86210cc1)
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Why would we want to reclaim pessimism?
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Why would we want to reclaim pessimism?
Pessimism WRT human nature relative to the "scratch a swarthy savage with a bone through his nose and you'll find an American" optimism.
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If you think we have a lot of banks, you should see how many Starbucks we've got... >:D
Hey, there are only half a dozen Starbucks in my town. I even verified that on their website. Of course, we have about three dozen Biggbys.
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We only have two Starbucks here. Though, that may be because the market was already thoroughly saturated before the second one moved in. We have somewhere around 10 different coffee/espresso joints. Maybe more.
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Where I live, our population is 80,641. We have 5 different coffee shops, 10 banks, and 66 churches. Not gonna try and count all the bars...
Remember: in Wisconsin, all you need to count as a town is to have a church and a bar. Don't have those (regardless of population), you don't have a town...
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Every dog has its day.
China's getting old, it's polluted, there's a shortage of women, 750M restive peasants, and they're losing manufacturing jobs to lower strata nations.
When everyone is shouting "China, China, China!" you can bet you are five years too late.
Invest in the Sudan and Somalia. So very low P/E ratios there. :)
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When even the New York Times is saying our debt is unserviceable, you know it's bad. Lots moar at linkie.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/23/business/23rates.html?_r=1
The problem, many analysts say, is that record government deficits have arrived just as the long-feared explosion begins in spending on benefits under Medicare and Social Security. The nation’s oldest baby boomers are approaching 65, setting off what experts have warned for years will be a fiscal nightmare for the government.
The current low rates on the country’s debt were caused by temporary factors that are already beginning to fade. One factor was the economic crisis itself, which caused panicked investors around the world to plow their money into the comparative safety of Treasury bills and notes. Even though the United States was the epicenter of the global crisis, investors viewed Treasury securities as the least dangerous place to park their money.
On top of that, the Fed used almost every tool in its arsenal to push interest rates down even further. It cut the overnight federal funds rate, the rate at which banks lend reserves to one another, to almost zero. And to reduce longer-term rates, it bought more than $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and government-guaranteed securities linked to mortgages.
The White House estimates that the government will have to borrow about $3.5 trillion more over the next three years. On top of that, the Treasury has to refinance, or roll over, a huge amount of short-term debt that was issued during the financial crisis. Treasury officials estimate that about 36 percent of the government’s marketable debt — about $1.6 trillion — is coming due in the months ahead.
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Even some banks see it coming...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.
(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.
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The number of defaults on fixed rate loans to people with good credit is rising. Well, that's not a good sign is it?
http://www.star-telegram.com/business/story/1776829.html
Driven by rising unemployment, such loans accounted for nearly one-third of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with 21 percent a year ago, when high-risk subprime loans made during the housing boom were the main reason for default.
At the same time, the proportion of homeowners with a mortgage who were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure hit a record high for the ninth straight quarter, rising to 9.64 percent.
Lost jobs are now the main reason that homeowners fall behind on mortgages. By contrast, during the housing boom, dubious and risky loans were the leading cause.
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If it's a good sign, it probably shouldn't be in this thread.
[popcorn]
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25 million people either under- or un-employed, so it's no wonder job seekers exceed openings by 6 to 1. I'm so glad I have a job.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/business/economy/27jobs.html?_r=1&hp
Job seekers now outnumber openings six to one, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. According to the Labor Department’s latest numbers, from July, only 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed.
The dearth of jobs reflects the caution of many American businesses when no one knows what will emerge to propel the economy. With unemployment at 9.7 percent nationwide, the shortage of paychecks is both a cause and an effect of weak hiring.
This is why I'm glad to be learning a trade. Always needed, can save lots of money DIYing, and able to barter skills for tangible goods.
In the suburbs of Chicago, Vicki Redican, 52, has been unemployed for almost two years, since she lost her $75,000-a-year job as a sales and marketing manager at a plastics company. College-educated, Ms. Redican first sought another management job. More recently, she has tried and failed to land a cashier’s position at a local grocery store, and a barista slot at a Starbucks coffee shop.
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The number of defaults on fixed rate loans to people with good credit is rising. Well, that's not a good sign is it?
I think that is what you meant.
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I think that is what you meant.
D'oh! So it is. Correcting....
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No, they tried to make things look better? I can't believe that... ;/
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/24/economic-growth-revised-rd-quarter/
Economic Growth Revised Down in 3rd Quarter
The economy grew at a 2.8 percent pace last quarter, as the recovery got off to a slower start than first thought.
The Commerce Department's new reading on gross domestic product wasn't as energetic as the 3.5 percent growth rate for the July-September period estimated just a month ago.
The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn't spend as much, commercial construction was weaker and the nation's trade deficit was more of a drag on growth. Businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, another restraining factor.
Growth probably won't be strong enough to quickly drive down the nation's unemployment rate, currently at 10.2 percent. It's only the second time in the post-World War II period that unemployment has topped 10 percent.
^^ But, but, but... it's a jobless recovery!
On the business side, companies cut back spending on commercial construction -- a weak spot in the economy -- at 15.1 percent annualized pace. That was deeper than the 9 percent annualized cut back first estimated.
^^ I work in commercial property management, and I was talking to one of our electrical contractors. Their shop went from 150 to 30 people, and she's been getting 20 hours a week for a while. And her firm does remodels! The new construction people are really hurting...
Unlike past rebounds that were driven by the spending of everyday Americans, this one appears to hinge on spending by businesses, foreigners and -- until it runs out -- the government.
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So fed.gov's enabling risky behaviour has... spurred more risky behaviour? Must be one of those lies told by the vast right wing conspiracy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a5WUfwKBQm9Y
U.S. stocks and oil fell, the dollar weakened against the yen and Treasuries rallied as a Federal Reserve warning that low interest rates may cause “excessive risk-taking” drove investors to the relative safety of government debt.
“There was a tech bubble and there was a real estate/financial bubble, and those were aided and abetted by Federal Reserve policy,” said Dean Gulis, part of a group that manages $2.5 billion for Loomis Sayles & Co. in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. “It’s not unreasonable to suggest that some of the same characteristics are evolving.”
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45 banks from around the globe evaluated for stability, and all fail badly. Awesome. On the other hand, I like this writer's style. "Spectacularly useless..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6638922/Most-global-banks-are-still-unsafe-warns-SandP.html
Every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P's list of 45 global lenders fails the 8pc safety level under the agency's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Most fall woefully short.
While some banks may look healthy under normal Tier 1 and leverage targets, critics claim these measures can be highly misleading since they fail to discriminate between high-risk and low-risk uses of leverage. The system failed to pick up the danger signals before the financial crisis. The supposedly moderate leverage of US banks in 2007 proved to be a spectacularly useless indicator.
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Revivifying this one, as I still think the purpose is good.
It's a slow fall, but we're still headed down.
http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2014/06/dont-lose-sight-of-slow-motion-economic.html
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When Japan started on the path we are on (it began in the nineties and continues to today, actually), they called it the "Lost Decade".
We'll be lucky if that's as long as it lasts.
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I've wondered for years when it's all going to fall apart. When nobody gets fooled by the lies anymore.
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Once the active committed moochers hit 51% of the population is there any going back?
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I've been of the opinion for a long time that we are passed the point of recovery. It's just a matter of how soon and how deep the crater will be.
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I've been of the opinion for a long time that we are passed the point of recovery. It's just a matter of how soon and how deep the crater will be.
I wish I could disagree. I fear for my kids
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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They could have at least tried to keep up airspeed and set us up for a hard dead stick landing, but no- the fools have the stick pulled full back and we are going for the full stall-spin-crater scenario.
When we crash hard, the PTB will point the finger at the middle class , call them the "rich", and pay their dependents, in food, to go "get those greedy hoarders" or some such. It is the logical evolution of what we are seeing every day.
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Once the active committed moochers hit 51% of the population is there any going back?
There are ways to attrit the FSA to a lesser proportion of the population.
I wish I could disagree. I fear for my kids
Me, too. One reason why wife and I are thinking of using the summers in high school for votech training before we send them off to college, if we can still afford to do so when the graduate HS. Between a substantive degree and a trade, we hope they will be able to bob & weave and hold things together enough to make a living.
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They could have at least tried to keep up airspeed and set us up for a hard dead stick landing, but no- the fools have the stick pulled full back and we are going for the full stall-spin-crater scenario.
When we crash hard, the PTB will point the finger at the middle class , call them the "rich", and pay their dependents, in food, to go "get those greedy hoarders" or some such. It is the logical evolution of what we are seeing every day.
Quit it... you're giving me a stiffy.
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This is why I'm glad to be learning a trade. Always needed, can save lots of money DIYing, and able to barter skills for tangible goods.
Unfortunately, you, and probably the majority of people on here who CAN DYI are outnumbered by the herds of sheeple who don't even know where food comes from, let alone could fix even something simple.
The Golden Horde is in fact, comprised of people who have no clue how to build/fix/operate or add value to anything really.
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http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2014/06/a-different-and-scary-look-at-inflation.html
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Unfortunately, you, and probably the majority of people on here who CAN DYI are outnumbered by the herds of sheeple who don't even know where food comes from, let alone could fix even something simple.
The Golden Horde is in fact, comprised of people who have no clue how to build/fix/operate or add value to anything really.
I see so much of that in so many aspects of life. Recent examples are the other folks with sailboats at the marina I'm at. I mention having done some project or repair on my boat and there always seems to be a handful of people that are amazed that I did that all by myself.
Most of the close circle of people I associate with are of the DIY types. We're the ones that are amazed that someone didn't have the ability to do some (to us) simple repair/project.
I could probably make pretty good spending money doing odd jobs for boat folks but that would be undermining the marina. I like the folks running the marina and I also think that it's fair for folks to have to pay for their ignorance.
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http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2014/06/a-different-and-scary-look-at-inflation.html
Was planning on mentioning that. Preacherman being his usual cheery self.
Put another way the price of everything assuming constant technology has approximately doubled and your purchasing power has been cut in half.
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Most of the close circle of people I associate with are of the DIY types. We're the ones that are amazed that someone didn't have the ability to do some (to us) simple repair/project.
This is one of the things my landlord likes about having me as a tenant. He stopped by a couple days ago to check on a fallen tree on the vacant lot next door, (Black walnut. I lost my chainsaw in the divorce, or the logs would already be curing in the shop.) and I was priming the stairs with some leftover Kilz from some other project at a previous house. (Already had the roller out to paint the wall behind the stove, and I don't even try to clean roller covers after using them with oil-based paint.) They've needed it for years, but the college kids he's had living here weren't the DIY types...to the extent that they peed in the bathtub for two days until he could get there to fix the broken clip on the toilet's flush chain. Bonus for me; now that they're white instead of half bare weathered wood and half battleship gray, I can see them in the moonlight when I forget to leave the porch light on.
I've already planned out replacing the copper-tubing-and-chain shower curtain frame with conduit on standoffs, and making a pot rack for the kitchen the same way, and will probably replace the decking on the porch by the end of the year. He offered to discount the rent for materials, but I'm planning to deck with pallet scraps from work, (We get a lot topped with 3/4" marine plywood that the edges get trashed on, so it ends up being a 4x6' sheet with a couple of nail holes in it. Not a standard size, but it's free and the boss doesn't have to deal with so much bulky stuff headed to the burn pile.) and conduit is so cheap it's not worth keeping receipts for two sticks. He'll probably drop some reasonable, round number off the rent at Christmas and/or start dropping off any extra supplies he has from working on his 6-7 other rent houses. Either way, he won't raise the rent on me for repairs and improvements I do, (been there, resisted the urge to drop a match on my way out) and it's already only $300/mo.
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This is why you should regard any statistic the .gov publishes as completely and totally false. "Oh, it shrank %1.0 due to the weather." Next news cycle "Whoopsie, it was actually %2.9!"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/us-usa-economy-growth-idUSKBN0F01CD20140625
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Got granddad's old chainsaw from storage, promptly pulled the start handle right off, and disassembled it on the bench, figuring it probably needs more than just a new cord after 8-10 years in storage. Cleaned up the carb and lines, and left it stripped down for all the cleaner to dry out overnight. Landlord came out and cut the tree up the next morning. No more motivation to work on the chainsaw. It's probably going to sit there until I really need the bench space.
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Got granddad's old chainsaw from storage, promptly pulled the start handle right off, and disassembled it on the bench, figuring it probably needs more than just a new cord after 8-10 years in storage. Cleaned up the carb and lines, and left it stripped down for all the cleaner to dry out overnight. Landlord came out and cut the tree up the next morning. No more motivation to work on the chainsaw. It's probably going to sit there until I really need the bench space.
???
Wrong thread?
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???
Wrong thread?
Serious drift! =D
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???
Wrong thread?
Just a followup to the previous "not DIY types" sub-thread.
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This is why you should regard any statistic the .gov publishes as completely and totally false. "Oh, it shrank %1.0 due to the weather." Next news cycle "Whoopsie, it was actually %2.9!"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/us-usa-economy-growth-idUSKBN0F01CD20140625
I like the weather excuse. Don't they already "seasonally adjust" the numbers. I mean it's not like this is the first time winter has ever happened in the first quarter of a year.
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This is why you should regard any statistic the .gov publishes as completely and totally false. "Oh, it shrank %1.0 due to the weather." Next news cycle "Whoopsie, it was actually %2.9!"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/us-usa-economy-growth-idUSKBN0F01CD20140625
Economic growth statistics get reviewed several times each quarter. This is not per se a sign of deliberate falsification.
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Economic growth statistics get reviewed several times each quarter. This is not per se a sign of deliberate falsification.
When the statistics are always "overly optimistic" and then revised down as quietly as possible I can't help but view that with suspicion.
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You can trust nothing the government says. Nothing. Get used to it.