Post by: Ben on February 16, 2008, 04:49:18 PM
Yahoo (YHOO). I've had this one through two splits, but bought a bunch in early JAN with the Microsoft merger talk and it paid off nicely a couple of weeks ago.
SIRIUS (SIRI). Bought a whole bunch in early JAN in hopes the merger with XM goes through. I've got an "autosell" setup to sell half my shares if the stock goes up 50% so I don't have to keep checking five times a day to see if the merger was announced.
Silcon Image (SIMG). This company makes connectors for high def cables (DVI, HDMI) and they have the patent for them. My strategy is to keep this stock through the first quarter of 09. With the switch from analog TV, I'm betting lots of people will buy new TVs versus getting converter boxes, and every company that sells hi-def cables has to give SIMG a cut for the patent.
Tidewater (TDW). They provide services and equipment for ocean exploration, primarily for the oil industry. Bought this one mostly from reading recommendations on it, and analyst forecasts that the sector is going to grow a lot this year.
Gushan Environmental (GU). Chines energy company that makes biodiesel. Apparently China is standardizing on diesel for fuel, and their government has mandated a percentage of the diesel be from bio-sources. This relatively new IPO is positioned to take the lead on that. I haven't actually bought it yet. The recommendation was to get in at the $9.50-$10 mark, and by the time I heard, it had jumped up a couple of bucks, so I'm holding to see if the overall market takes another good dip, and will jump in then.
I'm also looking at various US and Chinese solar companies, as I think the industry is poised to grow, especially if a Democratic takes office. I just keep reading good news / bad news for the companies I'm looking at, so I've been afraid to pull the trigger as of yet.
Post by: The Rabbi on February 16, 2008, 05:01:40 PM
Tidewater (TDW). They provide services and equipment for ocean exploration, primarily for the oil industry. Bought this one mostly from reading recommendations on it, and analyst forecasts that the sector is going to grow a lot this year.
Don't quit your day job. You have admirably demonstrated how people lose money investing in stocks.
But let me put in my own anecdotal evidence.
I was driving one Sun (to IDPA) listening to the Motley Fool radio show. The Fool was pushing a company called iRobot, that makes Roomba, Scuba, and other robotic devices. They had the CEO on. He was articulate (but not naked), charming, and made a great case for his company. So I bought some.
The stock proceeded to nosedive. I sold some and held a little just so I would follow it. It has traded in a narrow band of 15-20 for about 18 months.
In analyzing it, I didnt do anything that I normally do with a company. I did not look at the company's financials, their sales records, their debt levels or their competition. I did not consider whether the stock price made that company a good value or a poor value. The greatest company in the world can be way over-valued and a dog can be undervalued.
So merely being in a field that might benefit from some trend isn't enough. The company has to be well-positioned to take advantage of it. If they are saddled by debt, have new uncertain management, have never been in this field before, they won't do very well, even if everything goes their way.
Post by: Ben on February 16, 2008, 05:34:36 PM
Your point is well taken though, which is why I let the folks at Vanguard pick my stocks for me in their blended funds for the money I prefer not to lose. They've done pretty well for me so far.
Post by: K Frame on February 17, 2008, 03:45:52 AM
Right now I'm pumping a bunch of money into financial stocks. My big target is Citigroup. They've been hit hard by all of the turmoil lately, and had pretty decent exposure to the subprime mess.
Right now they're trading near the bottom of their 52 week range, which is about half of their high value during the same period.
They're simply too big, too diverse, and too well capitalized to stay down there for very long. If you're willing to sink some money into them and let it ride for at least 2 to 3 years, I think you'll be able to double it.
Post by: The Rabbi on February 17, 2008, 04:17:58 AM
Post by: 280plus on February 17, 2008, 05:35:16 AM
Post by: K Frame on February 17, 2008, 05:42:45 AM
Post by: Werewolf on February 17, 2008, 06:10:22 AM
If you're a real day trader - meaning in and out of a position in the same day and you sit at your PC watching the charts in real time - you may want to look at QQQ. That's the derivative instrument that tracks the NASDAQ 100. It is heavily traded by day traders.
It's traded on the American Stock Exchange and because it is a derivative instrument you can take a short position without the annoying uptick rule that stocks are subject to.
NOTE: QQQ is not a good vehicle for programmed trading and unless you can sit at your PC and watch the charts I don't recommend it. If you can't buy enough shares to make $200 or so on a price change of a nickel or a dime then it isn't for you either. QQQ can start acting funny if the market is in a long run up or down. One other thing is that in the short term (3 day or less) there seems to be a moderately negative correlation between the DOW and QQQ. If the DOW is up QQQ will be down. In the long run that correlation disappears.
That said:
I made my living for almost a year (2000-2001) trading primarily in that one instrument. Usually done by 11AM or so every morning. I'd still be doing it if the wife hadn't got hurt.
The deal with QQQ is it has a fairly regular pattern (except when it doesn't
). In general it goes up in the morning when the day traders are buying in. The day traders start closing their positions in it around 1030 or so (east coasters gettin' ready for lunch I always figured). Then it starts going down.I'd get in first thing when the market opened and get out once I made my $200 a day goal (which I didn't always do). If the 1030 downturn looked promising I'd occassionaly take a short position until just before noon when I'd close it out.
On a really good day I'd make 3 or 4 hundred bucks. My rules were ride it up 'till I hit $200 in the black. Then if it kept going up I'd put in a stop loss for the price that made me the $200 and ride it up 'till it started coming down and then sell. Most days $200 was where I got out.
My other rule was that once my position was $100 in the red - close it - done for the day.
Real day trading can be very nerve racking. There were times when I'd be in and out of a position in less than a minute and others where I'd ride it out till the end of the day though those are extreme examples. Except in rare instances all positions are closed at the end of the day.
I miss those days - mostly.
Post by: K Frame on February 17, 2008, 06:18:23 AM
Three or so months later he was back at his desk, about $30,000 and one wife poorer.
Post by: Werewolf on February 17, 2008, 07:10:27 AM
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Three or so months later he was back at his desk, about $30,000 and one wife poorer.
It takes that long to unlearn all the stuff you tried to learn from books or that they taught you in college.I've been an active trader since 1995 and the main lesson I learned right off the bat is the academics don't know squat about the short term. With the exception of Black-Scholes (options pricing model) most stock pricing models don't work. What should be good isn't and what shouldn't be good is. The stock market is all about psychology and perception. A dog stock can sky rocket and the stock of a solid company that'll be around in a 100 years can tank. You can't buck the trends and you shouldn't even try. Successful short term traders learn to anticipate and to recognize the perception and hop on the bandwagon and then back off before the rubes figure out they bought a pig in a poke.
Academic models do work to an extent - if you're one of those in it for the long run (10+ years). Other than that - it's all about perception.
Post by: wooderson on February 17, 2008, 10:06:51 AM
Post by: French G. on February 17, 2008, 02:24:42 PM
Speculative play money I am even money for 5 years I've been doing it. If I had any free money I'd buy financial stocks also right now, maybe homebuilders later this year. I've given up on diversification, I can only learn about so many markets. I end up watching oil and other stuff that comes from the ground a lot. Not trying to catch these current prices, doing what I'm not supposed to do and buying a story, as in companies that haven't turned a buck yet. It's easier than driving to Atlantic City to play poker.
EGO They have dibs on lots of gold in the ground. I bought them the day after they fell off over 25% over turkish legal trouble. I expect their one mine will re-open but I'm holding them regardless for their other prospects. If they drop again I'll buy them, I'm still up 18-20%.
BQI Once they start getting production on their oil sands leases I could be fat. I need to buy more.
IVAN Again, heavy oil, if they get a commercial upgrading facility going I'll be happy. I'm willing to sit on this for a long time. Lots of debt but they find buyers quickly whenever they renegotiate their bond terms.
SWAT. Purely speculative, I bought them the day after they had a big crash. If they get their new products out in the law enforcement market they may recover nicely. Or they may run out of money.
Now if any of them hit big the plan is sell at least enough to recover my original money, invest half of that in a big dividend paying company and return the rest to speculation. I'll keep some of the original holding most likely.
Post by: Ben on February 17, 2008, 02:28:33 PM
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My real retirement money is in federal TSP which to some degree lets you play time the market with no commission charges.
I work TSP the same way. I really like the way they set TSP up -- that's one program the .gov got right.
Post by: Ben on February 17, 2008, 02:32:23 PM
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Ameritrade, Etrade, Fidelity, Zecco, other?
I use Ameritrade for the play stuff, mostly because when I last did it years ago I was with Datek, and Ameritrade bought them out. Just stayed with them and haven't had any problems as of yet. I use Vanguard for all the "serious" stuff.
Post by: K Frame on February 17, 2008, 02:48:08 PM
Post by: thebaldguy on February 17, 2008, 02:55:27 PM
Think about day trading like gambling at a casino or racetrack; only play with money you can afford to lose.
Post by: HankB on February 18, 2008, 04:17:35 AM
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Start with a large fortune.
Post by: Werewolf on February 18, 2008, 04:45:47 AM
Here's a secret on how to make a small fortune in stocks:
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Start with a large fortune.
BS....
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Start with a large fortune.
You can throw 10 darts at the NY Times stock section. Buy a 100 shares of each stock hit, hold 'em for 10 or more years and the odds are way way in your favor that at the end of that ten years you'll be ahead.
Post by: Firethorn on February 18, 2008, 07:02:29 AM
You can throw 10 darts at the NY Times stock section. Buy a 100 shares of each stock hit, hold 'em for 10 or more years and the odds are way way in your favor that at the end of that ten years you'll be ahead.
Sounds like an interesting mutual fund idea...
Post by: K Frame on February 18, 2008, 07:40:29 AM
Only I think the fund manager was tossing darts at a copy of Hustler...
Post by: wooderson on February 18, 2008, 09:48:39 AM
Post by: GigaBuist on February 18, 2008, 05:25:43 PM
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Successful short term traders learn to anticipate and to recognize the perception and hop on the bandwagon and then back off before the rubes figure out they bought a pig in a poke.
Bingo. I gave it a go in 2005 and my buddy and I'd pick a few stocks that were swinging around and set up Google News Alerts on them. Buy when they were low, wait for news to hit, sell when they picked up. Repeat a couple of times. It was fun and I made about 10% profit on it.
It's a fun form of gambling.
Post by: JohnBT on February 18, 2008, 05:49:19 PM
And they don't have any large or even medium holdings. A hundred of this, a few of that, some cash, warrants, bonds, etc. It's a chore just working my way through the three envelopes. The report comes in 3 mailers and the sheets are printed on both sides.
Everytime I look at it all my head hurts and I feel really dumb. I'll just keep plugging away with my own little investments and be thankful the trust is paying for my mother's nursing/Alzheimers care to the tune of $7k a month. And there's no reportable income involved.
I wondered why they were sitting on almost $300k in cash, now I know - so they don't have to sell anything they don't want to.I think it was one of the DuPont boys who founded Wilmington Trust, so they have a lot more experience making money than I do. Bless 'em.
John
Post by: Finch on February 18, 2008, 10:05:50 PM
Post by: CAnnoneer on February 19, 2008, 05:02:21 AM
If you are interested in trading but don't have the day-trader personality, target larger time-scales, e.g. weeks or months. Also, if you are open to more than "buy-and-hold", look into options trading - the risks are generally bigger, but the potential rewards are scandalous.
Post by: Manedwolf on February 19, 2008, 05:55:31 AM
iRobot makes the PackBot much loved by troops. Military contracts = $$$$, and they're going to likely scale up production in that area. If they don't fail due to bad decisions, it would seem like a good long-term.
As for other things, my CGM mutual funds have done quite well, and my palladium maple leaves just busted $500. Go go go!
Post by: Werewolf on February 19, 2008, 05:07:28 PM
Also, if you are open to more than "buy-and-hold", look into options trading - the risks are generally bigger, but the potential rewards are scandalous.
Sorry man but that's really bad advice. Good advice 20 years ago but not now.The every day average guy can't compete with the big boys, their Black-Scholes real time pricing models and programmed trading. Those boys do arbitrage and trade on 1/10 th of a cent out of balance prices a 100,000,000 bucks at a time.
Options trading truly is gambling and shouldn't be done by regular folks. I suppose if you're willing to take all your money, toss it into a garbage can, add gasoline and a match and truly enjoy the blaze then options might be ok.
But not in these days - nope - not these days.
Commodities trading thru futures though is something a regular guy can get into and make big bucks if you do all your homework before opening a position.
Post by: CAnnoneer on February 19, 2008, 08:31:36 PM
Sorry man but that's really bad advice. Good advice 20 years ago but not now.
The every day average guy can't compete with the big boys, their Black-Scholes real time pricing models and programmed trading. Those boys do arbitrage and trade on 1/10 th of a cent out of balance prices a 100,000,000 bucks at a time.
Options trading truly is gambling and shouldn't be done by regular folks.
The every day average guy can't compete with the big boys, their Black-Scholes real time pricing models and programmed trading. Those boys do arbitrage and trade on 1/10 th of a cent out of balance prices a 100,000,000 bucks at a time.
Options trading truly is gambling and shouldn't be done by regular folks.
That has not been my experience, and I trade options for profit. Then again, I am not a day-trader. You may be right in the case of day-trading with options, but things are certainly very different for traders working with larger timescales, e.g. a month inside a good position.
Check out Optionetics and the related technical analysis software packages, most importantly ProfitSource. It is more difficult than trading stocks and there are many more ways to get horribly burnt, but if you do it right, you make good money. Also, you don't need to be one of the big boys either. Options have inherent leverage, which means far greater ROI than stock, so you can build a fortune from a very small starting account.
Post by: K Frame on February 20, 2008, 02:51:43 AM
I've also had runs where I got spanked hard.
I decided to stick with mutual funds for the long haul.
Post by: Ben on May 30, 2008, 06:01:07 AM
Not that I'm still not doing these individual stocks only for fun versus long term investment, but they turned out to be pretty good picks after all:
Gushan Environmental - Bought at $8.66, currently 13.90. A couple of little dips, but steady riser overall, and poised to go much higher I think.
Silicon Image - Bought at $4.03, currently $7.00. This one seems to be really following analysts predictions. A slow steady rise since I bought it. Still hoping for a surge after this Christmas and the switch to digital TV.
Sirius - Bought at $2.98, currently $2.56. My only stinker. I did buy this on the highly speculative theory that the merger with XM would go through. Hasn't happened yet.
Tidewater -- Ended up getting too scared by what's going on with oil to pull the trigger on this one.
Yahoo -- Sold half, kept half, which worked out okay given the current status of the Microsoft buyout (or lack thereof).
Post by: K Frame on May 30, 2008, 06:17:15 AM
I bought several hundred shares of Citigroup at $20 and change a few weeks ago. It's going to take them some time to recover from the mortgage issue, but I have no doubt that within the next two years they'll have recovered nicely and I'll have a nice profit.
Post by: WayneConrad on May 30, 2008, 02:09:08 PM
There are two ways to do stocks. Speculating, otherwise known as "gambling," and investing, otherwise known as "investing." Speculating is guessing what's going to go up or down, and buying (or selling, or shorting, or whatever). Investing is not worrying about what's going to go up or down, but buying for the long term, figuring that over the long term, everything's going to go up, and buying what's most likely to capture that long term trend well.
To invest, buy only stocks in companies that, among other things, are:
- Profitable
- Carry no debt
- Have as broad a market as possible (worldwide vs. Seattle)
- Are used by as many people as possible (toilet paper vs. left-handed scissors)
You then leave it alone. Don't sit by the virtual ticker and watch it go up and down. That is what speculators do. If you need that kind of excitement, go to Vegas.
Once you've found a good investment stock, find out if they have a DRIP. It's a nifty way for you to buy the stock on the cheap directly from the company, sometimes at a very low cost (as in, way lower than the usual brokerage fees), and in smaller quantities than you might have to if you were buying in the usual way. Great for us small guys.
Post by: 280plus on May 30, 2008, 02:18:27 PM