Post by: MicroBalrog on July 25, 2008, 05:30:00 AM
(IsraelNN.com) Western diplomats and nuclear inspectors who frequently travel to Tehran as part of the international effort against Iran's uranium enrichment activities say that "a sense of paranoia appears to have gripped the regime in recent months," the Daily Telegraph reported Friday.
There has certainly been a change of mood since the start of the year, a Vienna-based official told the paper's correspondent this week. In the past they always appeared very self-confident and sure-footed in their dealings with foreign officials. Now they come across as very suspicious, and watch our every move.
The report says that Tehrans suspiciousness may explained by the fact that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other officials realize that "they are running out of time in their negotiations with the West."
Micro Sez:
It's afraid!
It's afraid!
Post by: roo_ster on July 27, 2008, 09:03:32 AM
The only question is whose back will get the knife this time.
Post by: French G. on July 28, 2008, 04:09:18 PM
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on July 28, 2008, 04:14:05 PM
What are they afraid of? Popular revolution? Coup? Inspectors finding their nukes? Loss of prestige and influence from their defeat in Iraq? Tightened sanctions?
Post by: AJ Dual on July 28, 2008, 04:22:05 PM
Who are they afraid of? Their own people? Their military? Their own religious extremists? Foreigners? Weapons inspectors? A rehabilitated Britney Spears?
What are they afraid of? Popular revolution? Coup? Inspectors finding their nukes? Loss of prestige and influence from their defeat in Iraq? Tightened sanctions?
What are they afraid of? Popular revolution? Coup? Inspectors finding their nukes? Loss of prestige and influence from their defeat in Iraq? Tightened sanctions?
All of the above. All their nuclear brinkmanship so far has mainly been to create a constant state of external crisis to maintain better control of their own people. Many of whom wish for the more secular days of the Shah.
The second reason for the nuclear program is as a MAD/deterrence immunity card so they can continue assymetric proxy-war against the USA and Israel through Lebanon, which really just routes right back into the first reason again...
Post by: RevDisk on July 28, 2008, 04:56:04 PM
My guess would be they're worried about invasion. Can't say I exactly blame them.
Also, what jfuser said.
Post by: Bigjake on July 28, 2008, 05:28:38 PM
Post by: RevDisk on July 28, 2008, 07:04:51 PM
They keep threatening the Izzies and they oughta be afraid of American precision weapons on Israeli planes, or worse.
That would be very bad for all parties involved. We don't want Iran openly supplying *expletive deleted*it militias. They slip them more than enough material at the moment. But if they opened the logistic pipeline, things could get touchy.
Post by: French G. on July 29, 2008, 03:05:35 PM
Looks like a reasonable and peaceful government. I say we trust them and sit down for unilateral talks.
Post by: Bigjake on July 29, 2008, 05:22:08 PM
That would be very bad for all parties involved. We don't want Iran openly supplying *expletive deleted*it militias. They slip them more than enough material at the moment. But if they opened the logistic pipeline, things could get touchy.
I guess I'm not convinced they aren't pretty much doing that already, and we're just turning a blind eye to it. I have nothing to back that up of course, it's just my thoughts on the subject.
Post by: RevDisk on July 30, 2008, 11:43:26 AM
That would be very bad for all parties involved. We don't want Iran openly supplying *expletive deleted*it militias. They slip them more than enough material at the moment. But if they opened the logistic pipeline, things could get touchy.
I guess I'm not convinced they aren't pretty much doing that already, and we're just turning a blind eye to it. I have nothing to back that up of course, it's just my thoughts on the subject.
Oh, Iran is supplying the Shiites with arms and more importantly, technical expertise. You might have noticed occassional sudden bursts of sophistication in the IED's in the *expletive deleted*it areas. Shaped charge IED's are getting old hat. Explosively formed penetrators (EFP's) are the interesting development.
We're not exactly turning a blind eye to it as much as there's not much we can effectively do about it. We can run interdiction to cut down on the amount of supplies, but we can't stop it short of invasion. For ethnic solidarity reasons, Iran is almost obligated to supply the *expletive deleted*it militias to some extent. To not do so would be rather baffling. But there's a difference between slipping SOME supplies as a face gesture and opening the floodgates. Iran domestically manufactures RPG-29's in large numbers. Imagine if they slipped hundreds or thousands across the border instead of a few dozen.
Iran is probably gauging a lot of its actions on a long term goal of incorporating *expletive deleted*it Iraqi territory into Iran proper. If we were smarter, we'd be building the infrastructure of the Kurds at a much higher rate and arming/training the Kurdish militias like no tomorrow. Specifically, teaching them to run a guerilla war against Iran if required.