Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Jamisjockey on November 06, 2008, 07:47:50 AM
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,139.27
Trade Time: Nov 5
Change: Down 486.01 (5.05%)
Says it all in my book.
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Not quite. There was also news of a big layoff at one of the financial firms yesterday. Lately, a 400+ point swing is not abnormal. I'd like to blame it on Barry, but I don't think it's quite legitimate to do so.
I heard it in passing while the TV was on in the background yesterday. I can't find it online anywhere. Even without the layoffs, it's still not that abnormal of a swing.
Chris
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The market always reacts the day after an election. If the market was positive about him I'd expect to have seen a lighter gain or lighter sell off than that despite other news.
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I'm not saying the dip isn't partially related to him, but given recent events in the market, it's going to be hard to pin the entire dip on him. Hell, given the news I heard yesterday and the entirety of the market's problems lately, his actual effect might have been positive, just not enough to offset a larger loss. I'm simply not comfortable blaming the loss on him, nor am I comfortable blaming anything negative on him unless there is a verifiable connection.
Chris
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No, it doesn't say anything in my book.
If you haven't noticed lately, the markets have been strongly up AND down for the last several weeks, often on the most innocuous news.
Yesterday's news and sales and earnings was bad, leading to the drop. More evidence of a looming, long-term recession. I'd say the election had nothing to do with it.
I do know that my coworker, the ex-pat Brit who was shocked that the market wasn't rising on this "wonderous news of Obama's victory" was walking around like a stunned cow yesterday after the markets closed.
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The market always reacts the day after an election. If the market was positive about him I'd expect to have seen a lighter gain or lighter sell off than that despite other news.
The market was up over 300 on election day itself. It was down strongly the next day.
Go back a month or two and you'll see that that has become a routine trend.
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The market is going up and down in hundred(s) point increments because most of the big money is off to the side, thus relatively small things have an inordinantly large effect on the Dow Index.
This will continue for some time.
Some of the reaction in the Dow has been due to the anticipation of an Obama presidency, but not all. As has been pointed out, some layoffs were announced the other day, and that's having its effect.
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Good luck in trying to impart a logic to "The Market". Where we once had what Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance", we now have irrationally oversold stocks. It is absurd to have stock prices deflated to the point that higher dividend percentages edge toward 10% (see Pfizer). That might price in a dividend cut, but it really is a self fulfilling prophecy.
My advisor always corrects me when I refer to investing as gambling, but if it is not a sure thing even in the wisest of hands, it's gambling. One should not gamble with money he cannot afford to lose.
Having said that, I don't see that any long term market move can be attributed directly to a President. They like to take some credit for prosperity and offer a defense against criticism during or after a decline.
I noted that W and Obama both inherited an economy under stress and primed for a recovery.
What we don't have in this recession is the option to start a war and create an economic boom. We are kind of tapped out on war making resolve and resources.
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Welcome to day 2 of the market post-obama. If Friday turns out to be more of the same then perhaps you are onto something.
Of course, the decline from last Oct(dow 14,000) through last week may have been an entirely different matter.
Good Luck.
Dave
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The market priced in an Obama win months ago.
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I took out all my money last winter. I'm a risk-averse guy, which may explain, in part, why I never leave the house without a gun.