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Ok, I admit it- probably due to my New England wasp upbringing (no, not Boston wasp, my ancesters were whalers, fishermen and Indian Fighters), I am a pessimist. I cannot see how we humans can go on doing as we are. We are trashing our planet, overpopulating it, and acting like OIL will never run out. The single most astonishing graph I have ever seen was one showing oil use, and expected depletion- basicly a spike from 1850. to 2050. Unparalleld in human history. Oil has no equal in energy density. It is essential in all other fields of endeavor. We cannot make steel, copper, plastic, food , other fuels, or anything else on the scale that we need them, without OIL. There is no other known source for aircraft fuel. It takes more OIL energy to make hydrogen and bio-diesel than we get out it is a net energy loss. Are we doomed to decend back to a pre-industrial exsistance? I am reading J.Diamonds book, "Collapse", and the parallels with the modern world are frightening.
Anybody eles been pondering this?
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The economy will convert from oil to other fuels. This will be driven by price increases in oil plus technological advances. I doubt that it will be more catastrophic than the conversion from coal to oil.
- NF
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I think a lot of our needs will be met by reverting to coal as a feedstock for oil production. South Africa has been doing this since the 1950's, and the Germans were doing it before WW2. It's a lot less energy-efficient to convert coal to oil, and then convert the oil to feedstocks for chemicals, plastics, etc., but there are new and more efficient processes in the pipeline, and I suspect that within the next 50 years, coal will provide the bulk of these materials as we run out of oil. We have enough coal in the ground for several hundred years' use.
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In the future as in the past, we'll make do. We'll never really solve problems; we'll just muddle through.
I'd guess there will be less air travel, due to rising costs to try to create some amount of profitability. I think people will start moving toward some sort of "strip city" where public transportation can be functional. The costs of personal transportatioon will push more people toward inner-city locations or even, possibly, "company towns" as in the past.
Desperation for electricity will probably get us into nukes, like a lot of the rest of the world.
And tons of other stuff, of course...
Art
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Im sure there was a time when people were in caves lamenting the limited supply of suitably jagged bits of flint. We'll figure out a better way around oil eventually. The world may be a hugely different place afterwards, but it will go on.
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Look at it this way. If we don't go on, we die.
Doubt I'll see this in my lifetime, so no need for me to worry.
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Here's what puzzles me about Leftists. They continue to criticize a thing, but stultify the solution to the problem they whine about by opposing solutions to problems they express.
Take energy, for instance.
Everybody is wrong about that, by the way. We do not need to conserve anything. Especially energy. We need to consume. Consumption gives birth to inovation. Check your history. Everything gives way, even fossil fuel. There are options that are progress not regression. Conspicuous consumption is good, because it creates needs, especially in a free society and for the proper reason: Man's destiny is to play. Play is good and if it is trouble free, excrutiatingly fun as well. Man needs to play.
So, figure a way to meet that expectation for the Baby Boomers, you can order your Caddy SUV; the big one.
Well, what are you waiting for. We all need to go by a Hemi and damn the consequences. (They'll be really, really fun)
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Malthus was wrong.
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Exactly. Your statement should be ended by a ? (question mark) not a . (period) If you had done so, the answer woulb be the same.
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When the easy oil runs out, someone will figure out an economic way to convert the plastics in the landfills back into oil. They're already doing it-just not cheaply. Does anyone remember from last year the guy who figured out how to "make" oil from organic wastes; he used turkey guts, believe it or not. Ended up with a light oil.
We'll muddle through.
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It ain't about oil at all! Or the by-product of... The winner is Inovation! Ding Ding Ding.
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Nuclear energy can provide all the electricity we need for a very long time (at the very very very least several thousand years). Said electricty can be used to synthesize methane (from a CO2 source) which can be used as either a feedstock for all sorts of plastics and other important petrochemical processes (including methanol production), and could be used as the energy storage medium to power our cars. This is much more likely than any sort of H2 (hydrogen) use.
I'm unsure of whether we'll end up with LNG as our fuel or methanol, but I'm very confident that it will be one of those two from the process I just decribed.
For further information and argument about human progress I highly recommend this site:
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html
Alot of reading there but good information backed up with NUMBERS and SOURCES.
Drew
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What I find interesting is that when similar posts have come up on a couple of sci-fi boards I frequent, the response is almost 100 percent negative. End of the world, famine, floods, locusts, sky falling, etc. is the general consensus. You'd think that a sci-fi oriented community would be a bit more optimistic.
FWIW, I think that when oil gets expensive enough we'll move on to something else. It won't be a particular problem.
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I'm looking forward to when we can regularly and cheaply rocket toxic / nuclear waste into the sun.
Why? That stuff is still useful, recyclable if we ever get over our reservations on using it.
My policy is that I love research.
Efficiency: Reducing my electric/heating bill is always nice.
Recycling: Solves two problems at once. You get supply from waste. See Efficiency
Cleanness: I like clean air and water.
Power Generation: Let's make power cheaper, greener, etc...
We'd be alot further along if we didn't have so many reactionaries. I'm fully confident that our economy will adjust. For example, Kyoto wouldn't be nearly such a big deal if we got ten times as much power from nuclear reactors.
Here's what puzzles me about Leftists. They continue to criticize a thing, but stultify the solution to the problem they whine about by opposing solutions to problems they express.
They're never happy, are they?
Take energy, for instance.
Everybody is wrong about that, by the way. We do not need to conserve anything. Especially energy. We need to consume. Consumption gives birth to inovation. Check your history. Everything gives way, even fossil fuel. There are options that are progress not regression. Conspicuous consumption is good, because it creates needs, especially in a free society and for the proper reason: Man's destiny is to play. Play is good and if it is trouble free, excrutiatingly fun as well. Man needs to play.
So, figure a way to meet that expectation for the Baby Boomers, you can order your Caddy SUV; the big one.
Well, what are you waiting for. We all need to go by a Hemi and damn the consequences. (They'll be really, really fun)
Well excuse me, but I'll keep supporting increased efficiency. If nothing else, it helps your Semi-SUV extend it's range and have more cargo space where the extra gas tanks would otherwise go.
Of course, I support being able to do more on our nice cheap electricity.
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Some say man's future involves Singularity--
http://yudkowsky.net/tmol-faq/tmol-faq.html
The Bible Code (which is, strangely, in agreement with the Mayan calendar) seems to indicate the strong possibility of a catastrophic collision with a large asteroid on December 21, 2012.
I'm going to live today as if it's my last; that way, I won't be disappointed when it happens.
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Malthus was wrong.
Only about the constants. Unless humanity gets control of its own greed, it's going to run up against physical limits someday.
- NF
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I'm really worried about the shortages of whale oil and buggy whips. I can't seem to find them anywhere and am concerned about the future of civilization. How can I drive my carriage about town without a buggy whip?
The answer lies in letting go and letting the creative energy of the productive people pull us through. My local paper featured a club of guys who power their vehicles with french fry soybean oil, something like the Wabash Valley for Renewable Power. I'm certain there are individuals like this all over the nation.
In some garage in some state, there is a guy in dirty blue jeans, staying up late, sipping coffee and trying to perfect his car that runs on water. Leave him be and get out of his way.
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Nat,
I subscribe to increased efficiency as well. But when it is coupled with innovation it makes the efficient thing even more desireable. Fossil fuels will go away. The sooner they do, the sooner we'll have innovation. We should be building nuclear powerplants everywhere.
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Grampster, my point was that the source of energy doesn't matter. Ever read an essay called "Fecundity Limited" by Isaac Asimov? Even if humanity has unlimited energy, we will hit a hard resource limit in only a few thousand years -- the available matter in the Universe.
BTW, for some interesting reading, Google for "sonofusion."
- NF
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We'll die out sooner or later.
My guess is sooner rather than later.
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OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GONNA' DIE!!!!!
Actually I agree with the the majority here. Nuclear power will become so common that it will drive the cost of oil down. We may run out of something, but we can still advance as a society instead of becoming cave men, oops I mean cave persons, again.
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"OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GONNA' DIE!!!!!"
Saw a bumper sticker years ago.
"Life. It's a Death Sentence"
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Don't you guys know? Someone already invented automobile engines that use water as fuel ... Only President Bush and VP Cheney have the inventor locked up in Guatenamo Bay and the NSA and CIA have possession of the formula, which will never, ever be used because the administration is being paid off by the oil companies and an alliance of the Big 3, the Japanese/Korean and European automakers ...
Eh, as Grampster and a couple other noted ... we'll adapt, overcome and survive. Just look at how technology has developed in the past twenty years alone ... the past forty years ... and our scientists and our society is on the verge of some really, really amazing technological advances that will ensure the survival of our species and our planet for another few thousand years ... And when our planet does eventually perish into nothing, it'll have been a good run ...
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Grampster, my point was that the source of energy doesn't matter. Ever read an essay called "Fecundity Limited" by Isaac Asimov? Even if humanity has unlimited energy, we will hit a hard resource limit in only a few thousand years -- the available matter in the Universe.
I haven't read "Fecundity Limited", but if his thesis was that we'll breed until there's no resources left, then I disagree. If anything, the recent history of the West has shown that once a society becomes affluent the birth rate falls to below replacement levels.
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In terms of geologic time, we're hardly a blip on the radar. And as long as we continue to adapt, we'll survive. That said, we're probably overdue for some catastrophic event anyway. Look at our vulnerabilities-biological (germs, bacteria, viruses, etc.) -geologic (earthquakes, tectonic plate movements, polar shifts, etc.,) -cosmic (asteroids, alien invasion possibilities). Ther are others we can't even think of.
Don't worry. Be happy. Save for your old age.
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I remember as a child talking to my great-grandfather, who was born in 1898. He used to talk about the greatness of mankind, looking at the progress that had been made in his lifetime. He was born into a time when travel was still predominately horse, train, and boat. He watched as cars not only became available, but essential. He saw the invention of the aircraft, built them during WWI for the Navy, and watched as the ranges increased, jet engines were developed, and space travel became a reality. The adding machine on his desk he used to run his contracting business became smaller and electric, then smaller still. Telephones in every household, without an operator. Large radios became smaller transistor radios, and huge televisions with tiny black-and-white screens became smaller consoles with bigger screens, and actually had color. I can't help but to think how he'd be absolutely blown away if he could just see what I wear on my belt every day, the cell phone, the data organizer, the plastic gun in the plastic holster.
And, while it may be less obvious to us, stop and look at the developments in the last few years. My wife and I got a P.C. for our home back in 1998. It was amazing, with 8 gigs of hard drive space, and we knew we'd never fill it up, but it was nice to have. We marveled at how fast our dial-up internet service was. We hoped to save up money for a digital camera. Here we are seven years later. Our current home P.C. has 80 gigs of hard drive space, the wife's work laptop a mere 20 gigs. I have a thumb drive in my pocket with 512 megs of space, which replaced the 3.5 inch discs I used to use to haul 1.4 megs of data back and forth from home to work. Our dial-up service drives us crazy, because we're both used to T-1 internet access at work. And, we turned down free digital cameras with credit card offers and such on a frequent basis. Think of the batteries. Back in 1194, when I started work, I kept a Mini-Mag light in my briefcase for use at crime scenes. Now, I've got an even brighter LED on my keychain I use instead. Mankind is experiancing technological leaps all around us, and we barely notice what's going on.
The future of mankind depends on a few things, though.
1. Interspace travel. We need to get off of this rock and see what else is out there. Forget Star Trek, aliens and such. I mean resources, materials for use in manufacture and possibly even hospitable environmenst in which to work/live.
2. Medicine. Yes, humans are living far longer than ever before in history. However, things like AIDS, the Avian Flu, SARs, and unknown Ebola type viruses have the potential to bring humankind to its knees if a pandemeic incident were to occur.
3. Peace. I know that war has spurred on great leaps in technology, but unless resources are devoted to peaceful developments, these leaps in technology will be stalled, if not outright killed by the need for better weapons. Another full World War could set progress back greatly.
4. Freedom. Government funding may have helped many advances, but government controll hasn't. It's the free man (or woman) working in freedom, without concerns of goals, deadlines, and such that make the greatest discoveries. And that only happens in a free world.
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animals usually get a mass extiction every 100,000 years or so. but, seeing as how we're destroying our planet, maybe we've got 10K years, then there'll be a planet with giant rusting machines and buildings collapsing, with everything dead save for some hardy trees, plants, bacteria...
~TMM
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As previously mentioned, oil can be manufactured from almost any organic garbage. It just isn't terribly cost effective right now.
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Humanity will continue as it always has. We will adapt and overcome. Doom and gloom has been preached and taught since humans evolved into self-aware beings. Yet somehow or another we manage to continue.
By the time this planet is near the point of being used up we will have colonized others to make up for it.
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So to recap the bulk of the comments- "don't worry, we'll figure something out". Hmmm...... those have been famous last words more times than I can count. I'd probably be happier if I was an uncurable optimist but somehow that gene got erased. Maybe by reading too much history. I don't really think the "end of the world" is comeing, just wondering what the restructured society will look like. I really do not think in 20 years we will be living just like today except for the hydrogen powered cars we will all be driving.
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Asimov wrote another good book, "A Choice of Catastrophes" Very interesting. He covers pretty much all the bases for how we'll maybe go, including the problems if we don't. Then there's Dixie Lee Ray's book (I've mentioned before) "Trashing the Planet" in which that fine lady debunks most of the ecowhackjob mythology regarding how we are destroying the planet.
Tokugawa,
Try being a pessimist like me. It's really great because one is continually being proved right or pleasantly surprised.
The best we can all do is live for today. Contribute what you can, when you can. Encourage those who have a talent, to exploit it. Wake up each day expecting to be surprised. Take a Leftist to lunch. (just kiddin)
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Malthus was wrong.
This should be tagged on the wall of a campus building at every university in the nation.
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In the course of my lifetime, I fully expect to see a biotech revolution that will be just as concept-shattering as the agricultural, industrial, and computer revolutions combined.
Unless luddite biotech bigots get their way, the Transhuman revolution will have the ability to change humanity in ways unimaginable to us today. Custom-made disease cures, better, heartier foods, longer life spans, etc.
Certainly there will be problems and controversy; the current flap over embryonic stem cells is a perfect example, but in the end, as with any such revolution, the good will far outweigh the bad.
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If you take time to read up on peak oil theories, take similar amounts of time to read up on adiabatic oil. Google out why it is oil reserves in different areas of the world are refilling. Theory A> deep reserves are refilling shallow pools, or Theory B> oil is not the product of grass clippings, dead possums, heat and time (grandly simplified description). It is instead produced by some yet unknown geological process deep in the earth's structure. Investigate oil source operating theories of the west and contast those with Russia's operating theories. Try to find out why it is key Arab oil suppliers are looking to Russia for answers and toward the west. In short, don't assume peak oil is a lead pipe cinch.
Also spend a little time reading teaching primers written by key free market economists. Walter Williams is reputable. Thomas Sowell is more of a philosopher but bleeds over to economics periodically. Economic history is good for the psychie. It shows how many times in the past civilization has pulled up short of the wall and survived just fine. Why, even in my short life I can cite clear examples of technology shift and how corporations adapted or failed to adapt. Swiss watch movements and slide rules are instructive of how a technology shift has profound business implications.
I get pessimistic also, but my pessimism is based in my fear that government will bigfoot innovation and suppress economic adaptation.
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Well, I just finished "Collapse". A really good book, well laidout and researched. The basic point is no way are all the burgeoning numbers of people in this world going to be able to achieve and sustain a first world life style, even if we had zero population growth today. We just do not have the resources. This guy hit a lot of points that I have been thinking about for years.
Do not get me wrong, I do appreciate the wonders of the free market. Unfortunately, there is a limit to the planet. I was reading somewhere that some futurists figured humans have one shot at getting off the planet, after a certain amount of time we will have used up the resources it would take to make the jump. It was erily reminiscent of Diamonds story of the easter islanders deforesting thier home so they no longer had the option of building canoes to leave...
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Sounds like you're talking about the Uldovai (sp) Theory.
If humanity only has one shot, then I'll put my money with Richard Branson and Burt Rutan.
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Heh,,,anyone else glued to the Twighlight Zone marathon this weekend?
One of the episodes theorized that the Earth would eventually spiral into the Sun. But at the last minute reverted it to the Earth spiraling AWAY from the Sun.
ME? I figure if nothing else catastrophic happens first the Sun will eventually decay into a Red Giant and the Earth will be consumed in the process.
Oh and global warming? The Earths rotation contains a certain degree of precession which causes it to cycle from cold to warm over the millenia. We're simply on the way up from the last ice age to the peak of the latest warming part of the cycle. IIRC 360* of precession for the Earth is 60,000 years. The last ice age was ~12,000 years ago. We've got ~ 18,000 years of warming left before it starts trending the other way. Something like that anyways. Don't hold me to any exact numbers. So get the sunscreen out...
Or we could just BE spiraling slowly into the Sun...
AW c'mon, this thread needed a little doom and gloom. It was way out of balance.
LOL...
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If it's any consalation, I DO believe the human race will have adapted to all this and by the time the Earth is destroyed we will have moved out into the universe and colonized other planets...
Ahhh, a warm fuzzy ending after all.
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We either figure out how to stop an asteroid strike
or we die
We figure out how to keep the ice walls from returning,
or we reacquaint ourselves with subsistence survival
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Actually, my nightmare is every single inch of cultivatable land being used for subsistance farming, people every where, no clean water, no gas, every tree gone for firewood, a super rich elite harvesting the poor for organs, constant low intensity warfare over resources, etc. I have finally come to the acceptance that a real full fledged pandemic killing about 9/10 of the world population is probably the best thing that could happen the human race. It would buy us time to regroup before we totally use up our resources. How's that for a cheery thought?
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I have finally come to the acceptance that a real full fledged pandemic killing about 9/10 of the world population is probably the best thing that could happen the human race. It would buy us time to regroup before we totally use up our resources.
Hey Tokugawa,
I couldn't help noticing by your word choice that YOU don't plan to succumb to this pandemic.
Do all over-population theorists feel the need to kill off most of the human race (except themselves)?
Just wondering.
matis
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Let's face it. We're all doomed.
Have a nice day!
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Actually, my nightmare is every single inch of cultivatable land being used for subsistance farming, people every where, no clean water, no gas, every tree gone for firewood, a super rich elite harvesting the poor for organs, constant low intensity warfare over resources, etc. I have finally come to the acceptance that a real full fledged pandemic killing about 9/10 of the world population is probably the best thing that could happen the human race. It would buy us time to regroup before we totally use up our resources. How's that for a cheery thought?
Give me a sec while I feather out my mullet, put Oingo Boingo on the stereo, pop the tab on a can of Coke II, and strap on my L.A. Gear sneakers.
Ok.
Now what were you saying? Something about how Weyland Yutani, The Tyrell Corporation, Omni Consumer Products, and Tessier-Ashpool S.A. were going to take over the world?
Seriously. Thanks for the 80's cyberpunk flashback.
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Actually, the "us", was generic, I personally would try to survive a bad pandemic , but do not nessesarily expect to.
So a question for all- has the increase in the population where you live added to your quality of life?
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No.
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The increase in population in my locale has both increased and diminished my quality of life. With more people came more retail establishments, restaurants, etc. At the same time, it has increased my work load (more people = more crime) , yet the powers that be don't recognize that there is a real need for an increase in staff around here, or even pay raises to compensate for teh increased number of hours being worked.
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ok, I'm appearantly the only person who caught this one:
>Back in 1194, when I started work, I kept a Mini-Mag light in my briefcase for use at crime scenes<
Man, I didn't think you were THAT old! Ain't you a bit past retirement?
I honestly think we'll (eventually) adapt...
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Heh, I saw that too. The Mini-Mag was not invented till 1254, so I'm a bit suspicious....
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Hi folks. I'm new. Waitone beat me to it. Read the book "Black Gold Stranglehold" byt Jerome R. Corsi and Craig R. Smith.
Oil is not a fossil fuel, and we're not running out of it.
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Hope, defined:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/emergingtech/index.php?p=129
If not this, some other high-tech answer. The world (galaxy?) will get weird as hell, but that's the best we can hope for.
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[Schwarzenegger voice] "Get your ass to Mars" [/Schwarzenegger voice]
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Before or after he fell of the motorcycle?
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Welcome aboard, IndianaDean.
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Thank you. Nice to be here.