Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: coppertales on December 14, 2009, 10:09:44 AM
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I went shopping for some gold this weekend and got a big surprise, there isn't any. All the gold and silver places I went to did not have any gold, with the exception of a few 1/10th oz coins. I asked when they expect to get any and was told, "when someone sells us some". And, no-one is selling. I had to settle for some silver.
I know you can buy paper gold but I want the cold hard coins in my hot little hands. You can't use paper to trade with when TSHTF....Besides, I can use the silver to kill vampires.....chris3
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Which brings up the question, what are other items of trading value when TSHTF ?
Things on my list are bars of soap, .22 ammo, cheap toilet paper.
Soap I wouldn't have thought of, but I heard a survivor of bad times during a war, or maybe the Depression, talk about how soap was good for trade.
I've bought up some cheap soap and TP, and I now have enough .22 to outlast this administration.
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On a somewhat related note, is there anyone out there who thinks this gold rush is a bubble? Or does it mean that the TEOTWAWKI is near (purposefully being facetious)?
I am not an economics guru, I have an understanding or supply and demand. Are people short selling, like oil last year, or is it something else?
I am thinking of buying commodities as an investment, but am leaning towards Pt, Ag. I think this gold rush is just another bubble that has popped up. What I don't know is what percentage of the gold price is devaluation of currency, and which is short term supply shortage.
Any have any ideas? Only good ones, ;)
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To respond to Silver Bullet's question, in a shtf situation, I think compact nutrition, like GU or Clif bars would be really valuable for both use and trade.
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Which brings up the question, what are other items of trading value when TSHTF ?
Things on my list are bars of soap, .22 ammo, cheap toilet paper.
Soap I wouldn't have thought of, but I heard a survivor of bad times during a war, or maybe the Depression, talk about how soap was good for trade.
I've bought up some cheap soap and TP, and I now have enough .22 to outlast this administration.
One living IN TSHTF disagrees with that idea...
The barter items thing is also pretty strange. I don’t see how it could possibly be a smart idea to buy goods to sell or trade after a crisis, surely not in the quantities suggested by some people. Beats me, are they going to set up a shop in their garages and sell everything? Would you buy food an other supplies from a guy that sells it with no possible way of verifying the conditions under which the food was kept? How much of a profit could you possibly make , comparing to having saved that same amount of money in gold, for example?
I don’t understand it and I don’t know of anyone that made a profit by doing this. Yet, people stock up on TP and many other cheap, easily obtainable items thinking that it will be “worth it’s weight in gold” after the crisis. Newsflash: if it’s cheap and easy to produce, it will keep being that way AFTER tshtf.
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/mistakes-survivalists-make.html
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is there anyone out there who thinks this gold rush is a bubble?
I do. Anytime item X hits "new highs" and is advertised on Fox news every thirty seconds, someone more in the know is looking to unload item X before the bottom falls out.
Buy low, sell high. Buying now is buying high.
Edited to add: Though it may be a better investment than holding on to cash during the great monetary base experiment of 2009
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I do. Anytime item X hits "new highs" and is advertised on Fox news every thirty seconds, someone more in the know is looking to unload item X before the bottom falls out.
Buy low, sell high. Buying now is buying high.
Yep, I think FTA is right about the gold market right now. Rather overpriced based on today's conditions and indications for the future.
HOWEVER (like any good economist, I must have a caveat), if something more happens to collapse the economy, this price could go still higher.
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I think its a bubble, but not a huge one. It'll deflate down a little at some point. Gut feeling based without fact.
Two types of buyers right now I bet. Firtly, panic buyers who watch too much Beck. I suspect most of them will keep their gold for awhile, which will help keep the cost up.
Speculators looking to make some money. When the price gets up again, alot of them will sell. Price will come down some more, Beck will pan gold some more, more panic buyers will buy, price will go back up.
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One living IN TSHTF disagrees with that idea...
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/mistakes-survivalists-make.html
IMHO, if it goes south, we will see it go south like it has in Argentina. Hyperinflation, maybe a currency change. Obviously, buying and keeping gold in the long run is worth it in this scenerio, and having it in your grubby little hands is the best bet. TP and .22lr will only get you so far.
His observations on bugging out to some fortress in the woods are very keen. White, wealthy ranchers in Africa have been targeted for decades in utterly horrific attacks.
Evacuating to the boonies makes sense if the end of all ends happens, and there is no civilization left.
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I think its a bubble, but not a huge one. It'll deflate down a little at some point. Gut feeling based without fact.
Actually, you're gut feeling is hand-in-hand with market history data. Gold is high, and has been, for at least six months. If history holds, and the market continues in it's current recovery mode, gold is likely to drop 20-40% within the next twelve to eighteen months.
Brad
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Actually, you're gut feeling is hand-in-hand with market history data. Gold is high, and has been, for at least six months. If history holds, and the market continues in it's current recovery mode, gold is likely to drop 20-40% within the next twelve to eighteen months.
Brad
Kind of what I was thinking, maybe up to 60-70% devalue so its back somewhere between $300-$400 an ounce.
I just feel this up price in gold over the last few years is one of those "there is a sucker born every minute" scams. A handful of people are getting very rich and a lot more are going to lose out when the price of gold plummets.
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I'd actually really like to buy gold right now, with the intent of sitting on it a very, very long time. Preferably to be buying every month regardless of the price, and accumulating both real gold and paper gold.
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IMHO, if it goes south, we will see it go south like it has in Argentina. Hyperinflation, maybe a currency change. Obviously, buying and keeping gold in the long run is worth it in this scenerio, and having it in your grubby little hands is the best bet. TP and .22lr will only get you so far.
His observations on bugging out to some fortress in the woods are very keen. White, wealthy ranchers in Africa have been targeted for decades in utterly horrific attacks.
Evacuating to the boonies makes sense if the end of all ends happens, and there is no civilization left.
Is buying gold bullion THAT great of an SHTF investment? Didn't the blog about the Argentina collapse essentially say that ALL gold was considered "junk" gold except by banks? At the bank one would exchange for worthless money anyway. Wouldn't people be better off buying lots of junk gold if they primarily concerned with SHTF scenarios?
Continuing down this line of reason, gold bullion/certs should be standard investments, so now is not the time buy.
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I'd actually really like to buy gold right now, with the intent of sitting on it a very, very long time. Preferably to be buying every month regardless of the price, and accumulating both real gold and paper gold.
i know what you're thinking [tinfoil]
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi3.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fy88%2FAtc1man%2Favatars%2Fgoldenbenderavatar.jpg&hash=87255cd5dd7b98094111f7a1c67a9a3f9fd19cd5) >:D [popcorn] you are going to cast your umm ahhh... in gold!!!!! :lol:
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Is buying gold bullion THAT great of an SHTF investment? Didn't the blog about the Argentina collapse essentially say that ALL gold was considered "junk" gold except by banks? At the bank one would exchange for worthless money anyway. Wouldn't people be better off buying lots of junk gold if they primarily concerned with SHTF scenarios?
Continuing down this line of reason, gold bullion/certs should be standard investments, so now is not the time buy.
I hadn't seen anything about gold being junk in that blog post...is that in an another post?
I would expect most any currency to be backed by gold, it's always been the global standard. Someone would have to be willing to convert gold into currency.
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I hadn't seen anything about gold being junk in that blog post...is that in an another post?
I would expect most any currency to be backed by gold, it's always been the global standard. Someone would have to be willing to convert gold into currency.
sorry, typing from phone so I am trying to be concise. The Argentina post awhile back was not the one I read, but I think is the same person. The one I originally read was over at frugalsquirrels. It was quite lengthy, and reccommended investing both gold bullion (for exchange at banks) and junk gold (for dealing with merchants). What he claimed was that individuals would assume that ALL gold was junk, because they didn't want to get scammed.
What I am saying is it would suck to spend 1000 preinflation dollars on one ounce, just to get 1000 postinflation dollars worth of goods at the market.
Diversifying seems to best the best policy, like most things in life.
The advice given in the whole shabang should be followed even when things are doing excellent, IMO.
By definition (almost), doesn't a hyperinflation scenario mean that the gov can't back it's currency with gold since almost no one is on any kind of standard? Isnt that what makes it possible?
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I believe what ferfal was saying is that gold was not a means of exchange, except for small pieces like rings or necklaces. Those you could quickly pawn without losing much value.
Thus, he was saying not to tie your entire wealth up in gold as you will have no means of functioning day to day.
However, you will note he suggests gold is a good store of wealth. He encourages purchase of gold as well as real estate as a means of saving.
He suggests a diverse portfolio that includes hard physical assets that may not have much liquidity, but retain value well (and, in the case of property, may provide an income stream.)
So, to sum up: Gold is a good store of value in a time when currency is uncertain. Gold coins/bullion are not very useful for exchange. Small bits of gold may be useful for exchange/bribery.
So, don't buy gold thinking it's how you're going to survive DURING the crisis. Buy gold as a means of preserving your wealth.
(As an aside, I do not have any gold aside from what's on my wife's hand. AFTER we've purchased our condo, that is one of my plans to build up a decent store of gold as a hedge against inflation/crisis. I will also not be dumping my 401k into gold at any point in the foreseeable future.)
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Just for consideration...
If the SHTF in a mega-world-meltdown way, which would be more valuable - a couple ounces of gold or or the equavalent value worth of food and ammo?
Brad
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A couple of decades ago (back around 1980) when gold peaked in the neighborhood of $850, lots of people expected it to keep rising without interruption.
It didn't. In fact, the price dropped hundreds of dollars per ounce, and stayed there for a good long time.
It's only in the last year or two that they could have "broken even" or even made a profit on their investment . . . but if they sold now, they'd be getting paid in inflated dollars.
How many of those inflated dollars would they have if they'd invested in bonds, CDs, or something else for 27 or 28 years? Almost certainly, more than if they'd bought gold bullion.
I'll say that I DON'T KNOW how gold will behave in the near future . . . but I don't think the people selling it on TV or the radio know, either.
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Just for consideration...
If the SHTF in a mega-world-meltdown way, which would be more valuable - a couple ounces of gold or or the equavalent value worth of food and ammo?
Brad
Yep. And, unless you expect the world to turn into a "Mad Max" or "Road Warrior" type situation, how long will that $2000 worth of food last?
Note, this is not an either/or situation. Once you have enough food to last during the crisis, why buy more food?
Some kind of society will emerge from the crisis. Once the society starts to "work" again (even a high crime, high corruption society), people will be able to purchase food and other goods.
Having 10 years worth of food that perishes in 5 is likely not a good strategy.
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Might want to read that a little more carefully. I said food AND ammo. Food to keep you in the short term, ammo to keep you in food for the long term. As for "buying" more food, in the scenario above there won't be a stable food source to buy from. Also, you are presuming the gold will has some kind of value in a post-SHTF economy. Gold has value in technology and as a bauble. In a truly bad post-SHTF society, technology and vanity will take a back seat to survival. Kinda hard to eat gold, or to buy anything with a lump of metal that may have no value because is possesses no intrinsic usefulness other than looking pretty.
Brad
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Might want to read that a little more carefully. I said food AND ammo. Food to keep you in the short term, ammo to keep you in food for the long term. As for "buying" more food, in the scenario above there won't be a stable food source to buy from. Also, you are presuming the gold will has some kind of value in a post-SHTF economy. Gold has value in technology and as a bauble. In a truly bad post-SHTF society, technology and vanity will take a back seat to survival. Kinda hard to eat gold, or to buy anything with a lump of metal that may have no value because is possesses no intrinsic usefulness other than looking pretty.
Brad
And, again, you expect society to turn into "Mad Max"?
The crisis will not last forever and some kind of society will return. Farmland will not disappear. Food will exist.
As for gold, I think you undervalue it slightly. There's a reason it became a medium of exchange in every society I've ever examined...
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Just for consideration...
If the SHTF in a mega-world-meltdown way, which would be more valuable - a couple ounces of gold or or the equavalent value worth of food and ammo?
Brad
While ammo stores indefintely, food does not. If one were properly prepared, you'd have enough stores to get through until you can get a proper crop up and running. Learning to can and having some of the equipment stored would be an investment. That would be a good way to go, IMHO, whether you lose your job or the entire world financial system collapses and all governments ceased to exist. Being able to feed yourself for free in any situation would be ideal.
On that note, does anyone know how long plant seeds store for?
Really, the most realalistic meltdown is an Argentina style "reset" (or "transformation"), IMHO.
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Again, folks, go back and read the question. It was a what-if, a thought experiment, not a supposition of things to come.
First (and i reiterate) I did not say food or ammo. I said food AND ammo. Food for short term, ammo to get food for long term.
Mak... yes, gold "became a medium of exchange in every society I've ever examined...", but only after the society established a standard of living that allowed for some level of vanity and the luxury of using non-essential goods as a means of exchange. Again, kinda hard to eat gold, and kinda hard to use it to buy anything when all everyone else needs to do is eat, too. In those cases, food, clothing, and shelter, or the means to acquire such, become the most valuable. Only once those basic needs are met can the society afford to place a value on non-essential items.
Oh, sure, people will try as it is human nature to to hoard things we think have value, especially in times of crises. Unfortunately, reality will only allow a certain order to things, beginning with basic survival (i.e. food, clothing, shelter, and a way to get them). Once that is satisfied the society can begin placing an inferred value on non-essential items as a means of barter.
Jamis... IIRC scientist have been able to successfuly germinate several-thousand-year-old seeds found in Egyptian tombs. Vacuum sealed and kept in a cool place, I daresay most seed would be viable darn near indefinitely.
Brad
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Mak... yes, gold "became a medium of exchange in every society I've ever examined...", but only after the society established a standard of living that allowed for vanity and the luxury of using non-essential good as a means of exchange. Again, kinda hard to eat gold, and kinda hard to use it to buy anything when all everyone else needs to do is eat, too. In those cases, food, clothing, and shelter, or the means to acquire such, become the most valuable. Only once those basic needs are met can the society afford to place a value on non-essential items.
Oh, sure, people will try as it is human nature to to hoard things we think have value, especially in times of crises. Unfortunately, reality will only allow a certain order to things, beginning with basic survival (i.e. food, clothing, shelter, and a way to get them). Once that is satisfied the society can begin placing an inferred value on non-essential items as a means of barter.
Correct. In a society where everyone is struggling to survive, anything not directly aiding survival has little value.
As I have said repeatedly, I seriously doubt such a situation would persist long. Society will not entirely collapse into a state of nature. Some individuals will retain wealth. (See Argentina). MANY will be destitute, but you are very unlikely to want to trade with them.
The gold is not a means of living during the crisis, it's a means of storing current wealth through a crisis. Banks will not disappear, neither will the wealthy. Don't simply focus on the collapse, think about "After the Collapse" (to steal from Ferfal.)
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Oh, and for gold:
I think it has its most use in converting wealth to whatever new currency is implemented. You might lose wealth in the transition, you might lose more in a currency transition. Or if the current currency remains in circulation but is printed to the point of extreme devaluation.
Trading real gold for groceries seems like a bad proposition.
But being able to go into a bank and trade gold for currency seems like a winner.
If we're talking mad max world, I don't think gold will have that much value in the short term, either, except for maybe when civilization begins to emerge again. I also don’t thnk that would take very long, 5 years tops, unless some sort of major die off happens (like a super bug/plague). Of course, if you survive some sort of mass die off, what did you lose by storing some gold? You're not going to store thousands of dollars worth of food in its place. Ammo will store indefinitely, as will most of the components used in creating more ammo. Ammo for trade in an end of the world mad max scenario makes sense. But, you can only store so much ammo, too. Several ammo cans of each common caliber, or each caliber you own, will begin to take up alot of space. And, in trade, its only of use to someone who has a gun to begin with. There is enough ammunition stockpiled around the country that stores might take awhile to begin to dwindle. Of course, giving someone ammo who doesn't have it already means they just might decide to use it against you in a bid to take everything you have.
Of course, as a means of self sustenance, hunting is problematic at best. Firstly, as the hordes go forth from the city to the wilderness, animal stocks will be depleted rapidly. After a year or two, when all major stores of food are dried up and people begin starving to death, the animal populations might begin to return. Some species may be regionally hunted to extinction, though. If I were planning for mad max, I'd invest in some animal traps and learn to use them.
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Firstly, as the hordes go forth from the city to the wilderness, animal stocks will be depleted rapidly.
Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while. :O
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(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.buysouthern.org%2F518NS0SKF2L__SS500_.jpg&hash=7d06afb08ad3b041bf4f9c395ac692615be2503a)
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Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while. :O
Wonder how well it can be converted into jerky?
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Supplies of long pig should remain adequate for a while. :O
Yep, just like in The Road...
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On a somewhat related note, is there anyone out there who thinks this gold rush is a bubble? Or does it mean that the TEOTWAWKI is near (purposefully being facetious)?
I am not an economics guru, I have an understanding or supply and demand. Are people short selling, like oil last year, or is it something else?
I am thinking of buying commodities as an investment, but am leaning towards Pt, Ag. I think this gold rush is just another bubble that has popped up. What I don't know is what percentage of the gold price is devaluation of currency, and which is short term supply shortage.
Any have any ideas? Only good ones, ;)
It's a carry trade thing. People are borrowing dollars for free (0%) and using the cash to buy assets they think will appreciate in the short term, stuff like gold, currency in places that still pay interest, bank stocks, oil to some extent, etc.
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Just for consideration...
If the SHTF in a mega-world-meltdown way, which would be more valuable - a couple ounces of gold or or the equavalent value worth of food and ammo?
Brad
If it were me, I'd want medication for my fam, a warm jacket, some sturdy boots, a gun and plenty of spare parts and ammo, and piece of land with a well and a woodstove, and a pile of food.
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As for gold, I think you undervalue it slightly. There's a reason it became a medium of exchange in every society I've ever examined...
I'm curious what that reason is. I don't see any value to gold other than its scarcity, and there are plenty of things that are scarce.
What makes gold so magical to some folks? The only solid answer I've ever heard is "because it's always been that way". As answer go, it doesn't satisfy.
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It was valued by the ancients, because their alien overlords forced mankind to mine it for them, you see. Once they had enough to repair and refuel their ships, they returned to Orion's belt. But the kings of men did not understand the principles of electromagnetic conductance. They believed that simply having gold could give them power to fly, and to have weapons of fire, and to watch the cricket matches from back home in the Betelgeuse system.
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I'm curious what that reason is. I don't see any value to gold other than its scarcity, and there are plenty of things that are scarce.
What makes gold so magical to some folks? The only solid answer I've ever heard is "because it's always been that way". As answer go, it doesn't satisfy.
I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.
For example Pt is generally more expensive than gold. Pt is mainly used in spark plugs and catalytic coverters, but it's inertness is what makes it valuable, along with scarcity. For example, the pure Pt plugs used in the wright bros plane would cost over a million dollars in today's market.
When you think about it, when Ag, Cu, and Au are placed in ascending value, their reactivity with O2 is also in ascending order. I don't think that is a coincidence.
Al prices also indicate interesting trends. In napoleons time, Al was far more expensive than Au. This is because the ore processing technique yielded low results with a high energy input required. As the tech developed Al became cheaper. It's primary usefulness is still resistance to reacting with O2. As well as it's strength per mass.
Au's primary industrial uses also rely on it's stability, one use being the MAF sensor in cars, or air flow sensors in general. These sensors rely on electrical resistance changes due to air movement. Naturally, these require elements that are very corrosion resistant.
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To respond to Silver Bullet's question, in a shtf situation, I think compact nutrition, like GU or Clif bars would be really valuable for both use and trade.
That makes sense to me. Of course, that's assuming they're not imprinted with the Alliance logo. :cool:
Many nutrition bars seem to be like glorified candy bars. What bars would provide the best nutritional value ?
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It was valued by the ancients, because their alien overlords forced mankind to mine it for them, you see. Once they had enough to repair and refuel their ships, they returned to Orion's belt. But the kings of men did not understand the principles of electromagnetic conductance. They believed that simply having gold could give them power to fly, and to have weapons of fire, and to watch the cricket matches from back home in the Betelgeuse system.
I was just about to point that out, but you beat me to it.
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The barter items thing is also pretty strange. I don’t see how it could possibly be a smart idea to buy goods to sell or trade after a crisis, surely not in the quantities suggested by some people. Beats me, are they going to set up a shop in their garages and sell everything? Would you buy food an other supplies from a guy that sells it with no possible way of verifying the conditions under which the food was kept? How much of a profit could you possibly make , comparing to having saved that same amount of money in gold, for example?
I don’t understand it and I don’t know of anyone that made a profit by doing this. Yet, people stock up on TP and many other cheap, easily obtainable items thinking that it will be “worth it’s weight in gold” after the crisis. Newsflash: if it’s cheap and easy to produce, it will keep being that way AFTER tshtf.
No garage sales, more like "hey, neighbor, I'll trade you two bars of soap for a dozen oranges." Trading during times of crisis isn't conjecture, it's history.
As far as being cheap and easy to produce, that depends on how extensive the crisis is. If it's nationwide, there might not be any producers. Even local catastrophes sometimes result in a shortage of items on the grocery stores' shelves.
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Al prices also indicate interesting trends. In napoleons time, Al was far more expensive than Au. This is because the ore processing technique yielded low results with a high energy input required. As the tech developed Al became cheaper. It's primary usefulness is still resistance to reacting with O2. As well as it's strength per mass.
A really, really minor point - Aluminum is actually quite reactive to oxygen. The reason that it doesn't corrode away like steel does is due to the fact that it generally doesn't flake away and expose the parent metal below to more oxygen. This passivity layer of AlOx protects the aluminum from further corrosion. The process of anodizing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anodizing)aluminum increases the depth and thus protection of this natural passivity layer. Aluminum oxide is considered a ceramic due to it's mostly inert chemical properties, and is actually used as grit in common hardware store grade sandpaper
In practice application one really notices this when they decide to use TapFree (a cutting lubricant for steel) on an aluminum part prior to cutting internal threads. Initially protected by the passivity layer, the TapFree will nonreactivly sit upon the surface of the hole. However, as soon as a tap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tap_and_die#Tap)stars cutting threads, exposing raw aluminum, a huge burning mess of black crap will fill the air with acrid , carcinogenic, toxic smoke. Or so I'm told... :angel:
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Some species may be regionally hunted to extinction, though
My guess is that bunny rabbits and wild boar will survive for quite a while.
Having 10 years worth of food that perishes in 5 is likely not a good strategy.
But how about buying food that lasts 25 years ? Freeze-dried sealed in cans.
http://www.nitro-pak.com/index.php?cPath=147_58_29&osCsid=e64113e593a2f436b1d1132f9f5f9eff (http://www.nitro-pak.com/index.php?cPath=147_58_29&osCsid=e64113e593a2f436b1d1132f9f5f9eff)
http://beprepared.com/category.asp_Q_c_E_60_A_c2c_E_ln_A_name_E_FoodStorageFreezeDriedFoods (http://beprepared.com/category.asp_Q_c_E_60_A_c2c_E_ln_A_name_E_FoodStorageFreezeDriedFoods)
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What bars would provide the best nutritional value ?
Check on lifeboat rations. Seven Oceans has/had boxed bars that were practically tasteless. Weren't bad, but wouldn't be gorged-on because they were tasty, either. Had a multi-year lifespan, if memory serves.
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I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.
Obviously quite a lot of rubbish, supported by not one shred of scientific proof. The alien hypothesis I mentioned above is obviously the more reasonable supposition. Obviously.
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Ok, seriously, you've gone away from being funny and now you just clutter up every damn thread I'm trying to read. Can you please go back to being nicer? :mad:
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I have noticed a general trend about this, I think that a metals resistance to reacting with oxygen coupled with ore processing difficulty, and scarcity have historically indicated it's price.
For example Pt is generally more expensive than gold. Pt is mainly used in spark plugs and catalytic coverters
Um, actually, no. Platinum definitely gets a lot of use in cat converters and is currently pretty high profile in spark plugs, but it's also a critical industrial metal. It's used in almost every industry as a catalyst for any number of processes. Without platinum many of the processes we never think about would be horrendously expensive, if they were possible at all. Creates a lot of demand, that.
As with anything else the value is determined by good old supply and demand. The chemical properties allow for a use that contributes to the demand for the metal, but the property alone has nothing to do with some kind of inherent worth. In the case of metals like platinum, palladium, and aluminum, the demand is mainly industrial/manufacturing. In cases of gold and silver, there is a consumer market in the form of decorative items (read: jewelry), gold moreso because it alloys easily, takes a high polish, and resists oxidation (which, in addition to being extremely ductile, is also why it is critical to the electronics industry for very small conductors).
When you think about it, when Ag, Cu, and Au are placed in ascending value, their reactivity with O2 is also in ascending order. I don't think that is a coincidence.
It is entirely coincidental, actually.
Brad
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Check on lifeboat rations. Seven Oceans has/had boxed bars that were practically tasteless. Weren't bad, but wouldn't be gorged-on because they were tasty, either. Had a multi-year lifespan, if memory serves.
Savalas, that's a pretty impressive product.
http://www.compactforlife.com/seven-oceans-food-rations/ (http://www.compactforlife.com/seven-oceans-food-rations/)
I'll have to look into that further. Looks great for the situations where you have to leave the home. I'll stick with freeze-dried for toughing it out in the home.
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A really, really minor point - Aluminum is actually quite reactive to oxygen. The reason that it doesn't corrode away like steel does is due to the fact that it generally doesn't flake away and expose the parent metal below to more oxygen. This passivity layer of AlOx protects the aluminum from further corrosion. The process of anodizing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anodizing)aluminum increases the depth and thus protection of this natural passivity layer. Aluminum oxide is considered a ceramic due to it's mostly inert chemical properties, and is actually used as grit in common hardware store grade sandpaper
In practice application one really notices this when they decide to use TapFree (a cutting lubricant for steel) on an aluminum part prior to cutting internal threads. Initially protected by the passivity layer, the TapFree will nonreactivly sit upon the surface of the hole. However, as soon as a tap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tap_and_die#Tap)stars cutting threads, exposing raw aluminum, a huge burning mess of black crap will fill the air with acrid , carcinogenic, toxic smoke. Or so I'm told... :angel:
you are correct, I didn't want to go into that much detail. Ag and Cu also form stable oxide layers at a slow rate. The oxide layer stability means the metal has practical uses.
In other words at normal atm conditions, more valuble metals do not form oxide layers the way Fe and Mg do. Their value is also a fcn of scarcity and ore processing.
Um, actually, no. Platinum definitely gets a lot of use in cat converters and is currently pretty high profile in spark plugs, but it's also a critical industrial metal. It's used in almost every industry as a catalyst for any number of processes. Without platinum many of the processes we never think about would be horrendously expensive, if they were possible at all. Creates a lot of demand, that.
As with anything else the value is determined by good old supply and demand. The chemical properties allow for a use that contributes to the demand for the metal, but the property alone has nothing to do with some kind of inherent worth. In the case of metals like platinum, palladium, and aluminum, the demand is mainly industrial/manufacturing. In cases of gold and silver, there is a consumer market in the form of decorative items (read: jewelry), gold moreso because it alloys easily, takes a high polish, and resists oxidation (which, in addition to being extremely ductile, is also why it is critical to the electronics industry for very small conductors).
why claim to disagree with my post when you didn't read it?
I said the main use for Pt is in automobiles. If this is not the case, why did the price of Pt plummit when auto manufacturers idled last year? You claim it primary use is as a catalyst, agreeing with me when I said it's usefulness is in catalytic converters.
By claiming that the metals resistance to oxidation has nothing to do with price is wrong, IMO. What if I tried to sell you, a circuit board or power line manufacturer, a metal alloy that has a low resistance and high thermal conductivity compaired to Ag Cu or Au, but oxidizes at twice the rate of Fe and does not produce a stabile oxide layer? How much is my alloy worth? I would say almost nothing. The boards will fail and have a decreased lifespan, the power lines will need to replaced often, etc. This alloy would have very little uses due to it's restrictive enviromental requirements.
I did say that scarcity directly affects the price. Economic scarcity is defined by demand and supply.
How can a metals chemical properties have nothing to do with it's value, but everything to do with its usefulness when the metals usefulness directly affects demand, assuming the resource supply is limited by any means?
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why claim to disagree with my post when you didn't read it?
I said the main use for Pt is in automobiles. If this is not the case, why did the price of Pt plummit when auto manufacturers idled last year? You claim it primary use is as a catalyst, agreeing with me when I said it's usefulness is in catalytic converters.
By claiming that the metals resistance to oxidation has nothing to do with price is wrong, IMO. What if I tried to sell you, a circuit board or power line manufacturer, a metal alloy that has a low resistance and high thermal conductivity compaired to Ag Cu or Au, but oxidizes at twice the rate of Fe and does not produce a stabile oxide layer? How much is my alloy worth? I would say almost nothing. The boards will fail and have a decreased lifespan, the power lines will need to replaced often, etc. This alloy would have very little uses due to it's restrictive enviromental requirements.
You post appears to claim that the value is a direct result of a property of the metal. It isn't. The value is the result of industry being able to make use of that property. If they found another substance that would do the job better, the metal would no longer be in demand and the price would fall even though is still retained the same property. If your assertion was correct the metal would retain the value as a direct result of a single chemical property regardless of demand.
Brad
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I think the only things of truly lasting value to survival are know-how, intelligence, attitude, and physical conditioning. If you are lacking in any of those departments, it makes no difference how much ammo, TP, food, medicine, or water you store. Conversely, if you are strong in those departments, you will find ways to gain what you need in most situations.
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Which brings up the question, what are other items of trading value when TSHTF ?
Properly stored coffee and tobacco. Both addictive, and even those of us with seeds and knowledge to grow them will have a few months' lead time - much longer than the addicts will want to be without a fix.
A pallet or two of name-brand sodas could also be worth a lot if you have the room to store it, for the same reason.
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Properly stored coffee and tobacco. Both addictive, and even those of us with seeds and knowledge to grow them will have a few months' lead time - much longer than the addicts will want to be without a fix.
A pallet or two of name-brand sodas could also be worth a lot if you have the room to store it, for the same reason.
For that matter, alcohol likely fits in that category.
Those are actually suggested by ferfal in another of his posts because even if your society (somewhat) comes back, these luxury items become useful for bribes.
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Properly stored coffee and tobacco. Both addictive, and even those of us with seeds and knowledge to grow them will have a few months' lead time - much longer than the addicts will want to be without a fix.
A pallet or two of name-brand sodas could also be worth a lot if you have the room to store it, for the same reason.
Coffee and tobacco, though, would be expensive to store in bulk ahead of a breakdown. If we're talking Argentina style, I agree with ferfal, that you'd be better off investing into things that will continue your income stream during such turbulent times. End of the world as we know it? Investing in the necessities and ways to create the necesseites. I'd think that being able to grow and preserve food would get one a very, very long ways in such a scenerio.
My 10 year plan is to have income property. We're having to hit reset on some of our personal spending habits, otherwise it'd be my 5 year plan.
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Coffee and tobacco, though, would be expensive to store in bulk ahead of a breakdown.
That depends largely on the climate; if you can get bulk tobacco leaves cured, and dry them out properly, they'll keep a long time and still taste fine when brought back up to the right moisture content.
Investing in the necessities and ways to create the necesseites.
If you're the only one with smokes and coffee, you'll find plenty of people willing to provide you with necessities.
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The bribe aspect is really interesting.
What is the shelf life of the average booze (rum, vodka, whiskey)? Pretty much indefinte, right?
I looked up bulk tobacco, vacum sealed 16 ounces for about $40 before shipping. Not sure how to get dried unprepared leaves. How many cigarettes would a pound of tobacco probably make?
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I looked up bulk tobacco, vacum sealed 16 ounces for about $40 before shipping. Not sure how to get dried unprepared leaves. How many cigarettes would a pound of tobacco probably make?
Figure roughly six oz to the carton. Also, most tobacco mfgs offer an unflavored pipe-cut bulk pack. Criss Cross Smooth Blend is one. It doesn't get hit with the monstrous tobacco tax the cigarette-cut bulk tobacco does.
Brad
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Interesting. So a pound would make a couple cartons worth of cigs.
Considering that in the long run, people would make their own booze, I'd think of the "sin" items, tobacco probably makes the most sense to store for future bartering or bribery. Also, considering the way things are going with taxes on tobacco....
Can pipe tobacco be smoked in a cigarette?
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Interesting. So a pound would make a couple cartons worth of cigs.
Considering that in the long run, people would make their own booze, I'd think of the "sin" items, tobacco probably makes the most sense to store for future bartering or bribery. Also, considering the way things are going with taxes on tobacco....
Can pipe tobacco be smoked in a cigarette?
the janitor at my old job would roll pipe tobacco in his cigarettes to cut down on cost. Seemed to work for him.
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Can pipe tobacco be smoked in a cigarette?
A lot of the "pipe tobacco" in cheap bulk packs these days is just coarse-cut cigarette tobacco. That's specifically to get around the ridiculous tax increase on loose cigarette tobacco. (around $24/lb, IIRC, up from around $1/lb)
As for whole leaves, if the midribs haven't been removed, and the leaf isn't otherwise prepared, (such as shredding without removing the rib - curing doesn't count) it's not really tobacco yet for tax purposes. If you can find somebody growing it locally, you can make them a deal on leftover leaves.
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How did tobacco become a survival necessity?
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How did tobacco become a survival necessity?
A fair number of people are addicted to it.
As such, it becomes highly valuable when normal supply lines sources dry up.
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Can pipe tobacco be smoked in a cigarette?
Depends. If it's an unflavored, non-cavendish you can. It's nothing but rough-cut regular tobacco. Flavored or cavendish, I wouldn't. The flavoring oils can make things pretty harsh.
Brad
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A fair number of people are addicted to it.
As such, it becomes highly valuable when normal supply lines sources dry up.
So, they would rather smoke than eat? For how long?
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It all depends on if you think tikiwiki will be a Mad Max style return to the Dark Ages, or an Argentinean style hyperinflation.
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Soap of all kinds, disposable diapers, baby wipes, feminine hygiene products, baby formula, cooking oil (especially if things are so bad there are bulk-grain handouts from .gov), sugar, salt, trash bags, charcoal briquettes, CLEAN/un-used 5gal buckets.
These are all things that are dirt cheap now, can keep for a long time, and are invaluable if SHTF.
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How did tobacco become a survival necessity?
Alcohol and gold aren't survival necessities, either. And yet..
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Alcohol and gold aren't survival necessities, either. And yet..
Precisely my point, minus the "yet". I think both are ridiculously overvalued for purposes of preparing for Postapocalyptia.
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Precisely my point, minus the "yet". I think both are ridiculously overvalued for purposes of preparing for Postapocalyptia.
In general I agree with you, however someone in that situation will need to be resourceful and clever.
alcohol has uses as an antiseptic, painkiller, disinfectant, fuel source (if >50%), and ice melt.
Food for thought. If you store everclear you can mix it with small quantities of gas if you desperate for fuel.
As I understand it, the only difference between the e85 cars and normal cars is the fuel line is upgraded so it won't corrode. If you go that route, try to find a dessicant that will ab/dsorb water from the everclear.
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alcohol has uses as an antiseptic, painkiller, disinfectant, fuel source (if >50%), and ice melt.
Anyone else thinking of that one episode of STNG where Picard, Wesley, and that other guy got stuck on that desert planet? :laugh:
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Precisely my point, minus the "yet". I think both are ridiculously overvalued for purposes of preparing for Postapocalyptia.
Again, this depends on what you envision that Doomsday scenario to be. Based on the history of actual modern countries, that have actually collapsed, they would in fact be excellent to have. But then it's been a while since I watched Mad Max so... :P
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Alcohol is a necessity in my survival kit. I have a 1.75 of vodka and burbon in my kit at camp and here at home. I also have two gallons of lamp oil and two gallons of Coleman fuel at each location too. I store rice and beans, dried, in plastic jugs and my selection of canned goods gets rotated on a regular basis. I have a stash of silver at both locations. Only one ounce of gold. That is what started this thread in the first place. Of course, a supply of guns and ammo are a given....chris3
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Again, this depends on what you envision that Doomsday scenario to be. Based on the history of actual modern countries, that have actually collapsed, they would in fact be excellent to have. But then it's been a while since I watched Mad Max so... :P
I get that point completely. But, I am not so certain that history bears the conclusion nearly as well as it is commonly perceived. Counterexamples:
1) gold should have been a great hedge in the Great Depression, but then FDR comes about and outlaws privately held gold.
2) The richer jews had gold and jewelry that should have saved them, but instead made them greater targets for the Nazis, for both extortion and expropriation.
If we are talking about a mini-collapse rather than mutant-zombie Postapocalyptia, it seems ferfal is much closer to the money when he talks about investments that would generate income in almost any conditions of limited severity. For example, rental properties or a small business providing less dispensable products or services.
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I thought we were talking about using alcohol/tobacco as bribes? ??? I'd think gold might work well for that, too. And as a hedge against hyper-inflation.
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Plenty of places on the Internet to buy all the physical gold you want.
Brick and mortar dealers are not holding a lot of gold because it is so volatile. If they can't sell it quick, they wholesale it off to reduce their risk.
The mint stopped making 2009 bullion coins and started making 2010 coins, but won't release them until 2010.
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If you are intent upon buying gold, may I humbly suggest www.ajpm.com. I am not afilliated with them in any way except as a satisfied customer. When you strike a deal there and pay, that price is good regardless of any move in the market. You may have to wait a bit, a couple of weeks or so for shipment, while they accumulate enough orders to buy a hundred or more ounces at a time. That being said, whatever the price you paid is the price at shipping time, no crying "we had to pay more so we want more money from you". If the price goes up, you win. If the price goes down, you lose. That's how it is with commodities. AJPM is a square trader and a fair dealer.
Russ
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I thought we were talking about using alcohol/tobacco as bribes? ??? I'd think gold might work well for that, too. And as a hedge against hyper-inflation.
Bribes, and as common barter fodder. Your neighbor down the street has a kick ass garden. You trade some booze for some fresh food, and then can that fresh food. Win win. Or, you need to clear a checkpoint without being searched, because you're packing heat. Cigarettes for the soldiers manning the checkpoint and you get a wave through.
Gold is so that you can march into the bank and convert it to hard currency, regardless of what the exchange rate is.
When the Yellowstone Super Volcanoe blows....well, then its a different story. Might be years before any kind of organized civilization emerges from the survivors. If you're able to homestead in place, then gold might reemerge with some value. Having the ability to grow and keep your own food is king in that scenerio.