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Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: taurusowner on February 13, 2010, 04:43:24 AM

Title: Could America fight a War?
Post by: taurusowner on February 13, 2010, 04:43:24 AM
This thread isn't prompted by anything other than my own curiosity about other's opinions.  Since Korea, America has not been in a true "war" with another nation of comparable capabilities.  Everything about our military now seems to be geared towards fighting in small regional conflicts against a vastly inferior but asymmetrical enemy.  Our vehicles, weapons, tactics, uniforms, etc are all about fighting insurgents in the desert or mountains.  In WWII and to some extent, Korea, the enemy of the US was on par with us.  Not so much any more.  We have fewer casualties in the entire Iraq/Afghanistan conflict for the past decade than in 1 day of WWII.  So I'm curious, how would we fare if a real war started now?  How would America do against an enemy with the same access to night vision, precision bombs, body armor, armored vehicles, UAVs, high tech aircraft, etc?  Lets say we had to fight China next week, how do you think we would fare?

Caveat: no WMDs.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: vaskidmark on February 13, 2010, 05:18:12 AM
Could the USA get out of all the regional conflicts, peace-keeping assignments, disaster-rescue missions and other engagements so that the fighting forces could be consolidated against an "equal" foe?

Could the USA sustain any military effort through replacement of materiel and personnel, let alone provide the supply train necessary to move those items to the fighting front?

I'd have to say "No" in response to your question because the answer to my questions is another series of "No"s.  The USA cannot produce the materials of war, let alone move them to where the fighting might be taking place.  Our troops are currently spread paper-thin over multiple assignments for which I do not see am orderly withdrawal - despite the political ramblings and rumblings to the contrary.  Nor do I see the political will to consolidate forces and engage in a major head-to-head fight, even presuming our borders are breached by armed invaders.  (No, I do not foresee an armed invasion led by Cubans coming up through Mexico, as much as I enjoyed the movie.)

Your question is couched in terms that actually invalidate current military planning.  As I see things, we are still basing the control/prevention of a sustained world-wide conflict (USA v. PRC as you posit) with the use of WMDs and mutually-assured destruction.  The Mongolian hordes ride their ponies over the frozen Bering Straits.  We respond by nuking both strategic and geo-political targets.  The PRC responds by nuking Chicago and NYC.  We respond with thank-you notes and coordinates for San Francisco and Berkley.

Unless you really believe that the Cubans can move up through Mexico (yes - it was a great movie) I doubt there will be another major slugging match war.  Both sides (the USA and Everybody Else) have hired proxies living in areas where the employers have no real desire to settle so that the various factions can chip away at each other.

In truth the answers are much more complex, but I'm still up and very tired.

stay safe.

skidmark
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: HankB on February 13, 2010, 08:27:58 AM
Quote
The PRC responds by nuking Chicago and NYC.  We respond with thank-you notes and coordinates for San Francisco and Berkley.
Early thread win.  =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Sergeant Bob on February 13, 2010, 11:08:40 AM
Early thread win.  =D

Yep. Thread's over! =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gowen on February 13, 2010, 11:39:50 AM
Game over man, game over.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: AJ Dual on February 13, 2010, 12:56:59 PM
IMO, IF and it's a big IF, there was sufficient will to action with the current administration, we could probably mess any power or group of powers up with missiles, cruise missiles and airstrikes, naval power etc. to buy us enough time to get a sufficient conventional footing back to start the actual slugfest.

If you notice long-term trends, you'll see that there is A LOT of RFP activity and tests being done for what would have been traditonal nuclear delivery systems but used for conventional weaponry to give us anytime/anyplace strike capabilities.

Not exactly the best example, since it's more of an asymetric warfare solution, but there is work being done on the SM-3 missile which has become famous for shipboard ABM work, to convert it to an upper stage hypersonic glider with a conventional sub-500lb warhead/payload.

This is more of an IRBM insurgent/terrorist assassination tool, but you get the idea.

Also, an afterthought, but one might also want to consider the U.S.'s undeclared capabilities. Keep in mind that the highest tech systems we have now are products of the 80's and 90's mostly. I'd be floored if we don't have a rather significant stealth UAV/long-loiter cruise missile type of attack capability already.  The time frame of how long the F117-A was operational, but undeclared might provide some insight as to how long such a system may have been under wraps.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 13, 2010, 01:09:54 PM
I would think that our intelligence capabilities are now such that a Pearl Harbor-style attack wouldn't be possible, and that we'd have sufficient indicators of an impending war to make needed changes. (Removing troops from other countries, etc).

I can't think of another country that would want to destroy Chicago, San Francisco and NYC, though. I'm sure our enemies know the pain these three already inflict upon us.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: lupinus on February 13, 2010, 01:29:54 PM
Another equally important question isn't just could we, it's would we.

Americans no longer have the stomach for such things. Can you imagine Utah Beach or the Bulge happening today in Iraq, Afghanistan, or anywhere else for that matter? The general public and media would be out for anyone and everyone's heads, there would likely be investigations out the wazoo, and we'd loose all will to fight. Hell what we've taken in near a decade would have been a good week in WW2 or ONE good field battle in the Revolution or Civil war.

Without some major event making the general public hate an enemy and really making them feel the need to kill the bastards rather then blaming their own politicians, I don't see an America with the will to fight, forget the capability to fight.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MillCreek on February 13, 2010, 01:41:23 PM
I wonder how we would fare in a regional conflict against someone like the UK or Germany.  Clearly we have greater numbers, but they would be pretty darn competitive on a pound for pound basis.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 13, 2010, 01:48:27 PM
Quote
on a pound for pound basis

Until they ran out of pounds of Brits or Germans, that is...
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: vaskidmark on February 13, 2010, 02:03:38 PM
I would think that our intelligence capabilities are now such that a Pearl Harbor-style attack wouldn't be possible, and that we'd have sufficient indicators of an impending war to make needed changes. (Removing troops from other countries, etc).

I can't think of another country that would want to destroy Chicago, San Francisco and NYC, though. I'm sure our enemies know the pain these three already inflict upon us.

Dear $Diety, talk about the placement of opposing concepts.

#1 - just how well do you really believe we are at connecting the dots, and what evidence can you bring to the teble in support of that belief?  Remember, the absence of an event does not prove anything except the event is currently absent.  Why it is absent needs to be demonstrated.

#2 - So you agree that the PRC would nuke Berkley off the face of SoCal?  In spite of the pain already being inflicted by the other metro centers, are you aware of the impact theirvelimination would have on the running of the USA?  They were not mentioned just for the possible humor available, but because eliminating any of them does in fact carry the easy possibility of bringing the operation of the country to its knees.  Take out all 3 and it would take years to recover.

Now - for the amazement factor:  I'm amazed that anyone believes the USA has the manufacturing capacity to carry out a slugfest war with anybody, big or little.  Even if we could get Generalissimo Motors to stop churning out The Peoples' Cars and instead produce The Peoples' Tanks, we don't make the steel to build them or the ships to send them overseas if that's where the war is going to be fought.

Thank $Diety we have geniuses in the Pentagon.  [Foghorn Leghorn voice] That's a joke, son. [/Foghorn Leghorn voice]

stay safe.

skidmark
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 13, 2010, 03:06:33 PM
Quote
#2 - So you agree that the PRC would nuke Berkley off the face of SoCal?  In spite of the pain already being inflicted by the other metro centers, are you aware of the impact theirvelimination would have on the running of the USA?  They were not mentioned just for the possible humor available, but because eliminating any of them does in fact carry the easy possibility of bringing the operation of the country to its knees.  Take out all 3 and it would take years to recover.

I guess I should have added a sarcasm smiley.

As for our intelligence capabilities, I'm assuming that if we can stop terrorist plots against us, we have the capability to see troop and equipment buildups that would be a sign of a large military operation. We were able to see missiles in Cuba, and that was nearly 50 years ago.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Angel Eyes on February 13, 2010, 03:55:15 PM
#2 - So you agree that the PRC would nuke Berkley off the face of SoCal? 

Nitpick: Berkeley is not in southern California.

Moreover, I don't believe it's in China's best interests to start a major war with us. They're holding our debt.  The North Koreans are just crazy enough to do it, if they got a delivery system with enough range, and if the Chinese were unable or unwilling to rein them in.

Going a bit off-topic: the threat of stateless entities such as Al Qaeda is IMO much greater than a "traditional" war with another nation.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MillCreek on February 13, 2010, 04:20:56 PM
Until they ran out of pounds of Brits or Germans, that is...

Since ex-wife 2.0 was a Navy lifer, I spent some time in the clubs of Navy Base Puget Sound, Bangor, etc.  I can tell you that the USN subdrivers had a whole lot of respect for the Royal Navy subdrivers.  I was once chatting with a O-6 who had commanded a Trident and went through the Royal Navy sub Prospective Commanding Officers course as an exchange student.  He was of the opinion that the Royal Navy's PCO course was more difficult and placed much more emphasis on fighting the ship as opposed to the USN.  He blamed Rickover for creating the attitude that a USN subdriver was an engineer first and foremost.  He said the RN felt the role of the Captain was to lead and fight the ship and leave the engineers to have the lights on. 

Although I have no personal knowledge of his subject matter, I thought his comments were interesting.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: makattak on February 13, 2010, 05:19:02 PM
Moreover, I don't believe it's in China's best interests to start a major war with us. They're holding our debt.  The North Koreans are just crazy enough to do it, if they got a delivery system with enough range, and if the Chinese were unable or unwilling to rein them in.

France was Germany's number one trading partner in 1939. It didn't make sense to go to war with them.

Yet, they did.

Keep in mind the decision to start a war is most often not the wisest course of action. It still happens.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: vaskidmark on February 13, 2010, 05:34:21 PM
Nitpick: Berkeley is not in southern California.

Moreover, I don't believe it's in China's best interests to start a major war with us. They're holding our debt.  The North Koreans are just crazy enough to do it, if they got a delivery system with enough range, and if the Chinese were unable or unwilling to rein them in.

Going a bit off-topic: the threat of stateless entities such as Al Qaeda is IMO much greater than a "traditional" war with another nation.


OK, so my sense of California geography sucks.  But the, so does California. =)

I picked the PRC because I am not aware of any other major power with the resources to invade the USA.  If you know of one/some please feel free to replace PRC with your favorite candidate.

Angeleyes & Monkeyleg: Yes, nearly 50 years ago we saw missles in Cuba and made the Ruskies believe we would destroy lots of them and their property if they did not back down.  They believed us because, among other things, we were sitting across from each other in tanks all along Europe's major historical invasion routes.  The USSR does not exist any more and the USA has withdrawn significant forces and materiel from those bases to fund current operations in SW Asia.  Who ya got?

And Monkeyleg:  Got proof that we have actually stopped a major AlQueda attack cold?  Not some doofus with a couple of guns and a map showing where Ft. Dix is located off the Jersey Turnpike.  Remember the underpants bomber whose Daddy dropped a dime on him that we still did not stop - it was passengers & crew that derailed his plans, along with a defective fuse.  I said "Remember, the absence of an event does not prove anything except the event is currently absent.  Why it is absent needs to be demonstrated."  Please demonstrate that USA intelligence has actually stopped any major terrorist plot, or any verifiable plot by a major terrorist.  I'll be here waiting.

syay safe.

skidmark


Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 13, 2010, 05:56:54 PM
Sorry, I don't get intelligence briefings. We do know that there have been plots to attack LA, the Brooklyn bridge, and other targets.

Churchill knew the Nazi's were going to bomb Coventry. The information was gained through the Allies' cracking of the German code. If he had tried to stop the Coventry bombing, it would have indicated that the code had been broken, so he let the city be bombed.

If Coventry had not been bombed, would that have been proof that the Allies hadn't broken the Nazi code?
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: roo_ster on February 13, 2010, 05:59:08 PM
Got proof that we have actually stopped a major AlQueda attack cold?  Not some doofus with a couple of guns and a map showing where Ft. Dix is located off the Jersey Turnpike. 

Our CIA interrogators who waterboarded the big three, of which KSM is most famous, managed to get enough intel to quash several bigtime operations.

Since then, though, we haven't had much come out that shows our intel in good light.

My opinion is that our human intel is weak.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Parker Dean on February 13, 2010, 06:50:26 PM
France was Germany's number one trading partner in 1939. It didn't make sense to go to war with them.

Yet, they did.

Keep in mind the decision to start a war is most often not the wisest course of action. It still happens.

Yeah, but France wasn't the objective. "Lebensraum" in the East was. That's why it was necessary to roll up Czechoslovakia and Poland in order to reach the areas of the Soviet Union they really did want and have a contiguous country out of all of it. Hitler thought (with reason, thank you Neville Chamberlain et al) that Britain and France were bluffing about Poland.

Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 13, 2010, 07:14:33 PM
Quote
Please demonstrate that USA intelligence has actually stopped any major terrorist plot, or any verifiable plot by a major terrorist.  I'll be here waiting.

You'll be waiting a pretty damned long time.  Hell, I'm not allowed to write about what I did in my TS/SCI job for 75 years after I retired, per my non-disclosure agreement I signed with Uncle Sam.  You think they're gonna declassify the particulars of thwarted Al-Qaeda terrorism attempts while they're still fighting those same bad actors?  

If so, maybe I have some beachfront property in Idaho to sell, too.  

I sometimes think that people really should take an unclassified look at how comprehensive our intelligence organizations really are.  I know folks I talk to face-to-face have no idea that my agency did what it did, and with the aircraft and science assets specifically allocated - and we were just small potatoes in the general ISR scheme of things.  Suffice it to say, we're not as deaf, dumb, and blind as they'd make us out to be.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 13, 2010, 07:26:05 PM
Quote
My opinion is that our human intel is weak.

HUMINT ain't cheap.  None of the INTs are, but HUMINT especially so.  People tend to get killed getting the info...
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MechAg94 on February 13, 2010, 09:03:25 PM
France was Germany's number one trading partner in 1939. It didn't make sense to go to war with them.

Yet, they did.

Keep in mind the decision to start a war is most often not the wisest course of action. It still happens.
First, France and Germany had a recent history of fighting each other even before WWI. 

2nd, I would think that China would have a lot of problems if they lost us as a trading partner.  Would their economy handle it?
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: zahc on February 13, 2010, 09:16:30 PM
Quote
Without some major event making the general public hate an enemy and really making them feel the need to kill the bastards rather then blaming their own politicians, I don't see an America with the will to fight, forget the capability to fight.

QFT. Just think about WWII, we got to sit and read newspapers about the war "over there" for a good many months, without doing anything, plus we got attacked. It's hard to make the case that we started the WWII problem ourself, unlike any war today.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 13, 2010, 11:18:48 PM
WWII wasn't even all that popular here at home. There were a lot of isolationists, especially early on, who wanted to let Europe handle it on their own.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: AJ Dual on February 13, 2010, 11:24:45 PM
WWII wasn't even all that popular here at home. There were a lot of isolationists, especially early on, who wanted to let Europe handle it on their own.

Indeed. WWII looks like the "good war" (from an American perspective) just through the lens of history.

And in the aftermath, the press was frequently critical with the occupation of Europe, old 1945-46 news articles and editorials could literally have "Germany" replaced with "Iraq" and you could run them in today's papers/websites and no one would notice the difference.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Hutch on February 14, 2010, 09:31:29 AM
To re-hash and expand on some of the points made:

With satellite technology as good as it is, and with SOSUS and other technical intellgence gathering assets in place, a sucker-punch by the PRC aimed at forcing us to the bargaining table is just not conceivable.  If there was an A-Sat attack, and a corresponding cyber-attack on our C3I, that in itself would set our spidey-sensing all a'tingling, looking for the other shoe (or bomb) to drop.  Trying to imagine the PRC attempting a coup de main attack against Western (or Japanese) territory just exceeds the scope of my imagination.  The PRC doesn't have sealift or blue-water capability to sustain and protect it against the USN.

Why?  What would the PRC gain?  They don't want our land, or our resources, they want our money.  As fast as we're shoveling it over to them, why would they intervene?  With the balance of trade they run with us, they can buy anything they want, oil, metals, intellectual property, anything, and pay for it with USD.

All that said, the reverse is certainly not true.  If it was in our absolutely vital national interest, we could raise the U.S. flag on any spot on Earth.  We may not be able to keep it there forever, but there are no forces on the planet that can withstand a determined assault by us. 
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 14, 2010, 10:28:38 AM
Not trying to veer the thread too far, but the Chinese don't need to launch a military assault against us. They could bring us to our knees by selling our T-bonds.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 14, 2010, 12:11:50 PM
Or just cut off our supply of computer parts and WalMart wares.  ;)
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MicroBalrog on February 14, 2010, 12:21:05 PM
Not trying to veer the thread too far, but the Chinese don't need to launch a military assault against us. They could bring us to our knees by selling our T-bonds.

Wouldn't this cause the value of the T-bonds to drop to far, far below what America originally got on them?
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: vaskidmark on February 14, 2010, 12:51:51 PM
As the originator of PRC-as-boogeyman in this discussion, I'd like to say something and then ask a question.

I picked PRC as the boogeyman because I could not think of any other country that might be capable of actually assaulting the USA.  I have always enjoyed the mental image of Mongolian hordes riding ponies across the Bering Sea ice.

Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?

stay safe.

skidmark
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 14, 2010, 01:13:24 PM
Kalifornistan expanding its borders?  =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Strings on February 14, 2010, 02:59:38 PM
>Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?<

Way back when, did anyone around the globe really see us becoming the powerhouse that we are today? Certainly not the British...
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: roo_ster on February 14, 2010, 03:12:27 PM
HUMINT ain't cheap.  None of the INTs are, but HUMINT especially so.  People tend to get killed getting the info...
Agreed, 100%.

I am intentionally picking the weak sister of all our intel means...because most our other intel means range from "pretty good" to "best in class."

One necessary (but insufficient) requirement for robust HUMINT is that the chain of command all the way up & down has some balls.  This is why post-(Eugene) McCarthy Democrat administrations always allow it to wither on the vine and very few Republican administrations ever manage it.  Toss in a risk-averse spook bureaucracy(1) and we are stuck with spooks working out of the embassy who don't speak the local language kissing up to local ministry functionaries...and CIA has no one on the ground in Iraq/Iran/Nextfightistan.

Curse Rumsfeld if you want, he understood our extant humint programswere worthless and worked to develop a DOD humint capacity.




(1) Given the way that the lefties & BHO/any Dem admin wants to prosecute CIA & other executive branch folk for policy disagreements, I can't entirely blame them.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MicroBalrog on February 14, 2010, 03:16:25 PM
>Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?<

Way back when, did anyone around the globe really see us becoming the powerhouse that we are today? Certainly not the British...

Tom Paine did. And Franklin did - and early on, he saw himself as a British citizen and tried to prevent dissolution.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Hutch on February 14, 2010, 03:50:20 PM
Upon reflection, we're thinking about this all wrong.

The next time we sally a major military formation into a shooting battle, it's most likely to be to protect something seen as our vital national interest somewhere other than the CONUS.  A redux of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, somewhere else.  Maybe the PRC engages in a scuffle in the East Indies, or the Syrians/Egyptians decide to look up the Israelis again.  We need oil from the ME, and the Iranians are in a position to stop the flow.  Hmmmm.... anybody heard if Tom Clancy is writing any more books?  Seems like many of his turn out to have been a prediction.

As another alternative, maybe it would be a border war with a Mexico that has fallen to drug lords.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: wmenorr67 on February 14, 2010, 04:08:51 PM
Agreed, 100%.

I am intentionally picking the weak sister of all our intel means...because most our other intel means range from "pretty good" to "best in class."

One necessary (but insufficient) requirement for robust HUMINT is that the chain of command all the way up & down has some balls.  This is why post-(Eugene) McCarthy Democrat administrations always allow it to wither on the vine and very few Republican administrations ever manage it.  Toss in a risk-averse spook bureaucracy(1) and we are stuck with spooks working out of the embassy who don't speak the local language kissing up to local ministry functionaries...and CIA has no one on the ground in Iraq/Iran/Nextfightistan.

Curse Rumsfeld if you want, he understood our extant humint programswere worthless and worked to develop a DOD humint capacity.




(1) Given the way that the lefties & BHO/any Dem admin wants to prosecute CIA & other executive branch folk for policy disagreements, I can't entirely blame them.

Not sure what your background is but calling HUMINT the weak sister in the INTEL community isn't true.  I know for a fact that HUMINT is probably the closest guarded sister of them all.  Those that work in it put their lives on the line daily and even with my TS/SCI, I rarely get to mess in the HUMINT world without being blindfolded before getting to the room so to speak.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: taurusowner on February 14, 2010, 04:24:21 PM
My original question was geared more towards capabilities, not geopolitical probabilities.  As a soldier, everything I see about the Army is geared towards fighting terrorists with ancient AKs.  We hardly do NBC traning, we don't training to fight against massive amounts of well equipped troops, all of our vehicles are meant to stop IEDs.  The Army has trimmed itself into the leaner faster more technological and automated army it is today, in order to fight terrorists.  My question is, is the current US military, capable of fighting a military that isn't made up of a handful of ill equipped zealots?
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MillCreek on February 14, 2010, 04:34:51 PM
^^^ I am this very moment reading a number of books about biological warfare and boy does that give me a pucker factor.  Although weaponizing mass amounts of BW is the real engineering trick, you can do a lot with a little.  I also read some articles just recently casting doubt on the recent US anthrax attacks as being solely attributable to Dr. Bruce Ivins.  I sure hope that our lack of military and civilian preparedness for NBC warfare, especially the B and the C, doesn't come back to bite us some day.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MechAg94 on February 14, 2010, 05:00:36 PM
My original question was geared more towards capabilities, not geopolitical probabilities.  As a soldier, everything I see about the Army is geared towards fighting terrorists with ancient AKs.  We hardly do NBC traning, we don't training to fight against massive amounts of well equipped troops, all of our vehicles are meant to stop IEDs.  The Army has trimmed itself into the leaner faster more technological and automated army it is today, in order to fight terrorists.  My question is, is the current US military, capable of fighting a military that isn't made up of a handful of ill equipped zealots?
IMO, we could.  

However, any army (ours included) that has not fought a major war against a truly capable military in a long time will have to relearn a lot of old lessons as well as new ones.  The question is how good our leadership will be able to adapt and learn.
As far as our equipment, I figure some of it will perform poorly and some it will perform excellently.  No one is going to have a perfect array of equipment.  

My other thought was about the sheer amount of money and material that goes into a truly modern army or navy.  How many countries out there could not only afford to build it, but afford to risk it in action.  Russia is certainly not a country to be left out of the discussion.  IMO, Russia and China are serious adversaries, but I am not sure either of them is a threat outside their own area of the world at least right now.

That is one reason I never had a problem with the military spending money on R&D trying to make sure we had the most capable planes and vehicles we can.  It makes it more likely we would win or stop any initial engagement; or more importantly, make it less likely anyone would try.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas on February 14, 2010, 06:03:24 PM
I can't see China invading the mainland US, but they would like to have Taiwan. I figure that a fight between China and the US would be similar to the Falklands - short, violent, and limited in scope.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: roo_ster on February 14, 2010, 06:24:00 PM
Not sure what your background is but calling HUMINT the weak sister in the INTEL community isn't true.  I know for a fact that HUMINT is probably the closest guarded sister of them all.  Those that work in it put their lives on the line daily and even with my TS/SCI, I rarely get to mess in the HUMINT world without being blindfolded before getting to the room so to speak.
[/quote

Oh, its value is great, but our ability to engage in it is weak and it has been demonstrated to be weak time & time again.

Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MechAg94 on February 14, 2010, 06:52:49 PM
Here are a couple videos that show are martial preparedness for all to see!!!!


http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1928396

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1928396
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Balog on February 14, 2010, 08:03:45 PM
Imho if a major power capable of a multi-regional conflict arose we'd nuke them.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 14, 2010, 08:33:37 PM
Taurusowner's question has been asked before. 

The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MicroBalrog on February 15, 2010, 04:03:06 AM
The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 

They sure do think big.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 15, 2010, 11:54:40 AM
Well, yeah...

Compared to Israel, everything we do over here is big, MB. 
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Strings on February 15, 2010, 02:44:27 PM
Well, so long as they don't plan on a major land war in Asia, we should be fine...  >:D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: roo_ster on February 15, 2010, 03:04:57 PM
Last month DOD & POTUS shinola-canned the "two MTW" concept and pared it down to one MTW.

Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MechAg94 on February 15, 2010, 03:14:48 PM
Taurusowner's question has been asked before. 

The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 
Didn't that philosophy pre-date the draw down of forces in the 90's?  Do we still have the manpower to do that?
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Gewehr98 on February 15, 2010, 04:17:38 PM
According to my sources in the Puzzle Palace, the two-war construct is actually still in effect, even if they're giving lip-service to the smaller plan. My guess is they're just going to give it a name change. 
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 17, 2010, 12:16:18 AM
Trying to imagine the PRC attempting a coup de main attack against Western (or Japanese) territory just exceeds the scope of my imagination.  The PRC doesn't have sealift or blue-water capability to sustain and protect it against the USN.

I can't see China invading the mainland US, but they would like to have Taiwan. I figure that a fight between China and the US would be similar to the Falklands - short, violent, and limited in scope.

We always referred to how the only way the Chicoms could take Taiwan is via the "Million Man Swim".
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: drewtam on February 17, 2010, 06:54:09 PM
Didn't that philosophy pre-date the draw down of forces in the 90's?  Do we still have the manpower to do that?

I would assume that a draft would be instated during major 2 front war. Current forces would be used to forestall devastating loss until full capability is trained and brought to bear, e.g. pacific theater vs european theater during WW2.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: doczinn on February 17, 2010, 06:58:08 PM
You think a draft would work today? I don't.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 17, 2010, 06:59:56 PM
You think a draft would work today? I don't.

If the Chinese hordes were pouring into Nevada via their beachheads in California, then I think a draft might be feasible.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: sanglant on February 17, 2010, 09:01:38 PM
i think it's more likely they'll come in though mexico, everyone else does. [tinfoil]
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 17, 2010, 09:18:32 PM
I'm betting that the Chinese will think it will be easier to come ashore relatively unopposed in Kali, then having to fight their way through heavily (civilian) armed TX, AZ and NM.   =D

Plus they'll clear out some of the hippies and other left-wing loonies.    ;)
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: sanglant on February 17, 2010, 09:37:59 PM
they can do both, tijuana. :angel:
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 17, 2010, 09:53:45 PM
they can do both, tijuana. :angel:

Too close to San Diego and the Marines.  LA and SF on the other hand are rather undefended...... :angel:
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: sanglant on February 17, 2010, 10:08:36 PM
true =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: doczinn on February 17, 2010, 10:14:22 PM
Quote
If the Chinese hordes were pouring into Nevada via their beachheads in California, then I think a draft might be feasible.
If the Chinese were invading, a draft wouldn't be necessary.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 17, 2010, 10:17:48 PM
If the Chinese were invading, a draft wouldn't be necessary.

Umm, untrained mobs get themselves and everyone with them killed.  There will be a need to train troops.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: doczinn on February 17, 2010, 10:18:55 PM
You're reading something into my post that isn't there. Recruiting offices would be swamped.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: wmenorr67 on February 18, 2010, 06:21:52 PM
If the Chinese hordes were pouring into Nevada via their beachheads in California, then I think a draft might be feasible.

Wouldn't be a problem until they got to Nevada.  But you know that they may just take a few minutes of how things are in California and realize that they don't need to fight us, we will be imploding before long anyway.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Stevie-Ray on February 18, 2010, 06:33:16 PM
You're reading something into my post that isn't there. Recruiting offices would be swamped.
Yup, much like 12/7/41 and 9/11/01.

As far as the original question goes, I know for a fact that assembly lines of today are far more modular than they were when tooling up for WWII. CAD programs for the toolplates and such have guaranteed us a much quicker entry into licensed assembly of government contract weapons, which we all know will happen in a world war. It wouldn't take much time for the huge corporations like the auto industry to be churning out whatever weapons were needed in comparison to the year or two it took in the 40s. I'm guessing, of course, but I also think that government contractors already know which corporations employ the types of assembly best suited for a quick turnover to their products.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 18, 2010, 10:55:54 PM
We could always do a trial run and invade Canada.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on February 18, 2010, 11:12:29 PM
Good Lord, what would we want with Canukistan?!

We should put troops on the border just to make sure that none of their Canadianness leaks through.


Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Monkeyleg on February 18, 2010, 11:34:16 PM
Ya, but we should still get der beer der, eh.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: sanglant on February 18, 2010, 11:44:44 PM
Good Lord, what would we want with Canukistan?!

We should put troops on the border just to make sure that none of their Canadianness leaks through.




liberate the whiskey!! [popcorn]


 :facepalm: =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Jim147 on February 18, 2010, 11:45:58 PM
Ya, but we should still get der beer der, eh.

Beer?

We've come for your whiskey.

jim

eta: What he said. =D
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: MillCreek on February 18, 2010, 11:58:05 PM
"No blood for Canadian Club"

Just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: RocketMan on February 19, 2010, 01:22:10 AM
Don't forget the wimmins.  We could invade for the wimmins.
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: Scout26 on February 19, 2010, 01:59:20 AM
Blame Canada !!

http://www.belsouthpark.narod.ru/sound/4.html
Title: Re: Could America fight a War?
Post by: wmenorr67 on February 20, 2010, 07:31:09 AM
Good Lord, what would we want with Canukistan?!

We should put troops on the border just to make sure that none of their Canadianness leaks through.




Tried that to the south and it didn't work so well.