Armed Polite Society

Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: AZRedhawk44 on October 27, 2010, 01:01:47 PM

Title: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AZRedhawk44 on October 27, 2010, 01:01:47 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1324192/Nasa-plan-Hundred-Year-Starship--mission-astronauts-Mars-leave-forever.html

I approve.

Even if the proposed Martian colony becomes a welfare boondoggle, it would permanently put support infrastructure into Earth orbit for routine interplanetary travel.  It would also cause others like Rutan to consider further steps to privatize space, such as mining asteroids for fuel (for routine interplanetary travel) and materials to construct spacecraft or lunar base modules.

The idea of 4 people, though... probably 2 women and 2 men, creeps me out.  The inbreeding of the children would be inhumane.  I can see 4 people up there for 5 years or so to do some preliminary ground work to build a base, then another group to come and augment them.  I can't see a colony surviving in a genetically healthy state (not to mention the civil rights issues of scientifically arranged marriages), with less than at least 50 people.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on October 27, 2010, 01:20:39 PM
You could keep the genetic lines separate until the third generation, the grandchildren.  They should have plenty of time to bring in fresh blood before inbreeding becomes necessary.

Although, could you imagine growing up entirely on Mars and never knowing more than a handful of people?
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Marnoot on October 27, 2010, 02:16:40 PM
From what this article (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1936-magic-number-for-space-pioneers-calculated.html) says, you need ~160 people to get enough genetic diversity for a successful healthy population, though you could go down to 80 with some social engineering (planned breeding).
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: bedlamite on October 27, 2010, 02:34:45 PM
1 way may not be be necessary. The plasma drive has real money behind it, and they already have plans for what amounts to an orbital tow truck. Apparently there is money to be made retrieving dead satellites.

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/support/researching/aspl/index.html (http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/support/researching/aspl/index.html)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 27, 2010, 02:53:27 PM
Quote
The astronauts would be sent supplies from Earth on a regular basis but they would be expected to become self-sufficient on the red planet’s surface as soon as possible.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1324192/Nasa-plan-Hundred-Year-Starship--mission-astronauts-Mars-leave-forever.html#ixzz13afDBFjp

Why couldn't they just send more people later on to broaden the gene pool  ???


BTW, whatever happened to that elliptical solar orbit ferry plan that I heard about a few years back...?  It was supposed to wobble back and forth between earth and mars every few years.  Once built and manuvered into the proper orbit, it would be a permanent "road" to mars and back.


Who would go on such an expedition?  Volunteers or not  =|

You know who the first "settlers" in Australia were  ;)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Harold Tuttle on October 27, 2010, 03:07:24 PM
babies are resource hogs

sterilize the travelers
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AZRedhawk44 on October 27, 2010, 03:36:14 PM
Apparently there is money to be made retrieving dead satellites.



I can believe it.

All the solar arrays, antennas and parabolic dishes are out there.  As well as the fact that it doesn't cost anything to get them into orbit since they're already out there.

If someone could gather derelict satellites for recommissioning, or assembly into new spacecraft, that would be awesome.

Recycling becomes MUCH more valuable when you factor in the lift costs to get any new mass into space.  That whole scene in the latest Star Trek movie, with the NCC-1701 being built on Earth's surface, irked me.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 27, 2010, 03:47:13 PM
I'm pretty sure there would be many follow-on colonists. The newspaper (This is the "Daily Mail" after all...) is hyping the "Robinson Caruso" aspects of this.

The main point is that one-way, they can double or even triple the amount of cargo, supplies, and "bootstrap" technology they send with them.

If the space-craft does not need to come back, they can have larger landers that serve as shelters, or once they dig underground, as "garages" etc. Or have greenhouse and "air factory" modules etc. All the return trip fuel can be extra gear and consumables. Instead of having to take the nuke-reactor home, they get to keep it for power.

The logistical benefits of one-way colonization of Mars are immense.

Taking it further, pieces of the ship could be left in Mars orbit to serve as parts of an eventual space station to serve as an infrastructure base for LMO operations. (Low Mars Orbit) If follow-on ships can dock with the station, and then ferry people/supplies down to Mars, then those ships won't even need landers, and can carry even more gear/people/supplies.

I don't have a count, but I'd say that the majority of the modern Mars mission concepts leave behind lots of gear, or have unmanned cargo/fuel vehicles for return trips etc. This is just taking it to a logical extreme to maximize those advantages.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: BrokenPaw on October 27, 2010, 03:58:13 PM
There's also nothing that says that a colonization expedition has to be made all in one vessel, all at once.  The only reason that speed-of-transit is important is because in space, you only have the raw materials you take with you, and life support requires materials and energy to maintain.  There's no reason at all that one or more slower (and therefore potentially cheaper/simpler) cargo-only ships couldn't be sent on well in advance, with things like reactors, ikea flat-box all-you-need-is-an-allen-wrench housing modules, and so forth, to arrive well before any actual personnel; doing so would actually simplify things quite a lot, because you wouldn't even launch the people-carrier until you had confirmation that the materials they would need are safely at the destination. 

Not having to carry anything at all but life support for the trip should lighten the load for the personnel transport, too.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: grampster on October 27, 2010, 04:28:46 PM
I just got the following message on my rear molar: 

You people keep the hell off'n my planet!!!  If'n you know whats good fer ya!!!
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: taurusowner on October 27, 2010, 04:37:20 PM
Question:  Do you think planets should remain colonies of their respective nations, of earth as a whole, or if they can support it, entirely separate and sovereign worlds.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 27, 2010, 04:48:43 PM
Question:  Do you think planets should remain colonies of their respective nations, of earth as a whole, or if they can support it, entirely separate and sovereign worlds.

Those dang Martian rebels!   :police:
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: BrokenPaw on October 27, 2010, 04:51:05 PM
Question:  Do you think planets should remain colonies of their respective nations, of earth as a whole, or if they can support it, entirely separate and sovereign worlds.

Until they can achieve self-sufficiency, they simply cannot be sovereign worlds.  Afterward, it only makes sense for them to be sovereign; fighting a war across an ocean during the 18th century was less of a logistical nightmare than attempting to put down a revolution across an interplanetary gap. 

The needs of the people of Mars would be different enough from the needs of people on Earth (far less in common than English colonists had with the Mother England) that it doesn't make sense to try to govern them from afar; all they have to do is take the phone off the hook, and >poof< they're self-governing.

During the colonial period, before self-sufficiency, I would expect that the colony would remain beholden to the governance of whatever entity put it there and continues to supply it; certainly the UN (for instance) shouldn't get to say a thing about what happens at a colony that was put together (and paid for) by a single nation or a coalition; the nation or coalition that's footing the bills has the right to control the colony.

After self-sufficiency, the economic balance shifts to one of trade; it behooves both sides to play well together.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 27, 2010, 05:27:00 PM
Quote
The idea of 4 people, though... probably 2 women and 2 men, creeps me out.  The inbreeding of the children would be inhumane.  I can see 4 people up there for 5 years or so to do some preliminary ground work to build a base, then another group to come and augment them.  I can't see a colony surviving in a genetically healthy state (not to mention the civil rights issues of scientifically arranged marriages), with less than at least 50 people.

You don't need to send more people to avoid inbreeding. Send sperm (and possibly egg) samples from several hundred parents.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: lupinus on October 27, 2010, 05:55:57 PM
You don't need to send more people to avoid inbreeding. Send sperm
An interesting solution....
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: 41magsnub on October 27, 2010, 05:58:20 PM
You don't need to send more people to avoid inbreeding. Send sperm (and possibly egg) samples from several hundred parents.

That is a technically correct answer but totally buzz kills a few fantasies.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: S. Williamson on October 27, 2010, 06:03:12 PM
I would sign up in a heartbeat.  =)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Jim147 on October 27, 2010, 09:36:43 PM
Can I go alone? People have really brought out my love for them today.

jim
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MillCreek on October 27, 2010, 10:40:49 PM
I would sign up in a heartbeat.  =)

+ Eleventy.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: stevelyn on October 27, 2010, 10:49:33 PM
You could keep the genetic lines separate until the third generation, the grandchildren.  They should have plenty of time to bring in fresh blood before inbreeding becomes necessary.

Although, could you imagine growing up entirely on Mars and never knowing more than a handful of people?


Seemed to work out okay after the garden of Eden and The Flood....................just sayin'.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 27, 2010, 11:05:45 PM
Isn't there also some form of 'controlled inbreeding', which prevents the more horrific genetic malformations that inbreeding causes?
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: RoadKingLarry on October 27, 2010, 11:24:05 PM
1 way may not be be necessary. The plasma drive has real money behind it, and they already have plans for what amounts to an orbital tow truck. Apparently there is money to be made retrieving dead satellites.

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/support/researching/aspl/index.html (http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/support/researching/aspl/index.html)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket)


I've always thought it could be a profitable venture IF you already have a space vehicle capable of making the trip multiple times and it is capable of collecting space junk. Of course some of that stuff has some kind of nuclear power source so an extra bit of caution with that.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: erictank on October 27, 2010, 11:32:47 PM
babies are resource hogs

sterilize the travelers

Kind of defeats the whole purpose of "colonization", doesn't it? ???
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Jim147 on October 27, 2010, 11:36:15 PM

I've always thought it could be a profitable venture IF you already have a space vehicle capable of making the trip multiple times and it is capable of collecting space junk. Of course some of that stuff has some kind of nuclear power source so an extra bit of caution with that.

Sounds like time to call ole Andy out of retirement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvage_1

I thought it was a neat show when it came out. But like most shows I watched on the whole three channels we got at the time, it was cancelled.

jim
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Perd Hapley on October 27, 2010, 11:37:17 PM
The idea of 4 people, though... probably 2 women and 2 men, creeps me out.  The inbreeding of the children would be inhumane. 

Arkansas in space. Each day brings us closer and closer to Firefly.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: TommyGunn on October 27, 2010, 11:38:35 PM
Isn't there also some form of 'controlled inbreeding', which prevents the more horrific genetic malformations that inbreeding causes?

You mean like Nancy Pelosi??? :angel: [popcorn] >:D
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 27, 2010, 11:47:02 PM
You don't need to send more people to avoid inbreeding. Send sperm.

Wow...

The self-restraint to wait long enough to build up enough pressure to reach Mars... I don't think I'd be able to do that.  =|

And all the technical gear needed for the precise aim, that might kill the moment. Although if you've waited that long, you may not care. (shrug)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Viking on October 28, 2010, 11:20:35 AM
Those dang Martian rebels!   :police:
Loonies strike at Earth! :police:
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 28, 2010, 11:23:13 AM
Question:  Do you think planets should remain colonies of their respective nations, of earth as a whole, or if they can support it, entirely separate and sovereign worlds.

Just how would the supposed governing authority back on Terra enforce its rules?

One of the colonists smuggles a few MJ seeds and starts growing pot in the hydroponic garden... what are the feds going to do: spend a few billion to build another spaceship and then send a swat team out there...?    :P


As far as genetic variety, there are a number of different options, if you think "outside the box [book]" ...  two couples, that's four different genetic combinations, you know  ;)

Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on October 28, 2010, 12:12:01 PM
Just how would the supposed governing authority back on Terra enforce its rules?
By withholding the vital supply shipments that are necessary for the survival of the colonists.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: S. Williamson on October 28, 2010, 12:12:53 PM
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimgs.xkcd.com%2Fcomics%2Fdate.png&hash=de12bd217f2433cdcdcb0a967351ee0b79f964bd)
http://xkcd.com/634/  =D
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: taurusowner on October 28, 2010, 01:52:26 PM
Just how would the supposed governing authority back on Terra enforce its rules?

One of the colonists smuggles a few MJ seeds and starts growing pot in the hydroponic garden... what are the feds going to do: spend a few billion to build another spaceship and then send a swat team out there...?    :P


As far as genetic variety, there are a number of different options, if you think "outside the box [book]" ...  two couples, that's four different genetic combinations, you know  ;)



I used planetS in my question for a reason.  I'm not talking about 60 years from now when we have maybe 1 ship capable of getting to Mars.  I am talking about centuries from now when getting from Earth to Mars takes a few days, and there are many more colonized planets than that.  And before anyone says "that will never happen, it's impossible", well human flight was "impossible" for millennia, until the day it wasn't.  So I don't really buy the "it's never going to happen" line.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 28, 2010, 02:05:39 PM
By withholding the vital supply shipments that are necessary for the survival of the colonists.

That's real humane  ;/

Even if I were younger, I don't think I'd want to go without being self-sufficient from the start.  Congress (or whoever) might just cut off funding  :O


I'm not even sure anything like this will ever happen, because there is little or no benefit to the funders who are left behind on Terra.  Do you suppose people are willing to spend billions/trillions just to make sure the human race survives after this solar system is long dead and cold ???


If some billionaire happened to fund the whole thing "just for humanity", do you think the powers that be would even let it happen?  =|
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: 230RN on October 28, 2010, 04:10:44 PM
Quote
If some billionaire happened to fund the whole thing "just for humanity", do you think the powers that be would even let it happen?
 

Would need a heck of a permit system.  Imagine the "Need" question some States have, as in "Why do you need a concealed carry permit?"



"Why do you need to become a Colonist?  __________________________________________________________"

Imagine the answers.   
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Regolith on October 28, 2010, 04:52:31 PM
  "Why do you need to become a Colonist?  __________________________________________________________"

"Because of questions like this."
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AZRedhawk44 on October 28, 2010, 06:43:12 PM

If some billionaire happened to fund the whole thing "just for humanity", do you think the powers that be would even let it happen?  =|

Hard to stop it, short of shooting down the launch vehicle in its first 10-15 minutes of flight.

Rocket launch from US air space?  Well, the US could stop it I suppose.  But, if that command has to climb a command chain, the craft would already be 100 miles up before a "shoot" command came down.  It would be 150 miles up before a US Destroyer with Aegis or similar tech could lock on and launch a kinetic interceptor.

(Assuming that the Air Force's new "micro-shuttle" isn't a god-rod system that can intercept from above... and even if it were, it's on a 2 hour orbit pattern and unlikely to be in position for the 10-15 minutes it takes to achieve orbit.)

By the time a ground-based missile could intercept, the craft would be beyond high earth orbit and on its way.  The interceptor missile would run out of fuel in low earth orbit, relying on inertia and pre-plotted trajectory to impact the target.  A slight course deviation, and the missile is off target.

That's assuming that the US would shoot DOWN a projectile/rocket going up that shows no signs of being a danger to anyone on the ground.

I doubt the Russians or the Chinese could knock down such a craft, unless the Russians have already put weaponized satellites in space during the height of the Cold War.

If someone held a press conference 1 minute before launch, and 1000 miles away from the secret launch site (ideally a hollowed out volcano), declaring intent to launch and the purpose, I doubt the US Government would have the information assets to stop it before ignition, or chutzpah to forcibly shoot it down in light of the starry-eyed dreams of the billionaire philanthropist whom the public would love so much.

Look how much everyone loves Burt Rutan.

Multiply that by a million-fold if someone funded the next Columbus expedition to the Great Unknown.

You know that Columbus guy, right?  Suppose his name will ever die in history?

THAT is your billionaire motivation.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 28, 2010, 06:50:47 PM
By withholding the vital supply shipments that are necessary for the survival of the colonists.

The thing is,  a "self-sustaining" colony isn't one that can make all of its own stuff, it's one that can make or trade for all of the necessary stuff.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: 230RN on October 28, 2010, 07:32:17 PM
Besides, think of all the technological innovations concomitant with the effort.

Quote
You know that Columbus guy, right?  Suppose his name will ever die in history?

THAT is your billionaire motivation.

What, to be named Queen Isabella?
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Jim147 on October 28, 2010, 08:57:33 PM
Quote
If someone held a press conference 1 minute before launch, and 1000 miles away from the secret launch site (ideally a hollowed out volcano), declaring intent to launch and the purpose, I doubt the US Government would have the information assets to stop it before ignition, or chutzpah to forcibly shoot it down in light of the starry-eyed dreams of the billionaire philanthropist whom the public would love so much.

I think the problem with that would be getting all the technology put together without someone along the way saying "Aren't you a little young to be a rocket scientist?" Multiply this by our post 911 keeping very close tabs on certain things.

Now if the billionaire built this on a deserted island and got all the parts from other country's,it might... well I think some guys in black might still come knocking.

jim
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Perd Hapley on October 28, 2010, 09:01:54 PM
Look how much everyone loves Burt Rutan.

Who's Burt Rutan?
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Strings on October 28, 2010, 09:13:52 PM
>ikea flat-box all-you-need-is-an-allen-wrench housing modules<

Which would result in the Mars Colony being without shelter, as it's a guarantee that everyone would forget said allen wrench... ;)

And I'm not sure the government COULD stop it, if a private individual with enough resources (Bill Gates level of resources) decided to make it happen. "Resources" being funding and connections...
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on October 28, 2010, 09:16:37 PM
The thing is,  a "self-sustaining" colony isn't one that can make all of its own stuff, it's one that can make or trade for all of the necessary stuff.
Know of any good intergalactic trading posts?   ;)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 28, 2010, 09:59:48 PM
The thing is,  a "self-sustaining" colony isn't one that can make all of its own stuff, it's one that can make or trade for all of the necessary stuff.

The next fifty years that brings us either AI, or expert-systems that are good enough to be indistinguishable from AI, functional self-assembling nanotech, commoditized stereo-lithography for durable goods, and robust tailored biotech that's producible from a small self-contained lab will all be a force multiplier for labor and enable the colony to produce difficult things like drugs and complex machine parts.

Honestly, when you leverage these technologies here on Earth, there really isn't much that one needs in space, assuming Malthusian/population problems aren't in play. The only thing that space has for us of true value is other places to place humanity so our metaphorical eggs aren't all in one basket.

Because those same technologies that will be of immense use in making space colonies self-sustaining, may well also wipe us out.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AZRedhawk44 on October 29, 2010, 03:27:44 AM
Who's Burt Rutan?

http://www.ted.com/talks/burt_rutan_sees_the_future_of_space.html

Scaled Composites.

Designer of WhiteKnight/Spaceship1 and WhiteKnight2/Spaceship2.

Partner with Sir Richard Branson for Virgin Galactic.

Branson is the $$$, Rutan is the idea behind the $$$.  The "Karl Rove" of the privatized space flight movement.

Looks a bit like Conway Twitty.   [tinfoil]
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: slugcatcher on October 29, 2010, 10:20:02 AM
The government could very well stop it with the stroke of a pen. New federal regulation, buying off other governments with nice trade agreements, loans, etc. There will be no privately funded colonizations if the government doesn't want it to happen. I'm all for getting off our butts and into the great unknown. I'm just saying it would be easy for the government to stop. There would never be a need to shoot down anything as the program would never get that far if it was not allowed.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: roo_ster on October 29, 2010, 11:26:06 AM

Quote from: Headless Thompson Gunner
By withholding the vital supply shipments that are necessary for the survival of the colonists.

That's real humane  ;/

But, very practical.  Power is amoral. 

OTOH, if the colonists are dependent on a gov't & associated  taxpayers form Earth, there is a moral argument to be made that they get a say in what their tax dollars pay for.  If they would prefer the Martian Colony to organize more along the lines of Green Acres than Hair, they ought to have the authority.  Don't like it? Get off their teat.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 29, 2010, 11:31:58 AM
The government could very well stop it with the stroke of a pen. New federal regulation, buying off other governments with nice trade agreements, loans, etc. There will be no privately funded colonizations if the government doesn't want it to happen. I'm all for getting off our butts and into the great unknown. I'm just saying it would be easy for the government to stop. There would never be a need to shoot down anything as the program would never get that far if it was not allowed.


In the "billionaire with a vision" scenario this is postulated under, the political leverage and money spent to grease the wheels would be almost trivially easy as compared to the actual engineering and technical challenges.

Hell, you wouldn't even need any direct money or bribery applied. Just the promised business dangled out before all your aerospace subs would get them pounding on their representatives and senators right quick for you without lifting a finger, save having your engineers write up some RFP's.

The only real problem I see is if environmental groups get on your case about the launches themselves, or any nuclear power assets you're also lifting. Hell, they protest the launch of every RTG that we send out into deep space. OTOH, they haven't gotten anywhere yet, and the captured public imagination of a colonization effort should make the PR battle pretty one-sided.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 29, 2010, 01:20:17 PM
That's real humane  ;/


But, very practical.  Power is amoral.


Not even slightly.

Two kinds of Mars colonies can exist.

Either a symbolic one with half a dozen scientists running experiments - like an ISS, but far away. Obviously such a thing seceding is ridiculous  - but such a thing is a waste of money anyway.

Or a real one, which would only be viable if the colonists supply trade goods of some kind back to Earth. In which case ending trade with them would be massively counteproductive.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 29, 2010, 02:09:57 PM
Not even slightly.

Two kinds of Mars colonies can exist.

Either a symbolic one with half a dozen scientists running experiments - like an ISS, but far away. Obviously such a thing seceding is ridiculous  - but such a thing is a waste of money anyway.

Or a real one, which would only be viable if the colonists supply trade goods of some kind back to Earth. In which case ending trade with them would be massively counteproductive.

Unlikely.

Unless there's truly unique compounds that exist on Mars that can't be synthesized on Earth without great difficulty, or perhaps a higher proportion of heavy metals and rare earths, there's nothing that can't be gotten cheaper from asteroids or other places that have smaller gravity wells, or simply be synthesized here at home.

I'm not saying there won't be pseudo-economic make-work that will provide a prima-facie justification for colonization, but there won't be anything as valuable as simply expanding the human footprint.

I can't completely rule out that such colonization won't invent, or discover completely new resources or products we've never even considered before, however, one can do simple math based on energy availability and the rough distribution of the periodic table of elements in any given solar system body, and unless you're engaging in mega-engineering where no one planet has sufficient resources anymore, it's almost always going to be cheaper to produce it at home, or collect the elements elsewhere.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 29, 2010, 03:09:35 PM
Then it won't be done.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: lupinus on October 29, 2010, 03:50:39 PM
Unlikely.

Unless there's truly unique compounds that exist on Mars that can't be synthesized on Earth without great difficulty, or perhaps a higher proportion of heavy metals and rare earths, there's nothing that can't be gotten cheaper from asteroids or other places that have smaller gravity wells, or simply be synthesized here at home.

I'm not saying there won't be pseudo-economic make-work that will provide a prima-facie justification for colonization, but there won't be anything as valuable as simply expanding the human footprint.

I can't completely rule out that such colonization won't invent, or discover completely new resources or products we've never even considered before, however, one can do simple math based on energy availability and the rough distribution of the periodic table of elements in any given solar system body, and unless you're engaging in mega-engineering where no one planet has sufficient resources anymore, it's almost always going to be cheaper to produce it at home, or collect the elements elsewhere.
The same could have been said about the America's. Setting up an expedition was ridiculously expensive, let alone keeping the colony afloat.

Sure, it was cheaper and easier to just walk out into the English country side and chop down a tree or get some coal. Only problem was they'd stripped much of their own national resources to the point that it was cheaper to sail it all the way back from America. Same thing with Spanish gold, rum, sugar, and todays doodads shipped all the way from China.

A point is reached where easily accessible resources far away become more economically viable then dwindling resources at home. Once the right combination of propulsion to get the colonists there and the materials home, and large enough deposits of a material here at home that is dwindling, it will be economically viable. The propulsion system probably isn't more then a few decades away, there only needs to be the right resources found that we need here.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: lee n. field on October 29, 2010, 04:22:35 PM
http://www.ted.com/talks/burt_rutan_sees_the_future_of_space.html

Scaled Composites.

Designer of WhiteKnight/Spaceship1 and WhiteKnight2/Spaceship2.

Partner with Sir Richard Branson for Virgin Galactic.

Branson is the $$$, Rutan is the idea behind the $$$.  The "Karl Rove" of the privatized space flight movement.

Looks a bit like Conway Twitty.   [tinfoil]

You missed the coolest Rutan & Co. bit of all, Voyager (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutan_Voyager)

(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Fd%2Fd3%2FVoyager_aircraft.jpg%2F766px-Voyager_aircraft.jpg&hash=442b82586085c76fe83bd032b7b8877592bd0f5a)
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 29, 2010, 04:32:31 PM
Then it won't be done.

I'm thinking that's why we've gone nowhere since the Apollo missions, despite our much greater technical knowledge.  =(

And besides Earth imaging, communication/navigation, and the nascent space tourism industry there's not much going on.

OTOH, the "space dividend" is very real. The semi-conductor/integrated circuit was invented by Fairchild to make the weight/size requirements for the LEM and C/SM's navigation computer, which once an orbit about the moon would be out of sight from Earth, and unable to get ground-based computerized course info.

You can argue pretty easily someone probably would have come up with the IC anyway, but it DID actually come from the "space race".

So you might be able to come up with convincing "make work" resources or production on other planets, asteroids, or space habitats. "We'll go, and new industries will arise" etc. Even if it's a false economy, if a self sustaining population on Mars does take hold, it'll be worth it for the survival aspects alone.

And also, heavy automation built from local resources might look completely different in a post-scarcity economy. People will be able to do things just on a whim.

The same could have been said about the America's. Setting up an expedition was ridiculously expensive, let alone keeping the colony afloat.

Sure, it was cheaper and easier to just walk out into the English country side and chop down a tree or get some coal. Only problem was they'd stripped much of their own national resources to the point that it was cheaper to sail it all the way back from America. Same thing with Spanish gold, rum, sugar, and todays doodads shipped all the way from China.

A point is reached where easily accessible resources far away become more economically viable then dwindling resources at home. Once the right combination of propulsion to get the colonists there and the materials home, and large enough deposits of a material here at home that is dwindling, it will be economically viable. The propulsion system probably isn't more then a few decades away, there only needs to be the right resources found that we need here.

There were very real economic incentives to exploit and colonize the "New World". Originally with Columbus, the premise was false, but they had the desire to open a westward trade route to Asia for silk, spices & what-have-you without having to put up with the Middle East. With the timber, you're correct much of Europe was de-forested by then, but the difference in scale between a wind-powered Atlantic voyage for timber, and mining on Mars... is well, economically speaking, you'd be better off planting trees in England and waiting.

After that it was Gold for the Spanish, Fur for the French, and Virgin timber for European shipbuilders.

And even with several orders of magnitude of efficiency in propulsion technology, metals from Mars will not compete with any from Earth. It'll be cheaper to do ocean bottom mining of manganese nodules, direct ocean filtration for metals, and mining our own landfills.

If you try to scale the early European exploration missions and colonizations in the Americas to a Mars mission that will settle a dozen people there or whatever, it's kind of like building a 100 mile long wooden ship, and putting the King's palace and 1000 servants/sailors on it. There's a ton of economic value and force multipliers in our modern technical/industrial society, and it's still a huge undertaking.

And if you get into real Malthusian problems with the population on Earth like you're building a geostationary habitat ring, or ginormous Arcologies/mega-cities etc. Then Asteroid Lunar/mining is probably still more economical than Martian. For an asteroid mine, a robotic mining probe can land, assemble a solar-powered mass driver, and then shovel some of the asteroid's own mass into the driver, and propel it to an accessible Earth orbit. Then you can use large Mylar parabolic mirrors to smelt ore at the focus, and then use mass-drivers again to drop the metals to earth, pre-formed into re-entry aerobraking shapes for splashdown into the ocean for recovery.

In space economy, planets are the low-rent district with high transport costs. The Moon and Asteroids, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn are the primo industrial real-estate.

http://xkcd.com/681/
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MicroBalrog on October 29, 2010, 05:02:17 PM
To do these things we need lifters.

Very, very big lifters.

Think Sea Dragon or Orion.



I don't think political support for these will materialize any time soon.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 29, 2010, 05:11:51 PM
To do these things we need lifters.

Very, very big lifters.

Think Sea Dragon or Orion.



I don't think political support for these will materialize any time soon.

Space bridge.

We have the Fullerene's and carbon nano-tubes. It's now just a matter of engineering. The fundamental discovery has been made.

Add a conductive layer to it, and you have what amounts to an enormous rotor being swung through the "stator" of the Earth's magnetic field. It might even be self-powering. (Don't tell the Greens the Earth will lose a trillionth of a second a year in lost angular momentum though.)

ETA: There's also the HUGE benefit of the "counterweight station" that's extended out past the balance-point at GEO, payloads or ships released from there will have a "crack the whip" effect, and can be slung to every insertion point in the Solar System once every 24 hours with a rather large amount of "free" Delta-V.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas on October 29, 2010, 08:33:58 PM
Um... why do people insist on going to Mars when the moon is so much closer and cheaper to get to?
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Nitrogen on October 29, 2010, 08:51:39 PM
I'd go.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 29, 2010, 10:42:20 PM
Um... why do people insist on going to Mars when the moon is so much closer and cheaper to get to?

I'm certainly a "moon first" guy as well.

Lots of what we learn there (save for aerobraking) will apply to Mars and other bodies in the solar system. There's more airless worlds than ones with some atmosphere we can actually land on.

And Helium-3, lots of oxygen is bound in the rocks too. Main problem is that the Moon is short on Hydrogen and Carbon. Although there seems to be enough ice hidden in the rocks and in permanently shadowed crater bottoms to make it worth extracting vs. shipping it up from earth.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: roo_ster on October 29, 2010, 11:17:04 PM
Then it won't be done.

Do not make the marxist mistake and tie all motivations to economics.

Such an enterprise would be akin to a major war in scope, cost, etc.  Contrary to marx & many of those who place economics at the center of geopolitics, there are other motivations: pride, resentment, power-seeking, etc. 
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: taurusowner on October 30, 2010, 04:15:32 AM
I really can't bring myself to think space elevators are a good idea.   It may be, but the idea of having hundreds of miles of cable hovering in the air/in space that could break at any moment just sits wrong with me.
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 30, 2010, 11:22:26 AM
I really can't bring myself to think space elevators are a good idea.   It may be, but the idea of having hundreds of miles of cable hovering in the air/in space that could break at any moment just sits wrong with me.

Well, if it broke, the risks are all generally in atmosphere and low orbit. (Terrorisim and space junk) It can be designed so the majority would fly off into space. The counterweight station out past the balance point at GEO could be made a bit longer for a slight upward bias out away from Earth, so if there was a break it would go up instead of down.

Any parts around the LEO level that still might be going down would also probably be falling with enough velocity would also just burn up.
 
Also, you're nervous about it in comparison to a rocket which could go off course, or explode, and land debris anywhere? At least the space elevator would fall in a relatively predictable pattern based on the Earth's rotation and the height at which it broke.

And of course the equator is where these will be placed, and it's convenient the Earth is largely Ocean at that latitude save for a big chunk of Africa.

Also, there are designs that would be very fault tolerant. http://www.tethers.com/Hoytether.html

Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 30, 2010, 07:38:27 PM
There's not going to be a launch to Mars.

It would probably take several years and dozens or hundreds of launches to build the "ship" in earth orbit.

Even so, getting there really isn't the problem.  The big challenge would be sustaining life long term in a basically closed environment.  You would have to recycle everything - and I do mean everything ;)

Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: AJ Dual on October 30, 2010, 11:16:05 PM
Quote
author=Tallpine link=topic=26681.msg521480#msg521480 date=1288481907

Even so, getting there really isn't the problem.  The big challenge would be sustaining life long term in a basically closed environment.  You would have to recycle everything - and I do mean everything ;)



"Human Centipede" wasn't really a horror film. It was really a NASA documentary on long-term life support systems...   :laugh:
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: mtnbkr on October 31, 2010, 07:04:28 AM
*whack*

Bad AJ!  Bad!  Go sit in the corner. :D

Chris
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: MechAg94 on October 31, 2010, 11:29:53 AM
There's not going to be a launch to Mars.

It would probably take several years and dozens or hundreds of launches to build the "ship" in earth orbit.

Even so, getting there really isn't the problem.  The big challenge would be sustaining life long term in a basically closed environment.  You would have to recycle everything - and I do mean everything ;)


Or find new ways to supplement using nearby materials. 
Title: Re: 1-way planetary colonization
Post by: Tallpine on October 31, 2010, 02:05:33 PM
Or find new ways to supplement using nearby materials. 

Water and oxygen  =|