Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: MicroBalrog on May 28, 2011, 12:31:48 AM
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This week, the FBI estimated that the number of violent crimes decreased 5.5 percent from 2009 to 2010, including a 4.4 percent decrease in the number of murders. Because the U.S. population increased during the period, the figures imply that the total violent crime per capita rate and the murder rate decreased more than six percent and five percent, respectively. Based upon the preliminary data, it appears that violent crime fell to a 37-year low and murder fell to a 47-year low. The FBI will report final figures for 2010 later this year.
http://www.nraila.org/Legislation/Federal/Read.aspx?id=6832
Micro Sez: The doomsayers. They are wrong. Again!
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Why don't we just ban guns altogether, so the crime rate drops to zero?
But thanks for bringing that up. Excellent news.
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Where the gun ownership stats?
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Obama did it! All by himself! He has lead us to safety! All hail Obama!!!11!
=D
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Where the gun ownership stats?
You haven't heard about the huge increase in gun sales the last couple years ???
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What Tallpine said.
Just do a search of the forum. There are plenty of discussions about the sky rocketing sales in 2008 & 9; and the corresponding ammo shortages. Its so well known that folks on here just a assume everybody knows about it.
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Obama did it! All by himself! He has lead us to safety! All hail Obama!!!11!
=D
The irony is that is close to the truth....
Afterall, gun sales went through the roof because of him.
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Gun Ownership Skyrockets, While Violent Crime Drops…Again
Meanwhile, in the last state in the union with no legal bearing of arms, Illinois city among nation’s most dangerous (http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_localchi/20110526/ts_yblog_localchi/illinois-city-among-nations-most-dangerous?bouchon=602).
9. Rockford, Ill.
Population: 156,180
Violent Crime Per 1,000: 14.52010
Murders: 20
Median Income: $36,990 (26% below national average)
Unemployment Rate: 13.3% (4.3% above national average)
Y'all be careful, next Sock Monkey Madness (http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q=sock+monkey+festival&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&pq=sock%20monkey%20festival&xhr=t&q=sock+monkey+madness&cp=14&pf=p&sclient=psy&safe=off&client=ubuntu&hs=M9i&channel=fs&source=hp&aq=0&aqi=&aql=&oq=sock+monkey+ma&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=a34f7f1872f21971&biw=1016&bih=430) you attend.
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Meanwhile, in the last state in the union with no legal bearing of arms, Illinois city among nation’s most dangerous (http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_localchi/20110526/ts_yblog_localchi/illinois-city-among-nations-most-dangerous?bouchon=602).
Y'all be careful, next Sock Monkey Madness (http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q=sock+monkey+festival&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&pq=sock%20monkey%20festival&xhr=t&q=sock+monkey+madness&cp=14&pf=p&sclient=psy&safe=off&client=ubuntu&hs=M9i&channel=fs&source=hp&aq=0&aqi=&aql=&oq=sock+monkey+ma&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=a34f7f1872f21971&biw=1016&bih=430) you attend.
Well, crap. Thanks. ;/ I'm glad we survived, but this does raise some concerns about sartorial simian safety.
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Meanwhile, in the last state in the union with no legal bearing of arms, Illinois city among nation’s most dangerous (http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_localchi/20110526/ts_yblog_localchi/illinois-city-among-nations-most-dangerous?bouchon=602).
Y'all be careful, next Sock Monkey Madness (http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q=sock+monkey+festival&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&pq=sock%20monkey%20festival&xhr=t&q=sock+monkey+madness&cp=14&pf=p&sclient=psy&safe=off&client=ubuntu&hs=M9i&channel=fs&source=hp&aq=0&aqi=&aql=&oq=sock+monkey+ma&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=a34f7f1872f21971&biw=1016&bih=430) you attend.
At the same time, what are the self defense laws like there? Just carrying gun is meaningless if you can't use them.
I hate to bring up my state, but here the self defense laws are pretty decent and, on average, prosecutors and juries aren't looking to hang people who defend themselves.
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This week, the FBI estimated that the number of violent crimes decreased 5.5 percent from 2009 to 2010, including a 4.4 percent decrease in the number of murders. Because the U.S. population increased during the period, the figures imply that the total violent crime per capita rate and the murder rate decreased more than six percent and five percent, respectively. Based upon the preliminary data, it appears that violent crime fell to a 37-year low and murder fell to a 47-year low. The FBI will report final figures for 2010 later this year.
http://www.nraila.org/Legislation/Federal/Read.aspx?id=6832
Micro Sez: The doomsayers. They are wrong. Again!
I hate to be the naysayer, but as always, correlation does not equal causation. Violent crime statistics, with the occasional hiccup here and there, have been steadily declining year in year out since 1991, so by that logic you could just as easily point out that violent crime dropped all during the AWB.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#1990s_decline
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm?NoVariables=Y&CFID=27318257&CFTOKEN=26350925
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I hate to be the naysayer, but as always, correlation does not equal causation. Violent crime statistics, with the occasional hiccup here and there, have been steadily declining year in year out since 1991, so by that logic you could just as easily point out that violent crime dropped all during the AWB.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#1990s_decline
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm?NoVariables=Y&CFID=27318257&CFTOKEN=26350925
One could also point out that the shall issue CCW movement got going about 1991. =)
At the very least, more_guns != more_crime
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I hate to be the naysayer, but as always, correlation does not equal causation. Violent crime statistics, with the occasional hiccup here and there, have been steadily declining year in year out since 1991, so by that logic you could just as easily point out that violent crime dropped all during the AWB.
You ain't nay-saying anybody here. The article in the OP never claims causation, nor has anyone in the thread. The AWB correlation wouldn't seem to hold up, since the stats have crime decreasing before it took effect.
Tallpine is correct.
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At the same time, what are the self defense laws like there? Just carrying gun is meaningless if you can't use them.
I hate to bring up my state, but here the self defense laws are pretty decent and, on average, prosecutors and juries aren't looking to hang people who defend themselves.
Could be worse:
Justifiable Use of Force - IL Statute (http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=19429).
a) A person is justified in the use of force against another when and to the extent that he reasonably believes that such conduct is necessary to defend himself or another against such other's imminent use of unlawful force. However, he is justified in the use of force which is intended or likely to cause death or great bodily harm only if he reasonably believes that such force is necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily harm to himself or another, or the commission of a forcible felony.
This part here's good:
(b - In no case shall any act involving the use of force justified under this Section give rise to any claim or liability brought by or on behalf of any person acting within the definition of "aggressor" set forth in Section 7 4 of this Article, or the estate, spouse, or other family member of such a person, against the person or estate of the person using such justified force, unless the use of force involves willful or wanton misconduct.
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so by that logic you could just as easily point out that violent crime dropped all during the AWB.
I could, but this would not explain why the drop occured in both 'gun' and 'non-gun' violence.
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the great obama has done went and safed the worrl. who knew, the 5yos were right. >:D
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LA4xEDw7mY)
:laugh: :angel:
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One could also point out that the shall issue CCW movement got going about 1991. =)
At the very least, more_guns != more_crime
Oh, really? "More guns=more crime??" Not from what I've researched .... ;)
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Oh, really? "More guns=more crime??" Not from what I've researched .... ;)
!= is C/C++ language syntax for "not equal to" ;)
Equivalent to <>
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Oh. I need to reprogram my brain ....hold on ...*there!* I think I get it now.
[tinfoil] Sorry. Didn't know that. My bad. ;)
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One could also point out that the shall issue CCW movement got going about 1991. =)
At the very least, more_guns != more_crime
I agree entirely, but in a complex system there are many things that contribute. More prsonal gun ownership and ccw laws are assuredly factors. I'm also quite sure that there are contribuging factors that many of us here would dismiss out of hand as assuredly as the antis would dismiss our thoughts.
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I agree entirely, but in a complex system there are many things that contribute. More prsonal gun ownership and ccw laws are assuredly factors. I'm also quite sure that there are contribuging factors that many of us here would dismiss out of hand as assuredly as the antis would dismiss our thoughts.
Arrest rates? Unemployment figures? What?
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Arrest rates? Unemployment figures? What?
Depends on who you ask. For a fairly extreme example, here's a theory that many would take issue with. Me, I don't buy all the conclusions myself, but it's one more factor that can be considered as possibly contributing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect
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Depends on who you ask. For a fairly extreme example, here's a theory that many would take issue with. Me, I don't buy all the conclusions myself, but it's one more factor that can be considered as possibly contributing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect
Beware Freakonomics theories. They are too cute by half and suffer from Malcolm Gladwell Disorder.
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Previously linked data, in chart form, and massaged a bit.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-g6H9jcMB064/TeLtQkoiYtI/AAAAAAAAA0c/9X7XfUoX31E/s800/crime_rates_1960_baseline.png)
Uses 1960 crime rates as baseline.
Violent crimes are still 2.75X more common per capita than in 1960. Down from a high of 4.75X in 1990.
Murder rates near 1960 levels.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AeJqdWt6p3M/TeLtQ09ZreI/AAAAAAAAA0g/Oy904kmRQzM/s800/violent_crime_rate_annual_delta.png)
Even though the data was given at non-standard intervals, I processed it to get annual deltas (slope, derivative) of the violent crime rate.
This shows that the the annual delta was falling in 1990 or 1991, before the AWB. If the AWB caused subsequent violent crime rates to fall, you'd expect a steeper downward slope after 1994. The data shows that the delta actually lessens (negative slope gets less steep, derivative of the derivative). So, if folks claim that the crime rate deltas after the 1994 AWB are due to the AWB, they need to own the fact that it decreased the precipitous slide in violent crime rates after 1994.
Here is a handy analogy:
* Absolute number of crimes ~ Distance [miles, m] ~ x
* Crime rate ~ Velocity [miles per hour, m/h] ~ dx/t
* Crime rate delta ~ Acceleration [miles per hour per hour, (m/h)/h] ~ second derivative
HTH
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Not to complicate matters, but the decrease in murder rate could be because of vastly improved shock/trauma treatment. Reckon what the overall rate of GSW's did during this time?
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Depends on who you ask. For a fairly extreme example, here's a theory that many would take issue with. Me, I don't buy all the conclusions myself, but it's one more factor that can be considered as possibly contributing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect
I don't know why you think that folks here would dismiss that out of hand. For those of us who oppose abortion, its effect on crime statistics shouldn't matter.
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Previously linked data, in chart form, and massaged a bit.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-g6H9jcMB064/TeLtQkoiYtI/AAAAAAAAA0c/9X7XfUoX31E/s800/crime_rates_1960_baseline.png)
Uses 1960 crime rates as baseline.
Violent crimes are still 2.75X more common per capita than in 1960. Down from a high of 4.75X in 1990.
Hmmm... murder is only slightly up while violent crime has increased by significantly more.
I wonder how much of that is a function of the progress of trauma medicine such that wounds that would previously have been fatal are not now? Thus, there is less murder, but more violent crime because more potential murder victims are saved by emergency medicine and surgery.
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don't forget more violent crime, because gang members that would have died, are also being saved. =|
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Re: Gun Ownership Skyrockets, While Violent Crime Drops…Again
What about teh "blood in the streets"? Sarah Brady and her friends promised me blood in the streets. I am disappoint.
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Hmmm... murder is only slightly up while violent crime has increased by significantly more.
Murder is not 'slightly up'. It's about on the same level in 2010 as it is in 1960, in that chart. I am not sure where it gets 2010 data.
Also a non-graphical demonstration is friend:
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
The murder rate in 1960 was 5.1, and 5.0 in 2009. 2010 data is not released yet.
If - which I hope it is the case - a 10% drop in murder rates occured in 2009 as the preliminary findings state, we'd find us a murder rate of merely 4.5 per 100,000 - approaching European murder rates faster and faster. (The average murder rate in Europe is 5.4, being buoyed up by Baltic countries).
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(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-g6H9jcMB064/TeLtQkoiYtI/AAAAAAAAA0c/9X7XfUoX31E/s800/crime_rates_1960_baseline.png)
Uses 1960 crime rates as baseline.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AeJqdWt6p3M/TeLtQ09ZreI/AAAAAAAAA0g/Oy904kmRQzM/s800/violent_crime_rate_annual_delta.png)
One could also point out that crime increased as liberal thought & politics became more mainstream and decreased as conservative/libertarian thought and politics became more prominent....food for thought.....
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Murder is not 'slightly up'. It's about on the same level in 2010 as it is in 1960, in that chart. I am not sure where it gets 2010 data.
Also a non-graphical demonstration is friend:
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
The murder rate in 1960 was 5.1, and 5.0 in 2009. 2010 data is not released yet.
If - which I hope it is the case - a 10% drop in murder rates occured in 2009 as the preliminary findings state, we'd find us a murder rate of merely 4.5 per 100,000 - approaching European murder rates faster and faster. (The average murder rate in Europe is 5.4, being buoyed up by Baltic countries).
Ok. That doesn't really address my musing. All it does is change my post to:
Hmmm... murder is only slightly up down while violent crime has increased by a significantly moreamount.
I wonder how much of that is a function of the progress of trauma medicine such that wounds that would previously have been fatal are not now? Thus, there is less murder, but more violent crime because more potential murder victims are saved by emergency medicine and surgery.