Post by: Brad Johnson on May 02, 2006, 10:54:01 AM
It works out like this...
Hybrid avg MPG - (selected arbitrarily)
Lifetime avg fuel cost per gallon - $2.69
Avg mileage for replacement battery pack - 90,000
Avg cost for replacement battery pack - $8,000
Total actual consumption (90K @ 40 mpg) - 2250 gallons
Total actual fuel cost (2250 gallons @ 2.69 per gallon) - $6,052.50 (6.73 cents per mile)
Total cost including replacement battery pack - $14,052.50 (15.61 cents per mile)
Equivalent fuel volume ($14,052.50 total cost @ 2.69 per gallon) - 5223.98 gallons
Equivalent fuel mileage (5223.98 gallons consumed over 90K miles) - 17.23 miles per gallon.
Brad
Post by: Azrael256 on May 02, 2006, 11:15:40 AM
Post by: mtnbkr on May 02, 2006, 11:19:46 AM
That said, a good thing about hybrids is that they get people to change their thinking about how a car should be designed. As the tech improves and people no longer think they need a V8 to drive around town, overall economy will improve.
For the time being, you're probably better off buying a car with a 4cyl engine and making sure your tires are properly inflated. My 4cyl 5spd Camry gets 35mpg on the interstate with two passengers plus the driver at 75mph (did that twice this weekend). Even though it's a 4cyl, it has no problem maintaining that speed or accelerating to pass other cars. That's not bad considering it can carry 5 people and a ton of luggage.
Chris
Post by: client32 on May 02, 2006, 11:55:04 AM
All info from Honda Website
Honda Civic Sedan
$14,760
30/40
Honda Civic Hybrid Sedan
$22,150
49/51
Given:
250,000 miles
$3.00 per gallon
Car: Hybrid Sedan Sedan
Highway
Gallons used 4,902 6,250
$ on gas 14,706 18,750
Total cost of car 36,856 33,510
City
Gallons used 5,102 8,333.3
$ on gas 15,306 25,000
Total cost of car 37,456 39,760
Don't forget that this is if you run the car out to 250,000 miles.
If I screwed up the math, let me know.
Actual quote from the hone civic hybrid web page:
Hybrid owners are known for their smart thinking
Post by: Jamisjockey on May 02, 2006, 12:09:01 PM
I drive 22 miles each way to work, 5 days a week. At $2.70 a gallon I'll spend just $936 on commuting in a year.
Post by: zahc on May 02, 2006, 12:44:51 PM
I chatted with a faculty member with one of the hybrids on the way to class. A whopping 45-55mpg. I don't thinks so.
Post by: crt360 on May 02, 2006, 12:53:17 PM
Don't overlook the smug problem.
Post by: mtnbkr on May 02, 2006, 12:55:24 PM
Quote
If I screwed up the math, let me know.
Unless Honda's batteries are much better than the Toyota ones, you've left out at least one battery replacement. That's an additional $8k on the hybrid side. The accepted wisdom is a new battery every 100k or so.Chris
Post by: client32 on May 02, 2006, 01:22:16 PM
Quote from: mtnbkr
Quote
If I screwed up the math, let me know.
Unless Honda's batteries are much better than the Toyota ones, you've left out at least one battery replacement. That's an additional $8k on the hybrid side. The accepted wisdom is a new battery every 100k or so.Chris
I did this in a college class when one of the students mentioned wanting a hybrid for the gas milage. It was an eye opener for most of the sheep .... I mean students. I then asked the initial student why he/she wanted a hybrid, the response was environment .... More fun.
Post by: mtnbkr on May 02, 2006, 01:26:02 PM
Quote
I left it out on purpose. I should have put another given that all maintance cost would be zero for this.
Fair enough.Chris
Post by: Northwoods on May 02, 2006, 08:11:28 PM
Quote
Hybrid avg MPG - (selected arbitrarily)
Lifetime avg fuel cost per gallon - $2.69
Avg mileage for replacement battery pack - 90,000
Avg cost for replacement battery pack - $8,000
Total actual consumption (90K @ 40 mpg) - 2250 gallons
Total actual fuel cost (2250 gallons @ 2.69 per gallon) - $6,052.50 (6.73 cents per mile)
Total cost including replacement battery pack - $14,052.50 (15.61 cents per mile)
Equivalent fuel volume ($14,052.50 total cost @ 2.69 per gallon) - 5223.98 gallons
Equivalent fuel mileage (5223.98 gallons consumed over 90K miles) - 17.23 miles per gallon.
Bump that average fule milage up to 50, and extend the battery life to 100k (more in line with published figures, even though yours are more realistic) and the "equivalent fuel milage" is 20.1mpg. Considering that virtually any non-hybrid example of the same (economy class) cars are rated for a minimum of probably 25mpg in the city and it doesn't take a genius to see the fallacy of the hybrid from an economic standpoint. Even factoring in the (IIRC) $3500 tax credit that is (or was) available that still only gives you 27.2mpg equiv. Keep the car to 250k (so add another battery replacement) and the number goes to 25.9mpg. Of course, if you only keep the car for 75k, you can get the tax credit, the fuel savings and pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else. Lots of ways to make it look better (or worse) depending on the assumptions you make. Hmmm, maybe the cost comparisons aren't so simple. Still an interesting thought exercise.
Lifetime avg fuel cost per gallon - $2.69
Avg mileage for replacement battery pack - 90,000
Avg cost for replacement battery pack - $8,000
Total actual consumption (90K @ 40 mpg) - 2250 gallons
Total actual fuel cost (2250 gallons @ 2.69 per gallon) - $6,052.50 (6.73 cents per mile)
Total cost including replacement battery pack - $14,052.50 (15.61 cents per mile)
Equivalent fuel volume ($14,052.50 total cost @ 2.69 per gallon) - 5223.98 gallons
Equivalent fuel mileage (5223.98 gallons consumed over 90K miles) - 17.23 miles per gallon.
Post by: RaggedClaws on May 03, 2006, 04:07:10 AM
Raising the cost of gasoline to $5.00 per gallon, it would take 8 years (100K miles) to break even. That's not figuring in the cost of a new battery, which would be incurred before the break-even point in either scenario, and that is assuming the MPG figures at www.fueleconomy.gov are realistic.
I didn't figure in the tax credit though.
Post by: The Rabbi on May 03, 2006, 05:26:06 AM
I am not disagreeing that the hybrids are a feel-good solution, just asking about other scenarios.
Post by: RaggedClaws on May 03, 2006, 05:44:26 AM
Again, this does not figure in any tax advantages to buying a hybrid vehicle, nor any difference in maintenance costs (including the cost of a new battery).
By the way, my calculations assumed 50/50 highway/city driving since that's about what I do and it was simple to calculate
Post by: Brad Johnson on May 03, 2006, 07:17:06 AM
Brad
Post by: Iain on May 03, 2006, 08:29:08 AM
We discussed this on THR the other day, I was surprised to read that diesels aren't that common over your way. A friend has got 47mpg averaged over 40,000 miles out of his.
Post by: mtnbkr on May 03, 2006, 08:32:12 AM
Chris
Post by: Iain on May 03, 2006, 08:45:33 AM
Post by: Harold Tuttle on May 03, 2006, 08:55:05 AM
VW is taking it as a loss leader to gain US market share
Post by: roo_ster on May 03, 2006, 08:55:59 AM
Quote
Of course, if you only keep the car for 75k, you can get the tax credit, the fuel savings and pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else.
IMO, trading off a hybrid at 75K miles will not "...pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else," I'd bet. The owner will likely eat that cost in reduced resale value of the hybrid. High-mile (70K+) hybrids will be worth bupkis, while their non-hybrid equivalents still have a goodly portion of their value. I'm sure we have all been astonished at how a 100K+ Honda Accord still commands serious $$$. That is because they likley have another 150K miles left before a major, costly repair.To give some perspective, the most cherry 1998 Honda Civic 4 dr EX with 80K miles (10k/year) commands* $6510, while an average example commands $5300. If that car was a hybrid, it would have an $8000 sword of Damocles hanging over it that will fall at any time. How much would YOU pay for such a vehicle? Likely, its only value would be to a "U-Pull-It" parts yard. Say, $1000. You can add $5510 ($6510-$1000) to the cost of owning that hybrid (in lost resale/trade-in value). You never really know the true cost of your vehicle until you resell it or trade it in.
If you really want to save $$$ on fuel, buy a a diesel.
* kbb.com. I know that to get accurate market value, you gotta shop the car in your particular market, but this is close enough for our purposes.
Post by: Headless Thompson Gunner on May 04, 2006, 06:29:09 AM
The extra cost of ownership associated with the hybrid is, in their estimations, the price you pay for "doing the right thing."
It's more about social acceptance and mutual self-gratification than any tangible or practical improvement.
Post by: mtnbkr on May 04, 2006, 06:39:25 AM
Chris
Post by: richyoung on May 04, 2006, 06:49:29 AM
Post by: RaggedClaws on May 04, 2006, 06:50:24 AM
http://taxes.about.com/od/deductionscredits/a/hybridtaxcredit.htm
Page 3 of the article lists the actual one-time credit for various models. It is interesting to note that this credit phases itself out once a manufacturer has sold a certain number of hybrid cars (60,000).
The Toyota Highlander V6 4WD Hybrid has a maximum credit of $2600. Assuming I can take full advantage of this (there are alot of limitations), then at best it will lower the upfront price differential from $6590 to $3990.
With gas at $6 per gallon and my other assumptions the same, it would take over 4 years to break even (50K miles). With gas at $3 per gallon, it would take over 8 years to break even (100K miles). In the latter case, the battery would have to be replaced before the break-even point.
Post by: mtnbkr on May 04, 2006, 07:02:53 AM
Quote from: richyoung
The "full benefit" of millionso f tones of acid-laden battery packs to be disposed of. Think they don't what your dead flashlight batteries in the garbage? Where are you gona put that dead hybrid battery pack?
I was thinking more along the lines of batteries that aren't polution nightmares and that last upwards of 200k miles before a replacement is necessary. I was also thinking about hybrids or similar vehicles that could get much greater gas mileage than current models. In other words, I was talking about what continuous refinement of the technology could bring us in the future. Just like the car industry in it's infancy, we'll have fits and starts and even dead end technology. However, just like the auto industry went from the Stanley Steamer to Honda Accords, we'll go from current hybrid technology to something that works so well we'll wonder why anyone would use something else.Chris
Post by: richyoung on May 04, 2006, 07:38:15 AM
Quote from: mtnbkr
Quote from: richyoung
The "full benefit" of millionso f tones of acid-laden battery packs to be disposed of. Think they don't what your dead flashlight batteries in the garbage? Where are you gona put that dead hybrid battery pack?
I was thinking more along the lines of batteries that aren't polution nightmares and that last upwards of 200k miles before a replacement is necessary. I was also thinking about hybrids or similar vehicles that could get much greater gas mileage than current models. In other words, I was talking about what continuous refinement of the technology could bring us in the future. Just like the car industry in it's infancy, we'll have fits and starts and even dead end technology. However, just like the auto industry went from the Stanley Steamer to Honda Accords, we'll go from current hybrid technology to something that works so well we'll wonder why anyone would use something else.Chris
Post by: Justin on May 04, 2006, 08:19:05 AM
I'm skeptical about hybrids that run on batteries, but lately I've read of advances in nanotech-based "ultracapacitors" that supposedly store much more energy than traditional capicitors, and I have to wonder if in the future they would be able to use those instead of batteries.
Post by: Gewehr98 on March 16, 2007, 05:38:09 PM
I turned and asked the salesman what the deal was. He said the Hybrid Silverado was built as a contractor's truck, and the hybrid wasn't intended for fuel savings. The Hybrid Silverado's battery pack was intended to power the 115vac tools on a job site by means of the built-in inverter and the 115vac outlets in the cab and box.
Okeydokey.
I noticed the other day when I was pumping E-85 into my S-10, that the diesel pump next to the E-85 said "Not for 2007 or newer model year diesel vehicles" Evidently, the low-sulfur diesel at that pump must really raise hell with diesels built this year. Is it an injector thing, or is it something else that'll cause harm to a diesel? Mechanical-injection diesels run on low-sulfur french-fry oil once it's warmed up to 150 degrees, so I'm kinda curious...
Post by: Northwoods on March 16, 2007, 08:11:39 PM
Post by: wmenorr67 on March 17, 2007, 02:52:38 AM
Post by: Cromlech on March 17, 2007, 03:10:56 AM
They just need to figure out how to run vehicles on hydrogen. Pull out the garden hose and fill the tank up with good ole H2O and drive away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzJZJjo9MNA
Post by: Paddy on March 17, 2007, 06:00:34 AM
Post by: Art Eatman on March 17, 2007, 08:07:41 PM
http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editorial/print_item.asp?NewsID=188
There's the pollution thing, too...
Art
Post by: Firethorn on March 17, 2007, 08:56:04 PM
If you don't have the miles, a pure electric makes more sense in stop&go, short ranged travel where you don't want local pollution. Electricity's about a third of the price of gasoline, and that's for a PHEV, which is relativly fuel efficient over normal cars.
For long distance highway travel, a diesel makes the most sense.
Post by: Gewehr98 on March 17, 2007, 09:39:05 PM
Quote
Electricity's about a third of the price of gasoline, and that's for a PHEV, which is relativly fuel efficient over normal cars.
Sounds neat, but (and that's a very big BUT...)
What's the environmental footprint of that electric vehicle, in sum total, as Art's link discusses with respect to the Toyota Prius vs. Hummer? I'm talking about the electrical generating plant on the other end of that EV's battery charger, is it coal, natural gas, bunker crude, nuclear, geothermal, wind turbine, or solar photovoltaic?
People buying hybrids and EVs are indeed smug until somebody points out the rest of the story.
Post by: TMM on March 18, 2007, 07:09:00 AM
~tmm
Post by: Ben on March 18, 2007, 07:28:52 AM
Quote
I'm talking about the electrical generating plant on the other end of that EV's battery charger, is it coal, natural gas, bunker crude, nuclear, geothermal, wind turbine, or solar photovoltaic?
This is my big pet peeve with people using electric "for the environment". Sure, if your batteries are charging off nuclear or solar or similar, you're using clean power and contributing to a cleaner envorinment. If you're charging off a coal source, all you're doing is participating in the NIMBY philosophy.
Post by: Firethorn on March 18, 2007, 07:33:46 AM
What's the environmental footprint of that electric vehicle, in sum total, as Art's link discusses with respect to the Toyota Prius vs. Hummer? I'm talking about the electrical generating plant on the other end of that EV's battery charger, is it coal, natural gas, bunker crude, nuclear, geothermal, wind turbine, or solar photovoltaic?
First, I'm mostly an advocate of 'one or the other'. IE you switch to full-electric or switch to bio-diesel/ethanol. This is mostly to reduce reliance on oil. If you choose the electric option and need the extra range occasionally, that's time to rent a hydrocarbon fueled vehicle. Either that or there's an intriguing idea involving what's essentially a lawnmower-powered generator in a trailor. The idea's simple: You hook up a trailer with a hydrocarbon generator in the back. Along with the hitch you look up some power and control leads. The generator churns along, producing just enough power to keep you at highway speeds, or maybe even a little lower. After all, you should have a hundred miles or so in your batteries. Oversize the trailor a bit to give you more storage space for the trip. Heck, I've even heard of one that uses a sort of one-gear automatic transmission that acts as a 'pusher'. When you hit the brakes, regenerative braking puts the power from the pusher into the batteries. At a lower speed the pusher shuts off.
As the very length of power sources you posted point out, it's a very complex issue. Even battery replacement gets complicated, as a hybrid or EV battery is almost certainly going to be recycled, which limits it's enviromental impact. Then there's battery chemistry to consider; the big three are lead-acid; NiMH, and LiIon. They're listed in order of increasing cost and density, though there are projections that have the LiIon eventually being cheaper than NiMH, as Lithium is a more common metal than Nickel. As for power sources, well, partially due to the decreased overall power requirements for an electric vehicle because of the increased efficiency and the greater efficiency of a modern* power plant at controlling pollution, an EV is, at least in operation, less polluting than an average car. This will get better if we ever stop building coal plants(if oil keeps getting more expensive, the few oil plants in the USA will shut down), in favor of nuclear/wind/solar.
Please also note that I posted conditionals where the vehicles are being used in areas that are especially pollution sensitive; Lots of vehicles and people in small areas like a city. While nickel production at the one plant may be a disaster; that does not mean that it HAS to be a disaster. It's kinda like why many warehouses have electric forklifts. It's not because they're more economical or enviromentally clean overall; it's because the fumes from a hydrocarbon motor is more hazardous there in the warehouse than the extra waste elsewhere.
Oh, and I may be getting the threads confused, but I've been reading about people talking about the evolution of electric/hybrids to be even more efficient. I have to point out that while hybrid cars may indeed be a fairly new idea, all the technologies used in them are VERY mature. Electric motors-out for at least the last hundred years, and used in industry ranging from microscopic to 'crush puny semi into pancake' huge. The size range needed for an electric car is a known science. Batteries are the same story, NiMH has been out since the 1980's, LiIon went commercial in 1991. There is still development going on, but that's gradual, not breakthrough stuff.
*Yes, I know many power plants can't be considered modern.
Post by: drewtam on March 18, 2007, 01:52:37 PM
I'm a little surprised by that, diesel is more expensive than petrol here but diesel cars are selling in ever increasing numbers. This friend drives a Vauxhall Vectra with a 2.2 engine, it's not a 5l V8 but it's a moderately big car.
Iain,
Our gasoline is around $2.60/gal (=$0.65/liter)
Diesel is $2.90/gal (=$0.725/lt)
Our gas isn't taxed so high as to make diesel siginificantly cheaper (beside the fuel efficiency). So the economics favor gasoline for anything except 2 situations: extremely larger mileage in the life of a vehicle (over the road trucks); and machines where weight is an advantage and the price of the engines does not add significantly to the priceof the machine besides fuel cost(constuction and mining machinery).
Drew
Post by: drewtam on March 18, 2007, 02:01:10 PM
I noticed the other day when I was pumping E-85 into my S-10, that the diesel pump next to the E-85 said "Not for 2007 or newer model year diesel vehicles" Evidently, the low-sulfur diesel at that pump must really raise hell with diesels built this year. Is it an injector thing, or is it something else that'll cause harm to a diesel? Mechanical-injection diesels run on low-sulfur french-fry oil once it's warmed up to 150 degrees, so I'm kinda curious...
First there is LSD = Low sulfer diesel and ULSD = ultra low sulfer diesel.
The ULSD is nesessary for the Diesel Particulate Filters and other aftertreatments to work right. The sulfer will foul up the systems.
The problem with removing the sulfer is the process also removes the polarized molecules that maintain the lubricity of the fuel. The sulfer itself is not the lubricant. Biodiesels ar very high in lubricity, so cutting in 5 or 10% adds all the lubricatiopn back that your fuel system needs for long life.
Drew
Post by: richyoung on March 19, 2007, 05:27:11 AM
What happens to the calculations if you bump the gas price to $6/gal, which is where it is in Germany right now?
I am not disagreeing that the hybrids are a feel-good solution, just asking about other scenarios.
I am not disagreeing that the hybrids are a feel-good solution, just asking about other scenarios.
I hate to burst your bubble, but GASOLINE itself only costs slightly more in Germany than in the U.S. However, the socialist, redistributive TAXES on the gasoline are quite higher there. Ask any U.S. military oiver in Germany what they pay for gas- they don;t have to pay the taxes at the post gas stations...