Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Jamie B on March 18, 2012, 04:08:28 PM
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http://news.yahoo.com/obama-fire-advisers-over-gas-prices-romney-163718487.html
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Sunday called for President Barack Obama to fire three top administration officials as he sought to harness voter anger over rising gas prices ahead of nominating contests in Puerto Rico and Illinois.
Mitt needs to STFU. The POTUS alone does not control gasoline pump prices.
These things do:
The international oil supply
The international oil demand
Natural disasters
Weather (heating oil consumption)
Natural Gas (production, transmission, distribution, pricing)
Governmental regulation (additives, taxes, leases, etc)
Commodity traders (users) bidding on future delivery contracts
Commodity traders (speculators) betting on future crude prices
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http://news.yahoo.com/obama-fire-advisers-over-gas-prices-romney-163718487.html
Mitt needs to STFU. The POTUS alone does not control gasoline pump prices.
These things do:
The international oil supply
The international oil demand
Natural disasters
Weather (heating oil consumption)
Natural Gas (production, transmission, distribution, pricing)
Governmental regulation (additives, taxes, leases, etc)
Commodity traders (users) bidding on future delivery contracts
Commodity traders (speculators) betting on future crude prices
Corrected. The Balkanization of gasoline is due partly to rules (specifically NOT regulation), and the domestic production of both oil and gas is pretty reliant on permitting by both Interior and EPA. Last I checked, the EPA and Interior were executive branch controlled.
As for "speculation"--commodity futures serve an important role in price stabilization, and "betting" the price will go up, is a safe bet, as that would mean demand continues to outstrip supply--(see domestic permitting above). Without commodity futures to soften price factors, it would be extremely difficult to price any product appropriately, as costs could shift abruptly. And the likely result would be conservative (ie higher) product prices to accommodate sharp moves.
As for heating oil, that pretty much shows one of the more common misconceptions. Heating oil and other heavier fractions have little effect on gasoline prices...the dominant fractionation effect is the increased demand of gasoline, diesel and kerosene during the summer months due to increased travel and shipping. It is very nonacost effective to produce the lighter hydrocarbons from the heavier, when lighter sweeter crude is available (which is why in the summer, light sweet peaks, but in the winter, the heavier crudes have increased demand).
As for natural gas affecting oil price, well other than the fact that the correlation is near zero (increasing gas production has bottomed gas prices, while oil has risen) due to their demands being effectively independent (oil is effectively not used for power generation, and gas is effectively not used as a transport fuel), if there WERE an effect, it would be negative--higher gas production would if anything, lower oil prices (and thus gasoline prices).
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http://news.yahoo.com/obama-fire-advisers-over-gas-prices-romney-163718487.html
Mitt needs to STFU. The POTUS alone does not control gasoline pump prices.
No, but he does have an effect.
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Corrected. The Balkanization of gasoline is due partly to rules (specifically NOT regulation), and the domestic production of both oil and gas is pretty reliant on permitting by both Interior and EPA. Last I checked, the EPA and Interior were executive branch controlled.
As I understand it, EPA is mandating seasonal and regional blending of gasoline; I've heard claims on various TV shows that this mess adds up to fifty cents a gallon to the cost, as well as having the potential to disrupt the supply.
And then there's the requirement (paid for by ethanol lobbyists) to dilute gas with ". . . up to 10% ethanol . . . " which also increases the price of food as well as gasoline, while decreasing fuel economy.
Obama's recent veto of the pipeline, his longstanding opposition to drilling in ANWR, and closure of many offshore drilling sites all drive speculators to drive up the cost of oil.
POTUS is not responsible for all the price increases we've seen, but he certainly has had some influence on prices - and not in a good way.
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King Dollar Will Cut Oil Prices By Larry Kudlow
A stronger dollar is key. The Joint Economic Committee just put out a study showing that a 10 to 15 percent appreciation of the greenback to pre-recession levels (before the Fed launched its massive dollar-creation, pump-priming campaign) would lower gasoline prices by 43 cents. So if the Treasury and the Federal Reserve strengthened the value of the dollar, oil and gasoline prices would decline.
It's an excellent idea. The best one out there. A return to King Dollar would boost consumer real incomes, attract capital from all over the world and grow the economy at a faster rate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/03/17/king_dollar_will_cut_oil_prices_113516.html
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It's all rampant speculation....
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2011/pi20110419_786652.htm
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Amazing how only 4 years ago high fuel prices were due to Bush/Cheney/Halliburton getting rich on the backs of the working poor.
I may be out to lunch but I have a vague memory of Obama making a statement that he thought $5.00 a gallon gas was a good price for it.
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From what I have heard indirectly, Obama's interior department head has been working hard to add new permit rules and requirements, multiple enviro impact studies, etc, etc. for off shore drilling ever since he got in there. I have also heard they are playing whatever games they can with permits to delay them and increase costs and time and effort to get permits.
This all makes it very difficult to plan ahead and adds a lot of uncertainty in future drilling/production.
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It's all rampant speculation....
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2011/pi20110419_786652.htm
Excellent article - thank you.
I have noticed in the last couple of years that there is less elasticity between crude prices and pump prices.
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Speculators wouldn't buy oil futures (demand for oil futures drives up their price, and since commodity usage is driven by replacement rather than purchase price, this drives up current prices) if there wasn't a trend toward higher prices to follow. One buys futures if one thinks the price will increase (thereby locking in a delivery price and enabling a profit on the futures contract if the price increases, after which either the commodity or the contract can be sold). The trend is seen in this case as inexorable due to bth the fed policy, (enabled by the treasury policies) and rising demand with lower supply increases seen IN THE FUTURE. Since oil contracts can and are long term priced, increasing FUTURE production or even increasing the probability of future production through increased permitting, drilling, etc decreases the potential price increases, and results in lower demand for high (current price) futures. The net effect is a reduction in replacement cost, and a reduction in current product prices. This multi-level linkage is hinted at in that article (why monetary policy has an effect, as if then year dollars are worth less due to higher liquidity and base money, current dollar lock-in on a contract is easy profit from a hedge perspective) but rarely addressed in popular "blame someone" media.
Does "speculation" have an effect, of course, I say that directly, however, it's a very useful tool (for actual product users and sellers) to mitigate fluctuations, and as its based on PREDICTIONS of supply/demand/international politics and monEtary policy, it is easily influenced by the cabinet departments, which was my whole point.
Making a profit off "betting" that a commodity price will go up is not the cause...it is the effect. If, hypothetically, a new "Saudi level" oil resource was discovered, futures prices (and current product prices) would IMMEDIATELY drop, even if the actual supply impact were years away, simply because it would depress the demand for higher priced long term options, as it is likely the future supply/demand ratio would be increased,myielding a lower point.
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Amazing how only 4 years ago high fuel prices were due to Bush/Cheney/Halliburton getting rich on the backs of the working poor.
Yeah, the Democrats told us for 8 years that it was all Bush's fault. ;/
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I have no doubt that the speculators looking at the slow pace at which the Obama administration is moving on opening up new sources of energy is helping to jack up current energy costs. Ultimately though it is the inflationary money policy of the Fed that is causing the high energy costs. Gas doesn't cost more, our money has just been devalued that much. It may sound like semantics but it is not, there is a critical difference between the two views.
Do you know why oil and prices are moving sharply higher? Some blame the oil companies, charging they are manipulating prices. Others cite U.S. sanctions on Iran and the threat of a military encounter that would disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East.
Speculators, too are blamed for ostensibly bidding up the price of oil. In the political arena, President Obama is taking credit for increased domestic oil production even as his critics point out the slow pace of drilling permits issued by his Administration soon will hamper additional increases in the U.S. oil production.
Yet, the basic reason for higher energy prices is being overlooked, even though it is right before our eyes: Oil prices are up because the value of the dollar is down.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/03/19/the-rising-price-of-the-falling-dollar/
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All kinds of factors lead to higher gas prices. Weak dollar, speculation, weather, peak oil <snicker>, lack of development of US oil reserves, ad nausem, et al, etc.
The bottom line reality of the matter is you cannot have global government and an energy independent US. They simply can not coexist. One has to lose and right now an energy independent is losing.
I fully expect Obama to take it in the shorts with increasing energy prices. It will take time for the Stupid Party to make hay out of the situation but it is moving along nicely for now. Why even Obama's energy czar has backed off his stated desire for the US to have $8 to $10 / gallon gas. The fact of the matter is the US economy seizes up when gas approaches $5 / gallon.
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Gas doesn't cost more, our money has just been devalued that much.
To illustrate in more solid terms, in 1975, a gallon of gas cost about .00265 oz of gold. Right now, it costs .002213 oz at local prices.
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To illustrate in more solid terms, in 1975, a gallon of gas cost about .00265 oz of gold. Right now, it costs .002213 oz at local prices.
I wonder what the numbers are in terms of hours of skilled labor.
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Romney thinks this is all about bad advice??? ???
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Of course he does.
Does Romney strike you as someone philosophically different from Obama?
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Of course he does.
Does Romney strike you as someone philosophically different from Obama?
And I find myself completely in agreement with Micro here.
I'm unable to force myself to vote for this "lesser of two evils."
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And I find myself completely in agreement with Micro here.
I'm unable to force myself to vote for this "lesser of two evils."
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.disclose.tv%2Ffiles%2Fphotos%2F772c1c73d4ffe88L.png&hash=d37bb5e5b705e420e3c15fcbf2b8cdda395ec287)
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Of course he does.
Does Romney strike you as someone philosophically different from Obama?
To put it in a word: YES.
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To put it in a word: YES.
Would you put it in a few more words?....
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How many words do you want? [popcorn]
In an ideal world, we'd have an ideal candidate to put in office and eliminate Obama.
Wait.
In an "ideal world" there would be no Obama.
Romney isn't a second coming of Ronaldus Maximus Reagan, but he is a better candidate than Obama. Romney has run businesses and has that going for him. What has Obama done....even a lemonade stand as a kid?
Dislike Romney all you want. I'm not here to sell you guys anything but it would be nice if you disliked him, if it would be for something that was actually true.
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I wonder what the numbers are in terms of hours of skilled labor.
If I look at the prices/wages since I graduated from HS in 1972, then "minimum wage" should be about $16.00/hr right now :(
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How many words do you want? [popcorn]
In an ideal world, we'd have an ideal candidate to put in office and eliminate Obama.
Wait.
In an "ideal world" there would be no Obama.
Romney isn't a second coming of Ronaldus Maximus Reagan, but he is a better candidate than Obama. Romney has run businesses and has that going for him. What has Obama done....even a lemonade stand as a kid?
Dislike Romney all you want. I'm not here to sell you guys anything but it would be nice if you disliked him, if it would be for something that was actually true.
Warren Buffett has been far more successful than Romney in much the same industry.
I won't vote for him, either.
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I couldn't care less that you wouldn't vote for Buffet ......
As long as you won't vote for Obama! >:D
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If I look at the prices/wages since I graduated from HS in 1972, then "minimum wage" should be about $16.00/hr right now :(
Minimum wage is one of the more significant causes of unemployment and poverty. Before minimum wage laws there was effectively no structural unemployment.
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I'll say it again: Romney, manifest warts and all, buys us time and gives us some wiggle room while we figure how to stop the juggernaut and turn it around. A second Obama term guarantees, in my view, the most tumultuous social and political environment conceivable. Unfortunately, either way the nation is plausibly ungovernable.
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Minimum wage is one of the more significant causes of unemployment and poverty. Before minimum wage laws there was effectively no structural unemployment.
I'm not promoting the minimum wage :facepalm:
I'm simply stating that the mininum wage 40 years ago had a lot more buying power than the minimum wage now.
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I'm not promoting the minimum wage :facepalm:
I'm simply stating that the mininum wage 40 years ago had a lot more buying power than the minimum wage now.
I figured as much, but couldn't determine if that was meant as evidence to support a conclusion that there is major inflation, that the min. Wage should be increased, or what.
Sorry.
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I'll say it again: Romney, manifest warts and all, buys us time and gives us some wiggle room while we figure how to stop the juggernaut and turn it around. A second Obama term guarantees, in my view, the most tumultuous social and political environment conceivable. Unfortunately, either way the nation is plausibly ungovernable.
Buys time for what?.....changing the name back to RomneyCare?.....
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I may be out to lunch but I have a vague memory of Obama making a statement that he thought $5.00 a gallon gas was a good price for it.
He and his ilk would love it if gas was $10 a gallon.
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Buys time for what?.....changing the name back to RomneyCare?.....
To see if there's any chance of avoiding a terminal separation.
Look, we can hit the wall in November or we can hit it a bit later. You may be prepared; not everyone is from what I see. I went to a Tea Party meeting last where a video detailing what we are dealing with was shown ("Agenda," by Curtis Bowers). At the end people were asked what we could do about the grim scenario. The answer: Prayer.
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I'll say it again: Romney, manifest warts and all, buys us time and gives us some wiggle room while we figure how to stop the juggernaut and turn it around.
We already know it. It is a question of will.
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Yes, will it is. Will and clarity. And how much of either is there at this point? The GOP is largely missing in action, perhaps complicit, and I think many of us feel left out of the game.