Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: makattak on July 17, 2014, 11:53:39 AM
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28354856
Yes, yes. "It's too early to say what happened" and blah blah blah.
The rebels in Ukraine just shot down a passenger plane with 295 aboard. (I don't believe either the Russian government or the Ukrainian to be so stupid as to do this.)
This ought to bring retribution from the entire rest of the world. I'm guessing it will bring some harsh words and... a nasty letter from our government.
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Breaking news. Reports are that it was shot down.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-jet-reportedly-crashes-in-ukraine/ (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-jet-reportedly-crashes-in-ukraine/)
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Too early to tell for sure, but it has to have been a mis-identified target. The airliner was transiting, not landing or taking off from Ukraine and presumably was at cruising altitude.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28354856
Yes, yes. "It's too early to say what happened" and blah blah blah.
The rebels in Ukraine just shot down a passenger plane with 295 aboard. (I don't believe either the Russian government or the Ukrainian to be so stupid as to do this.)
This ought to bring retribution from the entire rest of the world. I'm guessing it will bring some harsh words and... a nasty letter from our government.
Maskirovka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maskirovka)
Probably not a .gov entity, but the KGB has done shadier things.
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Too early to tell for sure, but it has to have been a mis-identified target. The airliner was transiting, not landing or taking off from Ukraine the area and presumably was at cruising altitude.
Early reports state that it was at 35,000 feet.
Like the Korean passenger jet shot down in Russia (I believe? looked it up) that had to have been 3 minutes of just torture for the passengers. So very sad.
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Merged topics.
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It could have been done by anyone in the region.
1. The Ukrainian government has shot down civilian airliners in peacetime. We know they're not too smart for this stuff. We also know they're facing Russian Air Force aircraft (yesterday a Russian SU-27 ostensibly attacked a Ukrainian SU-25).
2. It obviously could have been the rebels.
3. It could have obviously been the Russians (they've attacked Ukrainian aircraft yesterday, why couldn't they do it today?)
4. It could have als obeen an accident.
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It could have been done by anyone in the region.
1. The Ukrainian government has shot down civilian airliners in peacetime. We know they're not too smart for this stuff. We also know they're facing Russian Air Force aircraft (yesterday a Russian SU-27 ostensibly attacked a Ukrainian SU-25).
2. It obviously could have been the rebels.
3. It could have obviously been the Russians (they've attacked Ukrainian aircraft yesterday, why couldn't they do it today?)
4. It could have als obeen an accident.
It could have, yes. The chances of it being any but #2 are comparatively slight, in my opinion.
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The news I have seen said it was a surface to air missile. How small do they make those that can reach 32,000 feet? I could be wrong, but I didn't think man portable anti-air could go that high.
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The news I have seen said it was a surface to air missile. How small do they make those that can reach 32,000 feet? I could be wrong, but I didn't think man portable anti-air could go that high.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
(i.e. it wasn't man-portable that did it)
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The news I have seen said it was a surface to air missile. How small do they make those that can reach 32,000 feet? I could be wrong, but I didn't think man portable anti-air could go that high.
Looks like the minimum to do it would be an SA-6, and I just can't see the full launch needs of those being terribly discreet given modern satellite and radar capability.
Honestly, I'm surprised Boeing and Airbus haven't started offering some basic detection and countermeasures as a normal option for commercial jets that will have to transit areas like that. Obviously the capability exists for most of their aircraft, since so many have been repurposed or minimally redesigned for military and diplomatic transport.
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There now exists the possibility that while perhaps not an "accident", it might have been a mistake due to ineptness. Untrained people getting access to complex weapons systems and pressing the wrong buttons can have unintended consequences. Recall the video a few months ago of people pushing the wrong buttons in the abandoned tank in Ukraine.
A separatist group tweeted a boast at about the same time the plane went down claiming to have downed a transport plane, but the tweet was quickly deleted. The self-titled "Self-defence forces of the Donetsk People's Republic" boasted in June 29 press release of having taken control of Buk missile defense systems. The Buk, or SA-11 missile launchers, have a range of up to 72,000 feet.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-passenger-jet-shot-down-over-ukraine/
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*raises hand* why do they have to transit areas like that? Doesn't commercial aircraft generally avoid troubled airspace in the first place?
Personally, I'm not getting on a plane that's flying over a place where people are highly likely to shoot stuff at the plane. Just seems not so bright.
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Confirmed it was taken down by a SAM, evidence indicates either separatists or one of their Russian "advisers" fired it.
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-150-ukrainian-troops-describe-grad-rocket-attack-from-russia/
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*raises hand* why do they have to transit areas like that? Doesn't commercial aircraft generally avoid troubled airspace in the first place?
Personally, I'm not getting on a plane that's flying over a place where people are highly likely to shoot stuff at the plane. Just seems not so bright.
I looked at a map while Fox was blowharding on this subject. Reason in the first: skip it to the north and your transiting Afghanistan and Pakistan. South; Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Damned if you do, Damned if you don't.
Reason in the second: (more likely I feel) Roll the dice. How many jetliners get shot down? I mean they are all sqwaking transponders. Weigh that against howevermany thousand pounds of JetA it takes to go around whatever reginal hotspot is flaring this week. $$$$. And given how many little brush wars there are in the world, any real international airline is flying over a couple every day.
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http://lifenews.ru/watch-live
Livestream, no idea what they're saying but occasional graphic video of the wreckage.
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Video purportedly of the crash, at long distance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hbAirCuNnA&feature=youtu.be
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Obama was informed about by Putin. They were talking on the phone about the latest US sanctions, when Putin was informed and told Obama. Per Jennifer Griffen on Fox News reporting from the Pentagon. =(
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Obama was informed about by Putin. They were talking on the phone about the latest US sanctions, when Putin was informed and told Obama. Per Jennifer Griffen on Fox News reporting from the Pentagon. =(
At least he didn't hear about it in the "same media reports" we did...
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Obama was informed about by Putin. They were talking on the phone about the latest US sanctions, when Putin was informed and told Obama. Per Jennifer Griffen on Fox News reporting from the Pentagon.
Well, somebody was going to tell him about it sooner or later. At least this way, it wasn't interrupting his golf game.
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So what is Obama going to do when Russians/Seperatists shoot down a US airliner or an airliner containing several Americans? I'm betting such thoughts makes Putin giggle like a little girl.
Elections do indeed have consequences.
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So what is Obama going to do when Russians/Seperatists shoot down a US airliner or an airliner containing several Americans? I'm betting such thoughts makes Putin giggle like a little girl.
Guess we'll find out. This plane had 23 Americans on it.
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So what is Obama going to do when Russians/Seperatists shoot down a US airliner or an airliner containing several Americans? I'm betting such thoughts makes Putin giggle like a little girl.
Elections do indeed have consequences.
After changing his trousers, he will make a televised address and explain, in increasingly less credible or appealing platitudes, to all us rubes in flyover country that the world is a complex and challenging environment which calls for deliberation, and that he is adding another dozen-odd individuals to the existing sanctions list.
ETA: Per Nick's post, what primetime viewing will be interrupted tonight?
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So what is Obama going to do when Russians/Seperatists shoot down a US airliner or an airliner containing several Americans? I'm betting such thoughts makes Putin giggle like a little girl.
Elections do indeed have consequences.
What will any US politicians do? I'm obviously no fan of Obama, but what will any Republicans do, other than bluster and perhaps pass sanctions that have no real meaning to Russia? It will be hard to prove (and may not be the case) that Russia had any direct involvement. It would be difficult to make a case for direct military response to Russia over something a separatist group likely did, or will get the blame for.
The US as it stands today, does not have the testicles to poke the sleeping Russian bear, let alone the Russian bear of today, which is kind of awake and grumpy. Even if we did, we are two nuclear powers. That's a dangerous game.
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What will any US politicians do? I'm obviously no fan of Obama, but what will any Republicans do, other than bluster and perhaps pass sanctions that have no real meaning to Russia? It will be hard to prove (and may not be the case) that Russia had any direct involvement. It would be difficult to make a case for direct military response to Russia over something a separatist group likely did, or will get the blame for.
The US as it stands today, does not have the testicles to poke the sleeping Russian bear, let alone the Russian bear of today, which is kind of awake and grumpy. Even if we did, we are two nuclear powers. That's a dangerous game.
What woukd RR or W do? Hint: it wouldn't involve fellating foreign dignataries.
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My money is on the
RussiansRebels.
As far as I am concerned the Cold War never ended...
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Google cache of a rebel website claiming they shot down an AN-26:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?hl=en&q=cache%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fvk.com%2Fwall-57424472_7256
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Does anyone else think it strains the imagination that Malaysia could lose two 777's in a few months? How many modern jet airliners are lost worldwide every year? None? One? Two? Is it possible this has nothing to do with the Ukraine war at all?
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Does anyone else think it strains the imagination that Malaysia could lose two 777's in a few months? How many modern jet airliners are lost worldwide every year? None? One? Two? Is it possible this has nothing to do with the Ukraine war at all?
This wasn't "lost" it was shot out of the air. Plenty of footage of wreckage and the dead. First one went down, we just don't know where due to incompetence and ass covering.
What exactly do you think happened?
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I'm curious about how they'll replace the planes.
It looks like the 777-200ER is pretty common,422 made.I don't expect that you could just waltz into a Boeing dealer and fly out with a couple of new planes.
I wonder if they'll be replaced at all,if a different Boeing model will be pressed into service,maybe an Airbus A330?Looks to a layman like a similar plane that they already use.
Conceiveably,the loss of two airplanes could break the airline.
It'll be interesting to see what happens here.
Two planes does strain the imagination.
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I'm curious about how they'll replace the planes.
It looks like the 777-200ER is pretty common,422 made.I don't expect that you could just waltz into a Boeing dealer and fly out with a couple of new planes.
I wonder if they'll be replaced at all,if a different Boeing model will be pressed into service,maybe an Airbus A330?Looks to a layman like a similar plane that they already use.
Conceiveably,the loss of two airplanes could break the airline.
It'll be interesting to see what happens here.
Two planes does strain the imagination.
Insurance, and they can lease some replacements.
Does anyone else think it strains the imagination that Malaysia could lose two 777's in a few months? How many modern jet airliners are lost worldwide every year? None? One? Two? Is it possible this has nothing to do with the Ukraine war at all?
Unrelated incidences.
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What exactly do you think happened?
Malaysia found the original plane, realized the circumstances were embarrassing, made up the existence of this flight, sent a specops team into Ukraine to take over a SA launcher, flew the incriminating plane over by remote control and shot it down, with anyone who knew anything about the original incident inside.
It's so obvious.
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Insurance, and they can lease some replacements.
An insurance company that has two fork over for two jumbo jets in one year?That could mean bankruptcy.
And just where would the leased planes come from?These aren't Econolines we're talking about.
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An insurance company that has two fork over for two jumbo jets in one year?That could mean bankruptcy.
And just where would the leased planes come from?These aren't Econolines we're talking about.
Here's some reading for you
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_insurance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_lease
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Malaysia Airlines is already on shaky financial ground. This might put them under.
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Here's some reading for you
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_insurance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_lease
Thanks,I've never had insurance before.Good to know.
Now,find an airline appropriate insurance policy,for a non-US airline,that covers acts of war or terrorism.From what I read the families will likely get compensated.The airframe and crews value though,from what I've read isn't covered.
And as Fly320s indicated,and can be expanded upon here,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines,that airline isn't exactly in the black.
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This wasn't "lost" it was shot out of the air. Plenty of footage of wreckage and the dead. First one went down, we just don't know where due to incompetence and ass covering.
What exactly do you think happened?
I have no clue what happened. Just pointing out the odds are astronomical that some little country could lose two jets in a few months.
Until there is a launch signature, or a radar track, some eyewitnesses , an empty launch rack, etc- the "shot down" seems to speculation.
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Until there is a launch signature, or a radar track, some eyewitnesses , an empty launch rack, etc- the "shot down" seems to speculation.
Launch signature, radar tracks, smoke trail, etc have all been observed. Wreckage will also tell the tale, because there will be pieces of the warhead with it.
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I have no clue what happened. Just pointing out the odds are astronomical that some little country could lose two jets in a few months.
Until there is a launch signature, or a radar track, some eyewitnesses , an empty launch rack, etc- the "shot down" seems to speculation.
Cheney has stock in Boeing and Airbus.
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Nobody else is taking a chance. 8:50pm US Pacific time.
Not very many contrails over the Ukraine today.
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2F0603%2FBob8251%2FRandomness%2FRadar_zps8ccc113c.jpg&hash=10457bbcc0ae1ba7ee3550af4dc342e5adf4e4f2)
bob
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What woukd RR or W do? Hint: it wouldn't involve fellating foreign dignataries.
What did RR (Ronald Reagan) do about the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut?
What did "W" do about the Chinese taking of a Navy P3"
I'm definitely not an Obama fan but, what would any other president have done?
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He could admit that he has lusted in his heart.
Whatever those other presidents have done, they probably would not have said, "Oh, well, I guess that's kind of bad a little, I guess."
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Google cache of a rebel website claiming they shot down an AN-26:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?hl=en&q=cache%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fvk.com%2Fwall-57424472_7256
Known fake.
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The Ukrainian government (here, plug this (http://lenta.ru/news/2014/07/18/yarema/) into Google Translate if you don't believe me) now backtracked on its statement that the rebels have Buk-1 launchers.
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Darned convenient how this comes along to distract us all from the border cris...squirrel!
What did RR (Ronald Reagan) do about the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut?
What did "W" do about the Chinese taking of a Navy P3"
I'm definitely not an Obama fan but, what would any other president have done?
Since it is as yet unclear if there were any US citizens on board I'm not sure just how it is the responsibility of the US to take any punitive action.
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If Obama/the U.S.:
-hadn't needlessly/uselessly sacrificed missile defense in Eastern Europe;
-let the Syria "red line" evaporate;
-been feckless and vacillating on virtually every foreign policy issue since 2009;
the situation might not exist at all. Our foreign policy has enabled these messes by projecting weakness and ambivalence, and ignoring tactics short of "boots on the ground".
What can should Obama do or say now? Not a lot. What could he have done or said previously? Different question...
(edited for . .
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The Ukrainian government (here, plug this (http://lenta.ru/news/2014/07/18/yarema/) into Google Translate if you don't believe me) now backtracked on its statement that the rebels have Buk-1 launchers.
Independent journalists have photographed Buk's in separatist controlled areas, and they have shot down two previous planes.
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Darned convenient how this comes along to distract us all from the border cris...squirrel!
Since it is as yet unclear if there were any US citizens on board I'm not sure just how it is the responsibility of the US to take any punitive action.
Many news sources say 23 Americans were on board; our state department is trying to figure out what an "American" is....... [tinfoil]
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If Obama/the U.S.:
-hadn't needlessly/uselessly sacrificed missile defense in Eastern Europe;
-let the Syria "red line" evaporate;
-been feckless and vacillating on virtually every foreign policy issue since 2009;
the situation might not exist at all. Our foreign policy has enabled these messes by projecting weakness and ambivalence, and ignoring tactics short of "boots on the ground".
What can should Obama do or say now? Not a lot. What could he have done or said previously? Different question...
I will, based on the above, amend my earlier post to say that regardless of what other Presidents or politicians may or may not have done / would do in a similar situation, no President in my memory, going back to Carter, has looked as weak as Obama. Even if they only blustered, they at least blustered about real consequences. When Obama blusters, he blusters about, "If you're not careful, we'll start a Twitter campaign!".
This entire administration seems to think the world is a Utopian university campus, where protest will illicit change, or at least concession, if only to shut the protesting students up and stop them from blocking the door to the campus tofu take-out.
I also wonder if this situation in Ukraine would exist to the degree it does now with an administration that didn't call Mitt Romney crazy for suggesting that the Russian Federation was a potential geopolitical threat to US interests.
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The Ukrainian government (here, plug this (http://lenta.ru/news/2014/07/18/yarema/) into Google Translate if you don't believe me) now backtracked on its statement that the rebels have Buk-1 launchers.
So they can throw molotov cocktails 6 miles up?
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I will, based on the above, amend my earlier post to say that regardless of what other Presidents or politicians may or may not have done / would do in a similar situation, no President in my memory, going back to Carter, has looked as weak as Obama. Even if they only blustered, they at least blustered about real consequences. When Obama blusters, he blusters about, "If you're not careful, we'll start a Twitter campaign!".
This entire administration seems to think the world is a Utopian university campus, where protest will illicit change, or at least concession, if only to shut the protesting students up and stop them from blocking the door to the campus tofu take-out.
I also wonder if this situation in Ukraine would exist to the degree it does now with an administration that didn't call Mitt Romney crazy for suggesting that the Russian Federation was a potential geopolitical threat to US interests.
The Emperor's ensemble is looking increasingly threadbare. [Wishful thinking/May the throngs of once-adoring spectators feel their eyes burn in the harsh light of reality./Wishful thinking]
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Many news sources say 23 Americans were on board; our state department is trying to figure out what an "American" is....... [tinfoil]
An American is anyone born anywhere, except white conservatives who were born in America- those are trrrrists.
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Intel now reporting that it was likely the separatists.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-airlines-plane-was-hit-by-surface-to-air-missile-u-s-officials-say-1405659584
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http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=20c_1405627273
http://pastie.org/9400789#30
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bsxs-9sCMAA-Kd1.jpg)
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Devil"s advocate mode:
Like BSL said don't fly over a war zone. Unless we have some sort of evidence that those Americans on board were specifically targeted because they were Americans, this plane getting shot down doesn't rise to the level of foreign policy for the US. Americans die overseas every day from being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Sad, but a fact of life.
on the situation as a whole:
Remember how everyone agrees that the borders in the Mid East don't follow ethnic or cultural lines, and as a result there tends to be long-term unhappiness with the borders and strife? Remember how we all agree it's stupid to get embroiled in those disputes because of the long history of differences and grievances on all side and in all ethnicities?
What makes you think Eastern Europe is any better?
A real quick scan of the wiki article on the Ukraine would indicate that the land we refer to as the ukraine has been settled and fought over for ~3000 years. (I'm going to assume the neolithic guys weren't invade each other just for the sake of small numbers.) It also appears that it was common to ship in ethnically <whoever won the last battle> to help hold the region since Roman times. The LONGEST it seems to have gone without fighting over it's borders was as the Ukrainian SSR. Not a banner time in history.
So it seems that some ethnically <not from Kiev> want to be politically <not from Kiev>. And the Russians, whose great aunts and Uncles may or may not be in the region see some economic political gains to be had from splitting the Ukraine and (probably) annexing the territory. The Kievan Ukrainians don't want this to happen.
Why do we care? The oil and gas into Europe thing doesn't really matter to us, except that it might make North African oil cheaper. Russia will become a little more powerful regionally, but as soon as our CinC gets a sac we can ask Putin where his Carrier Groups are. Oh, That's right. Yet Americans are all hyperventilating about some regional border spat in an area rife with regional border spats. F it. Let them sort it out.
/Devil's advocate mode.
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Confirmed death toll so far
Netherlands: 189
Malaysia: 44 (including 15 crew)
Australian: 27
Indonesia: 12
UK: 9
Germany: 4
Belgium: 4
Philippines: 3
Canada: 1
New Zealand: 1
Unverified: 4
Total: 298
***********
'mericans?From the BBC.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28360827
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line
Confirmed death toll so far
Netherlands: 189
Malaysia: 44 (including 15 crew)
Australian: 27
Indonesia: 12
UK: 9
Germany: 4
Belgium: 4
Philippines: 3
Canada: 1
New Zealand: 1
Unverified: 4
Total: 298
***********
'mericans?From the BBC.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28360827
"One of the most brilliant minds in Aids research, a young family on a journey back to Indonesia and tourists looking forward to holidays in the sun were among those who perished when MH17 crashed in eastern Ukraine. " (from onions! linked article.)
Congratulations, a@@holes. :mad:
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Devil"s advocate mode:
Like BSL said don't fly over a war zone. Unless we have some sort of evidence that those Americans on board were specifically targeted because they were Americans, this plane getting shot down doesn't rise to the level of foreign policy for the US. Americans die overseas every day from being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Sad, but a fact of life.
on the situation as a whole:
Remember how everyone agrees that the borders in the Mid East don't follow ethnic or cultural lines, and as a result there tends to be long-term unhappiness with the borders and strife? Remember how we all agree it's stupid to get embroiled in those disputes because of the long history of differences and grievances on all side and in all ethnicities?
What makes you think Eastern Europe is any better?
A real quick scan of the wiki article on the Ukraine would indicate that the land we refer to as the ukraine has been settled and fought over for ~3000 years. (I'm going to assume the neolithic guys weren't invade each other just for the sake of small numbers.) It also appears that it was common to ship in ethnically <whoever won the last battle> to help hold the region since Roman times. The LONGEST it seems to have gone without fighting over it's borders was as the Ukrainian SSR. Not a banner time in history.
So it seems that some ethnically <not from Kiev> want to be politically <not from Kiev>. And the Russians, whose great aunts and Uncles may or may not be in the region see some economic political gains to be had from splitting the Ukraine and (probably) annexing the territory. The Kievan Ukrainians don't want this to happen.
Why do we care? The oil and gas into Europe thing doesn't really matter to us, except that it might make North African oil cheaper. Russia will become a little more powerful regionally, but as soon as our CinC gets a sac we can ask Putin where his Carrier Groups are. Oh, That's right. Yet Americans are all hyperventilating about some regional border spat in an area rife with regional border spats. F it. Let them sort it out.
/Devil's advocate mode.
Putin is re-establishing Imperial Russia and the USSR's old borders. That's kind of a big deal.
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Unverified: 4
Is it really that much easier to get on a flight in the rest of the world? I mean, I would assume it's a bit easier in Amsterdam than in DC, but it's still a modern airport, so do they really have no idea where four of the people are from?
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http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/over-100-hiv-experts-and-advocates-may-have-been-board-crashed-malaysian-plane
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http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/over-100-hiv-experts-and-advocates-may-have-been-board-crashed-malaysian-plane
HIV advocates?
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HIV advocates?
[sorta_simpsons]"Will someone please think of speak for the viruses?"[/sorta_simpsons]
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What makes you think Eastern Europe is any better?
Yugoslavia is another good (bad?) example. There are definitely regions where group conflicts have been going on for as long as anyone can remember. I wish we would practice a little more isolationist policies regarding our involvement in those places, because we are only ever a crappy band-aid, if that, and eventually they go back to what they are good at.
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Yugoslavia is another good (bad?) example. There are definitely regions where group conflicts have been going on for as long as anyone can remember. I wish we would practice a little more isolationist policies regarding our involvement in those places, because we are only ever a crappy band-aid, if that, and eventually they go back to what they are good at.
But but but muslims were being ethnicAlly cleansed by christians which runs 180 degrees out of sync from the natural order of things, we had to intervene!
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Conceiveably,the loss of two airplanes could break the airline.
It's even more conceivable that a sudden lack of any passenger willing to buy a ticket on your airline could break an airline. And with two jumbo jets lost with six months, I think anyone who would willingly fly on Malaysia Airlines is certifiably nuts.
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It's even more conceivable that a sudden lack of any passenger willing to buy a ticket on your airline could break an airline. And with two jumbo jets lost with six months, I think anyone who would willingly fly on Malaysia Airlines is certifiably nuts.
Absolutely.For some reason I forgot about ticket sales.<insert shrug smiley>
That leads to the next question.How many airports are serviced soley by Malaysia Airlines?For international flights exclusively?
This puzzle has quite the depth.
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Putin is re-establishing Imperial Russia and the USSR's old borders. That's kind of a big deal.
Why?
Do we have a compelling interest in eastern Europe or the icky-stans? And that's not counting the whole "self determination" thing we supposedly love. Many of the folks in Eastern Europe would vote to break up their country if allowed.
Mostly, I just look back on my professional experiences with some of the former SSR's militaries om Iraq. Like the Israeli government, these are not regimes we really want to support. Where as my experiences with Russians (all in the early 90's and not military) left me feeling like our cultures had a lot in common. So why are we picking one over the other? Because Putin doesn't like the gayz?
Actually, I kinda hope he does. Let Russia funk around with the Muslims in central Asia for a while.
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"Without significant funding, he said the airline would not survive beyond a year"
From the BBC:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28370863
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Putin is re-establishing Imperial Russia and the USSR's old borders. That's kind of a big deal.
Primarily in ethnically/pro Russian areas.
Call me when he has designs on Poland/Germany/SomeSuchPlaceOrAlly. Till then I've developed an "I really don't care" approach to some Russian landscaping in their backyard. When it involves our allies, steps into our backyard, etc. that might be a different story. Till it's a compelling reason to be our problem, I'm content with us not making it our problem.
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Primarily in ethnically/pro Russian areas.
Call me when he has designs on Poland/Germany/SomeSuchPlaceOrAlly. Till then I've developed an "I really don't care" approach to some Russian landscaping in their backyard. When it involves our allies, steps into our backyard, etc. that might be a different story. Till it's a compelling reason to be our problem, I'm content with us not making it our problem.
People must have said the same of Hitler when all they thought he wanted was the Sudetenland.
I know, I know, no one wants go go to war against Putin.
It's just the history repeating itself, both geopolitically and attitudinally that "gets" me.
I'm not supporting a war, especially with our current CinC; he'd just lose the war and apologize..... :facepalm:
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Primarily in ethnically/pro Russian areas.
Call me when he has designs on Poland/Germany/SomeSuchPlaceOrAlly. Till then I've developed an "I really don't care" approach to some Russian landscaping in their backyard. When it involves our allies, steps into our backyard, etc. that might be a different story. Till it's a compelling reason to be our problem, I'm content with us not making it our problem.
Let's also not forget the fact that while I have no objection to pimpslapping Russia by killing a bunch of "separatists" the way we go about wars these days is absolutely *expletive deleted* retarded. When you have politicians running wars as "limited conflicts" you cannot have victory, you must fight war like war if you intend to win it. The Russians on the other hand, don't have the idiotic ideas that our politicians have.
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People must have said the same of Hitler when all they thought he wanted was the Sudetenland.
I know, I know, no one wants go go to war against Putin.
It's just the history repeating itself, both geopolitically and attitudinally that "gets" me.
I'm not supporting a war, especially with our current CinC; he'd just lose the war and apologize..... :facepalm:
True enough, but for all of the harsh words issued by US presidents over the Russians misdeeds in their own backyard, we've never interfered. Not in Budapest in 1956, not in Chechnya in 1994. Most of the countries are of no strategic or economic value to the US, at least not to the extent of the US engaging Putin with anything more than words.
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True enough, but for all of the harsh words issued by US presidents over the Russians misdeeds in their own backyard, we've never interfered. Not in Budapest in 1956, not in Chechnya in 1994. Most of the countries are of no strategic or economic value to the US, at least not to the extent of the US engaging Putin with anything more than words.
:facepalm:
We have a remarkably poor record of engaging in treaties and then ignoring them or promising to defend and then reneging.
Taiwan must be sleeping well these days .... :mad: :-X
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People must have said the same of Hitler when all they thought he wanted was the Sudetenland.
I know, I know, no one wants go go to war against Putin.
It's just the history repeating itself, both geopolitically and attitudinally that "gets" me.
I'm not supporting a war, especially with our current CinC; he'd just lose the war and apologize..... :facepalm:
People fight over lands and borders all the time. It's gone on for thousands of years and will do so for more, just because one occasionally goes really balls to the wall crazy doesn't mean it always repeats itself that way. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it usually doesn't. But I'll add "when they start shoving an entire ethnic group into ovens" to my list of times to call me if it makes you feel better.
Until there's a compelling reason to stick our noses in my position stands. The areas of Ukraine involved are largely ethnically and pro Russian, if they want to seize an opportunity to push for a switch back to Russia that's between them Russia and Ukraine. We have no treaties obligating us to militarily defend Ukraine (and even if we did, a largely internal matter with one side wanting to break away would likely be debatable if we should intervene). And we have no national interests in the area worth getting into a spat over. So I see no reason to stick our noses in and get egg on our face, and I damn sure don't want us getting involved militarily.
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Why the facepalm, TommyGunn?
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:facepalm:
We have a remarkably poor record of engaging in treaties and then ignoring them or promising to defend and then reneging.
Taiwan must be sleeping well these days .... :mad: :-X
When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?
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When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?
It was done in order to convince the Ukraine to give up its nukes because Russia really didn't like them to have nukes if they weren't subservient to the USSR.
Since I wrote that I have read a little more; it seems it really wasn't so much a promise to defend the Ukraine as just a legal background for doing it, if necessary.
BTW, just what the heck is Putin doing in a "mainly internal conflict? ?
IIRC this whole shebang started when Russia invaded the Crimea.
Then the whole block joined the party. [tinfoil]
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Why?
Do we have a compelling interest in eastern Europe or the icky-stans? And that's not counting the whole "self determination" thing we supposedly love. Many of the folks in Eastern Europe would vote to break up their country if allowed.
Mostly, I just look back on my professional experiences with some of the former SSR's militaries om Iraq. Like the Israeli government, these are not regimes we really want to support. Where as my experiences with Russians (all in the early 90's and not military) left me feeling like our cultures had a lot in common. So why are we picking one over the other? Because Putin doesn't like the gayz?
Actually, I kinda hope he does. Let Russia funk around with the Muslims in central Asia for a while.
Who said anything a out picking sides in this conflict? I merely pointed out that the re-emergence of Russia as a significant global super power with expansionistic tendencies is a big deal.
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When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?
But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.
I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.
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But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.
I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.
Because we've NEVER done the exact same thing.
Chris
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But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.
I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.
I never said Russians weren't involved. But fanning internal flames it's still internal as far as I'm concerned. And I'll be perfectly honest, Russia could launch a full scale invasion tomorrow and my position wouldn't change much. It's not our problem, and it's not our business. Give them the stink eye, toss a few words of wtf if it makes folks feel better, but beyond that we should stay out of it. When they *expletive deleted*ck with a country that we have an obligation to defend, whether by treaty or a strong enough strategic interest, then it's our problem and our business. And we can go from there what steps would be appropriate responses.
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Because we've NEVER done the exact same thing.
I never claimed that we didn't. My wife was from Chile, where the CIA sponsored and supported a military coup and the removal (and murder, IIRC) of the democratically-elected president (Salvatore Allende). "Our guy" was a goon who was responsible for the murders of thousands of people.
Doesn't mean the Russians aren't doing it now ...
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I never said Russians weren't involved. But fanning internal flames it's still internal as far as I'm concerned.
It's internal IF all the "rebels" are in fact Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It appears that you believe they are. I believe they are not. I believe they are Russian Army, possibly Spetnaz. If I'm right, then it's not internal.
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It's internal IF all the "rebels" are in fact Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It appears that you believe they are. I believe they are not. I believe they are Russian Army, possibly Spetnaz. If I'm right, then it's not internal.
Let's say that's true. What business does that make it of ours?
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The genie is out of the bottle regarding Ukraine. We don't have a compelling national interest to get involved. What we do have a compelling national interest in is the national sovereignty of our friends and allies in the region.
It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.
Really though this is something that the free nations of Europe should be pursuing. If they "feel" like they can't count on Team America World Police and have to buck up themselves a bit I'm OK with that idea.
Actually I would like to see us focus more on getting our own house in order here stateside; then maybe trying to exercise a little more soft power in our own hemisphere. We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.
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We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.
Too late. It's been outsourced to India and China.
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Too late. It's been outsourced to India and China.
Actually, it's only recently (2012) that China passed the US in manufacturing.
We build a lot of stuff, but with far less people and far greater efficiency. So it's generally not as noticeable.
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Actually, it's only recently (2012) that China passed the US in manufacturing.
We build a lot of stuff, but with far less people and far greater efficiency. So it's generally not as noticeable.
And its coming back. Wages are rising in PRC, and the constant (I've seen the scars) IP theft, massive QC issues, etc, are leaving a sour taste in many people's mouths.
That's why I designed production and mfg for some things I'm doing to be domestic. If you design right, very little touch labor (where PRC is cheap) and the rest of the equipment is industry standard, so no real benefit of offshore, if you find the right place with low energy costs, low land costs, and low taxes (cough, Texas, cough)
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That's why I designed production and mfg for some things I'm doing to be domestic. If you design right, very little touch labor (where PRC is cheap) and the rest of the equipment is industry standard, so no real benefit of offshore, if you find the right place with low energy costs, low land costs, and low taxes (cough, Texas, cough)
Ah, but if you go with the Chinese, you get to play Apple/Microsoft/Sony and make up your own spec to declare "industry standard," then whine when nobody else pays your licensing fees to implement it.
Yes, I'm still highly amused by the 1/4-20 bolts with metric heads...at a guess, they must have had thousands of them custom made, apparently so they wouldn't have to get one new wrench per line.
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Quote of the week:
"You can always count on Eastern Europeans equipped with advanced technology to eventually screw up massively and kill a lot of innocent people."
----Steve Sailer
From this:
http://www.unz.com/isteve/roger-cohen-in-nyt-demands-ww3/
NYT op-ed columnist Roger Cohen calls for World War III...
You know, Roger, Barbara Tuchman’s history of the beginnings of World War One, The Guns of August, wasn’t actually intended as a How To manual. When Santayana talked about the need to learn from the past, it wasn’t so we can do it all over again.
This is why I’ve been worrying about World War G for the last year. What’s the worst that hyping World War G can lead to? I mean, besides World War 3?
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Ah, but if you go with the Chinese, you get to play Apple/Microsoft/Sony and make up your own spec to declare "industry standard," then whine when nobody else pays your licensing fees to implement it.
Yes, I'm still highly amused by the 1/4-20 bolts with metric heads...at a guess, they must have had thousands of them custom made, apparently so they wouldn't have to get one new wrench per line.
By equipment in this case I mean $100,000+ pick/place/stencil/reflow lines that everyone uses.
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It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.
I am not sure he is looking to "reset" the Cold War, he is just adopting SOP for Russian leaders when a European power starts moving towards Moscow.
What makes it especially dangerous for him and his ilk is that this time it isnt in the form of an army that they can rally people against, its taken the form of sly diplomacy, football and a massive improvement in the quality of life of people who the Soviets and the oligarchs who succeeded them ruled abysmally and looted shamelessly. If Ukraine goes through anything like the sort of improvement as Poland, the Baltic States and the rest saw, then you can bet that people will be out on the streets in Moscow demanding much the same - and they will probably get it.
And at that point, with the EU stretching from Cadiz to Vladivostok, it becomes your problem.
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The genie is out of the bottle regarding Ukraine. We don't have a compelling national interest to get involved. What we do have a compelling national interest in is the national sovereignty of our friends and allies in the region.
It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.
Really though this is something that the free nations of Europe should be pursuing. If they "feel" like they can't count on Team America World Police and have to buck up themselves a bit I'm OK with that idea.
Actually I would like to see us focus more on getting our own house in order here stateside; then maybe trying to exercise a little more soft power in our own hemisphere. We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.
Putin isn't an idiot. He wants to make Russia strong, and make it strong with him solidly in place as a leader. He knows exactly what he can get away with, and apparently he knows how to accomplish his mission. The times the US has had similar levels of drive to get *expletive deleted*it done are the times we have flourished, and done it quickly.
If Putin can pull it off, look for a stronger Russia.
As far as I am concerned, the Cold War never ended and the Russians never ceased being enemies. Unfortunately, our leaders lost sight of the threat and decided to ignore them.
Oh, and a strong Russia unencumbered by the idiocy of Communism or the Czars is going to be a force to be reckoned with indeed.