Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Ron on September 06, 2014, 08:05:53 PM
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I've read in several articles that Estonia could potentially be the next country Putin will invade since his Crimea escapade is going so well.
Is NATO enough of a firewall and/or do we have the military assets to uphold our commitments?
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At the NATO summit that just concluded in Wales, they decided to create a NATO Quick Reaction Force for pretty much exactly this.
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Putin doesn't need to succeed with any of the invasions, he needs the crisis. If one succeeds and he gets a little of the USSR back, that's a bonus.
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He needs to push NATO in some way that makes member vacillate in response. A little Sudetenland action in the Baltics. If he can pick on a NATO member and not get an overwhelming Article 5 response then he won all the cookies, NATO is League of Nations done.
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From what I hear the ethnic Russians in the Baltic states are content to be where they are and ruled by the Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians. Might be because those countries are not basket cases like Ukraine.
Anyways, Putin's moves are not for the benefit of the Russian diaspora, but for domestic consumption.
Last thing: the Baltic states are smaller than Ukraine, but their shinola is wired tight military-wise. They are not like Ukraine's korrupt klown korps. Russia has enough resources to ensure victory, but they'll pay a steep price for such a piddly country. I seriously doubt Putin is dumb enough to risk real casualties to his own for such little gain. There is still lower-hanging fruit in Ukraine.
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Ukraine is NOT a NATO member.
The Baltic states ARE NATO members.
Putin knows that invading an actual NATO member could cause the situation to rapidly spiral out of his control, despite the feckless current occupant of the White House.
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From what I hear the ethnic Russians in the Baltic states are content to be where they are and ruled by the Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians.
True for Estonia and Lithuania, but not for Latvia.
There is a sizable number in Latvia who refused to accept Latvian citizenship and have no citizenship at all as the result. They like to complain about being unrepresented in government.
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Meanwhile, in Estonia....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29115865
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There are probably 500 people the US, Germany, and England who would get a sense of schadenfreude if Lithuania were invaded... people who had their jobs moved their by our megacorp. I'm luckily not one of them (yet) though. It gets taljed about a lot at work though.
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Meanwhile, in Estonia....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29115865
It's like it was a radio station in Germany. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
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It's like it was a radio station in Germany. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
Or a Marine in Mexico.