Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: T.O.M. on March 11, 2015, 09:48:10 AM
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So, I read this article this morning with a cup of coffee...
http://news.yahoo.com/major-survey-shows-gun-ownership-132558989.html
Long story short, it says that gun ownership in America is at an all-time low, which they attribute to the decline in hunting.
My thought when I read this was that I wonder how accurate their study was, or if it is really a decline in people willing to acknowledge firearm ownership, for various reasons. Thoughts?
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50% of the time statistics are 100% inaccurate when it comes to surveys.
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http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-general-social-survey-is-gun.html
2013 Article on GSS and "declining gun ownership".
Lott wants to blame the Joyce Foundation (well known for funding anti-gun groups). Historically, GSS has always shown substantially lower gun ownership than alternative polling. Whether it's intentional, or methodology, or sample bias, who knows.
I notice virtually none of the articles on "firearm rates going down" ever mention that folks may not wish to admit owning firearms to random strangers over the phone. I sure as hell would not.
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I notice virtually none of the articles on "firearm rates going down" ever mention that folks may not wish to admit owning firearms to random strangers over the phone. I sure as hell would not.
Yes, that.
My understanding is that gun ownership among women is rapidly increasing. Also interesting that they mentioned hunting. Certainly hunting license numbers have been declining for at least a couple of decades, but defense purchases have been going up with increased ability to CCW, etc.
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I will NOT answer questions about firearms ownership to some unknown party who calls me on the phone claiming to be doing a poll or survey.
In fact, I don't take ANY phone polls or surveys unless it's a quick "customer satisfaction survey" with some business I deal with, like my bank or car dealer.
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I would think all the recent mass gun buys from possible bans would show otherwise.
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So, I read this article this morning with a cup of coffee...
http://news.yahoo.com/major-survey-shows-gun-ownership-132558989.html
Long story short, it says that gun ownership in America is at an all-time low, which they attribute to the decline in hunting.
My thought when I read this was that I wonder how accurate their study was, or if it is really a decline in people willing to acknowledge firearm ownership, for various reasons. Thoughts?
I think your "or if" is more likely.
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I would think all the recent mass gun buys from possible bans would show otherwise.
How many of those are new gun owners or gun owners growing their collection?
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How many of those are new gun owners or gun owners growing their collection?
Most probably. However, I knew of a lot of folks who bought their first gun during that time.
At the various ranges, I see a lot of fresh-faced younger folks who are obviously new to the hobby. Our ranks are growing.
Chris
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How many of those are new gun owners or gun owners growing their collection?
Yep.
For every person like me or others on this board, there are 40-50 that might not have a gun.
OTOH, I know of several women who have bought their first gun in the last year.
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I have taught three of my wife's friends from work how to shoot in the last three years. Two subsequently bought firearms.
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I've seen very few first time gun owners. Mostly what I have seen is people who have their grandfather's shotgun or the .22lr marlin they got as a kid, but they haven't shot it in year. These are the folks I'm seeing buying their first handgun or AR-15 and taking their kids out shooting.
Plus also in the last 10 years many states have really freed up their concealed carry laws where most people can now get a permit to carry.
I wish hunting would pick up, but for many people either they didn't grow up with it, don't have a place to hunt or can't afford to lease hunting ground/trespass fee.
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I would think all the recent mass gun buys from possible bans would show otherwise.
If gun ownership is declining, why is the NRA growing?
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I guess "Number of Americans willing to discuss their guns with random strangers at an all time low" doesn't have quite the same headline punch.
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All time low? bwahahahah!!
I suppose the hords of first time gun buyers, even larger hords of returning gun buyers, record numbers of background checks, and several record-setting production years for most mfgs were some kind of mass hallucination. That's what happens when you warm your global chemtrail without using essential organic gluten oil.
Brad
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I was a heavy recreational shooter pre 9/11. The new gun population exploded at my ranges after that. At times I felt compelled to stay home some due to the crowds and the learning on the job aspect of gun safety. I was in my favorite gun shop for most of the day after Obama won term 1. Gun salesman of the century right there.
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It is quite possible that gun ownership for hunting is declining. :old:
It is highly likely that gun ownership for self-defense is increasing. [ar15]
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How many of those are new gun owners or gun owners growing their collection?
Tom Gresham has mentioned on his show that people estimate as many as 1/3 of the gun purchases over last 10 or 15 years are new gun owners. That is a very big number. It also helps explain the shortages of some ammo.
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I also think gun owners are less likely to participate in any poll or poll that includes personal information than a non-gun owner.
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It also helps explain the shortages of some ammo.
That's actually a good point. My old brain may be letting me down, but I don't remember ammo shortages anything like we have now back 30 years ago. Short supply occasionally, but outright, "we're sold out, don't know when we'll have any again", not so much. Same with reloading supplies.
Of course it might not be directly correlated to raw numbers - it could be that the modern shooting culture panics about that stuff more than past populations.
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Lots of new gun owners and hoarders because neckbeards and zombies.
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That's actually a good point. My old brain may be letting me down, but I don't remember ammo shortages anything like we have now back 30 years ago. Short supply occasionally, but outright, "we're sold out, don't know when we'll have any again", not so much. Same with reloading supplies.
Of course it might not be directly correlated to raw numbers - it could be that the modern shooting culture panics about that stuff more than past populations.
I don't ever remember even short supply. Unless it was some bizarre loading that sat on a shelf until there was an inch of dust on it before someone bought it, and then the store owner wouldn't order anymore unless someone came in and asked for it. .22LR could be had in anything from 50 round boxes to "value packs" of 500-550. And always lots on the shelves. And I would wager that most manufacturers probably knew to the case or pallet how many of each loading they could expect to sell in any given year. Until 9/11. The growth of CCW also spurred shortages. I disremember which year there were 6 new .380 ACP (which had always been a sleepy little cartridge) pistols introduced and you couldn't find .380 ammo for love nor money. And each year US (calls for gun control) and world events (terror attacks) clearly have driven demand and numbers of new shooters. Back when I first joined my club in the mid-1990's, it had maybe 600 members and was mostly a shotgun club. I doubt that more then 15 members had an AR or other EBR. Most of the pistol shooters were Bullseye/Target shooters and the rifle shooters were all hunting or benchrest target shooters.
Now it's completely reversed. We have over 2000 members. Most are pistol shooters and most of those are either CCW or SD (IDPA/IPSC) type shooters. The rifles are now black and none are shot off of a bench. Practical Rifle, 2 Gun, 3 Gun and Precision events are the big ones. There's still Shotgun, but it's not the draw it was back when.
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Lots of new gun owners and hoarders because neckbeards and zombies.
It doesn't even have to be hoarding. If everyone who owns a 22 rifle bought an extra brick when they saw one, the stock would disappear quickly.
Or another perspective, when was the last time a manufacturer expanded rimfire production?
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To amplify on what Scout had to say we also now have several very up to date and large indoor ranges in Chicagoland not to mention better access to Bass Pro Shops and Cabelas.
The new modern gun stores/indoor ranges offer CCW classes and IDPA/IPSC type training/classes/events as well as large on hand inventories of handguns and black rifles.
That is a big improvement from the dark dingy ranges around here when I first started shooting (after 9/11).
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I don't know if this proves anything, but the Conservation Dept. ranges around here were (or are) being renovated. Conservation runs two staffed ranges about a half-hour from where I live, which puts them about 30-45 minutes from St. Louis, and even closer to the heavily-populated rural and suburban communities that surround the city. As they only charge $3/hour, I would imagine they compete pretty well with the $18/hour indoor ranges,* or even the free, un-staffed Conservation Dept. ranges further out in the sticks. The Busch range in St. Charles County got particularly crowded on nice Saturdays, so that I got to planning my range trips on cold or rainy days.
But Busch is closed for the next 2-3 years, so they can tear down the old range, and erect a whole new setup, with bathrooms (thank goodness), classrooms, etc. The Jay Henges range was renovated a few years ago, but not as extensively. I don't know if that has more to do with skilled bureaucrats expanding the budget (and making the range more "green"), or an increase in traffic. Or both.
http://mdc.mo.gov/regions/st-louis/august-busch-shooting-range/august-busch-shooting-range-renovation
http://mdc.mo.gov/newsroom/mdcs-jay-henges-shooting-range-attains-4-star-rating-nssf
*There are at least 2 or 3 new indoor ranges in St. Louis County within the past 5 years, and as many new gun stores without ranges. One of the new ranges is ten minutes from my house, but it's much too expensive to be much of an option for me.
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Yep.
For every person like me or others on this board, there are 40-50 that might not have a gun.
OTOH, I know of several women who have bought their first gun in the last year.
I'm probably biased because of the state I live, there are a lot of firearm owners, seems like a lot of people are born already owning firearms via inheritance.
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I'm probably biased because of the state I live, there are a lot of firearm owners, seems like a lot of people are born already owning firearms via inheritance.
Same here.
Rural folk almost always have guns in the house- I always thought my one set of grandparents odd that they didn't- they weren't into hunting/shooting. With other set of grandparents, I'm not even going to discuss what was found hidden in their house after they died.
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Ah percentages...
I'll say that the Colt Government model in its A1 configuration loaded with 200gr SWC mild reloads is the favorite handgun of 75% of the women I have taken shooting for the first time. The other 25% chose a .22LR Buckmark. 0% chose a Glock 9mm. 100% said they were now eager to buy a firearm when finances permitted (i.e., if there is a shoe budget surplus)..
Also, it is 110% easier to make a good shooter out of a novice female shooter than it is out of a novice male shooter. Go figure.
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If ANY of the surge in gun sales that have hit in the past years have been new shooters, at a rate faster than "old shooters" die, obviously the number of gun owners is increasing.
And when "old shooters" die, what happens to their guns? They're inherited. And some of the beneficiaries are new gun owners too.
I think the groups polling for this info have to know, if they have any intellectual honesty, that the results do not reflect reality. All that matters is if the people paying for the results like them, and if the methodology has no obvious method to discredit it that would make them look bad.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/03/11/barack-obama-may-have-been-at-least-a-9-billion-boon-to-the-gun-industry-so-far/