Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Scout26 on November 01, 2016, 06:40:51 PM
-
Heard today on the Radio that Trump is ahead and/or even and/or within the margin of error on a couple of polls.
Sounds like they are starting to "adjust" the polls to match what they expect the result to be...
-
I suspect there's a huge sample bias working there.
Them folk who will vote for Trump won't answer wun uh them gold-durn pea-pickin' busybody surveys. I'm wun uh them.
While them folk who are so full of pride in their self-righteous nobility and anti-gun global consciousness and do-gooder altruism will be happy and proud to answer surveys, then run out to buy more halo polish.
Dunno how they can accurately account for this kind of bias.
Frankly, I'm more worried about the Electoral College stats.
-
Hillary has apparently done another "reset" and is hammering the woman card. Must. Have. The. First. Woman. President. At. All Costs.
In the meantime, Trump, miraculously, appears to be listening to his advisors and has been letting Clinton destroy herself while he has been light on insults and heavy on policy promotion. A smart move in this timeframe. I guess we'll still have to see what bombs they try and drop on him and how he takes (or ignores) them. There's of course still the chance for even bigger bombs dropped on Clinton.
-
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.
-
Enthusiasm gap. Hillary is going to suffer people who just don't bother to to vote.
-
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.
Check out his speech at PA.
Truthfully I don't think Trump is much different now - he's always been policy heavy. What he's not doing is giving those10 second sound bites the media love to run as if it's all he says.
-
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.
Yup. I bet the dems are hating that 01NOV came before 08NOV. =D
-
Just saw a poll that showed that those who vote on election day would favor Trump by 50% to 39%, while those who voted early favored Clinton. I really think early voting is a mistake, as many of those voters would probably like to change their votes if they could
-
The early voting will be a major contributor to Clinton's unfortunate victory.
-
The early voting will be a major contributor to Clinton's unfortunate victory.
"you can be happy if you've a mind to" =)
https://youtu.be/skFWsc_-i14
-
http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/
Again, the polls are starting to swing to what the pollsters suspect the actual result will be. No news agency wants to repeat 1980. Being able to say "Hey, our polls are the most accurate !!!" becomes most important as it gets closer to Election Day. The days of Push-Polling is ending, now it's about getting it right.
-
"you can be happy if you've a mind to" =)
https://youtu.be/skFWsc_-i14
Beep beep be be de de de de de dee boom.
-
Just saw a poll that showed that those who vote on election day would favor Trump by 50% to 39%, while those who voted early favored Clinton. I really think early voting is a mistake, as many of those voters would probably like to change their votes if they could
Having been working the early voting polls. I'm not seeing the early voters (at least here) as being very pro-Hillary. Most are middle aged, middle class. They seem to be more of Trump's target demographic and not Hillary's.
-
I've been getting a LOT of phone calls lately - I let my answering machine take them, and 19 out of 20 times they don't leave a message.
I figure it's nearly all political polling, political advertising, and telemarketing. I don't feel like talking to ANY of these people.
And as for the election itself, remember, it doesn't matter who votes or how they vote, all that matters is who COUNTS the votes.
-
As much as I'd like for the resurgence of optimism about a Clinton loss not to be misplaced, unless Comey and company manage to pull a rabbit out of his ass and disclose some serious *expletive deleted*it on the Clinton crime family, a week from now she will be president-elect.
-
I was in our KC office for an IT support visit last week on Thursday when the Comey/FBI Weiner-laptop reopening news broke.
I could overhear one of the analysts and the receptionist talking about if it's possible to change an early/absentee vote in the next office over. :rofl:
-
I was in our KC office for an IT support visit last week on Thursday when the Comey/FBI Weiner-laptop reopening news broke.
I could overhear one of the analysts and the receptionist talking about if it's possible to change an early/absentee vote in the next office over. :rofl:
I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?
-
I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?
I think part of it is that people like us who "pay attention" have a hard time internalizing the perspective of people who are more superficial about politics. And it's only deepened by the modern era of short attention spans, and constant streams of distractions and pop culture in a variety of platforms that just didn't exist even 20 years ago. It also comes from the still very much majority center-Left bias of the MSM which many people still believe to be impartial.
The whole original chain of Benghazi, the mail server, the emails, classified materials on a non .gov server/system, to a lot of people, it just looks like "Meh... politics... (shrug)" to them. They have a dismissive view that the whole thing is either some sort of tit-for-tat partisan exercise, or they believe they possess some sort of cosmopolitan wisdom if they decide that "Everybody does stuff like that in politics, Hillary just screwed up and got caught... sorta."
So when the whole thing rolls around TWICE.. and the MSM is all abuzz that Comey had to "re-open the investigation" and people clue into into the fact it's related to Anthony Weiner and sexting, (A more pop-culture/tabloid and salacious angle that gets attention) it finally starts to cut through the brain-fog that blankets the mind of your average American. And some of them start to get an inkling that there's actual a "there" there and all the claims of Hillary's corruption might actually have some merit.
-
I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?
Because Comey trivialized the broken laws by announcing that no "reasonable" prosecutor would take it to trial, and by saying she was "careless" with classified documents while completely glossing over the fact that "carelessness" = "negligence," and that's the basis of the law she broke. The result being that he left large segments of the population with the impression that HRC didn't really do anything bad, she was just a bit ditzy with the computer stuff.
-
What is all this I keep reading on the fringe about the Weiner new emails containing evidence of a underage sex ring racket involving the Clintons? Any substance to that?
Also... what motivated Comey to actually put his weight behind re-opening the investigation on Clinton? After all, he totally whitewashed her the first time, twisting the interpretation of Law in her favor... Was it internal pressure from honest agents? Was it pressure from other higher interests that have decided a Trump victory is a high risk and that Clinton would be a liablity and must be cut loose? Was it actually something so grave he discovered that could just not be covered up?
-
Meanwhile the stock market reacts....
http://www.allenbwest.com/matt-palumbo/according-stock-market-race
-
Meanwhile the stock market reacts....
http://www.allenbwest.com/matt-palumbo/according-stock-market-race
Yep, VIX has gone crazy since friday... I've closed all of my positions except one(1) until after elections. A rise in VIX is a great thing- it causes options to be overpriced, which then crash as the VIX goes down and things go back to normal.
(1)Currently holding a losing credit spread on FB- I expected the price to move 5-6 % on earnings last night then return 1/2 way back to yesterday's closing price, but uncertainty seems to be keeping the price down. FWIW, I ran the same plays on AAPL and AMZN earnings days and made out like a bandit.
-
Another thing I heard discussed was the difference between who people say they are voting for and who they think will win. I can't remember if what I heard was only in a particular state, but they pointed out that Trump had the lead when counting who people were voting for, but the majority still thought Hillary would win.
Then I saw a headline on Breitbart saying CNN beat out Fox News for monthly ratings for the first time in about 15 years. The article talked about Fox taking a perceived anti-Trump position.
-
News flash: a Trump presidency is not TEOTWAWKI: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html
-
News flash: a Trump presidency is not TEOTWAWKI: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html
He should spread the word in Hollywood.
“I’m *expletive deleted*ing terrified,” said writer-director Adam McKay, via email. “If Trump were to win we will see a dismantling of our democracy we cannot imagine. I know that sounds dramatic but I think it’s a safe bet. I’m hoping silent sane Americans rise up to stamp down this ugliness. At the end of the day I still believe humans are getting better and smarter and that Trump is a burp from a bygone era.”
On Twitter in the past 24 hours, a number of entertainment figures have not been shy about sharing their concerns.
“I will be funny in December,” wrote Judd Apatow, responding to a Twitter query. “For now I am more concerned with not electing a madman who incites violence and racism.”
http://variety.com/2016/biz/news/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-hollywood-panic-fear-1201907750/
How bizzare is that? A blustering businessman with funny hair, and a reality show, is supposed to be the second coming of Hitler? Some folks are gullible.
As for someone who incites violence and racism - did Apatow vote for Obama?
-
How bizzare is that? A blustering businessman with funny hair, and a reality show, is supposed to be the second coming of Hitler? Some folks are gullible.
In response to that:
http://reformclub.blogspot.ie/2016/11/two-queries-posted-on-conlawprof-comey.html
Have you moved any of your liquid assets abroad or into foreign currencies? Have you applied for academic or other positions abroad? Have you considered sending your children abroad to be educated? If you have not done anything to date, and if you don’t have any concrete extant plans to take such actions (should Trump win on November 8, 2016), then should not a detached neutral observer conclude that you do not really believe that Trump is a genuine threat? If Trump is a sociopath, should you not be doing something concrete now, other than writing words on Conlawprof and in other fora?
...
It strikes me that if no one on this listserv has recently shifted their assets in this manner, then they cannot really believe that Trump poses an existential threat of a magnitude or type different from Hillary Clinton and other candidates past and present. Why? Because if they did believe that Trump was such a threat, then they would take action now, or at least, they would already have made concrete plans which they could put into motion should Trump prevail.
If they honestly thought he was Hitler, they'd be doing more than spouting off.
-
Could be worse, we could find out Trump is a failed artist.
-
And one of the Yuuuuugge stories today, is about how all the polls (except one. Investors Business Daily, and even they didn't predict this big of a Trump win) got all sooooo terribly wrong.
[popcorn] [popcorn] [popcorn] [popcorn] [popcorn]
-
What he needs to do is spend the next two months until the inauguration openly collaborating with a couple of major, very conservative churches, and quite obviously gearing up for a right wing wet dream.
Then go back to whatever he's already got planned once as many libs as possible have left the country, starting with closing the borders.
-
What he needs to do is spend the next two months until the inauguration openly collaborating with a couple of major, very conservative churches, and quite obviously gearing up for a right wing wet dream.
Then go back to whatever he's already got planned once as many libs as possible have left the country, starting with closing the borders.
This. In that interval, he should also grow a toothbrush mustache.