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Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: makattak on March 17, 2017, 11:07:08 AM
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I was reading recently about some of the current autonomous undersea drones and thought "those sound especially well suited for smuggling" and wondered if the cartels had gotten into this technology.
Wonder no more:
https://strategypage.com/military_photos/20170316222051.aspx
Legend-Class USCGC Bertholf's boarding team aboard an Over the Horizon Long-Range Interceptor boat conducts an interdiction of a self-propelled semi-submersible vessel suspected of smuggling 7.5 tons of cocaine in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Aug. 31, 2015. The seized contraband is worth an estimated $227 million. (U.S. Coast Guard photo)
Not sure if they've moved on to the fully submersible drones, but it seems smugglers are adopting new technology. (I suspected they had, I just had not yet found discussion of it.)
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a quarter billion dollars? Yeah, worth the development and deployment. Now, can we get them to work on space travel?
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Drug smugglers have been using the semi-submersible for several years now. It was a game changer when they found the first one. Something that low in the water is pretty hard to pick up on radar but it can be done, especially an airborne radar. One time I was sitting search radar (I was a Flight Engineer) for shitz and grins and ran us in on a herd of dolphins frolicking in the ocean. That was 20+ years ago so I know the technology for search radar has grown by leaps and bounds since then, but it is still a big ocean and being in the right place at the right time to intercept one of these things is still a matter of luck.
bob
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Drug smugglers have been using the semi-submersible for several years now. It was a game changer when they found the first one. Something that low in the water is pretty hard to pick up on radar but it can be done, especially an airborne radar. One time I was sitting search radar (I was a Flight Engineer) for shitz and grins and ran us in on a herd of dolphins frolicking in the ocean. That was 20+ years ago so I know the technology for search radar has grown by leaps and bounds since then, but it is still a big ocean and being in the right place at the right time to intercept one of these things is still a matter of luck.
bob
Which is why I'm most interested in the autonomous fully submersibles. I'm fairly certain the chances of picking one of those up is minuscule even compared to the small chance of catching the semi-submersibles.
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a quarter billion dollars? Yeah, worth the development and deployment. Now, can we get them to work on space travel?
Why would you want to smuggle drugs to space? Or do you have that secret moon base growing weed?
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Here is an article that is a couple of years old but it talks about the four types of "subs" the smugglers are using. The semi-submersible (snorkel only above the water) is downright scary to me.
http://www.businessinsider.com/cartel-narco-submarines-2015-4
bob
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Here is an article that is a couple of years old but it talks about the four types of "subs" the smugglers are using. The semi-submersible (snorkel only above the water) is downright scary to me.
http://www.businessinsider.com/cartel-narco-submarines-2015-4
bob
Ah, those are all manned vessels, which I was aware of (minus the "Torpedo" which I'd hesitate to call a "vessel" as in boat). I'm curious about unmanned, which would seem to be a useful feature for a drug cartel.
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I am not really sure they have ventured into the unmanned arena yet. It seems as though you could program a submersible to hit a certain lat/long and have it pop up for recovery by a boat that could either unload it or tow it to land. It is an intriguing thought and I am sure if others have thought of it so have the cartels.
OTOH, would using an autonomous submersible be considered too risky when you are talking cargo worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Another thought, why go autonomous when you obviously can crew the ones you have? Paying a crew, giving them a GPS, food, and water is probably cheaper than trying to automate one of those things.
Interesting discussion.
bob
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I am not really sure they have ventured into the unmanned arena yet. It seems as though you could program a submersible to hit a certain lat/long and have it pop up for recovery by a boat that could either unload it or tow it to land. It is an intriguing thought and I am sure if others have thought of it so have the cartels.
OTOH, would using an autonomous submersible be considered too risky when you are talking cargo worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Another thought, why go autonomous when you obviously can crew the ones you have? Paying a crew, giving them a GPS, food, and water is probably cheaper than trying to automate one of those things.
Interesting discussion.
bob
Well... in theory, a $9 Arduino, or $40 Raspberry Pi, with a few hundred bucks in COTS GPS sensors, relays, and servos right from Amazon is all you'd need.
In practice, making it hardened, reliable, and redundant would be much more difficult, but not impossible. The redundancy part is easy, just buy three of the microcontrollers, and have three sets of wiring and sensors. Admittedly, the coding for cross checking and fail-over modes gets significantly harder. We have a few members here who could probably make a very credible stab at it, assuming all other aspects of the boat, sub, or semi-sub were done properly. Paying off a few South American, American, hell, given the Internet, really anywhere in the world... the operational security to find comp-sci grad students to design it, instead of running screaming to the authorities is probably the hardest part.
Something going wrong in terms of mechanical failure, not having a mechanic to adjust or fix the diesel engine for instance might be the biggest stumbling block, but it could get to the point that if the cartels could actually set up a production line sufficient to gain some sort of economy of scale, and send so many autonomous ones that a certain percentage of losses vs. manned boats becomes acceptable.
There's other limitations of course, avoiding/evading other vessels, even an accidental contact, much less Navy or Coast Guard is nigh impossible, although there's even some possibilities there, with cameras and motion or object detection. And it seems that the manned ones have very limited ability in this regard already.
It's really now at the point where kids play with tools so powerful for so cheap, that the real limit is design and coding ability, and project managment to make it all come together.
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Wonder how something like that would show up on SOSUS or similar (like a nearby attack sub or boomer), or if it would get lost in the surface chop/noise.
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Wonder how something like that would show up on SOSUS or similar (like a nearby attack sub or boomer), or if it would get lost in the surface chop/noise.
Just a wild guess but I would think an even bigger obstacle to detecting these things would be a thermocline. With them on the surface or very close there is always a good possibility of a thermocline between the target and the detecting platform if it is undersea.
bob
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Unmanned smuggling drones could be rather dangerous to intercept - with no crew aboard, booby trapping it (explosives, toxins, whatever) becomes an obvious option.
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Unmanned smuggling drones could be rather dangerous to intercept - with no crew aboard, booby trapping it (explosives, toxins, whatever) becomes an obvious option.
There's an issue I had not even considered. MORE to recommend it to people with ill intentions.
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Unmanned smuggling drones could be rather dangerous to intercept - with no crew aboard, booby trapping it (explosives, toxins, whatever) becomes an obvious option.
Which might result in them just getting sunk on site.
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I am not really sure they have ventured into the unmanned arena yet. It seems as though you could program a submersible to hit a certain lat/long and have it pop up for recovery by a boat that could either unload it or tow it to land. It is an intriguing thought and I am sure if others have thought of it so have the cartels.
OTOH, would using an autonomous submersible be considered too risky when you are talking cargo worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Another thought, why go autonomous when you obviously can crew the ones you have? Paying a crew, giving them a GPS, food, and water is probably cheaper than trying to automate one of those things.
Interesting discussion.
bob
Wouldn't an autonomous submersible drone also need to have something poking out of the water to pick up GPS signals to navigate?
The science fiction fan in me wonders of the USCG could train dolphins to detect submersibles and call in the (water-borne) cavalry for an intercept.
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a quarter billion dollars? Yeah, worth the development and deployment. Now, can we get them to work on space travel?
We chased super pangas on occasion. Million dollar vessels that the cartels had custom built in their on shipyards in Mexico. As long as product got delivered, they didn't bat an eye (too much) on the crews leaving them behind if they needed to vamoose after offload. Different story (and end) for the crews if they gave up too soon.
I have no doubt AUVs are just another disposable and "cost of doing business" asset to them.
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Wouldn't an autonomous submersible drone also need to have something poking out of the water to pick up GPS signals to navigate?
Yes and no. AUVs can be programmed for long endurance missions. They might poke their heads out at pre-programmed times to get sats or comms, but no need for an exposed antenna or extended surface times.
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Which might result in them just getting sunk on site.
And any evidence goes to Davy Jones' Locker.
A mix between manned and unmanned submersibles would probably give the people who write ROEs a headache . . .
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What happens when they run out of baking powder?
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OTOH, would using an autonomous submersible be considered too risky when you are talking cargo worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Another thought, why go autonomous when you obviously can crew the ones you have? Paying a crew, giving them a GPS, food, and water is probably cheaper than trying to automate one of those things.
On the other hand, consider that if you get rid of the crew, you can get rid of the crew's life support. Remember how for the F-22 and F-35 they had to spend a ridiculous amount of money developing a stealth helmet for the pilot? Get rid of the crew, and you don't need to provision for them. Which means a smaller vessel or more payload. Smaller equals harder to detect, especially if you can get rid of even more metal.
Hell, with the way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if they go full submersible drone with electric propulsion.
For that matter, there are tricks with fins and really tiny changes in buoyancy that let you travel amazing distances on practically zero power. Basically you angle the fins just right then increase or decrease buoyancy such that your travel up/down also provides forward motion. It's just slow as heck.
Which might result in them just getting sunk on site.
And when they pull up with another submersible in a couple days?
I mean, it wouldn't take much to sink a submersible, they'll have nearly zero buoyancy anyways. Until the Coast Guard goes full overkill, most of the packaged drugs will survive anyways.
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What happens when they run out of baking powder?
:laugh:
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We chased super pangas on occasion. Million dollar vessels that the cartels had custom built in their on shipyards in Mexico. As long as product got delivered, they didn't bat an eye (too much) on the crews leaving them behind if they needed to vamoose after offload. Different story (and end) for the crews if they gave up too soon.
The cost is quite severe.
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