Post by: Felonious Monk/Fignozzle on February 23, 2007, 11:55:46 AM
http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=6086.0
...got me thinking, and reminded me of an issue I wanted to discuss with all who are willing.
The Discovery Science Channel recently ran a series of shows surrounding what life would be like fifty years from now, entitled "2057".
Too large in scope to be encompassed in one show, it began with "the Body", progressed to "the City", and went on to "the World".
Much of this I found to be really cool stuff, since it was probably (by my estimate) 80% logical extension of current tech, 20% sheer speculation.
However, there was some extremely disturbing, 1984 -ish madness as well.
EMT's could basically put you on ice, not healing you, but placing you in stasis, effectively preventing further damage/death until you could be transported to specialized ER/urgent care facilities.
Once there, you could have organs replaced within 24 hours, after having printed them out using current printer technology gone gonzo.
...that is, IF you had the proper health plan.
If you were caught drinking alcohol to excess by a mandatory p!ss test which your own toilet automatically does, (the example used in the show), your primo health plan was cancelled.
No health coverage?
You're sent to some bone warehouse, to sit in a dark corner in an antiquated wheelchair, waiting to die.
What does this bode for freedom-loving peoples?
In another episode, "the City", a grandfather had an old laptop, and his grandson used it to hack the city's infrastructural operating system, shutting everything down, and releasing a holographic shark/cartoon character that displayed himself mischievously on all of the building-sized electronic billboards scattered ubiquitously across the city.
Their solution?
The police in 2057 had greatly expanded their scope and responsibilities.
They could monitor the activities and movements of every citizen, and it wasn't long before they had narrowed down the source of the hack.
The police chief's reformed-hacker father and her own son.
Lots more to observe and discuss, but this seemed to embrace a very Eurocentric vision of society, a very "Canadian/Hillaric" health care model, and so on.
For those who would desire to use cash, stay off 'the grid', come and go as you please, and so forth, it seemed to marginalize and push these folks to the edges of society, denying them access to the vast majority of 'miraculous advancements' coming forth in the next fifty years.
Anyone else see this series?
Anyone else see Big Brother standing in the wings?
Fig
Post by: wingnutx on February 23, 2007, 12:05:44 PM
EMT's could basically put you on ice, not healing you, but placing you in stasis, effectively preventing further damage/death until you could be transported to specialized ER/urgent care facilities.
That's all we do now, try to keep you alive until we get you to an ER.
My prediction: In 50 years Europe will be part of the Caliphate.
Post by: MechAg94 on February 23, 2007, 12:12:28 PM
Post by: BakerMikeRomeo on February 23, 2007, 12:27:44 PM
Also, stuff will suck.
~GnSx
Post by: crt360 on February 23, 2007, 12:41:22 PM
If you were caught drinking alcohol to excess by a mandatory p!ss test which your own toilet automatically does, (the example used in the show), your primo health plan was cancelled.
Will the law require us to p!ss only in our own personal toilet? Will it be a talking toilet that recognizes you, greets you by name and comments on your bathroom activity?
I'll probably be in a rest home or sleeping with the worms by then. Either way I'll be too old to care.
Post by: glockfan.45 on February 23, 2007, 12:46:48 PM
Post by: El Tejon on February 23, 2007, 12:48:11 PM
Big Brother waiting in the wings??? He's already here!
Post by: Lonestar49 on February 23, 2007, 12:53:15 PM
Hmmm, I may or may not be around by then but..
First, humanity must get past April 13 2028 first. Some meteor is gonna come very very close, as in, it has a real good chance of hitting the target, has be reported by those that study the heavens..
And, it may happen sooner, if they don't see one coming in.. not really a remote thought.
LS
Post by: Manedwolf on February 23, 2007, 12:56:53 PM
UK...half-flooded London after Islamic extremists bomb the Thames flood barrier, and the call to prayer from loudspeakers on a likely nonfunctional Big Ben.
Dubai will either become a New Rome, or collapse into post-glory ruin and burnt-out skyscrapers after the slavelike workers there rebel.
And I've been considering learning Mandarin Chinese.
Post by: mustanger98 on February 23, 2007, 02:29:52 PM
EMT's could basically put you on ice, not healing you, but placing you in stasis, effectively preventing further damage/death until you could be transported to specialized ER/urgent care facilities.
That's all we do now, try to keep you alive until we get you to an ER.
My prediction: In 50 years Europe will be part of the Caliphate.
That was my understanding on EMT's also. I'm not one, but we're talking about a guy with a rolling aid station, not a MASH unit.
The part about Europe... it's rapidly heading that way. It'll happen to any country or region where the people don't exercise their national sovereignty. To have a country, you have to have borders and you have to decide who is or ain't welcome.
Post by: mustanger98 on February 23, 2007, 02:33:29 PM
From what I have heard, the sea level will be much higher and we will all be living on boats killing people with webbed feet and defending ourselves from pirates running around on old oil tankers.
Yeah, I heard about that two. The last horses will be where I'll be... up there on the top of Mt. Everest.
Post by: Lee on February 23, 2007, 02:51:54 PM
Post by: crt360 on February 23, 2007, 03:42:01 PM
crt, talking toilets already in use in Japan. Toilets analyze your waste for diet, blood and disease.
Great. All I need is toilet hollering, "hey, jackass, ease up on the enchiladas or I'll report you!"
Post by: Sindawe on February 23, 2007, 04:49:10 PM
Quote
And I've been considering learning Mandarin Chinese.
Wise choice.
Post by: Bigjake on February 23, 2007, 04:52:29 PM
Quote
Quote from: El Tejon on Today at 05:48:11 PM
crt, talking toilets already in use in Japan. Toilets analyze your waste for diet, blood and disease.
crt, talking toilets already in use in Japan. Toilets analyze your waste for diet, blood and disease.
IF the democrats don't suceed in getting myself and my brethren killed in some foreign shithole, who knows.
sometimes it seems like if the bastards don't get me killed there, they'll figure out a way that involves separating me from my guns here.
Post by: charby on February 24, 2007, 04:27:00 AM
I'll probably be on my front porch yelling at all the Spanish speaking kids who keep running through my yard. I just hope that they aren't Arabic speaking kids.
-C
Post by: 280plus on February 24, 2007, 04:48:07 AM
Post by: lee n. field on February 24, 2007, 06:13:14 AM
Quote
2057, or what will life be fifty years from now?
Different.
In 2057, barring unlikely medical advances, I will likely be dead, or at the far, far end of the survivorship curve (102).
The United State is now run by a managerial and ruling class with a boundless capacity for self deception. "We're a free country, the free-est around." Yeah, right. "Our economy is healthy." Yeah, right. "We can afford to fight multiple interminable foreign wars with no end in sight". Sure we can.
No moon bases, no jet packs, no flying cars.
In the 1960s the USoA put people on the moon in 8 years from a standing start with 1960s Dodge Rambler technology. Now they're talking a bullshit 15 years to do it with 45 years newer tech. You gotta wonder what's happened.
In 50 years this country will have lost it's status as hegemon, and likely much else.
Post by: Manedwolf on February 24, 2007, 06:24:56 AM
Quote
2057, or what will life be fifty years from now?
Different.
In 2057, barring unlikely medical advances, I will likely be dead, or at the far, far end of the survivorship curve (102).
The United State is now run by a managerial and ruling class with a boundless capacity for self deception. "We're a free country, the free-est around." Yeah, right. "Our economy is healthy." Yeah, right. "We can afford to fight multiple interminable foreign wars with no end in sight". Sure we can.
No moon bases, no jet packs, no flying cars. In the 1960s the USoA put people on the moon in 8 years from a standing start with 1960s Dodge Rambler technology. Now they're talking a bullshit 15 years to do it with 45 years newer tech. You gotta wonder what's happened.
In 50 years this country will have lost it's status as hegemon, and likely much else.
What happened was office politics within NASA. The Russians kept the Soyuz hardware and kept upgrading it.
NASA literally trashed the Apollo designs, plans, specs and all, because that OLD hardware might keep the rising stars with the shuttle program from getting their new corner office. Thus, we've LOST an entire generation of technology that worked. The engineers are dead or retired...they've been bringing back some as consultants, now. They've even been reverse-engineering Apollo hardware in museums to see how things were done, since all the notes were long since trashed.
We literally could not build a Saturn V as it was for about 15 years or so...if that. It's all been lost.
I find it disgusting.
Post by: gunsmith on February 24, 2007, 06:22:23 PM
Post by: CAnnoneer on February 25, 2007, 02:53:46 PM
Post by: RevDisk on February 25, 2007, 03:18:24 PM
I'd be 76. Which isn't that old, comparatively speaking. If I'm unlucky enough to still be alive, things will be different but the same.
I have serious doubts our current economy will be the same in fifty years. Technology will change, as it always does. My guess is that fewer and fewer people will be able to afford the latest technology, especially medical technology.
The next couple of decades will be interesting times. A lot of changes will be made. But I suspect day to day life will remain the same as it has for thousands of years. Get up too early, go to work, work some job you can stand for 8 to 10 hours, go home and get something to eat. Repeat. The cosmetics will change, but the essense will not.
Politicians will continue looting as much money as they can. They'll probably wreck the economy a couple times. Politicians know as much about intelligently managing money as babies know about quantum mechanics. They'll continue stripping civil liberties as quickly as they can. Eventually, folks will get a lump of their freedom back. Then politicians will start chipping them away. Repeat. The cosmetics will change, but the essense will not.
Either the oligarchy will be dead, or very firmly entrenched. Combined with decades of advancement in intrusive population monitoring technology, ugh. I will make this prediction. Either survailance technology will be severely restricted, or it will be everywhere and used against the citizens at every chance.
Long before then, I hope to semi-retire to some place reasonably far from major population and start a small business of some sort. Hopefully with a healthy number of acres under my feet, fully owned.
Post by: mustanger98 on February 25, 2007, 03:43:07 PM
I'll be 83 years old in 2057
I'll probably be on my front porch yelling at all the Spanish speaking kids who keep running through my yard. I just hope that they aren't Arabic speaking kids.
-C
I'll probably be on my front porch yelling at all the Spanish speaking kids who keep running through my yard. I just hope that they aren't Arabic speaking kids.
-C
I'll be 83 too... if I manage to live that long.
I've heard stuff to the effect that, America as we know it, we're outta here by 2020... taken over by everybody else. Given what they're saying about that coming about by illegal immigration, I wonder what the odds are that all these SHTF/TEOTWAWKI threads won't have been purely vain idle chatter.
Post by: Cosmoline on February 25, 2007, 03:59:02 PM
From what I have heard, the sea level will be much higher and we will all be living on boats killing people with webbed feet and defending ourselves from pirates running around on old oil tankers.
No dude, WE will be on the oil tanker
Those guys from DU will be the helpless villagers.
Post by: mfree on February 26, 2007, 04:59:48 AM
Honestly, I don't see it much different. Analog communications will be a thing of the past. Phone lines will be severely antiquated and replaced by a single high-speed data link to the home. I think by then we'll have about 25% of vehicles still running directly on fossil fuels and the rest either plug-in hybrids or direct electric. Houses carrying solar panels, I bet that'll be up to 1/3, as well as most major businesses, once the production curve ramps up and prices fall.
Fashion wise, I don't foresee much real change except another trip through the pastel/neon/earth tone revolutions.
India will be a major world power. China wil probably see a "soft revolution" by then. Russia will descend into the depths of statism along Stalinist lines but without the level of regional power they had before... but will more than likely suffer a "hard revolution". Europe will have bankrupted itself and *attempted* to drag Ireland with it; but Ireland has already seen the light re: taxes and social programs and will emerge as a nation-power along the lines of 70's France, rivalling England.
There will still be fighting in the middle east, probably centered in Iran/Pakistan and internal fighting in Saudi Arabia as the kingdom falls and the people revolt.
I'm losing interest in this thoughtline though... I could make up more but why?
Post by: CAnnoneer on February 26, 2007, 07:28:57 AM
Quote
No dude, WE will be on the oil tanker Those guys from DU will be the helpless villagers.
Those guys from DU will be the helpless villagers. Poetic justice.
Post by: HankB on February 26, 2007, 02:00:42 PM
. . . In the 1960s the USoA put people on the moon in 8 years from a standing start with 1960s Dodge Rambler technology. Now they're talking a bullshit 15 years to do it with 45 years newer tech. You gotta wonder what's happened.
What happened is that rocket scientists like Werner Von Braun aren't running NASA any more, it's run by brown-nosing political hacks more interested in getting an "attaboy" from their poltical patrons than in exploring space.For example, politics played a dominant role in both shuttle disasters.
For the first, the seamless solid boosters proposed by Aerojet in Florida were rejected, as Senator Jake Garn of Utah - a former astronaut himself - insisted that the SRB components be rail-trasportable. Aerojet's seamless SRBs would be recovered by barge, refurbished at Aerojet's coastal facility, and then barged back to the Cape. But they were TOO LONG to be rail-transportable. So with the rail requirement, the sectional booster was chosen, and Morton-Thiokol got the contract. And when the segments sprung a leak during liftoff - a leak that would not have occured with the seamless booster - the Challenger was lost. (Guess what state Morton-Thiokol is located in. Duh.)
In the second case, NASA switched to "green" foam insulation on the liquid fuel tank. NASA's OWN website reported problems with the "green" foam in that it kept falling off in chunks, but going back to what worked wouldn't be doing the "green" thing so political correctness kept them using the new stuff. And a chunk fell off, putting a hole in Columbia's wing, resulting in loss of spacecraft and crew over Texas.
Third case, the Large Space Telescope. A superb optical design was prepared, and the main mirror was ground and polished . . . TO THE WRONG FORMULA! Management, confident in their own omnipotence and eager to save a few dollars, wouldn't even authorize a simple knife-edge test which would have caught this error . . . for a small fraction of 1% of the fabrication cost. Result? A defective mirror was launched.
Ever read the comic strip Dilbert? The pointy-haired manager & others of his ilk are running NASA . . . and the VA . . . and the CDC . . . and the DOT . . . and the DOD . . . and the DOE . . . and the efforts of all the good people below them (and yes, there still are some good people) are undone or actively blocked by these <expletives deleted>.
Post by: El Tejon on February 26, 2007, 03:03:52 PM
Post by: mustanger98 on February 26, 2007, 03:59:28 PM
Quote
No dude, WE will be on the oil tanker Those guys from DU will be the helpless villagers.
Those guys from DU will be the helpless villagers. Poetic justice.
Considering how most of the "helpless villagers" were in the movie and how they all are on DU, I'd have to agree. But how many of us really want to listen to Dennis Hopper and row that tanker/galley? And where are we gonna get enough .50BMG ammo?
Post by: Sindawe on February 26, 2007, 04:20:53 PM
Quote
What caused the muffed mission to Mars a few years ago?
Per the JPL, it was one team using English units (inches, pounds, etc) while another team was using Metric units for their work. Therefore, its all the fault of the FRENCH!!!
http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/msp98/news/mco990930.html
Post by: Laurent du Var on February 26, 2007, 09:57:30 PM
It just can't happen, we won't have it !
Post by: Mannlicher on February 27, 2007, 02:27:13 AM
We knew about cars and planes already, and the natural assumptions then about the future revolved around inprovments to known technology. We did not even comprehend then, the science behind the microchip.
I think the Discovery channel will miss the boat by the same large margin. There is something there, that we could touch if we thought about it, that will change everything again.
Post by: HankB on February 27, 2007, 05:58:19 AM
Hank, you seem to be into this. What caused the muffed mission to Mars a few years ago?
Sindawe hit the nail on the head.But truly, politics were always a part of the U.S. space program.
Why did the Russkies snag an early lead? Ike insisted that civilian rockets be developed for our launches - he didn't want to make our space program look military. It was only after the operational failure of the "civilian" Vanguard rocket that permission was granted - reluctantly - to use the Redstone.
Post by: Manedwolf on February 27, 2007, 06:59:04 AM
back in the thirties, forties and fifties, prognosticators would go on and on about flying cars and space travel. What they did not envision, was the revolution in information handling, or micro electronics.
We knew about cars and planes already, and the natural assumptions then about the future revolved around inprovments to known technology. We did not even comprehend then, the science behind the microchip.
I think the Discovery channel will miss the boat by the same large margin. There is something there, that we could touch if we thought about it, that will change everything again.
We knew about cars and planes already, and the natural assumptions then about the future revolved around inprovments to known technology. We did not even comprehend then, the science behind the microchip.
I think the Discovery channel will miss the boat by the same large margin. There is something there, that we could touch if we thought about it, that will change everything again.
Some writers were prescient. Read Alfred Bester's 1956 The Stars My Destination. Not only was it proto-cyberpunk, with dysfunctional people on dangerous drugs, all-controlling corporations with allegiances, antiheros, genetically modified freaks, even a prison where prisoners were kept in total darkness...but he had TINY computers. Someone had a watch containing a computer that served as their valet, with a holographic head appearing above it to speak to them. No room-sized computers. The guy was way, way, way ahead of his time.
Post by: Antibubba on February 27, 2007, 08:01:11 PM
Quote
I imagine prune juice and vodka will be high on the list of beverages consumed
Known in some circles as a "Piledriver".
Post by: CAnnoneer on February 27, 2007, 08:41:40 PM
Quote
What happened is that rocket scientists like Werner Von Braun aren't running NASA any more, it's run by brown-nosing political hacks more interested in getting an "attaboy" from their poltical patrons than in exploring space.
I think the deeper problem is that rocketry used to be a calling. It certainly was for Dr von Braun and the others of his type. For many functionaries, it has become a job, and a highly political one at that. When the primary concern is administrative CYA all the time, especially in an environment of budgetary cuts and no political margin for error, the resulting corporate culture at the higher levels is stifling at best, and toxic at worst. While the calling is preserved at the lower levels, the major decisions are taken several levels above. Finally, a jaded public has shifted its sense of wonder and danger from the past to an expectation of flawlessness and an atmosphere of witchhunts should disaster strike.
Ultimately, the decrepitude and nepotism of government bureaucracy mirror similar degeneration in private corporate management, especially since for whatever reason, gov believes that it should recruit the managers industry ejects, because of their "business experience" (sigh).