Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Ben on October 01, 2021, 08:50:19 AM
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The stock market has yesterday (and likely today) taken its biggest hit since the covid started. Interestingly, my Ameritrade portfolio of individual stocks actually went up a little bit. My Vanguard index funds of course went down with the overall market. I think I might throw some cash into them today.
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Last month, when the market took a dump, I made my annual $ 7K IRA deposit into VBIAX when it was at a relative low point.
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I'm sticking with my regular program buys.
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The Market is an artificial construct created by politicians their billionaire oligarch campaign contributors and the Fed. It's about money and power.
The proof of that is the near non existence of interest rates in safe places like savings, cash accounts and CDs.
Consider this: If the Fed allowed interest rates to rise slowly up to about 4% over the next 6 months, the stock market would crash because millions of people who attempt to save some $$$ would get out of the market and into safer forms of investing money.
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Wow. Just.... wow.
You forgot the Illuminati and the Buildabergers.... :angel:
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The Market is an artificial construct created by politicians their billionaire oligarch campaign contributors and the Fed. It's about money and power.
The proof of that is the near non existence of interest rates in safe places like savings, cash accounts and CDs.
Consider this: If the Fed allowed interest rates to rise slowly up to about 4% over the next 6 months, the stock market would crash because millions of people who attempt to save some $$$ would get out of the market and into safer forms of investing money.
There is nothing the Fed can do to prevent the system from self-destructing, they can only prolong it. Fiat currencies are fatally flawed and always have a point where they are no longer viable.
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I'm sticking with my regular program buys.
#metoo
20% of pay every 2 weeks
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I received my e-docs for my RMD yesterday. I’m dragging my feet and not going to draw anything out until I see the inevitable market rebound.
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This thread made me curious. I looked at my Vanguard accounts and noticed something interesting. There's a consistent period of downs centered on the 20th of each month. +/- 1 day. Not huge downs, but still low relative to remaining days. For the last year it's regular enough across all three accounts that I' seriously considering using it as my default "buy day". I'll do more research this weekend.
Brad
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Between Evergrande and people eventually realizing that baskin Robbins 46th flavor is a disaster I predict rough market times ahead. I got ammo, puzzling on lamp oil and whatever else I need as we return to the Stone Age.
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Nuts. I was away from the computer most of the days and the market seems to already have made up the loss. Oh well.
As an unemployed bum, I no longer do the 15% out of every paycheck to my TSP. Nor do I contribute money in the bank to stocks at set intervals. I'm closer to "use it" mode than "grow it" mode. I only will add money anymore during significant market drops, like at the beginning of covid.
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Comments made by Janet Yellen the other day didn't help matters either.
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I don't have much of a 401 having just started over last year. Been thinking on it all week, been semi defensive all year but now just moved everything out of stocks. Will wait, re-buy my dividend fund and max out contributions when it crashes this winter.
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Revisiting this...
Dow is up 400 today, recovering yesterday's losses... and my two primary tech holdings are getting absolutely sodomized...
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They've been talking about tech continuing to take big hits through 2022. The only tech I own is in whatever Vanguard puts in my index funds, but whatever percent that is will surely drag those funds down.
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I don't have much of a 401 having just started over last year. Been thinking on it all week, been semi defensive all year but now just moved everything out of stocks. Will wait, re-buy my dividend fund and max out contributions when it crashes this winter.
Market timing doesn't always work, when saving for retirement it's best just to make regular payments into a a diverse portfolio and do minor adjustments. I've been doing that at a min of 15% of annual salary for the past 22 years and I have amassed quite sizable amount. I was self managing it until I hit $150k or so, now I have 2 financial advisors that do that for me and they are doing a better job overall than I could. I've managed to weather everything since 2000, I tried to market time when I was self managed and I ended up leaving some gains on the table, fortunately I didn't get to much of a loss on speculation of different stocks. I'm 14-15 years away from retirement, I'll probably go very conservative with my investments in 10 years or so as I get closer to that retirement age.
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I am probably two years or less from retirement, and I am currently in 54% stocks and 46% fixed income and cash. I anticipate staying approximately 60/40 through retirement.
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Revisiting this...
Dow is up 400 today, recovering yesterday's losses... and my two primary tech holdings are getting absolutely sodomized...
As of 3:30 CT, Dow Jones was only up 311 pts.
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"Market timing doesn't
always work"
Fixed that for you.
The only market timing that works long term is a continuous plan of regular investments and not turning into a mouth breathing panic monkey when the market does a downturn.
People on the intardnets who tell you that they can let you know their secret for making millions by timing them market for the low, low prices of $XX are lying.
Back in 2007 or so when the *expletive deleted*it hit the fan we had a couple of people here bail out of the markets, locking in their losses. Then they never re-entered the market. But did come back to whine about how much money they lost out on when the markets rebounded.
At the same time I watch my accounts lose between 75-80% of their overall value. It was rough to watch, but I doubled down, upped my contributions as much as I could, and quit obsessing over the numbers.
I'll retire in a few years as a multimillionaire.
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I'll retire in a few years as a multimillionaire.
Hopefully that buys more than a loaf of bread in a few years.
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"Market timing doesn't always work"
Fixed that for you.
The only market timing that works long term is a continuous plan of regular investments and not turning into a mouth breathing panic monkey when the market does a downturn.
People on the intardnets who tell you that they can let you know their secret for making millions by timing them market for the low, low prices of $XX are lying.
Back in 2007 or so when the *expletive deleted*it hit the fan we had a couple of people here bail out of the markets, locking in their losses. Then they never re-entered the market. But did come back to whine about how much money they lost out on when the markets rebounded.
At the same time I watch my accounts lose between 75-80% of their overall value. It was rough to watch, but I doubled down, upped my contributions as much as I could, and quit obsessing over the numbers.
I'll retire in a few years as a multimillionaire.
If I wrote that exactly, someone would try to pick a argument with me on here. I think they are all scared of you.
I should be a paper millionaire in 8-10 years. Hell, if I retire at 63 and I live to 85 my pension will have paid out close a million to me.
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I'm stickin' with my buy plan as well. I like the secure stuff. You know; guns, ammo, reloading supplies, toilet paper ...
Woody
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"If I wrote that exactly, someone would try to pick a argument with me on here. I think they are all scared of you. "
They've obviously never seen a picture of you. Hell, even I'm scared of you... :rofl:
"Hell, if I retire at 63 and I live to 85 my pension will have paid out close a million to me. "
Iowa public employee pension? Nice. I'd like to have had a job with a pension on top of my 401k, but outside of public sector there's very little in the way of pension jobs now.
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"If I wrote that exactly, someone would try to pick a argument with me on here. I think they are all scared of you. "
They've obviously never seen a picture of you. Hell, even I'm scared of you... :rofl:
"Hell, if I retire at 63 and I live to 85 my pension will have paid out close a million to me. "
Iowa public employee pension? Nice. I'd like to have had a job with a pension on top of my 401k, but outside of public sector there's very little in the way of pension jobs now.
And I pay into it every paycheck. I'd probably have a bigger nest egg investing the money in an IRA but it's nice to know you have a set amount every month in retirement.
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Since I have been in healthcare my entire working life, I have never had a pension. My wife does as a school teacher. I bought myself a pension a couple of years ago by buying a single-premium fixed annuity. It started paying me $ 1000/month for life earlier this year. If I die before the annuity premium is paid out, my wife gets the remaining premium as a lump sum. if I were to wait until FRA to start collecting SS, this will give me a fixed income of about $ 4500/month with SS and the annuity, but I doubt I will wait until FRA.
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I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily. I lost nothing in 2008-2009 until I got back in early. A divorce and a debt or two and I have twice liquidated small 401s. Worth it to me. Now I contribute every week but the 401 is a gambling account. If I live to 60 I have a pension coming and maybe SS, or we are all playing societal collapse in which case nothing matters.
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These days I consider myself lucky to have a pension. Because I separated early, my pension is not as high as if I would have waited until right now to retire. I just started drawing it this last January. Still, that plus social security will cover all my necessity expenses.
Right now those expenses are covered by the pension and dividends from Vanguard. I'm hitting the big 6-2 soon, and will file for SS as soon as I do. Then the Vanguard payouts become fun money. I see no reason to wait on the SS. A smaller amount early is still an amount I can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months.
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^^^I am still waffling on when to retire and when to start drawing SS. My wife will likely retire at the end of this school year. I had always thought that I would retire within a year of her, but that in large part depends on healthcare insurance. She will be eligible for Medicare next year, but I am not eligible until 2025. Part of the reason I bought the annuity was to help cover any monthly healthcare insurance costs after her retirement.
In terms of SS, I am leaning towards not waiting until FRA, since SS will cover a chunk of monthly expenses, thus reducing the amount withdrawn from the retirement accounts, allowing them to keep accumulating a return. On Bogleheads, the usual consensus is that anyone who starts taking SS before age 70 is an idiot, if you can afford to do so.
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In terms of SS, I am leaning towards not waiting until FRA, since SS will cover a chunk of monthly expenses, thus reducing the amount withdrawn from the retirement accounts, allowing them to keep accumulating a return.
This is my thinking on it. I think I can grow my money faster than the gov can.
I don't understand the Bogleheads and others, but yeah, that seems to be the "standard" regarding SS on most of the investment forums, other than maybe the Early Retirement forums.
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"I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily."
That's not really market timing in the classical sense of the definition, which is generally a lot more "active."
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"A smaller amount early is still an amount I can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months."
Do they even have buses where you live? Or is it still horse-drawn buckboards with extra seats? :rofl:
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"A smaller amount early is still an amount I can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months."
Do they even have buses where you live? Or is it still horse-drawn buckboards with extra seats? :rofl:
Oh, right. I should have said, "Run over by a team of mules." =D
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"I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily."
That's not really market timing in the classical sense of the definition, which is generally a lot more "active."
Agree. Buying big dips is not really timing the market. Really, neither is taking some money out after a fast, high rise, if it's tax efficient for you to do so. It's doing the roller coaster that does people in, thinking they can outsmart the market in the long term.
Also, big dips is BIG dips - not the crap that has been going on for the last week. I really like to buy into the really big panic dips, which might only happen every 1-5 years. Other people's runaway emotion and panic, combined with patience on my part, has been pretty darn good for me.
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Also not interested in waiting until 70 to cash SS. Be a hell of a note to punch out at 69.
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Also not interested in waiting until 70 to cash SS. Be a hell of a note to punch out at 69.
That's the game I'm playing start taking if I retire at 62-63, wait until I'm 65 or 67.
All depends how much my monthly income with my first retirement checks. I may even go work as an "fix it/consulting" agronomist for 2-3 years after I retire from my current job. If I can make 100k a year for a couple years, might be worth it.