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Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 08:29:40 AM

Title: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 08:29:40 AM
This is not unexpected, given the CA plan was that legalizing pot would be their tax cash cow. What's interesting is that it looks like Newsom is going to help them out - something you would not see him doing for most other industries.

 https://news.yahoo.com/california-pot-companies-warn-impending-202704687.html?guccounter=1

Part of the claim is that illegal pot sells for half of what legal pot does. Interestingly, I recently read that the Oregon pot industry is also being hit by black market sales, but OR has much more lenient regulations and taxes for pot than does CA, and they are still making money (both legal pot shops and the state and cities) hand over fist.


On the tangent, I find I have been flip-flopping regarding my views on legal drugs. For a very long time, I was very much against legal drugs. Then as I got older I got a little more libertarian, and a combination of "who cares what other people do?" and a hope that things like no-knocks, that pretty much started via the war on drugs, might be reduced got me at least a little pro-legal drugs.

Now I'm back to being against them, and it's all from what I've seen over the border from me in Oregon. I go to Ontario OR a good bit. When I first moved here a few years ago, I didn't give a second thought to leaving my car unlocked pretty much wherever I went in Ontario. Now I constantly lock the car and also make sure to stay in condition yellow. Why? Pot shops. In just a couple of years of the dozen or so pot shops in this city, crime has gone up like crazy.

They are having more car thefts than ever before, more robberies, and you can see a whole new demographic of unsavory characters that have shown up in that city. Yet it's okay with the city council, because pot is making the city rich. They apparently sell more pot in Ontario than they do in Portland (partially thanks to Idaho potheads). You didn't see this when people were illegally buying their pot from the guy on the street.

Watching the quality of life deteriorate in this way has me going back to my old conservative ways.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: HankB on December 19, 2021, 10:13:42 AM
If I were a pot smoker who hadn't completely addled his brain and was still functional, I'd grow my own rather than pay the artificially inflated prices heavily taxed pot shops charge.

From the story, it seems that a lot of people are either doing that, or buying from others who do.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: MillCreek on December 19, 2021, 10:29:25 AM
^^^I don't follow it very closely, but I think in Washington, even if you need pot for true medical purposes, you cannot grow your own.  You have to buy it from a pot shop so the state can get their cut. 
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: WLJ on December 19, 2021, 10:34:36 AM
^^^I don't follow it very closely, but I think in Washington, even if you need pot for true medical purposes, you cannot grow your own.  You have to buy it from a pot shop so the state can get their cut.

But can you grow your own if you don't need it?
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: ConstitutionCowboy on December 19, 2021, 10:38:23 AM
Quote from: HankB
Those who work for a living are being BURIED by those who vote for a living.

Aint that the truth! To vote for a living is to sell one's self into political servitude.

As for the pot crisis in California, well ............. Eh!

Woody



Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: HankB on December 19, 2021, 10:43:05 AM
^^^I don't follow it very closely, but I think in Washington, even if you need pot for true medical purposes, you cannot grow your own.  You have to buy it from a pot shop so the state can get their cut. 

Even if growing your own is not allowed, when pot is legal the odds of being caught for growing your own are minuscule if you're discrete and keep your mouth shut. Going into business for yourself and selling your "home grown" weed (or even giving it to pothead "friends") is what will get you in trouble.

I bet there are a bunch of legitimate users (e.g., people who use it to relieve the side effects of chemotherapy) growing their own who are - and will remain - below the radar.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: MillCreek on December 19, 2021, 11:16:46 AM
Even if growing your own is not allowed, when pot is legal the odds of being caught for growing your own are minuscule if you're discrete and keep your mouth shut. Going into business for yourself and selling your "home grown" weed (or even giving it to pothead "friends") is what will get you in trouble.

I bet there are a bunch of legitimate users (e.g., people who use it to relieve the side effects of chemotherapy) growing their own who are - and will remain - below the radar.

I think you are absolutely right.  I have read anecdotal stories of people with 2-3 plants for personal use. They aren't sucking up so much electricity that they come to the attention of the power company for a commercial grow farm, and you can't track the operation by smell.  There is a commercial pot farm about three miles away from me, and every time I ride my bicycle past it, I can start smelling it from about 1/4 mile away.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 11:17:45 AM
growing their own who are - and will remain - below the radar.

I have a friend from High School that I still keep in touch with and he has been growing his own (currently has an entire spare bedroom dedicated to it) for well over 40 years (in CA). He's 62. He currently claims it's all medicinal, but I know when he was younger he was growing it recreationally for himself and those of his friends who were loadies.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: grampster on December 19, 2021, 11:22:04 AM
Interesting topic.  I have noticed that the north end of our fair city and north burbs of Grand Rapids has had and increase in burglary attempts, car theft, theft from cars.  I hadn't thought about the legal pot stores.  There is at least one that I know about and maybe more as I don't pay any attention to them.
Here in Michigan one can grow a few plants for your own use.  You have to grow them so they are not obvious to anyone going by your property.  You can also legally carry a small amount in your vehicle.  I think the tax at the pot stores have to charge is 30%.  Somebody told me that, so I don't know if it's accurate.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Nick1911 on December 19, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
I think you are absolutely right.  I have read anecdotal stories of people with 2-3 plants for personal use. They aren't sucking up so much electricity that they come to the attention of the power company for a commercial grow farm, and you can't track the operation by smell.  There is a commercial pot farm about three miles away from me, and every time I ride my bicycle past it, I can start smelling it from about 1/4 mile away.

Also agreed.  I'd say it's broadly applicable to victimless crimes.  The nature of them means that there is no one to report it; it's very difficult to detect if the perpetrator does their thing and keeps quiet about it.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 11:27:21 AM
Interesting topic.  I have noticed that the north end of our fair city and north burbs of Grand Rapids has had and increase in burglary attempts, car theft, theft from cars.  I hadn't thought about the legal pot stores.  There is at least one that I know about and maybe more as I don't pay any attention to them.

Certainly a lot of factors come can come into play. I wonder if the crime and undesirable residents increase would be the same in my example city if there were only one or two stores instead of a freakin' dozen. Or if Ontario were not on the border of a non-legal state which created a demand to support all the extra pot shops.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 11:33:59 AM
And from Oregon:

https://www.kivitv.com/news/awash-in-illegal-pot-farms-oregon-plans-millions-for-relief
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Pb on December 19, 2021, 11:37:04 AM
Is MJ harder to grow than other plants?  I'm trying to figure out why is is still expensive if it is legal.  I mean, tobacco isn't that much.  ???
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 11:40:46 AM
Is MJ harder to grow than other plants?  I'm trying to figure out why is is still expensive if it is legal.  I mean, tobacco isn't that much.  ???

Taxes, regulations, and a very big expense - air filtration for the greenhouses to keep the freakin' skunky smell out of residential communities. The whole reason a lot of these states made pot legal is because the state and local governments figured they could step in and take the place of the cartels - making all the money via their cuts from the growers and sellers.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Perd Hapley on December 19, 2021, 01:14:17 PM
This is not unexpected, given the CA plan was that legalizing pot would be their tax cash cow. What's interesting is that it looks like Newsom is going to help them out - something you would not see him doing for most other industries.

 https://news.yahoo.com/california-pot-companies-warn-impending-202704687.html?guccounter=1

Part of the claim is that illegal pot sells for half of what legal pot does. Interestingly, I recently read that the Oregon pot industry is also being hit by black market sales, but OR has much more lenient regulations and taxes for pot than does CA, and they are still making money (both legal pot shops and the state and cities) hand over fist.


On the tangent, I find I have been flip-flopping regarding my views on legal drugs. For a very long time, I was very much against legal drugs. Then as I got older I got a little more libertarian, and a combination of "who cares what other people do?" and a hope that things like no-knocks, that pretty much started via the war on drugs, might be reduced got me at least a little pro-legal drugs.

Now I'm back to being against them, and it's all from what I've seen over the border from me in Oregon. I go to Ontario OR a good bit. When I first moved here a few years ago, I didn't give a second thought to leaving my car unlocked pretty much wherever I went in Ontario. Now I constantly lock the car and also make sure to stay in condition yellow. Why? Pot shops. In just a couple of years of the dozen or so pot shops in this city, crime has gone up like crazy.

They are having more car thefts than ever before, more robberies, and you can see a whole new demographic of unsavory characters that have shown up in that city. Yet it's okay with the city council, because pot is making the city rich. They apparently sell more pot in Ontario than they do in Portland (partially thanks to Idaho potheads). You didn't see this when people were illegally buying their pot from the guy on the street.

Watching the quality of life deteriorate in this way has me going back to my old conservative ways.

I'm (so far) in the second phase, as I don't see the justification for stopping people from making stupid decisions for themselves. I wonder if the increase in crime you're seeing is part of the larger trend, and not due to drug policy.

Then again, maybe it's just more evidence that we can only be a nation of minimal regulations if we self-regulate through religion, keep our families intact through old-fashioned, straight-laced social pressure, etc.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 01:33:50 PM
I'm (so far) in the second phase, as I don't see the justification for stopping people from making stupid decisions for themselves. I wonder if the increase in crime you're seeing is part of the larger trend, and not due to drug policy.

Maybe, but this area of the country hasn't seen the big crime increases (e.g., mass lootings) you see in the bigger cities and blue states. There's not enough evidence for 100% correlation, but pot shops + crime increase (including robbing said pot shops) seems a bit more than coincidental. If it were an overall trend of more crime, I would expect to see similar increases in nearby cities and towns, but there aren't any.

Like I said, I was going more towards "live and let live" until I saw negative changes in my AO. Now "not in my backyard" has a higher weighting for me than their freedom to do drugs.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: BobR on December 19, 2021, 01:55:59 PM
Is MJ harder to grow than other plants?  I'm trying to figure out why is is still expensive if it is legal.  I mean, tobacco isn't that much.  ???

Not hard at all to grow. When I was in high school back in the late 60s we would disperse seeds around a few ponds out on the impact areas on the ranges out on Ft Sill. It grew just fine without any tending. You could also find it growing on the edges of the Red River south of Lawton going to Texas.

bob
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: dogmush on December 19, 2021, 01:57:16 PM
Places in Europe that are famous for legal MJ don't seem to have an added crime problem. We also don't see added problems from Pot Shops in FL since the recent medical marijuana legalization. At least if there is more crime, it doesn't stand out from the background of meth head crime.

I wonder what it is about how Oregon is doing legal pot shops that is causing the extra crime.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Ben on December 19, 2021, 02:50:50 PM
I wonder what it is about how Oregon is doing legal pot shops that is causing the extra crime.

I can't say that it's all of Oregon. My example is just this one data point that I've been watching change. Not that it does or doesn't have anything to do with it, but it IS a historically, very, very conservative area. Just WAGing it, but I would guess at least 75% of the pre-pot shop county population would have been against legalization.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Bogie on December 19, 2021, 08:03:37 PM
I don't really see a problem with the baked folks, or even those who provide their party favors...
 
It's other stuff that may run on the fringes, such as meth...
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: AZRedhawk44 on December 19, 2021, 08:12:43 PM
If I were a pot smoker who hadn't completely addled his brain and was still functional, I'd grow my own rather than pay the artificially inflated prices heavily taxed pot shops charge.

From the story, it seems that a lot of people are either doing that, or buying from others who do.

There's CONSIDERABLE wrath from the MJ consuming crowd for the last 50+ years in regards to this issue.  My understanding is they will be damned before they will contribute one red cent to the same government that imprisoned thousands of growers/dealers/distributors, by means of legalized MJ taxes.

Most of the MJ market is still black market out of principle.  And legalizing weed has lowered the black market price since risk is now a lot lower and hobbyist level production is less risky.  Honestly, it's probably MORE decentralized now than it was when it was fully illegal.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Bogie on December 19, 2021, 09:25:16 PM
So, how would one go about acquiring some good seeds?
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: BlueStarLizzard on December 19, 2021, 09:41:36 PM
I would say the crime element probably has a LOT more to do with governments trying to regulate the stuff like they do the other heavily taxed vices on a group of people who have already been breaking the law for decades.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: zxcvbob on December 19, 2021, 09:43:59 PM
So, how would one go about acquiring some good seeds?

That's a good question (Academically, of course.) I've heard that people buy seeds in Scandanavian countries, but they how to smuggle them back to the States?  Perhaps there's a black market for seeds here.  I wouldn't know.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: Andiron on December 19, 2021, 10:50:22 PM
This is not unexpected, given the CA plan was that legalizing pot would be their tax cash cow. What's interesting is that it looks like Newsom is going to help them out - something you would not see him doing for most other industries.

 https://news.yahoo.com/california-pot-companies-warn-impending-202704687.html?guccounter=1

Part of the claim is that illegal pot sells for half of what legal pot does. Interestingly, I recently read that the Oregon pot industry is also being hit by black market sales, but OR has much more lenient regulations and taxes for pot than does CA, and they are still making money (both legal pot shops and the state and cities) hand over fist.


On the tangent, I find I have been flip-flopping regarding my views on legal drugs. For a very long time, I was very much against legal drugs. Then as I got older I got a little more libertarian, and a combination of "who cares what other people do?" and a hope that things like no-knocks, that pretty much started via the war on drugs, might be reduced got me at least a little pro-legal drugs.

Now I'm back to being against them, and it's all from what I've seen over the border from me in Oregon. I go to Ontario OR a good bit. When I first moved here a few years ago, I didn't give a second thought to leaving my car unlocked pretty much wherever I went in Ontario. Now I constantly lock the car and also make sure to stay in condition yellow. Why? Pot shops. In just a couple of years of the dozen or so pot shops in this city, crime has gone up like crazy.

They are having more car thefts than ever before, more robberies, and you can see a whole new demographic of unsavory characters that have shown up in that city. Yet it's okay with the city council, because pot is making the city rich. They apparently sell more pot in Ontario than they do in Portland (partially thanks to Idaho potheads). You didn't see this when people were illegally buying their pot from the guy on the street.

Watching the quality of life deteriorate in this way has me going back to my old conservative ways.

It's strange,  isn't it?  I made the same journey.  Naturally conservative, to a socially liberal Libertarian, to... I don't know.  Conservatives conserve nothing, and the Left and Libertarians have lead us to the current hellscape.

Politics have made strange bedfellows for me in the past few years.  Mosley wasn't wrong with his predictions of the future.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: HankB on December 19, 2021, 11:06:17 PM
So, how would one go about acquiring some good seeds?
That's a good question - it may not be too hard if you know where to look.

Back when I was in college, there was a newspaper article about a woman (then already elderly) who had been selling poppy seeds through ads in the back of various gardening magazines for decades. She thought these poppies were lovely flowers.

Opium poppies.  :O

She of course insisted she had no idea they were illegal - they were just flowers, after all - and IIRC there was no evidence she was involved in the opium/heroin trade beyond selling her flower seeds. Don't know what, if anything, happened to her legally. Even back then, the news media seldom published a follow-up piece. I suspect she was just told to cease and desist.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: BobR on December 19, 2021, 11:37:35 PM
So, how would one go about acquiring some good seeds?

If I were buying seeds today I would use  this guy  (https://ilgm.com/?aff=4348)

bob
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: RoadKingLarry on December 20, 2021, 10:04:45 AM
That's a good question - it may not be too hard if you know where to look.

Back when I was in college, there was a newspaper article about a woman (then already elderly) who had been selling poppy seeds through ads in the back of various gardening magazines for decades. She thought these poppies were lovely flowers.

Opium poppies.  :O

She of course insisted she had no idea they were illegal - they were just flowers, after all - and IIRC there was no evidence she was involved in the opium/heroin trade beyond selling her flower seeds. Don't know what, if anything, happened to her legally. Even back then, the news media seldom published a follow-up piece. I suspect she was just told to cease and desist.

My late aunt was very much a flower growing person, she grew several varieties of poppies, I suspect at least one or two of them were "opium poppies".  She also grew castor bean plants as they are very ornamental. One summer she had a particularly nice stand of castor bean plants that were 8' or better, probably 20-30 plants. That year they were getting regular low and slow helicopter fly-overs out on their remote farm. I was there for one of them and they flew over low enough we could feel the rotor wash. We waved and motioned for them to come on down but they didn't.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: RoadKingLarry on December 20, 2021, 10:06:20 AM
So, how would one go about acquiring some good seeds?

I've got a friend that grows "breeding stock" for the local legal trade. He gets as much as $15 per seed for some of his stuff.
Title: Re: California Pot Industry Warns of Imminent Collapse
Post by: HankB on December 20, 2021, 11:44:28 AM
If I were buying seeds today I would use  this guy  (https://ilgm.com/?aff=4348)

bob
Probably works out of a DEA field office.  :rofl:  (Kind of like buying Glock fun switches off of Amazon and expecting nobody will find out.   :facepalm:  )