Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Perd Hapley on February 01, 2013, 10:10:38 AM
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How long will shelves be bare?
What will post-craze prices look like?
Why?
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90 days longer.
.22 will be pretty much unavailable until May, along with 9mm and .223.
.308/.30-06/7.62x39/.45acp/.40 will resurface by the end of February, but still command a premium for several months. Prices will start to fall in June.
The myriad of hunting cartridges are still available to my experience, and will remain available, but will see a 10-20% increase in price.
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Yeah, I'm thinking pretty much what AZRedhawk44 said. I expect all ammo to increase in price permanently even when stocks are back to normal.
I'm thinking of getting out of .45ACP. I should probably sell it now. >:D
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For once I agree with AZred. However, I also predict that in about 4-6 months there will be an excessive surplus, especially of bulk practice ammo. In 6 months there will be an excessive surplus of magazines and AR stuff, also.
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1) A while.
2) Different.
3) Because that's the way it is.
What do I win?
Brad
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For once I agree with AZred. However, I also predict that in about 4-6 months there will be an excessive surplus, especially of bulk practice ammo. In 6 months there will be an excessive surplus of magazines and AR stuff, also.
I doubt it. Ammo manufacturers tend not to expand their production during these rushes. Because why build up excessive capacity that is only needed once or twice a decade. Due to inventory taxes, makes virtually no sense to keep a massive amount of product on the shelves.
Ammo prices will be high for a while. Supply and demand. They'll go down, but not 90's level. Prices have been going up for a long while. Metal prices have gone up, so have fuel/energy prices. Cheap surplus is getting harder and harder to find.
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I doubt it. Ammo manufacturers tend not to expand their production during these rushes. Because why build up excessive capacity that is only needed once or twice a decade. Due to inventory taxes, makes virtually no sense to keep a massive amount of product on the shelves.
ATK/Federal aren't going to stop pumping out 9mm and .223, sure.
Olin/Winchester will keep on making 9mm.
UMC/Remington... I dunno. Never really been a consumer of their products. Hate their rimfire ammo, and their centerfire has always been more expensive than WWB or Federal. Not sure what they would focus on, and don't really care.
Hornady/Black Hills/GA Arms/boutique: Irrelevant in this period of high demand.
But Tula/Wolf/*Bear will have x39 shipments coming into port from factories that run 7.62x39 as primary production, and .223 as secondary. They will stop .223 production to pump out x39.
Prvi/GGG/S&B/Fiocchi can choose to either dilute the .223/9mm presence and weaken profitability, or aim for the next niche and monopolize it during this peak in demand. That would be .30 caliber rifle and .40/.45 handgun.
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As a friend of mine keeps saying- once the wives see the credit card balances and reality sets in, there will be a lot of stuff coming onto the secondary markets and prices will start coming down.
I'm predicting about the end of June- people will have their tax refunds spent by then.
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Due to inventory taxes
Say what?
As a friend of mine keeps saying- once the wives see the credit card balances and reality sets in, there will be a lot of stuff coming onto the secondary markets and prices will start coming down.
I don't know. I don't see to many people selling off the things they got. Especially if they start taking a loss on price.
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As a friend of mine keeps saying- once the wives see the credit card balances and reality sets in, there will be a lot of stuff coming onto the secondary markets and prices will start coming down.
I'm predicting about the end of June- people will have their tax refunds spent by then.
I don't see a sell off, but when someone just threw a $3500 AR on the credit card I don't see the little woman approving any more gun stuff for a while!
I predict many of those who are caught up right now will be out of the gun market for a while on new purchases.
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I don't see a sell off, but when someone just threw a $3500 AR on the credit card I don't see the little woman approving any more gun stuff for a while!
I predict many of those who are caught up right now will be out of the gun market for a while on new purchases.
True, but a lot of them were first-time or rare buyers anyway.
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This afternoon my LGS had a case of some off brand .223 FMJ ($14.95 a box of 20) and 3 100rd boxes of American Eagle .223 ($69.95).
I didn't buy any.
He also had 2 M4 style ARs on the rack A CMMG and a Bushmaster, $1899.
I didn't buy any.
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I predict that revolvers will get more popular.....esp. with the lack of autoloader ammo....
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I predict that ammo will be in short supply until more becomes available.
(oddly enough, the store I went to in Billings last week had more 9mm than anything else ;/ )
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I'm fine. It's still there.
http://www.mrpopculture.com/thereport/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/BarneyF.jpg
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I predict that revolvers will get more popular.....esp. with the lack of autoloader ammo....
I set aside the 9mm I know I'm going to need for classes and matches for the next 4 months, and that left me with a little less than a case of 9mm FMJ. So I don't deplete that 9mm too far, my range trips are including more revolver shooting.
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It won't end until the threat of gun/ammo bans are gone. Once there is a final vote on the various federal level proposals then the panic buying will ease off. There still may be localized panics depending on each state and the local laws (like Illinois), but it will die down, once everyone thinks they have "enough".
Just reading through other threads and other fora, most people don't believe they have "enough" at the moment and are looking to either buy more when it becomes available or start reloading. So I predict a continued run on both factory ammo and supplies for at least another 9 months.
If I was going to start a business, it would be ammo manufacturing. I don't see it ever getting back to "normal" again and here's why.
1. The surplus from the end of the cold war is gone. The salad days of the mid '90's when the former Warsaw Pact opened their warehouses and started shipping everything they could turn into hard currency is done. That cupboard is bare, and won't happen again in our lifetime.
2. Same with US/NATO/South Africa, etc. It was called "Surplus" for a reason. There is no "Surplus" of anything anymore. (ammo, guns,or mags).
3. Ammo manufacturers don't seem to be adding capacity. The war in Iraq is over, Afghanistan will be winding down, the military os getting smaller and raw materials (lead and brass) are getting more expensive (transport costs seem to be the driver.) State Taxes and labor costs are what drove Olin (Winchester Ammunition) from East Alton, IL to Oxford, MS. Gov. Quinn and Mayor Emanuel should be thrilled.
4. I only see the need for ammo increasing. With that many more firearms sold, they'll get used.
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most people don't believe they have "enough" at the moment
Especially if "enough" has to last the rest of your life =(
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Forgot about this thread. How did we do?
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There are still ol' boys who show up when Wally World opens, and they'll buy up the .22LR stuff...
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The last 6 months, the ammo shelves at Academy Sports have been full. Early on it was mostly just the few major calibers. Diversity has been getting better.
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This thread is from 2013. :lol:
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This thread is from 2013. :lol:
Yes, it is. I wonder who dredged it up ... >:D
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Yes, it is. I wonder who dredged it up ... >:D
I think he likes to read his own text (similar to, they like to hear themselves speak)
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I think he likes to read his own text (similar to, they like to hear themselves speak)
Well, not in this case. ;) I really have no idea how well our predictions from 2013 worked out, and I was hoping someone else has a better memory of pre-Covid pricing & availability.
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Was at Bass Pro Shops yesterday and they had good quantities of 9mm, .223/5.56, .45 ACP, .22 rimfire, and shotgun shells, as well as some .40, a little 10mm, and some other rifle rounds. Didn't see any .30 Super Carry, .38 Spec, .357, .41, or .44 Mag out on the shelves. I neglected to check on critical reloading components like primers or powder. Prices of course were up significantly from just a couple of years ago - WAY more than the laughable "official" inflation numbers fed.gov puts out.
ALL the guns at Bass Pro Shops have trigger locks, and they WON'T remove them until AFTER you purchase the gun. The salesman - a retired guy working there part time - who I talked to said a lot of people - including him - don't want to buy a gun without trying the trigger, and that some people go and try the gun elsewhere and then come to BPS or Cabela's to buy. I told him BPS management obviously doesn't want to sell guns, so I'll honor their wishes by shopping - and buying - elsewhere. He nodded and said "I hear that a lot." I also said "And I'll tell you, a lot of your non-gun merchandise is available from other sources, so I'll probably buy that elsewhere too." His response was "I get that a lot, too. But I'm only here part time so . . ." and he shrugged.
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I think he likes to read his own text (similar to, they like to hear themselves speak)
Not to speak for Perd, but I take the necro as looking at the shortage we had when this thread first appeared, and how things are now, after we had another ammo shortage.
I don't have numbers, but I know that I got some killer bulk deals just before this last shortage (and wish I'd bought 10x more), which shows we recovered once to plenty of ammo and bargain prices.
I'm starting to see reasonable deals again, but not near the pre-covid prices. Some stuff is still just plain ridiculous. I need .300BLK, but I'm not desperate enough for the still high prices (>$1/rnd) on that. I'm seeing known brand brass 9mm down to the 35 cent range.
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ALL the guns at Bass Pro Shops have trigger locks, and they WON'T remove them until AFTER you purchase the gun. The salesman - a retired guy working there part time - who I talked to said a lot of people - including him - don't want to buy a gun without trying the trigger, and that some people go and try the gun elsewhere and then come to BPS or Cabela's to buy. I told him BPS management obviously doesn't want to sell guns, so I'll honor their wishes by shopping - and buying - elsewhere. He nodded and said "I hear that a lot." I also said "And I'll tell you, a lot of your non-gun merchandise is available from other sources, so I'll probably buy that elsewhere too." His response was "I get that a lot, too. But I'm only here part time so . . ." and he shrugged.
I've been complaining about that at Cabelas since that trigger lock thing started. It's insulting. Early on, the employees agreed with me. I don't think there are any pre-BP employees left at my Cabelas though. I only "buy" a gun at Cabelas now when I have the Cabelas credit card points. I like to use the Cabelas card at my LGS, then when I have the points for a gun, go to Cabelas and get one for free. =D
Also, it takes like four employees and 45 minutes to walk out of that store with a gun anymore with all the "verification checks" they do. Then they tape up your case so you can't open it between the gun counter and the front door. I'm waiting for BP to tell them that guns have to be taped thusly:
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fs3files.core77.com%2Fblog%2Fimages%2F382348_81_44473_r5VRFnBIR.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
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Bass Pro seems to always be a bit more expensive than other stores and their selection isn't really all that great at the stores. Bigger selection of scopes than guns. I used to swing by the one in Pearland whenever I went up to Houston, but not much anymore.
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I think he likes to read his own text (similar to, they like to hear themselves speak)
The Gul Dukat of APS :rofl:
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Just out of curiosity on the trigger lock tangent, I did a quick search, and the following was repeated at more than one website. I have no idea if it's true or not, but it would certainly fit in with "corporate attorney recommendation".
Apparently, at a Bass Pro in KC, a guy came in and wanted to check out a pistol. When the gun was handed to him, he proceed to put a round in the chamber and blew his brains out at the counter. Hence the new policy.
https://www.1911forum.com/threads/cabelas-new-trigger-lock-policy.974784/