Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Brad Johnson on May 20, 2019, 01:59:29 PM
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It's gonna get ugly this afternoon down here in Ternader Alley. Yesterday the SPC was predicting CAPEs in the 3500-4000 range. Today they've updated that to 4000-4500 with localized areas approaching 5000. Shear predictions have been upped from 45 kts to 60+ and what was already pretty unstable atmospheric conditions are "... rapidly destabilizing more quickly than initially predicted". Ugh. That means a high likelihood of violent, long-lived tornadoes and widespread hail 4+ inches in diameter. They can't move the Risk Assessment any higher because they're out of categories. About all they can do is add "this isn't just really bad, it's really really bad" to their notices.
Local NWSFO personnel are vocalizing extreme nervousness. I've only seen them this on edge one other time and it was the day Moore, Oklahoma almost ceased to be. Lovely, especially considering my parents and my brother's family are perfectly centered in the highest risk area.
Edit to add... They just issued a PDS Tornado Watch. PDS means "particularly dangerous situation". That's a first. =|
Brad
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We've got our lawn chairs and ice chests chained down on the back porch. should be a fun afternoon and evening.
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Auntie Em! Auntie Em!
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It's gonna get ugly this afternoon down here in Ternader Alley.
Edit to add... They just issued a PDS Tornado Watch. PDS means "particularly dangerous situation". That's a first. =|
Brad
That sure beats the warnings we got when I was a kid growing up in Lawton. All we got was a quick siren and a funnel cloud. Sometimes we didn't even get the siren. The siren was good because that gave us time to hop on our bicycles and go to the high point locally to scan for the tornado and see if it was coming for us. :)
bob
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They issued a skirt alert for tomorrow. Wimmin and cross dressers are advised to wear under garments.
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Looks like OK KS and MO are under the same system.
https://www.goes.noaa.gov/WCIR4.html
^ Satellite view current for when you click on it.
That satellite is about to be decommissioned. Over the years, I got used to being able to interpret it. I hope whatever they replace it with is pretty equivalent.
Good luck to all of you and all of yours !
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Looks like OK KS and MO are under the same system.
https://www.goes.noaa.gov/WCIR4.html
^ Satellite view current for when you click on it.
That satellite is about to be decommissioned. Over the years, I got used to being able to interpret it. I hope whatever they replace it with is pretty equivalent.
Good luck to all of you and all of yours !
Texas, (especially) Oklahoma and Kansas is NOT the place to be today.
bob
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Yeah, I've been keeping an eye out in Colorado, too:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ftg&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Again, current when clicked. You can move the view with the arrows in the upper left area, called "Adjacent Radars." I did that to get to OH, where Son1 recently moved. To.
That big green thing is very unusual and usually means NE and KS will get some weather. Most of the blue stuff west of Denver is there all the time.
I got a big crapload of weather the weather foodstuffs yesterday and today. June 2009 we got some <ahem> severe weather (they didn't call it a tornado, didn't fit some parameter or other) which damaged my car with me in it, and busted the hell out of the building.
Roof torn up, all north windows shattered, paint hail-blasted off. If I can ever get the correct lighting, one of these days I'll take a pic of the hail dents in my balcony pickets.
I did not enjoy that.
Terry
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I do not like tornadoes. While in LE my partner and I were trying to warn folks in the path of an F-4. We got ahead of it and didn't know it due to how dark and rainy it was. Blew us off the road and killed the guy in the car in front of us as well as some other folks nearby.
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That weather DOES look kind of ominous . . .
(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2015/05/cthulhu-1.jpg?resize=865,452)
Seriously, guys, all kidding aside, if you're in the path of the storms - be careful and keep your head down.
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^^^^^^
Good God, my ex is at it again.
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That weather DOES look kind of ominous . . .
(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2015/05/cthulhu-1.jpg?resize=865,452)
Seriously, guys, all kidding aside, if you're in the path of the storms - be careful and keep your head down.
Is that real?? :O ?? ???
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Is that real?? :O ?? ???
You dare question the existence of.the ancient one?!?!!
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So far the main storm track is staying to the West of my location. We've gotten some small thunderstorms and quite a bit of rain but nothing nasty here yet.
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Is that real?? :O ?? ???
Properties gives a link to Snopes:
<https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2015/05/cthulhu-1.jpg?resize=865,452>
but I couldn't dig it out. Looks like an air show by flying saucers.
I've watched those storm chaser shows for quite a while and the occasionally catch a system with several smaller side tornados, but they looked pretty "conventional," but with thinner funnels.
Snopes has a section on fauxtography, but frankly, my Sherklock Holmes instincts petered out, and I decided to just drop these clews here.
On the other hand, weird things can happen. I once found a small fish in my rain gauge after some violent weather.
Terry
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Is that real?? :O ?? ???
Properties gives a link to Snopes:
<https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2015/05/cthulhu-1.jpg?resize=865,452>
but I couldn't dig out a blurb. Looks like an air show by flying saucers.
I've watched those storm chaser shows for quite a while and they occasionally catch a system with several smaller side tornados. The side ones looked pretty "conventional," but with thinner funnels.
Snopes has a section on "fauxtography", but frankly, my Sherlock Holmes instincts petered out, and I decided to just drop these clues here.
On the other hand, weird weather things can happen. I once found a small fish in my rain gauge after some violent weather.
Terry
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(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fherohog.com%2Fimages%2Fanime%2FHello_Cthulhu.jpg&hash=632e9f8f0e6f3157e0ca2df85e4bfe9a64894352)
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Well, we're now under the main track of the storm. Sirens going off in Tulsa and the city of Owasso which is just North of Tulsa. The whole mess is tracking NE right towards my place. Still more North than east out of the track. hoping it'll keep pushing east. Still nothing here but strong rain and wind.
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Sirens going off in the City of Claremore, about 18 miles SW of me still tracking my direction.
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Looks like the worst of it is passed for us. Watching a super cell and tornado on the ground track within a mile or so of my uncle's place.
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Record rainfall has led to record flooding in the area. Being that I'm on the high ground in the area I don't have to worry about my house flooding but the mess on the property is gonna be a pain.
My Brother in law has flooding in his garage and the sanitary sewer has flooded and overflowed in his neighborhood.
Rt. 66 in The town of Claremore is a knee deep raging river and the city has made 35 water rescues so far.
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Holy crap have we gotten the rain. I've got water standing in places on the property that I've never seen in the 25 years I've been here.
Woke up to a tornado warning but it was 8-10 miles to the southeast of us.
Historic flooding in the area. Roads covered in places that I've never seen since we moved back here in 1975. 10"+ of rain in the last 24 hours and still coming down. Makes me happy that I picked a house on high ground.
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That weather DOES look kind of ominous . . .
(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2015/05/cthulhu-1.jpg?resize=865,452)
Seriously, guys, all kidding aside, if you're in the path of the storms - be careful and keep your head down.
Need to find some Mint-Berry Crunch.
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Holy crap have we gotten the rain. I've got water standing in places on the property that I've never seen in the 25 years I've been here.
Woke up to a tornado warning but it was 8-10 miles to the southeast of us.
Historic flooding in the area. Roads covered in places that I've never seen since we moved back here in 1975. 10"+ of rain in the last 24 hours and still coming down. Makes me happy that I picked a house on high ground.
Always a good plan.
We had some minor flooding down here after rain a couple weeks ago. The Brazos river was up at the top of its banks. People keep buying houses in low areas.
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My brother in law that lives in the next town over had flooding in his garage and the sewers overflowed in his neighborhood.
He's got some minor flood damage but doesn't have any kind of flood insurance.
He's also an insurance agent.
My son can't get out of his subdivision because the small creek that runs through it has covered the road. It may be more than a day before it goes down enough to be passable.
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Here in Lubbock proper we dodged all but some medium-sized hail and a good bit of wind. Just a few miles east they were getting round after round of cell redevelopment and every single one of the damned things dropped a funnel. Nothing major, thank goodness. Up around Childress, not far from where I grew up, they were getting 3" hail. Lots of it. The fam got a bunch of much-needed rain and some wind, but little else.
Brad
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"Yesterday the SPC was predicting CAPEs"
Dafuq be dat acronym *expletive deleted*it?
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"Yesterday the SPC was predicting CAPEs"
Dafuq be dat acronym *expletive deleted*it?
Cape buffaloes. Falling from the sky. It's a risky prediction, but sometimes a weatherman just has to go out on a limb . . . . .
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It finally stopped raining, for now.
Got out and walked around the property, no damage.
My pond is full, and then some. First time since it was put in 11 yeas ago that it has even reached the overflow pipe let alone topped it. They built a "beaver cage" around the pipe to keep critters out of the pipe. It's about 3' tall, can't even see it now.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/31337/40934509603_9605de228b_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/25nf4yX)20190521_103244 (https://flic.kr/p/25nf4yX) by lmmiers (https://www.flickr.com/photos/19769480@N08/), on Flickr
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This is looking back towards the house from across the pond. The bank is usually the other side of the willow trees. The white boxes are my bee hives.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/47901024171_9560b44590_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2fYRgD6)20190521_104305 (https://flic.kr/p/2fYRgD6) by lmmiers (https://www.flickr.com/photos/19769480@N08/), on Flickr
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"Yesterday the SPC was predicting CAPEs"
Dafuq be dat acronym *expletive deleted*it?
SPC = Storm Prediction Center - spc.noaa.gov
Convective Available Potential Energy = essentially a measure of atmospheric instability. The higher the CAPE number, the more likely there will be thunderboomers.
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"essentially a measure of atmospheric instability."
Huh. I wonder if that's anything like my ex-wife instability index...
Because boy howdy, that's fired up to be one hell of a blow no matter what! :rofl:
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"essentially a measure of atmospheric instability."
Huh. I wonder if that's anything like my ex-wife instability index...
Because boy howdy, that's fired up to be one hell of a blow no matter what! :rofl:
That would be the Crazy Available Potential Energy
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We got to huddle in the basement for a while this evening. We use tornado warnings as a chance to see how well we remember our favorite hymns. Not that well, if you're wondering.
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Here we go again. Tulsa area getting hammered. Tornado tracking NW of Oologah where my boats are.
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More twisters spooling up all over the damn place. Looks nastier than Monday night.
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Interesting:
http://www.oologah.com/oologah/oologahl.html
The name Oologah, pronounced oo'-la-gawh, is a Cherokee word meaning "dark cloud." I can't help but think there was a tornado brewing the day Oologah was named.
Right now, just a patch of "red" in that area, not as extensive as the other day.
https://www.goes.noaa.gov/WCIR4.html
As I said before, good luck, all affected.
Terry
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That little patch of red while not as large as Monday's system has generated more tornado warnings in the last 3-4 hours than the previous one did all night.
Flooding has been the biggest problem with this round of storms. The Arkansas river in Tulsa is expected to breach the 100 year flood plain.
Several main highways still closed and water still rising expected to close more.
Keystone lake North of Tulsa had to release water and it has caused flooding and evacuations downstream as far as Tulsa.
Gonna be an "interesting" Spring.
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Will pray. Sorry to hear of your troubles.
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Sirens going off in town. Circulation tracking a mile or so SE.
Still have power.
Big story is a couple of loaded barges loose on the Arkansas river. They lost track of the barges after dark. Weber's Falls lock and damn is at risk. The town Weber's Falls below the damn has been evacuated. I40 has been closed.
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Another localized problem, several local resevoirs are at 95%+ flood control pool full. They will have to release water to protect the dams. Areas downstream will get flooding.
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Hey, didn't mean to minimize the severity... red is red, just looking at the geographical extent compared to the other day as of when I clicked on it.
Keep us posted, please.
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Circulation tracked south, missed daughter's house by less than a mile. I've got friends that live under the area where they were seeing lofted debris indicated on RADAR.
I'm still good.
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Nobody I know personally is reporting damage.
We've had over 12" of rain since Saturday added to already saturated ground and full reservoirs. That is causing some problems. Oologah lake is at 108.25% of flood control pool. It drains into the Arkansas River by way of the Verdigris river and McClellan-Kerr navigation channel. The Arkansas River is already over flood stage. There is literally no place for the water to go that will not worsen the down stream flooding.
The Arkansas River in Tulsa is already above flood stage and causing problems.
https://www.newson6.com/ (https://www.newson6.com/)
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Glad you and your's are still okay.
We're on the southwest end of today's risk box. Twisties definitely possible but not expected to be as much of an issue as widespread 2+ inch hail and 70+ MPH sustained winds.
Ahhhhh.... Spring on the Plains. Gotta love it. On the upside, it does make for beautiful sunsets.
Brad
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They're saying Jefferson City got socked pretty good. A "wedge" tornado. I've not heard of any fatalities. So not another Joplin, thank God.
The worst part of the storm passed south of where I live.
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Seen a bunch of pictures from Jefferson City. LOTS of damage to many of the historic houses along the main drag.
I'm looking at a really nasty front that's rolling in from the west across Dulles International. Could be pretty fun.
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https://www.thedrive.com/news/28167/midwest-flooding-re-floats-historic-wwii-submarine-for-the-first-time-in-decades?fbclid=IwAR3sA6wwR6evukjMod4INfO-g-UdSRbTPJw-i1Q1dzkVVoP9NJTL4F7OZ_4
Waters continue to rise across the midwest this week as heavy rains and saturated soil bring multiple rivers to flood stage. Homes have been destroyed, entire communities are inundated—and in Oklahoma, the historic World War II submarine USS Batfish has re-floated once again nearly fifty years after it was dry docked on display in a park along the Arkansas River.
(https://the-drive.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fapi.thedrive.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F05%2Fboat-aerial.jpg%3Fquality%3D85?q=70&w=1440&ixlib=js-1.2.1&s=1da7a992246aa74a564d3fbb6bb61e66)
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^ Wow. Seems logical and likely, I suppose, but to actually see it happening is impressive.
Details:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28167/midwest-flooding-re-floats-historic-wwii-submarine-for-the-first-time-in-decades
Jeeze, folks, best of luck to all.
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Seen a bunch of pictures from Jefferson City. LOTS of damage to many of the historic houses along the main drag.
I'm looking at a really nasty front that's rolling in from the west across Dulles International. Could be pretty fun.
It was a bit ominous to be hearing about it at 2.30 this morning, while waiting for the same storm system to knock on my door.
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https://www.thedrive.com/news/28167/midwest-flooding-re-floats-historic-wwii-submarine-for-the-first-time-in-decades?fbclid=IwAR3sA6wwR6evukjMod4INfO-g-UdSRbTPJw-i1Q1dzkVVoP9NJTL4F7OZ_4
(https://the-drive.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fapi.thedrive.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F05%2Fboat-aerial.jpg%3Fquality%3D85?q=70&w=1440&ixlib=js-1.2.1&s=1da7a992246aa74a564d3fbb6bb61e66)
She floated before in 1986 when we had a round of flooding similar to this go around.
The Muskogee War Memorial is a pretty decent and well run operation.
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We had an interesting one pass through last evening. Nothing like what's being described here, but you could see the storm line approaching from the west. It was really neat watching it hit Dulles Airport.
It didn't seem to be too terrible out here, but the closer I got to home the more damage I saw. Had some problems getting through intersections where the traffic lights were out. Had to do some back tracking to get around major ones.
Lost power at the house briefly, but this morning there are still over 16k customers without power here in Virginia.