Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: WLJ on January 22, 2020, 02:35:23 PM
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Looks like the virus outbreak is getting or has gotten out of hand.
Wuhan: Virus-hit Chinese city to shut public transport
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51215348
#BREAKING: In order to fight #WuFlu, Wuhan’s bus, metro, ferry and other long-distance transport services will be temporarily suspended starting on January 23 at 10 am, says state media @CCTV. Airport and train stations leaving Wuhan will also close. #WuhanPneumonia pic.twitter.com/Yte7KjZAlf
— Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) January 22, 2020
Wuhan is the 7th largest city in China — as San Antonio is in the US. Also, it is probably too late for this to be effective, and tens of thousands — if not hundreds of thousands — of people have left this city for other parts of China. https://t.co/74BXqVCEBC
— Ronald Klain (@RonaldKlain) January 22, 2020
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/01/22/gulp-china-quarantines-city-of-wuhan-population-11-million-over-coronavirus-fears/
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Kinda wondering if they'll be able to contain this one. =|
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Kinda wondering if they'll be able to contain this one. =|
I'm going to go with "no":
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1st-confirmed-case-coronavirus-reported-washington-state-cdc/story?id=68430795
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^^^This patient is at Providence Hospital in Everett, about a mile from where I park my car at the transit station. [tinfoil]
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CDC webpage on the virus
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), Wuhan, China
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
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12
Monkeys Snakes
Coronavirus: Snakes sold at Wuhan market could be the source of deadly outbreak
https://7news.com.au/news/health/coronavirus-snakes-sold-at-wuhan-market-could-be-the-source-of-deadly-outbreak-c-661904
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Probably not all that much to worry about, IMO.
Extremely pathogenic coronaviruses were behind SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) and were easily transmitted from human to human. SARS, which showed up in the early 2000s, infected more than 8,000 people and resulted in nearly 800 deaths.
While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010./
Plain old flu seems to continually far outperform in annual deaths. I think 17 people have died so far from the coronavirus. That flu death count is just the US. A gazoogle showed about 300,000-600,000 annual deaths worldwide.
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China is trying to build a hospital in six days to treat coronavirus patients:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-wuhan-building-new-hospital-coronavirus-2020-1
(which makes me wonder about its safety ... not just exposure to the virus, but little things like structural collapse)
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https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-health-officials-investigating-suspected-case-of-coronavirus-567236761.html
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (KBTX) - The Brazos County Health District announced Thursday it's investigating a possible case of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in a Texas A&M University student.
The unidentified patient recently traveled from Wuhan, China, where the current coronavirus outbreak originated, back to Brazos County but authorities have declined to provide a specific timeline for his travels.
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China is trying to build a hospital in six days to treat coronavirus patients:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-wuhan-building-new-hospital-coronavirus-2020-1
(which makes me wonder about its safety ... not just exposure to the virus, but little things like structural collapse)
It's not like it can just fall over...…… oh wait, China.
(https://www.engineering.com/Portals/0/library/articles/building-fall/img1.jpg)
bob
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... and we have a second confirmed case in the U.S., with 63 more possible:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-confirms-second-us-case-of-coronavirus-chicago-resident-diagnosed.html
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Has anyone blamed Trump yet?
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Of course. If he hadn't started the trade war with China, the coronavirus would not exist.
;)
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Well we are way over due on a 10-20% world population killer disease.
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https://summit.news/2020/01/23/chinese-lab-that-studies-worlds-most-dangerous-pathogens-is-based-in-wuhan/
Chinese Lab That Studies “World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens” is Based in Wuhan
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Chinese Lab That Studies “World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens” is Based in Wuhan
[tinfoil]
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Hum...
I'm thinking it's time for me to dig out my copy of "The Stand."
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Welcome to China
Videos Show Chinese People Eating Bats As Experts Link Animal to Coronavirus Outbreak
https://summit.news/2020/01/23/videos-show-chinese-people-eating-bats-as-experts-link-animal-to-coronavirus-outbreak/
(https://cdn.summit.news/2020/01/230119bat.jpg)
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Welcome to China
Videos Show Chinese People Eating Bats As Experts Link Animal to Coronavirus Outbreak
https://summit.news/2020/01/23/videos-show-chinese-people-eating-bats-as-experts-link-animal-to-coronavirus-outbreak/
(https://cdn.summit.news/2020/01/230119bat.jpg)
Well, they do look like flying dogs so it must be OK
bob
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Don't let a probable release of a man made virus distract you from the fact that China is cracking down on Hong Kong.
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Welcome to China
Videos Show Chinese People Eating Bats As Experts Link Animal to Coronavirus Outbreak
https://summit.news/2020/01/23/videos-show-chinese-people-eating-bats-as-experts-link-animal-to-coronavirus-outbreak/
(https://cdn.summit.news/2020/01/230119bat.jpg)
Anything that will fit in the wok.
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Don't let a probable release of a man made virus distract you from the fact that China is cracking down on Hong Kong.
Isn't that how the story always goes?
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/U2ii5GIzMGU3m/giphy.gif)
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So ,can we just go ahead and call this the Kung-Flu?
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Well, they do look like flying dogs so it must be OK
bob
They look more like flying rats to me. =|
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So ,can we just go ahead and call this the Kung-Flu?
Someone beat you to it. Can't remember where I saw it.
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Someone beat you to it. Can't remember where I saw it.
Facebook Meme
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I saw it on a Facebook meme, thought it was funny.
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Someone beat you to it. Can't remember where I saw it.
Facebook meme.
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3
3rd US case of new virus confirmed as consulate prepares to evacuate Wuhan, China
https://www.wave3.com/2020/01/26/rd-us-case-new-virus-confirmed-consulate-prepares-evacuate-wuhan-china/
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https://summit.news/2020/01/23/chinese-lab-that-studies-worlds-most-dangerous-pathogens-is-based-in-wuhan/
Chinese Lab That Studies “World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens” is Based in Wuhan
Well *expletive deleted*it.
https://imgur.com/a/NpRuTOc
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Well *expletive deleted*it.
https://imgur.com/a/NpRuTOc
We've got it handled.
(https://am24.akamaized.net/tms/cnt/uploads/2019/01/Resident-Evil-1200x732.jpg)
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We're looking at an epic drop in the market's at today's open in 1 hour.
Right now Dow futures are down by 460 points.
Oil is also getting absolutely hammered.
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We're looking at an epic drop in the market's at today's open in 1 hour.
Right now Dow futures are down by 460 points.
Oil is also getting absolutely hammered.
Big hit so far. Again, not to sound unsympathetic, but I'll get more excited about the virus itself when it approaches 10% of the annual worldwide flu deaths. In the meantime, stock-wise, it's another "emotion correction."
I read an article this morning that statistically, given last year's stock performance, February would be a big downturn/crash month. I guess it will be interesting to see if the virus panic mitigates that somewhat by starting the statistically predicted drop a little early, or if it adds to it and creates an avalanche.
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I wonder if this virus deliberately released as an experiment in preparation for a highly lethal biological attack
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(https://geekculture.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/rlsw-biotech-re-1200x628.jpg)
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I wonder if this virus deliberately released as an experiment in preparation for a highly lethal biological attack
Why do that? The world is so connected these days that a bio attack on one group/location will easily spread throughout the world.
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Why do that? The world is so connected these days that a bio attack on one group/location will easily spread throughout the world.
Because the first virus you launch isn’t that lethal. Just enough to justify closing your borders.
The second virus you release, however ...
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Because the first virus you launch isn’t that lethal. Just enough to justify closing your borders.
The second virus you release, however ...
You think Hong Kong will see something different soon?
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You think Hong Kong will see something different soon?
No, but it would make for a good start to a zombie book.
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And here I am with the beginnings of a sore throat.....
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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally
hmmm.
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This guy doesn't exactly present a rosey outlook.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905
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No, but it would make for a good start to a zombie book.
Or the scenario in Rainbow 6, except the good guys don't stop the problem in time...
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Because the first virus you launch isn’t that lethal. Just enough to justify closing your borders.
The second virus you release, however ...
Whoa... settle down there, Captain Paranoid.
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Whoa... settle down there, Captain Paranoid.
ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED!
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"ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED!"
"Deus Opum Feng Shui Scrotum
Tiger Woods US Open"
Hey, guys? Stop chanting for a second. I need to set something up...
Yeah, Hillary? Cordex has incriminating information on you.
You will? He will? Thanks!
OK, guys, you're good!
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This guy doesn't exactly present a rosey outlook.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905
Note he says nothing about the mortality rate. Which sources state is about 2.8%, and that's without establishing any co-morbidity factors or other demographic information to tell us if this is even any worse than a non pandemic flu strain. Also keep in mind that for perspective, measles has an R0 of anywhere from 12 to 18. SARS was 4.0. OTOH, the 1918 flu pandemic killed millions with an R0 of 1.4 or so, with a mortality rate somewhere around 15%. However, case mortality for some of these diseases was dramatic. While SARS had an 11% overall mortality rate, the rate for those over 65 years old was more than 50%.
So something with a R0 of 3.8 and (as far as we know) 2.8% morbidity with unknown demographic and co-morbidity (if any) isn't super impressive yet. We also don't know what the morbidity rate is for those hospitalized in time. It might be a fraction of a percent with just the basic supportive therapy such as IV fluids, Tylenol, and Oxygen.
I'm willing to bet a hundred bucks it'll be another low-moderate to nothing-burger like SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and Bird Flu. We're just not seeing the ZOMG levels of panic or secondary evidence of said panic. I suppose China could be engaging in a mass effort to build tent hospitals in view of the media, and digging mass graves outside of it, but I haven't seen any evidence or even rumors of them prepping for mass death just yet.
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You think Hong Kong will see something different soon?
Suddenly Hong Kong isn’t in the news
I suspect there will be a full blown crackdown
That’s my paranoia moment
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Yeah, Hillary? Cordex has incriminating information on you.
You will? He will? Thanks!
On a completely unrelated note ...
I made mistakes from ignorance, inexperience and overwork. I did not knowingly violate any law or standard of conduct. I was not meant for the job or the spotlight of public life in Washington.
I plan to seek counseling for depression.
Regretfully yours,
cordex
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I regret to inform everyone that Cordex has committed suicide by stabbing himself in the back 72 times...
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Note he says nothing about the mortality rate. Which sources state is about 2.8%, and that's without establishing any co-morbidity factors or other demographic information to tell us if this is even any worse than a non pandemic flu strain. Also keep in mind that for perspective, measles has an R0 of anywhere from 12 to 18. SARS was 4.0. OTOH, the 1918 flu pandemic killed millions with an R0 of 1.4 or so, with a mortality rate somewhere around 15%. However, case mortality for some of these diseases was dramatic. While SARS had an 11% overall mortality rate, the rate for those over 65 years old was more than 50%.
So something with a R0 of 3.8 and (as far as we know) 2.8% morbidity with unknown demographic and co-morbidity (if any) isn't super impressive yet. We also don't know what the morbidity rate is for those hospitalized in time. It might be a fraction of a percent with just the basic supportive therapy such as IV fluids, Tylenol, and Oxygen.
I'm willing to bet a hundred bucks it'll be another low-moderate to nothing-burger like SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and Bird Flu. We're just not seeing the ZOMG levels of panic or secondary evidence of said panic. I suppose China could be engaging in a mass effort to build tent hospitals in view of the media, and digging mass graves outside of it, but I haven't seen any evidence or even rumors of them prepping for mass death just yet.
As I was reading it, SARS initially had a R0 of 4, but quickly dropped to below 1 when more information about it came out along with containment efforts. The Mortality rate and the actual number infected can only be guessed from the numbers the Chinese are giving out- hint: the Chinese tend to not tell the truth. I think they have a legitimate out of control problem on their hands in China, but I don't think its a huge danger to spread beyond Asia yet.
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(https://oi1179.photobucket.com/albums/x383/WLJohnson1/Humor/20200129_005327_zpsjftll7st.jpg)
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:facepalm:
BoingBoing discovered that in the past few days, there has also been a spike in searches for "corona beer virus," because apparently people are under the impression that coronavirus, also known as nCoV, has something to do with Corona brand beer, also known as the reason college-aged you screamed "ONLY GOD CAN JUDGE ME" after throwing during an otherwise chill game of beach volleyball.
A Disturbing Number of People Think Coronavirus Is Related to Corona Beer
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdvvd/a-disturbing-number-of-people-think-coronavirus-is-related-to-corona-beer
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CNN knows what's the most important factor in fighting the Coronavirus, diversity
Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity | Analysis https://t.co/bs7L1rUZzc pic.twitter.com/MzzoslqZpT
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) January 30, 2020
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/01/30/cnn-concerned-with-lack-of-diversity-on-trumps-coronavirus-task-force-especially-as-the-country-approaches-2020-election/
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CNN knows what's the most important factor in fighting the Coronavirus, diversity
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/01/30/cnn-concerned-with-lack-of-diversity-on-trumps-coronavirus-task-force-especially-as-the-country-approaches-2020-election/
You guys really need to read the Kurt Schlichter "fictional" People's Republic / Kelly Turnbull books. When I read the first one, I was almost gonna give it a mediocre review because I thought it went way over the top with the SJW portrayals and characters. But no, if anything, he's behind the times.
Because when I'm dying of coronavirus, I'll at least be able to say, "Oh well, they may have been at the bottom of their class in epidemiology school, but at least they checked all the right boxes on race and gender. I can go to my grave knowing I took one for the diversity team."
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Delta and AA suspending flights to China
United announced they will reduce and not stop, so far, flights.
Delta, American Airlines suspend flights between US, China
https://www.wdrb.com/news/national/delta-american-airlines-suspend-flights-between-us-china/article_7e8af22f-c6c8-54e1-bc0c-3b7297efa212.html
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UC Berkeley publishes a guide on handling anxiety over coronavirus, gets accused of racism:
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Stop-normalizing-racism-Amid-backlash-UC-15019224.php
"Hoisted on their own petard" comes to mind.
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Browsing the subreddits on hongkong, and noticed a drop off in activity, plus several posts about empty streets.
[tinfoil]
If I believed any country would pull this *expletive deleted*it, it would be China.
Release some bullshit coronavirus they've already found and tested on inmates, knowing it would cause panic. HongKong no longer in the news.
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Browsing the subreddits on hongkong, and noticed a drop off in activity, plus several posts about empty streets.
[tinfoil]
If I believed any country would pull this *expletive deleted*it, it would be China.
Release some bullshit coronavirus they've already found and tested on inmates, knowing it would cause panic. HongKong no longer in the news.
HK never had a chance. China is populous, old, and patient. The leaders of China can and will just wait until the Hong Kong "revolution" dies off from lack of enthusiasm. They don't need for it to literally die off.
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Big Brother is watching
WATCH: China using talking drones to scold citizens who don't wear masks during virus outbreak
https://www.wlky.com/article/watch-china-using-talking-drones-to-scold-citizens-who-dont-wear-masks-during-virus-outbreak/30739652
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Big Brother is watching
https://youtu.be/uHAPsaLwEfc?t=273
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Local rag has a story (on the 4th page) about how China has been attempting to manage news about the virus outbreak. Near the beginning of the story it mentions that a doctor who warned medical students about it was hauled in for questioning in the middle of the night, and later forced to sign a statement that his warning was "illegal behavior."
http://epaper.statesman.com/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&pubid=0bd3b62f-2574-4676-88da-58d1361460ab (http://epaper.statesman.com/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&pubid=0bd3b62f-2574-4676-88da-58d1361460ab)
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Thai doctors may have found an effective treatment:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html
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Thai doctors may have found an effective treatment:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html
Kind of disappointed it doesn't somehow involve drinking a case of Corona
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Kung Flu was good, but Sweet and Sour Sicken is currently amusing me. Why can't I think up these memes?
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Wuhan/Novel Coronavirus death toll is higher than the SARS Coronavirus, positive news is the death rate is quite a bit lower, but it still in the early stages of the outbreak.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
The death toll from the new coronavirus has exceeded that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2002 and 2003 in mainland China. But the number of people who have recovered nationwide has also risen in recent days, suggesting that the new virus’s fatality rate is relatively low.
China’s Health Commission reported on Sunday that there were 475 recoveries and 361 deaths nationwide. During the SARS outbreak, 349 people died in mainland China.
Health experts say they are encouraged by the steady rise in the number of recoveries. They take it as evidence that the treatments meted out have been effective and that the virus does not appear to be as deadly as SARS.
SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6 percent, and about 2 percent of those reported to have been infected with the new coronavirus have died
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"Wuhan/Novel Coronavirus death toll is higher than the SARS Coronavirus..."
Still not nearly the deadliest plague to ever hit China...
Communism has killed more than 60 million Chinese.
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"Wuhan/Novel Coronavirus death toll is higher than the SARS Coronavirus..."
Still not nearly the deadliest plague to ever hit China...
Communism has killed more than 60 million Chinese.
Is there a vaccine for Communism?
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Is there a vaccine for Communism?
Ask Che.
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Wuhan/Novel Coronavirus death toll is higher than the SARS Coronavirus, positive news is the death rate is quite a bit lower, but it still in the early stages of the outbreak.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
"The death toll from the new coronavirus has exceeded that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2002 and 2003 in mainland China. But the number of people who have recovered nationwide has also risen in recent days, suggesting that the new virus’s fatality rate is relatively low.
China’s Health Commission reported on Sunday that there were 475 recoveries and 361 deaths nationwide. During the SARS outbreak, 349 people died in mainland China.
Health experts say they are encouraged by the steady rise in the number of recoveries. They take it as evidence that the treatments meted out have been effective and that the virus does not appear to be as deadly as SARS.
SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6 percent, and about 2 percent of those reported to have been infected with the new coronavirus have died"
There's probably a week lag between symptoms and when someone recovers or dies...
A week ago, there are around 1000 confirmed cases...
Either the death rate is rediculously high, or the number of actual cases is being grossly underreported.
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There's probably a week lag between symptoms and when someone recovers or dies...
A week ago, there are around 1000 confirmed cases...
Either the death rate is rediculously high, or the number of actual cases is being grossly underreported.
3.6 roentgen, not great, not terrible
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Ask Che.
Cute, but that's not exactly preventive care.
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3.6 roentgen, not great, not terrible
"Roentgen"?
Or basic reproduction number?
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3.6 roentgen, not great, not terrible
China pop a nuke in HK?
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It's a line from Chernobyl stated by the guy in charge of the reactor crew at the time of the explosion and repeated by those in charge to claim nothing serious happened. Later it's found out the actual reading was 15,000
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It's a line from Chernobyl stated by the guy in charge of the reactor crew at the time of the explosion and repeated by those in charge to claim nothing serious happened. Later it's found out the actual reading was 15,000
I have the t-shirt. :lol:
https://www.ebay.com/i/163747358228?chn=ps&var=463261082264&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=463261082264_163747358228&targetid=857040191190&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9053103&campaignid=6469981107&mkgroupid=91562449160&rlsatarget=aud-412677883135:pla-857040191190&abcId=1141176&merchantid=137698040&gclid=Cj0KCQiApt_xBRDxARIsAAMUMu8aPGMWrXicvdIfIxt7pPgxYyAuuxt3qRK2N8DIQFNstcgT1qCjA20aArjCEALw_wcB
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https://www.pcgamesn.com/mirror/giveaway-china
Free Pr0n games to citizens to encourage them to stay inside!
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https://www.pcgamesn.com/mirror/giveaway-china
Free Pr0n games to citizens to encourage them to stay inside!
Did everyone go play with their VPN settings after this was posted?
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Well, you HATERS ought to know the REAL danger from the Corona virus is the threat you HATERS pose to our DIVERSITY!!!! YOU RACISTY BIGOTS!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-a-sickness-more-virulent-than-coronavirus-and-it-s-the-pm-s-job-to-stop-it-20200203-p53x79.html
Look at the data. So far, there's only a 2.2% fatality rate from the virus. Suck is up, wussies, if you MYSTERIOUSLY get the disease, it's almost certain you'll still live.
After all, the 1918 pandemic of Spanish Flu killed 2.5% of infectees (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/). This is a whole .3% LESS fatal!
You're only worried about it because you hate Chinese people.
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Well, you HATERS ought to know the REAL danger from the Corona virus is the threat you HATERS pose to our DIVERSITY!!!! YOU RACISTY BIGOTS!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-a-sickness-more-virulent-than-coronavirus-and-it-s-the-pm-s-job-to-stop-it-20200203-p53x79.html
Look at the data. So far, there's only a 2.2% fatality rate from the virus. Suck is up, wussies, if you MYSTERIOUSLY get the disease, it's almost certain you'll still live.
After all, the 1918 pandemic of Spanish Flu killed 2.5% of infectees (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/). This is a whole .3% LESS fatal!
You're only worried about it because you hate Chinese people.
But will the virus kill more or less percent Alphabet POC? Either answer will be racist and homophobic.
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https://wuflu.live/
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Even using the official Chinese numbers is scary- they say the death number is roughly 600 to date. 10 days ago they say there were 3000 confirmed cases. They say the incubation time is from a few days to two weeks. It would be most enlightening to know when the deceased were brought in for treatment- if they got infected 10 days ago that would imply a 20% death rate.
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Even using the official Chinese numbers is scary- they say the death number is roughly 600 to date. 10 days ago they say there were 3000 confirmed cases. They say the incubation time is from a few days to two weeks. It would be most enlightening to know when the deceased were brought in for treatment- if they got infected 10 days ago that would imply a 20% death rate.
That might be optimistic. We actually don't know the number of deaths or infections, only what the ministry of truth tells us. They are almost playing a numbers game where Patient A had corona virus and died of heart disease, patient B died of a stroke, patient C died of cancer,, etc... A country doesn't isolate 50 million people because of a 100 deaths.
The cat is out of the bag now that a healthy Doctor in his 30s who was persecuted for talking about the virus just recently died.
I never worried about SARS, MERS, or bird flu, but this one has had me worried since day 1.
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I think the number of confirmed cases is now pushing 50,000....
Nope, over 31,000 as of a couple of hours ago, apparently.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-usa-confirmed-cases-news-cruise-ship-death-toll-evacuations-latest-2020-02-06/
CDC is apparently saying that we're not even close to peak yet.
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The public health boobs in WI may have severely flubbed this one.
Had a patient come to a hospital, tested positive for Corona virus, and sent them to be 'isolated at home.' :facepalm:
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Possible culprit:
(https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/02/1862/1048/iStock-183527731.jpg?ve=1&tl=1)
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A Pangolin?
Doesn't that belong in the 'Combination air fryer/toaster oven thread?'
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A Pangolin?
Doesn't that belong in the 'Combination air fryer/toaster oven thread?'
Ha ha.
Yup - (possibly) Pangolin.
https://www.foxnews.com/science/chinese-scientists-say-pangolin-is-possible-coronavirus-host
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The pangolin's scales are considered to be medicinal in traditional Chinese witch doctoring... Convenient if the cause is also the cure...
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The public health boobs in WI may have severely flubbed this one.
Had a patient come to a hospital, tested positive for Corona virus, and sent them to be 'isolated at home.' :facepalm:
Actually, this is the preferred method of treatment: if there are no other people at the patient's home, the patient is not acutely ill, the patient can take care of themselves, and the patient will comply with the isolation order, home is the best place for them and they pose no infection risk to others. The County Health Department will bring them supplies and groceries and monitor the patient. Hospitals are dangerous and expensive places, and if you can keep the patient out, all the better.
I get all the daily emails on this from CDC and our state and county health departments, and what they did in Wisconsin with this case is not unusual at all.
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Actually, this is the preferred method of treatment: if there are no other people at the patient's home, the patient is not acutely ill, the patient can take care of themselves, and the patient will comply with the isolation order, home is the best place for them and they pose no infection risk to others. The County Health Department will bring them supplies and groceries and monitor the patient. Hospitals are dangerous and expensive places, and if you can keep the patient out, all the better.
I get all the daily emails on this from CDC and our state and county health departments, and what they did in Wisconsin with this case is not unusual at all.
This is very sensible to me. If I'm infected and held in a hospital by force, I'm going to be much less cooperative - especially if I'm only suspected of being infected. In the latter case, I'm potentially subject to actually getting infected by being in a crowded hospital, even if precautions are taken. In the former, I think I'm more of a danger to the public, even if precautions are taken.
Keep me in the comfort of my home, and hey, check up on me several times a day if you want. I'd probably be open to an ankle monitor if you think I'm a "flight risk".
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One of my former coworkers (and his family) were quarantined at home because he and his classmates on a senior trip to Mexico were potentially infected with the swine flu. DHEC brought them food and supplies.
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Actually, this is the preferred method of treatment: if there are no other people at the patient's home, the patient is not acutely ill, the patient can take care of themselves, and the patient will comply with the isolation order, home is the best place for them and they pose no infection risk to others. The County Health Department will bring them supplies and groceries and monitor the patient. Hospitals are dangerous and expensive places, and if you can keep the patient out, all the better.
I get all the daily emails on this from CDC and our state and county health departments, and what they did in Wisconsin with this case is not unusual at all.
As long as there is accountability towards the patient staying indoors, and not going out to a store because they need human interaction.
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My biggest concern in a case like that would be what to do with Seren? I guess I'd have to get a neighbor to take her to her daycare and board her there if I couldn't get outside to walk her.
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As long as there is accountability towards the patient staying indoors, and not going out to a store because they need human interaction.
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...
If I get the coronavirus, I don't have to interact with people, AT ALL, and people just bring food to my house!???
/starts researching how to ship a pangolin to the states.
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Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...
If I get the coronavirus, I don't have to interact with people, AT ALL, and people just bring food to my house!???
/starts researching how to ship a pangolin to the states.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Literally had me covering my mouth to stop the coffee. :laugh:
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Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...
If I get the coronavirus, I don't have to interact with people, AT ALL, and people just bring food to my house!???
/starts researching how to ship a pangolin to the states.
Don't forget the free Pr0n games while you are on vacation.
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Don't forget the free Pr0n games while you are on vacation.
Would his "inflatable friend" also be subject to the quarantine?
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Would his "inflatable friend" also be subject to the quarantine?
Disinfected with fire.
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Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...
If I get the coronavirus, I don't have to interact with people, AT ALL, and people just bring food to my house!???
/starts researching how to ship a pangolin to the states.
Post of the day.
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As a whole, many people are unaware of the sweeping powers that Federal, State and local health authorities have in the context of controlling disease. I was watching a segment on NBC news the other night about the latest 747 load of Americans from China landing at a military base in California for a 14 day quarantine. The point was made that the people are not free to leave the confinement area specifically, nor the base in general, and armed personnel are on the perimeter to ensure this.
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I talked with a colleague who is from the epicenter in Wuhan. He went there for new years and has been back for 5 weeks, so he dodged it apparently but he got out just before the lockdown. He said the virus itself is not much worse than flu but the death toll is coming from the lockdown itself because the people inside the lockdown aren't getting care. Anyone who got out with the virus is probably fine.
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He's dead Jim
Chinese doctor #LiWenliang, one of the eight "whistleblowers" who tried to warn other medics of the coronavirus outbreak but were reprimanded by local police, died from #coronavirus at 2:58 am Friday, the hospital where he received treatment announced. https://t.co/eCrNha7Nn1 pic.twitter.com/WYwDxZFBej
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) February 6, 2020
Chinese doctor who sounded alarm on coronavirus dies, reports say
https://www.wave3.com/2020/02/06/chinese-doctor-who-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-was-silenced-has-died/
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People being dragged away to ‘quarantine camps.’
Start watching at approximately the 35:30minute mark.
You don’t see this sort of response with diseases that are only deadly as the flu unless they are using it as a reason to disappear people.
https://youtu.be/4YbIl1Q-DYw
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Wow the Chinese must have a bunch of crap on the Clintons.
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There is a very interesting graphic posted under this facefart post. Please take a moment and look. If it’s true, this is way worse than anyone here imagined.
https://www.facebook.com/132200683/posts/986891375933/?d=n
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Ok, screw it. I’m calling it an official tinkywinky event- I hope I’m wrong.
Buckle up kids, we’re in for a bumpy ride.
https://twitter.com/mithricastle/status/1225925285759135744?s=21
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Ok, screw it. I’m calling it an official tinkywinky event- I hope I’m wrong.
Buckle up kids, we’re in for a bumpy ride.
https://twitter.com/mithricastle/status/1225925285759135744?s=21
https://i.redd.it/hogqn1wf2nf41.png
https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png
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(https://i.imgflip.com/1led1b.gif)
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People being dragged away to ‘quarantine camps.’
Start watching at approximately the 35:30minute mark.
You don’t see this sort of response with diseases that are only deadly as the flu unless they are using it as a reason to disappear people.
https://youtu.be/4YbIl1Q-DYw
Clipped at the correct time mark
https://youtu.be/4YbIl1Q-DYw?t=2127
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https://i.redd.it/hogqn1wf2nf41.png
https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png
At least one bioweapons expert says this is a bioweapon meant for the US, that got out. OOPS.
If true, China is *expletive deleted*ed, and so are we if we don’t prevent it from reaching our shores.
https://youtu.be/cUNHz7IUDdc
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There is a very interesting graphic posted under this facefart post. Please take a moment and look. If it’s true, this is way worse than anyone here imagined.
https://www.facebook.com/132200683/posts/986891375933/?d=n
Since I don't have a Fecesbook account, I can't see the graphic.
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Since I don't have a Fecesbook account, I can't see the graphic.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a good way to post photos to the forum.
Found another source: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
Going by those numbers... maybe a 1% survival rate?
China is going to lose a few ten million people if their best quarantine efforts succeed, much worse if it doesn’t.
Interesting times we live in.
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I have zero trust in any "official" numbers coming out of China. And, only a tiny fraction of trust in any "official" numbers from even a US based source.
And while this may get really nasty it is well to remember that the majority of China is essentially 3rd world in respects to healthcare and the shear numbers of even a nasty flu epidemic would severely strain China's government health services.
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https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw
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I have zero trust in any "official" numbers coming out of China. And, only a tiny fraction of trust in any "official" numbers from even a US based source.
And while this may get really nasty it is well to remember that the majority of China is essentially 3rd world in respects to healthcare and the shear numbers of even a nasty flu epidemic would severely strain China's government health services.
Even the WHO is quoting Chinese numbers as real, and has praised the Chinese .gov for their excellent response. Every official organization is lying.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-officials-note-serious-problems-in-coronavirus-response-the-world-health-organization-keeps-praising-them/2020/02/08/b663dd7c-4834-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro)
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Coronavirus in the wild in Europe:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51425702
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Track the map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Some thoughts on unpredictability with this virus
Most of the cases, mainland china, are in very, very densely populated cities. And in some cases, I imagine that they've made it worse by quarantining people together with sick patients. You take 200 people who are sick, but only a few actually have Corona. Now everyone has it, and 30% of them end up dead because they were already sick with weakened immune systems.
Does this virus end up rampaging through some developing and third world countries cities and causing a lot of deaths in the next few months?
How does that compare to less densely populated cities and countries, and western countries with better health care systems and healthier populations?
Has anyone died outside of those areas from it yet?
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It makes feel a bit better that the US is taking it very seriously
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1226362016086003712?s=21
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It makes feel a bit better that the US is taking it very seriously
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1226362016086003712?s=21
They always dress like that if they know Kim kardashian or Madonna are on the flight
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China good
Obama good
Orange Man bad
When Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern on Thursday, he praised China for taking “unprecedented” steps to control the deadly virus. “I have never seen for myself this kind of mobilization,” he noted. “China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response.”
For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is
Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
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While I'm still not ready to worry about this from the "dying of the RKL plague" perspective, something to consider: These lockdowns on Chinese movement may end up creating another effect we talk about around here - disruption of goods and services.
When you start looking at quarantining shipping into the US, you begin hitting "shortage of food and toilet paper" territory and possible cascade reactions with the accompanying panic of the unprepared. Depending on how this continues, if I didn't already have some long term food and necessities stockpiled, I'd be looking at doing that now.
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"These lockdowns on Chinese movement may end up creating another effect we talk about around here - disruption of goods and services."
Yeah, that's been a topic of discussion on various financial news and social media organizations for the better part of 2 weeks now.
It's dragged down the price of oil from $60 or so a a barrel to $50 a barrel.
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"These lockdowns on Chinese movement may end up creating another effect we talk about around here - disruption of goods and services."
Yeah, that's been a topic of discussion on various financial news and social media organizations for the better part of 2 weeks now.
It's dragged down the price of oil from $60 or so a a barrel to $50 a barrel.
I've been seeing that on the Fox Business, but am actually ready to move into the tinfoil domain of the possibility of "Just in Time" inventory disruption of daily necessities. I'm not giving it a high percentage possibility at this point, but am concerned enough of the possibility (maybe 20% right now?) that, as I said, if I didn't already have reserves, I'd look at acquiring them.
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I've been seeing that on the Fox Business, but am actually ready to move into the tinfoil domain of the possibility of "Just in Time" inventory disruption of daily necessities. I'm not giving it a high percentage possibility at this point, but am concerned enough of the possibility (maybe 20% right now?) that, as I said, if I didn't already have reserves, I'd look at acquiring them.
This is going to affect my workplace as we obtain a lot of our raw materials from china. However, we usually have at least 3 qualified suppliers for just about every material we purchase to mitigate supply chain risk. I’m guessing any well run company operates the same.
The last time we had a supply chain disruption was around 2009-2010 after the onset of the housing crisis. We get all of our bulk solvents domestically, the paint industry (which uses some overlap in materials) was heavily hit by the housing crisis/recession, so a few of our solvents were difficult to get for about a year.
As far as household goods go, we are stocking up but keeping a close watch on the news. If a major city starts seeing dozens of new cases, that’ll be my sign to dig in. I’m not too worried about CONUS yet, so long as fed.gov doesn’t screw the pooch. China right now reminds me of one of those crime novels, where a perp kills or robs someone, then decides to kill a dozen more people in order to try to cover up the original crime. They knew they had a problem 2 months ago and tried to hide it, until it got away from them.
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30313-5/fulltext
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Good lord! The solution was so simple to this all the time and it took a TV doctor to figure it out!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/op-ed-gottlieb-says-screening-and-fist-bumps-over-hand-shakes-will-help-protect-against-coronavirus.html
:facepalm:
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10903354/coronavirus-gp-practice-brighton/
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Good lord! The solution was so simple to this all the time and it took a TV doctor to figure it out!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/op-ed-gottlieb-says-screening-and-fist-bumps-over-hand-shakes-will-help-protect-against-coronavirus.html
I mourn the demise of journalism.
Singapore, where community spread seems to be taking route, has about as many travelers arriving from China as the U.S. does — around 3 million a year.
"Route"? Did the author mean "root"? It makes absolutely no sense as written. But it's CNBC, so ...
And this:
There are also steps people can take to reduce their individual risk amidst the uncertainty. Your absolute risk of contracting coronavirus will remain low, even if pockets of infection start to emerge. That can change if the outbreaks widen. But good hygiene in the winter flu season is sound practice. So is getting a flu vaccine. This can reduce the chance that you could catch both infections, which can be especially dangerous, if coronavirus outbreaks do start to emerge.
I thought the flu vaccine was ineffective against coronavirus.
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This can reduce the chance that you could catch both infections, which can be especially dangerous, if coronavirus outbreaks do start to emerge.
It would double suck to have the regular flu and the kung flu at the same time
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https://www.infowars.com/beijing-falls-to-coronavirus-capital-of-china-locked-down-under-pandemic-quarantine/
BEIJING FALLS TO CORONAVIRUS… capital of China locked down under pandemic quarantine
Its Infowars so you can decided how good the source is. =)
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https://www.infowars.com/beijing-falls-to-coronavirus-capital-of-china-locked-down-under-pandemic-quarantine/
BEIJING FALLS TO CORONAVIRUS… capital of China locked down under pandemic quarantine
Its Infowars so you can decided how good the source is. =)
I haven't clicked on the link but does it involve lizard people and/or chem trails?
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Where is my damned asteroid strike!!??
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Saw a news headline stating:
'Most devastating plague of locusts' in recent history could come within weeks, U.N. warns
So you're getting there, RKL.
The asteroid strike might well be unpredictable though. Based on statistical population estimates, about two thirds of near earth objects larger than 460 feet still remain to be discovered.
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"I thought the flu vaccine was ineffective against coronavirus."
Flu vaccine has no effect on Corona Virus. What that article is saying is that, if you catch the regular flu and Corona Virus is in your community you stand a MUCH greater chance of contracting Corona because your immune system will be weakened.
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https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-02-10/san-diego-county-has-firt
"A botched test result from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Sunday after initially being told by the CDC that they were in the clear."
:facepalm:
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We should start seeing non Asian populations being impacted soon.
Although, in a couple of places I've read that it seems to be more infectious and hard to treat among Asian people.
Scary stuff.
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We should start seeing non Asian populations being impacted soon.
Although, in a couple of places I've read that it seems to be more infectious and hard to treat among Asian people.
Scary stuff.
Something about Coronavirus working with ACE2 receptors, which Asians have a much higher number of than other races.
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I haven't clicked on the link but does it involve lizard people and/or chem trails?
I didn't see that in this specific article. ....but I didn't browse around the site.
On that note, I did watch Iron Sky II on Netflix. It wasn't that good (at all), but added Hollow Earth and Aliens.
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The WHO* have officially named the coronavirus COVID-19.
*World Health Organization, not Pete Townshend & co.
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Corona needs to pay for some brand placement. =)
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WeChina is currently living in a bad B movie.
https://www.facebook.com/352193108780998/posts/482767342390240/?d=n
https://www.facebook.com/352193108780998/posts/482768049056836/?d=n
H/T Viking
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WeChina is currently living in a bad B movie.
https://www.facebook.com/352193108780998/posts/482767342390240/?d=n
https://www.facebook.com/352193108780998/posts/482768049056836/?d=n
H/T Viking
Is there some other 2% mortality disease we take measures like that for or are people lying their asses off?
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There's been a lot of general questioning of how reliable the numbers coming out of china are, but honestly, it's an evolving situation, and probably nobody really knows for sure.
However, WHO personnel are in China now, and the most recently released numbers shot up to 59,493 cases, 1353 deaths. I believe they changed some of the criteria and are allowing clinically diagnosed cases to be counted, not just rt-PCR lab confirmed cases.
China state media declared martial law for the next 14 days in Shiyan, a city of 3.3m people. No private vehicles are to be on the road, and no civilians are permitted to leave their residences. Anyone attempting to leave their residence will be arrested.
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China state media declared martial law for the next 14 days in Shiyan, a city of 3.3m people. No private vehicles are to be on the road, and no civilians are permitted to leave their residences. Anyone attempting to leave their residence will be arrested.
What are the supposed to eat? I don't routinely keep a 14-day supply of food in the house. I know that condemns me in the eyes of the prepper, "gotta have a 6-month supply of MREs and freeze dried meals at all times" folk, but that's just the way it is.
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Is there some other 2% mortality disease we take measures like that for or are people lying their asses off?
While I agree that it is likely that they are lying, there is also a big difference between a virus that has a 2% mortality rate but very low transmission rate and a virus that is easily transmissible but the same mortality rate.
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What are the supposed to eat? I don't routinely keep a 14-day supply of food in the house. I know that condemns me in the eyes of the prepper, "gotta have a 6-month supply of MREs and freeze dried meals at all times" folk, but that's just the way it is.
It's a very recent development, so I'm not sure exactly. A commenter that presumable can read the Chinese document notes that the local government will be rationing and delivering basic living needs to residents. Google translate roughly notes it as: "The basic necessities of residents are provided by townships, sub-districts (development zones, new industrial zones) and village (neighbourhood) committees for regular, fixed-type and fixed-price distribution."
Edited to add: Looks like it's one region on the city, only 400,000 people...
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What are the supposed to eat? I don't routinely keep a 14-day supply of food in the house. I know that condemns me in the eyes of the prepper, "gotta have a 6-month supply of MREs and freeze dried meals at all times" folk, but that's just the way it is.
I live in Hurricane country so people say to keep 2 or 3 weeks of food handy along with some water. Just some extra dry food in the pantry goes a long way. But yes, if you don't have it in the first place, not being able to get it would suck.
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I live in Hurricane country so people say to keep 2 or 3 weeks of food handy along with some water. Just some extra dry food in the pantry goes a long way. But yes, if you don't have it in the first place, not being able to get it would suck.
Super easy to keep at least a week's worth of food around without going into MRE territory. There's lots of stuff people eat regularly that makes good emergency food: An extra few bags of pasta, an extra few bags of rice, a dozen cans of beans or chili or soup. All cheap to buy with long shelf life. Couple that with what you have in your fridge, and you can do alright.
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I am low in prep food now, but beyond the usual overstock of cans, few garden veggies still hanging in there I have 15lbs of rice and 24 cans of Mountain House food. Be nicer if I had more chicken food, about 2 weeks on hand and if no health officials decided to kill all birds.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5yjltuxB_Q
China builds disinfectant tunnel to stand in on the way to work. There's more videos floating around of other versions as well.
I almost hope this panic hits the States so I can watch Vegan California workers being told to walk through a tunnel of chemical disinfectant to go to work.
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https://i.redd.it/hogqn1wf2nf41.png
https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png
Everyone go back and read these links, blow them up on a large screen if you have to. Connect the *expletive deleted*ing dots.
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This is all I can take for today. Jesus.
https://twitter.com/wbyeats1865/status/1227271853753827328?s=21
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5yjltuxB_Q
China builds disinfectant tunnel to stand in on the way to work. There's more videos floating around of other versions as well.
I almost hope this panic hits the States so I can watch Vegan California workers being told to walk through a tunnel of chemical disinfectant to go to work.
They might need that just due to the diseases from all the human waste everywhere.
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For those with the opinion that this is "TIKIWIKI~!~!!!!@", we have a cruise ship quarantined in the Bay of Japan which will provide excellent data on the virulence and morbidity associated with this coronavirus.
We don't have to trust China's numbers, we have an experiment running in a trustworthy country right now.
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Everyone go back and read these links, blow them up on a large screen if you have to. Connect the *expletive deleted*ing dots.
Stupid question for today: what do you recommend we do? I feel the most likely result so far will be trade disruption. Other than that, I just want to make sure I have a little food and water to get by and make sure I am eating decent nutrition so I am not as susceptible to illness. What else do you have in mind?
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"what do you recommend we do?"
Why, die coughing and starving while running around like a panic stricken rabbit, of course.
I'm still waiting for the last Ebola epidemic to kill me off by causing all of my blood to squirt out of my various bodily holes. That was the last panic WE GONNA DIE!!!! rant... now there's another Ebola epidemic going on in Africa (has been for some time) and no one is batting an eyelash.
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I'm still waiting for the last Ebola epidemic to kill me off by causing all of my blood to squirt out of my various bodily holes. That was the last panic WE GONNA DIE!!!! rant... now there's another Ebola epidemic going on in Africa (has been for some time) and no one is batting an eyelash.
Of note, we don't have Ebola victims (known to be infected before leaving Africa!) coming into this country and infecting medical workers, who then go dress shopping in another state to infect salespeople there.
THANKFULLY, that ended without spreading much further because Ebola is harder to spread.
Now, as you can guess from my posts, I'm not concerned this is a world-ending plague, either. But the last Ebola epidemic was a little more concerning as it actually did make its way to this country. (As this virus has, as well, but our medical apparatus appears to be handling this one properly.)
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"Of note, we don't have Ebola victims (known to be infected before leaving Africa!) coming into this country and infecting medical workers, who then go dress shopping in another state to infect salespeople there."
Yet.
It will happen.
But, the truly important fact about Corona Virus?
The common every day influenza is several magnitudes of order more deadly. *expletive deleted*it, we had a perfectly happy, healthy 16 year old girl contract the flu and die 3 days later here in Northern Virginia. Not the Corona with Lime flu, not the Kung Flu, just regular old flu.
No one panics about the flu. But it's a lot worse...
From the CDC...
"While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
And yes, people are getting their rabbit holes in a tight clench over Corona, because it's new and different and, most importantly, it's in the goddamned news cycle 24x7. And in the cubicle just across the way, Fred Fudnuk has been spreading common flu to his coworkers, but he won't know he's sick for another day.
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Of note, we don't have Ebola victims (known to be infected before leaving Africa!) coming into this country and infecting medical workers, who then go dress shopping in another state to infect salespeople there.
THANKFULLY, that ended without spreading much further because Ebola is harder to spread.
Now, as you can guess from my posts, I'm not concerned this is a world-ending plague, either. But the last Ebola epidemic was a little more concerning as it actually did make its way to this country. (As this virus has, as well, but our medical apparatus appears to be handling this one properly.)
Google 'Reston Ebola'- there was a small Ebola outbreak in the US about 25-30 years ago, luckily, the strain wasn't airborne nor deadly. Once again, it was due to hubris in people being overconfident in screwing with things they shouldn't be screwing with.
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"Of note, we don't have Ebola victims (known to be infected before leaving Africa!) coming into this country and infecting medical workers, who then go dress shopping in another state to infect salespeople there."
Yet.
It will happen.
But, the truly important fact about Corona Virus?
The common every day influenza is several magnitudes of order more deadly. *expletive deleted*it, we had a perfectly happy, healthy 16 year old girl contract the flu and die 3 days later here in Northern Virginia. Not the Corona with Lime flu, not the Kung Flu, just regular old flu.
No one panics about the flu. But it's a lot worse...
From the CDC...
"While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
And yes, people are getting their rabbit holes in a tight clench over Corona, because it's new and different and, most importantly, it's in the goddamned news cycle 24x7. And in the cubicle just across the way, Fred Fudnuk has been spreading common flu to his coworkers, but he won't know he's sick for another day.
Several million people get flu every year. Its death rate is about .1%
That sucks if you or a loved one is part of that 1/10th of a percent, but it's an understandable and manageable disease.
Early reports suggest this virus has a death rate about 2%. (As noted, we have an unintended experiment running on a cruise ship which may provide better data soon.)
The death rate from the Spanish Flu Epidemic of 1918 was 2.5%. IF this disease were to spread AND IF the preliminary report of death rates is accurate, we're talking several orders of magnitude in deaths versus flu.
Flu is not "more deadly", it just infects far more people than this one has so far.
So, yes, be wary, but don't panic. It's not "in the wild" on this continent yet and we're not even sure how bad it really is. (Because Communist China's data can't really be trusted about anything.)
Addition: I think that last statement is a big part of the fear. Nobody trusts the Chinese government, (even their own citizens!) so everyone is believing the worst.
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I've also not seen anyone seriously countering the reports that Asians who have more ACE2 receptors are more vulnerable. It could be complete crap, or their ACE2 exposure could be because of lots of smoking and second hand smoke, shrug... duno.
On the other hand, all the sites talking about the ACE2 factor seem to be "off the beaten path" a bit. [tinfoil]
I'm kind of amazed it hasn't run through India like wildfire yet.
But my gut feeling is that while numbers are much higher than the Chicoms are reporting, they're still lower than what the conspiracy rumormongers on twitter are spreading. And that lower population density, and more European and non-Asian genes and receptors might make it a nothingburger here in the U.S.
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I've also not seen anyone seriously countering the reports that Asians who have more ACE2 receptors are more vulnerable. It could be complete crap, or their ACE2 exposure could be because of lots of smoking and second hand smoke, shrug... duno.
On the other hand, all the sites talking about the ACE2 factor seem to be "off the beaten path" a bit. [tinfoil]
I'm kind of amazed it hasn't run through India like wildfire yet.
But my gut feeling is that while numbers are much higher than the Chicoms are reporting, they're still lower than what the conspiracy rumormongers on twitter are spreading. And that lower population density, and more European and non-Asian genes and receptors might make it a nothingburger here in the U.S.
I suspected (and checked to confirm w/the CDC) that, like colds and flu, coronaviri tend to spread more in the Winter/Fall time. (You can catch it at any time, but there's a reason we call it "Flu season")
That's another mitigating factor. We are soon headed out of the best time for such a virus to spread in this country, so it may very well play out before it can spread here. Might suck for Australia, though.
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The Flu comparison is getting to be a rediculous trope. It kills a lot of people- but almost all of those people have severe chronic diseases already or are within months of or a tiny shove in the wrong direction of dying a natural death anyway.
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Apparently, China just changed the way it reports the numbers of people infected to include those with mild symptoms, "clinical cases." Previously they had been only reporting severe cases. This seems likely to reduce the death rate percentage overall.
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If if if if if if...
Oh, and if...
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"Several million people get flu every year. Its death rate is about .1%
That sucks if you or a loved one is part of that 1/10th of a percent, but it's an understandable and manageable disease.
Early reports suggest this virus has a death rate about 2%. "
The problem is, those numbers are comparing apples to orangutans.
The death rate in the UNITED STATES is about .1% But, no one has any real idea what the influenza death rate is in China because they use significantly different reporting methods and, in large part, they're not exactly forthcoming with a lot of their numbers.
Some stuff I've seen says there's some evidence that the influenza death rate in China, on an annualized basis, is between 2 to 3%, or right where the alleged death rate of Coronavirus is (others say higher, others lower, no matter what, it's largely a guess).
What we may well be seeing overall, however, and in both the case of influenza and Corona, is the vast differences in overall access to, and type of, medical care. That means that what serves up a death rate of 2% in China might well have a far lower death rate in other parts of the world where supportive medical care is more advanced.
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Some stuff I've seen says there's some evidence that the influenza death rate in China, on an annualized basis, is between 2 to 3%, or right where the alleged death rate of Coronavirus is (others say higher, others lower, no matter what, it's largely a guess).
What we may well be seeing overall, however, and in both the case of influenza and Corona, is the vast differences in overall access to, and type of, medical care. That means that what serves up a death rate of 2% in China might well have a far lower death rate in other parts of the world where supportive medical care is more advanced.
Now that is an interesting thought.
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Don't want to start a separate argument, but weren't the ebola cases in the US in the last 10 years because we transported sick people into the US and didn't put them in a high security disease location? Which resulted in a nurse catching it among a couple others?
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I also wonder how many uninfected people in China were needlessly exposed to the virus as they were hauled off to some of the horrifying quarantine centers and placed in general pop.
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"The Flu comparison is getting to be a rediculous trope. It kills a lot of people- but almost all of those people have severe chronic diseases already or are within months of or a tiny shove in the wrong direction of dying a natural death anyway."
And who's to say that isn't the exact same way Corona is killing its victims?
Old man Wu got himself Corona virus and dies. But he was also struggling with chronic emphysema. OMG! CORONA!
Little girl Lin contracts Corona virus and dies. But she as also struggling mightily with leukemia. OMG! CORONA!
The flu comparison is being made because it's directly on point. Corona and flu have very similar mechanisms and actions in the body, and both lead to largely the same symptoms and, eventually, cause of death.
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Google 'Reston Ebola'- there was a small Ebola outbreak in the US about 25-30 years ago, luckily, the strain wasn't airborne nor deadly. Once again, it was due to hubris in people being overconfident in screwing with things they shouldn't be screwing with.
That strain of Ebola also doesn't infect humans.
The bestseller "The Hot Zone" was a really interesting, sometimes quite scary, review of the different hemhorragic (sp?) viruses and went into detail about the response to the Reston incident.
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Here we go. Pretty good rundown on flu and Corona...
https://www.ynhhs.org/patient-care/urgent-care/flu-or-coronavirus
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Here's an on point article describing the suspect nature of Chinese reporting of Corona virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/white-house-does-not-have-high-confidence-in-chinas-coronavirus-information-official-says.html
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And this is a really interesting article on the mathematics of communicability.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/researchers-say-the-coronavirus-may-be-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html
Take a look at how freaking communicable measles is... Jesus!
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Take a look at how freaking communicable measles is... !
Well, that's why we give people autis....errr... uh... vaccinate people for it!
Seriously, it's a frighteningly scary disease. 400-500 children a year died from it before the vaccine (in the U.S. alone!) and that was with quarantine protocols being used.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/life-before-and-after-the-measles-vaccine#Fighting-the-anti-vaccination-movement
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"Well, that's why we give people autis....errr... uh... vaccinate people for it!"
One of my coworkers has a severely autistic son.
I mentioned that I'd gotten the first of the two Shingles vaccine shots. You could tell he wasn't pleased with me, but at least he didn't go out of his way to "educate" me on the error of my ways.
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Interesting article. I actually thought more people died of measles in its pre-vaccination period.
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And who's to say that isn't the exact same way Corona is killing its victims?
Old man Wu got himself Corona virus and dies. But he was also struggling with chronic emphysema. OMG! CORONA!
Little girl Lin contracts Corona virus and dies. But she as also struggling mightily with leukemia. OMG! CORONA!
The flu comparison is being made because it's directly on point. Corona and flu have very similar mechanisms and actions in the body, and both lead to largely the same symptoms and, eventually, cause of death.
That Chinese reaction tho.
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Move to North Korea and you'll be safe. They haven't had a single case of COVID-19, honest.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/north-korea-clearly-lying-coronavirus-cases-expert
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Hey! Everyone knows you can trust the Norks!
They're stand up guys!
That is, when they're not starving too much and have the energy to stand...
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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Just don't try to take their posters and you'll be fine
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Hey! Everyone knows you can trust the Norks!
They're stand up guys!
That is, when they're not starving too much and have the energy to stand...
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
We should send Dennis Rodman back there to learn of their secrets to being disease free.
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And another article about the Norks and Corona...
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-reportedly-spread-north-korea-163908984.html
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"Well, that's why we give people autis....errr... uh... vaccinate people for it!"
One of my coworkers has a severely autistic son.
I mentioned that I'd gotten the first of the two Shingles vaccine shots. You could tell he wasn't pleased with me, but at least he didn't go out of his way to "educate" me on the error of my ways.
Start slowly acting more and more autistic while at work... >:D
(https://i.imgur.com/EAWsg6Q.jpeg)
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Start slowly acting more and more autistic while at work... >:D
(https://i.imgur.com/EAWsg6Q.jpeg)
Who needs to act?
From what I've overheard him telling a coworker who sits next to him, the son is apparently prone to bouts of violence and is completely nonverbal.
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Who needs to act?
From what I've overheard him telling a coworker who sits next to him, the son is apparently prone to bouts of violence and is completely nonverbal.
So you are there already?
That almost describes me at work before I get my requisite coffee in me.
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My non-verbal violence is a choice, but sure, whatever. :rofl:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0cml7ny6NI
:facepalm:
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https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1228346158126419968?s=21
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0cml7ny6NI
:facepalm:
That's not quite the zombie apocalypse that we wanted, but its the zombie apocalypse that we got.
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So which essential oil should I be buying stock in?
Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
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Today's amusement is that everyone on NPR seemed to misspeak, calling it Corvid-19. Pretty sure if the jays, crows, and ravens cooked something up for us it would be far deadlier.
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1
The bad news is that there are nearly an estimated 1 million infected, the good news is that it might be a lot less fatal than expected.
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For those with the opinion that this is "TIKIWIKI~!~!!!!@", we have a cruise ship quarantined in the Bay of Japan which will provide excellent data on the virulence and morbidity associated with this coronavirus.
We don't have to trust China's numbers, we have an experiment running in a trustworthy country right now.
The quarantine efforts on that ship failed:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/17/coronavirus-official-explains-diamond-princess-cruise-quarantine-fail/4785290002/
I don't think it has shown to be particularly lethal to infected people on that ship, however.
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The quarantine efforts on that ship failed:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/17/coronavirus-official-explains-diamond-princess-cruise-quarantine-fail/4785290002/
I don't think it has shown to be particularly lethal to infected people on that ship, however.
Yeah, that wasn't an ordinary failure, it was an epic failure. I watched a yootoob video of a Japanese infectious disease expert's brief trip aboard the ship this morning- he described it as there being no red or green zones, infected moved about and mingled with uninfected, so there was no quarantine of the passengers from eachother. He went on to say that he's responded to ebola and SARS outbreaks in the past and had no fear of contracting the diseases due to the protocol in place, but was terrified of what he saw in the ship.
Then they sent a whole lot of infected people into the wild, on planes and buses, mixed with people who weren't infected.
We may never know the actual lethality of the disease from the ship- the Americans on board who were infected were whisked away, ostensibly into quarantine on CONUS. We might want to ask ourselves- why would they do this, unless A) the disease isn't very serious or B) the disease is extremely serious
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"We may never know the actual lethality of the disease from the ship- the Americans on board who were infected were whisked away, ostensibly into quarantine on CONUS. We might want to ask ourselves- why would they do this, unless A) the disease isn't very serious or B) the disease is extremely serious."
Or C... it's just serious enough...
Apparently there's been a bunch of tensions between the Japanese and Americans over the handling of the procedures on the ship and that's the big driving factor in why they're pulling the Americans off.
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Found the video. What he is describing is a contagion nightmare caused by a bureaucratic nightmare.
https://twitter.com/snake_eyes11_11/status/1229793713515200513?s=21
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Well this is fun... the FBI has put in a substantial order for masks and sanatizer, and US hospitals are dusting off pandemic response plans.
Maybe it's time to re-examine what I have on hand, and what I should lay away.
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Well this is fun... the FBI has put in a substantial order for masks and sanatizer, and US hospitals are dusting off pandemic response plans.
Maybe it's time to re-examine what I have on hand, and what I should lay away.
The market is taking another hit today, supposedly on pandemic fears. Man, why didn't I stockpile N95 masks so I could become a pandemic Barron?
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"We may never know the actual lethality of the disease from the ship- the Americans on board who were infected were whisked away, ostensibly into quarantine on CONUS. We might want to ask ourselves- why would they do this, unless A) the disease isn't very serious or B) the disease is extremely serious."
Or C... it's just serious enough...
Apparently there's been a bunch of tensions between the Japanese and Americans over the handling of the procedures on the ship and that's the big driving factor in why they're pulling the Americans off.
I'm with Mike. I think it's just serious enough.
A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems. People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together. Expect higher infection rates.
I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India. Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.
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Probably going to need 100 masks per person per month for normal activities, this is replacing the mask every time you use it.
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I'm with Mike. I think it's just serious enough.
A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems. People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together. Expect higher infection rates.
I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India. Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.
South Korea is getting an outbreak started:
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/20/South-Korea-reports-first-COVID-19-death-cases-rise-to-104/6161582193510/
This ought to give us a better idea of what happens in a developed country.
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NOW, for the tinfoil hat stuff.
https://www.babycenter.com/0_coronavirus-update-few-babies-and-young-children-getting-sic_40006924.bc
I'm seeing reports1 like this that the deaths are almost universally among people in their 60s and older. Most of the infections are from older sets, too.
Additionally, similar reports1 say that there are very few children infected. Zero deaths, and very few infections. Some have thought that this means the symptoms are so mild in children that they rarely even get tested.
The article notes that coronavirii tend to infect those older than age 12.
Where's the tinfoil hat stuff? Well, that type of disease sure sounds like a prime candidate for a "Logan's Run" disease, wiping out the elderly so the state doesn't have to pay for medical care after their "social usefulness" is over. (Of course, the death rate would have to be higher to be effective, though.)
I don't think that's what is going on here, but that really sounds like something China might like to have on hand, in case "costs" get too high....
1: The linked article nicely ties both of these issues together. Which, of course, may mean nothing because reporting is generally bad, wrong, and even worse when coming out of China.
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Probably going to need 100 masks per person per month for normal activities, this is replacing the mask every time you use it.
The thing is... the masks apparently don't really do much to keep you from getting the illness, from what I've read.
What they are a lot more effective at is keeping someone who is infected from spreading it.
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"I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India. Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes."
I made that point a few days ago, maybe in this thread, maybe in another, that death rates due to not only Corona but the good old seasonal flu are very likely higher in nations like China (vs the US) because of the differences in supportive care when someone does come down with it.
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My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.
My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.
I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.
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The thing is... the masks apparently don't really do much to keep you from getting the illness, from what I've read.
What they are a lot more effective at is keeping someone who is infected from spreading it.
That is true, why a surgeon wears a mask, protects the patient.
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I'm with Mike. I think it's just serious enough.
A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems. People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together. Expect higher infection rates.
I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India. Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.
Add smoking, probably poor food if you're poor (if not outright dangerous, google "gutter oil") and people are going to be worse off.
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There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.
I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.
That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.
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There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.
I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.
That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.
So you're saying the coronavirus is RACIST?
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There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.
I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.
That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.
So Elizabeth Warren has a 1/1024 chance of catching it?
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My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.
My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.
I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.
If it ramps up in China, and even spreads to places like India....it could be a straight *expletive deleted*it show for awhile.
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There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.
I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.
That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.
That kinda puts a damper on "bioweapon". Why make a weapon that your particular genetics are more susceptible to? Of course they could have been working on making themselves less susceptible and something went wrong. [tinfoil] :)
Without tinfoil, I still think there's some small probability it could have been something they were mucking around with for "reasons", and the crappy commie pinko lab protocols let it get out.
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That kinda puts a damper on "bioweapon". Why make a weapon that your particular genetics are more susceptible to? Of course they could have been working on making themselves less susceptible and something went wrong. [tinfoil] :)
Without tinfoil, I still think there's some small probability it could have been something they were mucking around with for "reasons", and the crappy commie pinko lab protocols let it get out.
Unless it was a bioweapon for their own population, as I suggested....
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If it ramps up in China, and even spreads to places like India....it could be a straight *expletive deleted*it show for awhile.
Morality and sympathy aside, as say, an alien observer from space, I would be curious as to the global fallout if the virus itself were in fact mostly confined, but devastatingly so, to only areas with major Asian and related populations. North and South America, Europe, Africa, etc. wouldn't be getting sick to any degree with working quarantines in place, but what consequences might there be for them?
Stock market and other economic crashes for sure.
A bunch of cheap made in China stuff not available due to shipping restrictions.
I never see "product of China" food in the grocery stores (at least for staples), but I would expect US and European (where there may be more Chinese food products) populations will make panic runs that our supply chain structure wouldn't be able to keep up with. So even foodstuff that isn't shipped in from overseas might run short just because "panic" and not being able to restock fast enough from US distribution centers.
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Unless it was a bioweapon for their own population, as I suggested....
True, but that seems to be dangerous territory, attempting to engineer by age. I would assume lots could go wrong, including mutation to affect more cohorts.
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Heck, if the Han Chinese were trying to engineer a genetic bioweapon, I would expect the first targets would be the Tibetans and the Uighurs.
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Morality and sympathy aside, as say, an alien observer from space, I would be curious as to the global fallout if the virus itself were in fact mostly confined, but devastatingly so, to only areas with major Asian and related populations. North and South America, Europe, Africa, etc. wouldn't be getting sick to any degree with working quarantines in place, but what consequences might there be for them?
Stock market and other economic crashes for sure.
A bunch of cheap made in China stuff not available due to shipping restrictions.
I never see "product of China" food in the grocery stores (at least for staples), but I would expect US and European (where there may be more Chinese food products) populations will make panic runs that our supply chain structure wouldn't be able to keep up with. So even foodstuff that isn't shipped in from overseas might run short just because "panic" and not being able to restock fast enough from US distribution centers.
As far as runs on groceries, do you think it would happen all at once nationwide? If not, the system might still be okay.
Amazon still has Mountain House. =)
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My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.
My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.
I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.
I have some rice, but what I have is a bit old. I should get some more canned stuff. I also like those small instant mashed potato packages. They keep for a good while. I will have to think about powdered milk or something that would substitute for baking.
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Store that rice and other dry stuff in the deep freeze if you have room. It will last a long time.
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That is in part something I am thinking about. Normally we worry about hurricane preparations down here. It is almost guaranteed the power will be out for a period of time so you don't plan on that being available. With this sort of preparation, utilities might be just fine assuming it doesn't get to zombie apocalypse levels.
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I have some rice, but what I have is a bit old. I should get some more canned stuff. I also like those small instant mashed potato packages. They keep for a good while. I will have to think about powdered milk or something that would substitute for baking.
There has been rice recovered from Egyptian tombs that was still edible.
I fill 1/2 gallon Mason jars, put it in the oven at 250 to dry it, then seal the jars.
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As far as runs on groceries, do you think it would happen all at once nationwide? If not, the system might still be okay.
Amazon still has Mountain House. =)
I don't know. I suppose it would depend on the level of the panic. Might just be regional shortages, or heck, people might actually stay smart and calm and there wouldn't be a panic or run on groceries, fuel, etc.
For freeze dried/dehydrated, instead of Mountain House, etc. I started using Auguson Farms stuff in the #10 tins. A lot of it comes with multiple smaller meals in the tin, so you don't have to worry about using the whole tin up after you open it. The stuff ranges from 10-30 year lifespans for most of it. If you hit them at one of their sales, it's a good bit cheaper than Mountain House, and you can run the gamut from meat to veggies to fruit. I needed to restock my long term supplies after I moved here, so now one whole shelf of my pantry is their #10 tins.
https://www.augasonfarms.com/
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Heck, if the Han Chinese were trying to engineer a genetic bioweapon, I would expect the first targets would be the Tibetans and the Uighurs.
or the Japanese, I think they are still pissed about WWII
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The article notes that coronavirii tend to infect those older than age 12.
I wish this were true.
In one of the videos I posted several pages back showed a hospital stacking children's bodies into a body bag.
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Store that rice and other dry stuff in the deep freeze if you have room. It will last a long time.
Storing any grain product in the freezer is a good idea simply because it's not uncommon for grains to harbor insect eggs even after cleaning and processing, or which are introduced at some other point in the process.
I had a bag of sweet sushi rice that I opened one day and discovered that I was no longer alone in my kitchen.
Storing it in the freezer eventually kills those critters. And, for some grains like brown rice, cracked wheat, or whole wheat flour, which have a fair amount of fat in them, it prevents the fat from going rancid a LOT longer.
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"gutter oil"
Holy sweet jesus...
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Looks like a white guy on a cruise ship got it. I was just watching the interview on Fox Business, and he looks maybe in his 50s? It sounds like that packed cruise ship turned into an incubator.
Finally, at the end of the world, my misanthropy is going to pay off! :laugh:
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"gutter oil"
Holy sweet jesus...
I saw a video on that awhile back- those people are insane. [barf] [barf] [barf]
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"Looks like a white guy on a cruise ship got it."
And the left is now accusing him of cultural appropriation for catching the Kung Flu.
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or the Japanese, I think they are still pissed about WWII
My wife would refuse to wait on Japanese at the restaurant she worked at
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I don't know. I suppose it would depend on the level of the panic. Might just be regional shortages, or heck, people might actually stay smart and calm and there wouldn't be a panic or run on groceries, fuel, etc.
For freeze dried/dehydrated, instead of Mountain House, etc. I started using Auguson Farms stuff in the #10 tins. A lot of it comes with multiple smaller meals in the tin, so you don't have to worry about using the whole tin up after you open it. The stuff ranges from 10-30 year lifespans for most of it. If you hit them at one of their sales, it's a good bit cheaper than Mountain House, and you can run the gamut from meat to veggies to fruit. I needed to restock my long term supplies after I moved here, so now one whole shelf of my pantry is their #10 tins.
https://www.augasonfarms.com/
Thanks for the tip. Looks like some good stuff.
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"gutter oil"
Holy sweet jesus...
I must have missed something. What are you quoting?
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I must have missed something. What are you quoting?
Vikings post, number 210.
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Vikings post, number 210.
Yeah, I searched it too. I couldn't bring myself to click the links, just the summaries on Bing were enough to make me sick.
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Yeah, I searched it too. I couldn't bring myself to click the links, just the summaries on Bing were enough to make me sick.
The Wiki page gives a brief definition that gives a glimpse of how bad it might be. So lots of people doing whatever they can to bypass food regulations to make extra profit.
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Purportedly from Iran :'(
https://mobile.twitter.com/Dimitri771177/status/1231320004316082178
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Purportedly from Iran :'(
https://mobile.twitter.com/Dimitri771177/status/1231320004316082178
Sorry, that page doesn’t exist!
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I was able to see it a few minutes ago. It showed a number of young girls laying on tables looking like they are sick or having breathing problems. Some of the comments further down were thinking it was not corona virus, but from Syria for gas attacks or something. Maybe it got deleted for that reason.
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Morality and sympathy aside, as say, an alien observer from space, I would be curious as to the global fallout if the virus itself were in fact mostly confined, but devastatingly so, to only areas with major Asian and related populations. North and South America, Europe, Africa, etc. wouldn't be getting sick to any degree with working quarantines in place, but what consequences might there be for them?
Stock market and other economic crashes for sure.
A bunch of cheap made in China stuff not available due to shipping restrictions.
I never see "product of China" food in the grocery stores (at least for staples), but I would expect US and European (where there may be more Chinese food products) populations will make panic runs that our supply chain structure wouldn't be able to keep up with. So even foodstuff that isn't shipped in from overseas might run short just because "panic" and not being able to restock fast enough from US distribution centers.
The potential lack of PCs from China has become an issue of concern in my workplace, we go through so many of them each month. I can see generic drugs becoming a HUGE issue if what I've read about most being produced in China being true.
Interesting times ahead.
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For freeze dried/dehydrated, instead of Mountain House, etc. I started using Auguson Farms stuff in the #10 tins. A lot of it comes with multiple smaller meals in the tin, so you don't have to worry about using the whole tin up after you open it. The stuff ranges from 10-30 year lifespans for most of it. If you hit them at one of their sales, it's a good bit cheaper than Mountain House, and you can run the gamut from meat to veggies to fruit. I needed to restock my long term supplies after I moved here, so now one whole shelf of my pantry is their #10 tins.
https://www.augasonfarms.com/
Ben, what are you looking at? What I see on their web site is what I'm accustomed to from Mountain House: one pouch holds 4 or 6 or 8 servings, and that's even in their 1-person/30 day kit. I'm sure that's efficient packaging for them as the vendor, but it isn't convenient for the one person who needs to live off the stuff for a month. Where are these "multiple smaller meals" of which you speak? (Or is it "spake"?)
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Ben, what are you looking at? What I see on their web site is what I'm accustomed to from Mountain House: one pouch holds 4 or 6 or 8 servings, and that's even in their 1-person/30 day kit. I'm sure that's efficient packaging for them as the vendor, but it isn't convenient for the one person who needs to live off the stuff for a month. Where are these "multiple smaller meals" of which you speak? (Or is it "spake"?)
I couldn't remember the name, but just looked it up. It's their "super cans". Not everything is available that way - I think just some entrees. However for stuff like banana chips or whatever for your fruits and whatnot, I think they can be readily vacuum sealed after opening the can, which would let you take your time eating them. Even if it's not a super can, if you're at the point you have to break open a tin, just using the plastic lid that comes with it will keep stuff fresh long enough for even just one person to eat it. You might just be eating lasagna every other day for a couple of weeks or so. :)
Example super can:
https://www.augasonfarms.com/lasagna-super-can
Again, I will stress that IMO, it's best to buy from them when they have one of their site-wide sales to get the best bang for the buck.
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More discussion about lab safety
https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/
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Previously deleted video:
https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status/1231483712036012033?s=21
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One of the comments said the 2nd little girl in the video had make-up on. It does sort of look like that. Not sure if that means anything.
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https://twitter.com/himalayaglobal/status/1231684285599346688?s=21
That sounds staggering, though probably about right.
1.4B @ 2-3% conservatively estimated death rate yields 28-42million dead.
It could be far more with secondary effects of starvation or lack of hospital facilities.
China would have been better off if they got nuked.
They had a 2 month+ head start on the rest of us, and have been lying all along. It’ll be interesting to see if they start rebuilding or are completely wiped out in another 2 months with reinfection.
I haven’t exactly been Captain Rosey on this topic, but there is a probability things are far worse than I even considered.
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We need to send Greta to China to protest all of the pollutants China is putting in the air with their incinerators.
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No way to know what the heck is going on over there in China.
Normally I'd say, assume the worst, but all things considered that may actually cause despair.
The truth is probably something not even being discussed.
Carry on then, the future has always been uncertain, we're all just a little more aware of that reality.
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Get ready for a rough day on the markets.
Apparently Corona cases spiked in Italy (and elsewhere), and that tanked European markets, and that's having a shakedown effect on US markets. The major markets futures are all down about 2.5% at the moment. For the Dow that implies an opening loss of about 750 points.
Gold is surging and WTI crude is down about $2 a barrel.
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Get ready for a rough day on the markets.
Apparently Corona cases spiked in Italy (and elsewhere), and that tanked European markets, and that's having a shakedown effect on US markets. The major markets futures are all down about 2.5% at the moment. For the Dow that implies an opening loss of about 750 points.
Gold is surging and WTI crude is down about $2 a barrel.
Bound to happen. I just saw -850, so I wouldn't be surprised if we hit -1000 or more today. Between Goldman Sachs calling for the possibility of non-linear movement due to impacted trade and imports, and Peter Navarro yesterday saying that, related to the virus, we have dangerously over-relied on imports and offshore manufacturing, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2009 sized drops coming.
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Infections per day are supposedly way, way down in China (if you can believe the Chinese government) but infections outside of the China are up quite a bit as a percentage. Even so, we're still at just over 2k confirmed cases outside of China and almost all of those in Asia which - given that we're about a month in doesn't strike me as tikiwiki just yet.
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Infections per day are supposedly way, way down in China (if you can believe the Chinese government) but infections outside of the China are up quite a bit as a percentage. Even so, we're still at just over 2k confirmed cases outside of China and almost all of those in Asia which - given that we're about a month in doesn't strike me as tikiwiki just yet.
I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.
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I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.
Where I begin to get worried is the numbers in Italy, India, and South Korea. These are countries that I would generally trust regarding sharing information.
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I'm buying a shitton of out of the money puts on the S&P today with a may expiration. I might die, but I'll die filthy rich. :old:
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I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.
Last numbers I saw were 219 cases and 5 fatalities in Italy. South Korea has 833 confirmed cases with 8 fatalities ... that's a bigger country to watch in my opinion.
As far as cities being quarantined ... they're closing schools, businesses, and restaurants and requesting residents stay inside. Big steps, but not what I'd call quarantining cities.
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Last numbers I saw were 219 cases and 5 fatalities in Italy. South Korea has 833 confirmed cases with 8 fatalities ... that's a bigger country to watch in my opinion.
As far as cities being quarantined ... they're closing schools, businesses, and restaurants and requesting residents stay inside. Big steps, but not what I'd call quarantining cities.
So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.
South Korea is just under 1%, so far. As you said, it will be one to watch.
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So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.
It is, but also isn't. I was only able to find information on three of the five Italy deaths, but the three I found ranged in age from 75 to 78 and one of those was a cancer patient. Unsurprisingly and just as with diseases like the flu, older people and people with compromised immune systems are much more likely to die. That's also an age range where people tend to still be pretty active and go out in public and thus have a higher risk of exposure.
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I'd like to see some data with the infection and death numbers broken down by age. The one reason I would begin to worry earlier than some of you is age. While the number is arbitrary, I have seen "60" as the cutoff where death goes way up - moreso than the regular flu, and gee, I just turned 60. They are using "under 40" for "likely don't need to worry much".
Without bragging, I think I'm in much better shape than the average 60 year old, and maybe the average 40 year old, but there might be factors other than health that come into play with age.
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So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.
South Korea is just under 1%, so far. As you said, it will be one to watch.
Figure 15% need intensive care and 5% need a ventilator for an extended period of time, of which 1/4 of them don't make it.... so it'll end up around 2%.
Those numbers are alarming, but not world ending. What I do worry about is I keep hearing reports of people who were 'recovered' but later tested positive for the virus, more reports of re-infection being far more severe than initial infection due to a overpowered immune response.
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DOW opens down 950.
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Buy stocks now!!! Buy buy buy buy BUY!!!!!!!!!!!
The markets WILL rebound.
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Don't just stand there!
PANIC AND DO SOMETHING!
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In this case, I think I'll be waiting till >-2000 before I dip my toes back into the stock index. I might buy some Wellesley earlier.
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Don't just stand there!
PANIC AND DO SOMETHING!
Exactly.
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I'd like to see some data with the infection and death numbers broken down by age. The one reason I would begin to worry earlier than some of you is age. While the number is arbitrary, I have seen "60" as the cutoff where death goes way up - moreso than the regular flu, and gee, I just turned 60. They are using "under 40" for "likely don't need to worry much".
Without bragging, I think I'm in much better shape than the average 60 year old, and maybe the average 40 year old, but there might be factors other than health that come into play with age.
Calling on my memory for what I know of the Spanish Flu, the unique characteristic that made it an especially bad pandemic was that it tended to kill young and otherwise healthy people.
So far, this virus seems to be acting like most diseases and killing off the otherwise weak and unhealthy....
Which, again, makes my wild-tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that this was a "Logan's Run" or "Thanos" style effort by the Chinese at population control more likely.... Or, you know, it's just a normal disease.
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Don't forget the massive amount of white privilege that goes along with it because the vast majority of infections and deaths have been in people of color...
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In my Vanguard index, T. Rowe Price index, and Wellesley funds in my IRA, I rest assured that they are re-balanced every business day and they can worry about buying more stocks when the market is down. It will be interesting to see how many thousands of dollars the IRA will go down today.
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Wise words from CNBC...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/avoid-this-investing-mistake-as-coronavirus-fears-grip-the-markets.html
Back when the great recession hit I was on a couple of other sites (most now gone) and you could tell people were stating to panic... Despite what some people were telling them (me included), the eventually couldn't take it any more and sold on the downhill side of the equation, some of them lost a TON of money.
Couple of years later the markets were humming along nice again, we were well on our way toward recovering our losses, and most of us who saw it for what it was, one hell of a buying opportunity, were talking about the gains we were making when one very bitter soul chimed in bitching about how he had lost so much and would never see it again.
He was one of the people who had panicked and sold...
Then he admitted that he didn't bank the money he had pulled out... he went and spent it on stupid *expletive deleted*it.
And I think he truly expected us to pity him because he was "manipulated into taking that course of action" or some other stupid whiny reason that wasn't a reason at all. He got kind of frosted that he wasn't getting a lot of support, and I think he went full snit and went away forever when someone searched and reposted the threads with all the advice he had gotten...
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Wise words from CNBC...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/avoid-this-investing-mistake-as-coronavirus-fears-grip-the-markets.html
Back when the great recession hit I was on a couple of other sites (most now gone) and you could tell people were stating to panic... Despite what some people were telling them (me included), the eventually couldn't take it any more and sold on the downhill side of the equation, some of them lost a TON of money.
Couple of years later the markets were humming along nice again, we were well on our way toward recovering our losses, and most of us who saw it for what it was, one hell of a buying opportunity, were talking about the gains we were making when one very bitter soul chimed in bitching about how he had lost so much and would never see it again.
He was one of the people who had panicked and sold...
Then he admitted that he didn't bank the money he had pulled out... he went and spent it on stupid *expletive deleted*it.
And I think he truly expected us to pity him because he was "manipulated into taking that course of action" or some other stupid whiny reason that wasn't a reason at all. He got kind of frosted that he wasn't getting a lot of support, and I think he went full snit and went away forever when someone searched and reposted the threads with all the advice he had gotten...
I am sure the advice was "buy high, sell low" right? =)
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That's actually my take away. I might be dumping a bunch of cash into my retirement mutual funds soon.
Or waiting till Tesla dips when the delay of the china factory opening is official and buy some of that.
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In my Vanguard index, T. Rowe Price index, and Wellesley funds in my IRA,
I'm right now debating how to handle Wellesley. I was listening to FoxBusiness this morning, and they made a good case for cashing out bonds to take the profits. Wellesley is mostly bonds, so now I'm kinda waffling on, should I sell some and convert to total stock market index, buy some more of it, or do nothing and let the managers do their thing.
Again, if things take more than a 2000 point drop, I'm buying some more of each. Otherwise, being fully in retirement, I don't want to gamble one way or the other and am more prone to letting things ride and not worrying about my cash reserves doing nothing.
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More wise words from CNBC...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/past-disease-outbreaks-show-investors-shoud-ignore-the-noise-of-coronavirus.html
Well, maybe not such wise words when they misspell the link... shoud instead of should....
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I'm not selling, holding and buying
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If I were the type to play the markets I might try to take advantage of the fluctuation, but I learned long ago I'm not smart enough to do that.
I think instead I'll continue on my normal buying routine.
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I'm not selling, holding and buying
I'm buying back after the markets get done correcting. Give it a week or two... As soon as we start seeing deaths on CONUS, the people who previously haven't been paying attention are going to lose their crap.
Lot of murmuring at work today about this, including one guy who's pretty tuned in and converted his 401k to money market over a week ago and another who was strongly considering the same today- both in their late 50s, early 60s.. I only feel 1/2 as abnormal now.
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I'm buying back after the markets get done correcting. Give it a week or two... As soon as we start seeing deaths on CONUS, the people who previously haven't been paying attention are going to lose their crap.
Lot of murmuring at work today about this, including one guy who's pretty tuned in and converted his 401k to money market over a week ago and another who was strongly considering the same today- both in their late 50s, early 60s.. I only feel 1/2 as abnormal now.
I'm on automatic buy every 14 days and I have 16-17 years until retirement. I made out good holding and buying through the last two down turns, I'm staying my course for another 10 years.
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As the Bogleheads like to talk about, I decided on my asset allocation and I stick with it. I look at the allocation once a year to see if it is still meeting my needs and otherwise make no changes, such as buying or selling to try and time the market.
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Ooh, and the IRA is down $ 12,000 today.
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Market is still higher than 4Q19? I thought it was supposed to be going down. Not impressed yet.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
Has this been posted yet?
I for one welcome our new viral overlords.
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Yesterday my personal and 401K holdings dropped nearly $30,000
But, for the year, I'm still up over $5,000.
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Remember that ship quarantined in Japan? (Well, just off of Japan)
https://news.yahoo.com/fourth-person-quarantined-ship-dies-japan-plans-measures-052934371.html
So far 700 have been diagnosed with COVID-19. (And there were apparently some monumental screw-ups with the quarantine, leading to cases popping up in Japan, proper, but I digress.)
Of those, 4 have died. 10 more deaths would put it at the 2% that was reported out of China, but 4 deaths1 (just over .5% mortality) is still FAR more deadly than the flu.
This is a frightening disease. AND it really highlights just a miniscule portion of the dangers of a global supply chain. It works great until we have a black swan event2, and then the markets tank and companies have to do things they should have been doing all along to mitigate risk, causing the whole world to suffer.
1: One of the deaths has not yet been blamed on the virus, but has no alternative explanation, either, so I'm going with the virus until I get better data.
2: Just a reminder that "black swan" doesn't mean a rare event. It means an event that we thought was rare because of our perspective, but in truth isn't rare at all.
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Looks like we're opening stable this morning. We should also remember that in DEC18, we dropped from 25.5K to 22.5K, and most people didn't panic. That was 3000 points vs 1000 points. In fact people (me included) were complaining valuations were still too high.
Really, looking over the last couple of years, people who have been in the market for longer than that will still have made money and will be ahead even if we drop back to Dow 20K. You just need to have a plan and be diversified and have patience. Maybe lots of patience, but the market recovered after the Spanish Flu as well. We'd be looking at at least as big of a drop as some people are predicting for the beer virus if any of the knuckleheads running against Trump were to win this November.
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And the IRA is down another $ 10K today, for a two day total of $ 22k. I have now given up all of this year's gains.
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Of those, 4 have died. 10 more deaths would put it at the 2% that was reported out of China, but 4 deaths1 (just over .5% mortality) is still FAR more deadly than the flu.
That's a hell of a reduction. And I'd like to see an adjustment that quantifies for the age distribution of everyone on the ship vs. the world or the U.S. at large too. And it might drop to the level of the flu.
Not that we'll ever know actual figures for China, unless the CIA or CDC can super sleuth it out from secondary information that China didn't think to hide, like consumer data or travel info from before and after the epidemic. I'd also like to see numbers for smokers vs. non smokers, and I wonder about pollution too. (China has the world's highest per-capita rate of smoking, 53% of all males approximately.)
The numbers for the ship are interesting, but I still wonder if all reported cases are caught. If there were asymptomatic people who passed, or the tests aren't given to everyone, or if the tests have a false negative rate... then the death rate per total infections could still turn out to be minuscule. The 2% China mortality figure is swallowed instantly if there's another few million sitting at home with no symptoms, or those of a mild/moderate cold and nothing worse and they never get recorded. For what "recording" in China is worth anyway.
I'm not saying it's a nothing burger, but I think it still has the potential to turn out like SARS, N1H1, and Avian Flu before it.
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That's a hell of a reduction. And I'd like to see an adjustment that quantifies for the age distribution of everyone on the ship vs. the world or the U.S. at large too. And it might drop to the level of the flu.
Not that we'll ever know actual figures for China, unless the CIA or CDC can super sleuth it out from secondary information that China didn't think to hide, like consumer data or travel info from before and after the epidemic. I'd also like to see numbers for smokers vs. non smokers, and I wonder about pollution too. (China has the world's highest per-capita rate of smoking, 53% of all males approximately.)
The numbers for the ship are interesting, but I still wonder if all reported cases are caught. If there were asymptomatic people who passed, or the tests aren't given to everyone, or if the tests have a false negative rate... then the death rate per total infections could still turn out to be minuscule. The 2% China mortality figure is swallowed instantly if there's another few million sitting at home with no symptoms, or those of a mild/moderate cold and nothing worse and they never get recorded. For what "recording" in China is worth anyway.
I'm not saying it's a nothing burger, but I think it still has the potential to turn out like SARS, N1H1, and Avian Flu before it.
I think I posted elsewhere in the thread that coronavirii tend to not affect children. As in, cases of individuals under 12 get sick at a much lower rate, and even more rarely become serious. Death is pretty much unheard of.
This includes infants and others with weak immune systems.
As a result, I'm not so sure controlling for age will be that effective in judging mortality, as we base the death rate vs. the infection rate. If it is mainly older people getting infected, trying to decrease the average age of the populace by including younger people would have no effect on the mortality of the virus.
Here's an article about SARS (caused by another coronavirus) and children.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20030429/sars-may-be-milder-in-children
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I put an order in to convert my 401k to money market this last weekend, it doesn’t go through until the end of the day today, and I’m down about 25k already. I bought several hundred put contracts on the S&P on midday morning, already up 9k, a 30% drop in the S&P would bet me close to a million, it’s still a long shot, and I would still have to survive whatever caused the drop in order to spend it.
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a 30% drop in the S&P would bet me close to a million,
The crash of 1929 only dropped 25%.
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And Dow down 1200 points today.
I actually started dipping my toes in. This morning I bought some more ARCC and BP in my Ameritrade account. Both are high dividend stocks. ARCC barely fluctuates more than a few points ever, and this is the cheapest I've seen it since I first bought it so I bought more to hold. BP is also down to where I first got into it and I bought some more that I'll sell when it gets back up to 40ish.
Also just a few minutes ago bought some more VTSAX and VWIAX in my Vanguard account. I'm going to start buying a little more of each of them everytime the Dow drops another 500 over the next couple of weeks. I've had a bunch of cash on the sidelines, so this seems like as good a point as any to put some of it to work to increase my Vanguard quarterly dividends.
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Tom Gresham tweeted that the IWA show (European SHOT show) has been canceled due to virus concerns.
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So far the IRA has dropped about 7% this week. Even the bonds are being hammered. I am still not touching or market-timing the account.
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"So far the IRA has dropped about 7% this week. "
DON'T JUST STAND THERE.... DO SOMETHING! :rofl:
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I've made 1/2 my yearly salary on my put Options since Monday- about 160% gain overall. Today is probably going to be a bloodbath in the markets. I don't think anyone with liquidity wants to stay in the markets over the weekend after last weekend. I lost a total of 5% on my 401k before it got converted to money market. I'll be buying back in in a few months once the coronavirus situation stabilizes and the markets have bottomed out. There are lots of other reasons why the market is tanking besides the coronavirus- the pandemic is just the pin that pricked a massive bubble involving debt and inflated equities prices. The fed could step in and offer more QE, but there isn't much more room as far as lower interest rates go, they would have to start offering negative rates to make much difference.
I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over.
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"I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over."
Not a chance, UNLESS Corona turns into a global killer akin to the Spanish Flu.
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"I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over."
Not a chance, UNLESS Corona turns into a global killer akin to the Spanish Flu.
I ran across yesterday (goes to seek it out... here it is: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091002132346.htm) an analysis (over 10 years old!) that suggests the Spanish Flu was so bad because of aspirin mis-use and overuse.
So, it may not have been so deadly had doctors not been overprescribing the relatively new drug, aspirin.
Bit of warning about not over-reacting and relying on new, unproven drugs.
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Going to read that one later...
I'd always heard that it hit younger, healthier people harder because their immune systems were more robust and as such completely overreacted to some component of the flu.
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First Corona death in the US. In Washington state.
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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First Corona death in the US. In Washington state.
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
It sucks for that person, and their family, but I'm going to predict they had pre-existing, exacerbating conditions. The US healthcare system is pretty good, if expensive, and we do ICU pretty well. In searching for details on that death I ran across this article though:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-28/
Health officials announced a second coronavirus case in California on Friday in which they didn't know how the person was infected. Earlier, the World Health Organization upgraded the global risk from the outbreak to "very high."
The virus has disrupted plans for everything from major sports tournaments and concerts to planned U.S. military exercises. The global death toll is now over 2,800, and the disease has made its first worrying appearance in sub-Saharan Africa.
More than 83,000 cases of the COVID-19 disease have now been confirmed in more than 50 countries. While about 36,000 of those people have recovered, fast-growing outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran — along with the first case confirmed in Nigeria — show the battle to contain the virus is still in its early stages.
In terms of human cost, I fear this is the start of ramping up. I think this thing could roll through Africa (and parts of Latin America and Central Asia) with death rates like the Iranians are seeing. Lots of folks already not that healthy, and not much for modern hospitals.
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In terms of human cost, I fear this is the start of ramping up. I think this thing could roll through Africa (and parts of Latin America and Central Asia) with death rates like the Iranians are seeing. Lots of folks already not that healthy, and not much for modern hospitals.
India could be like something out of a TEOTW movie
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It sucks for that person, and their family, but I'm going to predict they had pre-existing, exacerbating conditions. The US healthcare system is pretty good, if expensive, and we do ICU pretty well. In searching for details on that death I ran across this article though:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-28/
In terms of human cost, I fear this is the start of ramping up. I think this thing could roll through Africa (and parts of Latin America and Central Asia) with death rates like the Iranians are seeing. Lots of folks already not that healthy, and not much for modern hospitals.
Yeeeup, 65 year old woman with pre existing respiratory problems .
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First Corona death in the US. In Washington state.
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
Any numbers for the plain old flu for today?
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Any numbers for the plain old flu for today?
Now, now. You can't cause a Trump Virus panic that benefits the Democrats with the plain old flu. You should know better than that.
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Any numbers for the plain old flu for today?
Unfair comparison at this point. Kung-flu isn’t widespread yet. Influenza is.
The concerns for the Kung-flu should be the apparent high hospitalization rate compared to the regular flu.
Unless we can snuff this one out, we won’t know exactly how deadly it is overall until it runs through a bunch of countries.
Virologists worry that unchecked it could infect anywhere from 30-70% of the world pop.
2.3% of 30% of 7 billion+ people is around half a million.
The flu has a less than 1% mortality rate normally, sometimes as high as 2%.
So it could just be a really bad flu (after two bad flu years back to back), or it could run up to the high side of the infection estimated and kill millions.
It’s a giant question mark on how it will actually play out. Good containment measures can slow this down to a non event. Head in sand calling it a “hoax” letting infected people walk around concerts and schools? Anyone’s guess.
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As others have noted, the kill rate may be artificially inflated because many known people with the infection are experiencing symptoms akin to a mild cold. If you get a minor cold you don’t usually go to the doctor, so I bet infection numbers are way underreported. The ones we find out about are either because of enhanced testing (I.e. on the cruise ships) or because of serious illness driving people to medical care.
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Here’s some light reading on why this thing is a big *expletive deleted*ing deal
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
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Locking this thread, and the COVID19 extent thread. See this thread http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=61872.msg1245097#new to continue the conversation on all things Corona except the beer.