Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: just Warren on August 24, 2020, 12:56:01 AM
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I already think he's going to win in a landslide and given what people are seeing from the left and the fact that blacks are not happy with the "defund the police" movement and therefore could vote for Trump despite not liking much else about him could swing the vote sufficient for Trump to win states that would usually be considered safely blue.
So I'm thinking he has at least a 50/50 chance of a sweep.
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Pretty much zero
If he won either California or NY I would be in total shock.
The rest of the west coast, Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts mostly in shock.
A 50 state sweep would glorious though
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Near zero.
Our country hasn't been this ideologically and politically divided in a long time. I believe that there are many, many people who are very upset with the president and will vote for change.
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Absolutely zero chance of a fifty state sweep. In fact, I believe there is a very good chance Trump will lose.
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Zero.
Like Rocketman, I think Trump has a real chance at losing, but the signal to noise ratio in polls and media makes it hard to accurately guess either way.
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Zero.
No way does he carry California, New York, Maryland, or Hawaii.
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Agreed. Cali, NY, and a few other Dem states will not go Trump. I believe this could end up like 2016, with Trump winning the electoral college, but losing the popular vote. I expect to hear cries to end the electoral college, and even a few dump congress critters to introduce bills to do so (only to learn after the fact that it doesn't work that way). I believe that there will be a real media push to end the college, along the lines of "make your vote actually count". Whether it gets enough support to move forward, I doubt it.
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Even with the presupposition that we actually have elections with accurate vote counts I say no chance.
Illinois doesn't have accurate vote counts. Chicago always has tailored numbers to make sure the vote supports the left.
I suspect Cali, NY and some other states are the same, the votes have been rigged and manipulated for decades.
The Trump Team is fighting a well oiled, well funded machine that just about had seized permanent control.
Here in northern Illinois he is hated by probably half the people, a malicious, vitriolic hatred. Even the Trump supporters don't support Trump per se but support some of his policies and are just scared to death of the looney leftists enough to vote for Orange Man Bad. Some of the most pro Trump comments I've heard have been from minority folks oddly enough. Of course they are immune to the withering attacks on whiteness and white privilege so they are free to speak their mind.
I'm in the 50/50 camp about Trump being able to win again.
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Absolutely freaking zero
I'm not even convinced at this point he will win.
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Zero. I would say the same if someone asked the chances of a Dem 50 state win. Though sadly, I think there are fewer states that would block a dem sweep than states that would block an R sweep.
California alone, will likely never again be an R win. Especially with the illegal voting.
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Do you know why the riots continue in Portland and similar cities? Because the voters in those areas support wholeheartedly.
Zero chance of carrying 50 states. If the Dems are able to pull off their bullshit about mail in voting, then he will definitely lose too.
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And if he does win expect the media/libs/dems/protesters to turn the crazy dial way pass 11
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The odds of a 50 state sweep? less than zero.
I also don't think a Trump win is a sure bet. The election fraud we are going to see this year will make even the worst 3rd world banana republic sham election look downright saintly. I suspect we will not know the winner for weeks or months after the election and it will likely end up in the SCOTUS for resolution.
Either way it turns out this great experiment of the American Republic will be finished. If Trump wins the temper tantrum from the left will make the current social unrest look like a prayer circle. If the left take control the celebratory riots will not look all that different and the implementation of the democrat agenda will destroy what is left of this country.
Either way, keep your head on a swivel and keep your powder dry.
[ar15]
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How can he possibly win? He's already lost the massive white nationalist voting block.
I plan to vote for Biden and a straight democratic ticket. It’s not based on “accelerationism” or anything like that; the liberals are clearly more competent people.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/24/the-perfect-match-richard-spencer-yes-that-guy-says-hes-team-biden-and-democrats-all-the-way-now-they-can-have-him/
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I thought I heard Washington and Oregon have gone to all mail-in voting. Do you think that vote will swing to Trump?
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I thought I heard Washington and Oregon have gone to all mail-in voting. Do you think that vote will swing to Trump?
Basically the whole West Coast plus Hawaii are lost, at least for the foreseeable future. The more I read, the more it seems OR and WA are actually going harder left than CA, despite their very conservative interiors.
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As far as sweeping Democrat states? I remember the shear number of votes that were counted in LA county and New York City during the 2016 election. I think there will be something similar this time. It would take a great deal of shift in voting patterns to change the state-wide vote in those cities.
Also, I think there are liberals and minorities who are upset with the Democrats embracing the riots, but I have no idea how many.
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Basically the whole West Coast plus Hawaii are lost, at least for the foreseeable future. The more I read, the more it seems OR and WA are actually going harder left than CA, despite their very conservative interiors.
Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds? A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods. The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.
It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid. Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.
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I think Trump will be reelected, but THERE IS NO WAY FOR HIM TO GO TO A SWEEPING VICTORY A LA REAGAN IN 1984. It's also possible there will be a repeat of 2016 where the popular vote goes to Biden but Trump gets the electoral college majority.
It's going to be close however it goes down.
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Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds? A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods. The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.
It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid. Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.
Maybe some but I fear most have been conditioned by years of school and the media to think that there is only one solution to any problem and that is liberalism and if that fails more liberalism. Anything else would be crazy.
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The only two electoral college sweeps were George Washington's two terms.
James Monroe got 231 out of 232 in 1820; supposedly the one elector who dissented did so to preserve George Washington's unanimous election.
The closest to a sweep in my lifetime was in 1984 when Ronald Reagan took 523 of 531.
The 13 electoral votes Mondale got were in his home state of Minnesota, which he won by 0.18% of the total vote, and Washington, DC, where Mondale got almost 86% of the vote. Since then, it has NOT gotten any better for Republicans in DC.
If the Gipper couldn't pull off a sweep in 1984 against Mondale... well, you do the math.
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More than a few people I know think that no matter what happens, this election is going to be going to the courts.
It's funny as hell that there's a cartoon out right now where Trump is shown as a football coach outlining his strategy on a chalboard for his GOP team; one word on the board -- CHEAT.
Morons are passing that around whining like mad, thinking that the Democratic party somehow is pure as driven snow. The only reason the Dems started screeching about Republican "cheating" is because the Republicans finally started using some of the same tactics that the Dems have used for decades.
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. . . The election fraud we are going to see this year will make even the worst 3rd world banana republic sham election look downright saintly . . .
QFT. =(
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Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds? A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods. The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.
It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid. Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.
I can't speak to OR and WA, but after 58 years as a Californian, any changing of minds there will be to such a small degree that it won't matter. The entire coast there is brainwashed. There might be CA liberals buying guns for the first time right now because they are afraid of losing police, but they will still hate the police, whether they are antifa terrorists or six figure dual income Prius drivers who need to say the right things at the wine and cheese parties.
I have only to read the old hometown newspaper there to see how absolutely closed-minded they are. If their houses are burnded down by antifa, it will still be because of Trump.
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I keep watching clips from "Rising," w/ Sagaar Enjetti and Krystal Ball (sp?), and they keep pushing the idea that progressives and leftists have been pushed out of the Dem party. Wall Street-friendly "Neo-Liberals" have taken over. They think Biden and Harris are centrists.
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I can't speak to OR and WA, but after 58 years as a Californian, any changing of minds there will be to such a small degree that it won't matter. The entire coast there is brainwashed. There might be CA liberals buying guns for the first time right now because they are afraid of losing police, but they will still hate the police, whether they are antifa terrorists or six figure dual income Prius drivers who need to say the right things at the wine and cheese parties.
I have only to read the old hometown newspaper there to see how absolutely closed-minded they are. If their houses are burnded down by antifa, it will still be because of Trump.
IMO, you have to be careful about going by the newspapers. If all you read was the big city newspapers in Texas, you would think it was solidly Democrat.
That said, it doesn't take a great swing. I think I heard that even in recent elections, the difference between D and R was only about 6%.
I am not predicting anything but a solid win by Trump. I think he will do better than 2016.
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I am curious what Trump and his team are trying to do as far as election fraud goes. You have to know they are considering it and have been figuring ways to counter it for a while now. Just curious. I guess we will see how this all plays out in a few months.
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There is still enough time before the election for a LOT to change. How Covid19\flu season progress along with school openings (or not) will be a big factor. There is potential for some REALLY good looking economic numbers - not that we'll regain all the lost ground but as a comparison to the spring & summer they could look amazing. All that being said, where we're at right now I think it's a very close race and I would expect the results to be pretty close to 2016. There has been movement since 2016 but I'm not sure the net change has been very big because a lot of it has no effect or is cancelled out by a similar change on the other side.
Based off people that I know (admittedly a small sample size)
- Reluctant Trump supporters have become more enthusiastic.
- Reluctant Hillary supporters have become more anti-Trump.
- No one who voted 3rd party is planning on doing so again.
- Most people who didn't vote, do plan to vote now (although I'm skeptical most will) and Biden has a slight lead there.
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IMO, you have to be careful about going by the newspapers. If all you read was the big city newspapers in Texas, you would think it was solidly Democrat.
This is true, but I was exposed to these people most of my life, so I'm pretty confident of the trend. Plus the numbers are just overwhelmingly in favor of the left. People like me, if they are able, have moved versus trying to fight. When I was down there last week I learned of four families I knew well before I moved that said Newsom was the last straw, and off they all went, three of them to Texas.
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Based off people that I know (admittedly a small sample size)
- Reluctant Trump supporters have become more enthusiastic.
- Reluctant Hillary supporters have become more anti-Trump.
- No one who voted 3rd party is planning on doing so again.
- Most people who didn't vote, do plan to vote now (although I'm skeptical most will) and Biden has a slight lead there.
I am. I don't support either of those philandering, immoral, aholes and continue to believe that the party line voters who year in and year out show up and pull "red/blue no matter who" are how we got into this mess. If you never incentiveize the party offering a good candidate, they never will. YMMV.
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Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds? A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods. The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.
It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid. Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.
I think the past six months have changed the scene, but not the way you seem to think. Early in 2020 I was of the opinion that a Trump win was a lock. Then along came COVID-19, the federal government couldn't agree on a consistent, coordinated response or set of response parameters, the economy tanked, the national debt skyrocketed, ...
At this point I'm not even certain that Trump can win. I hope he does, because I fear a Biden-Harris administration, but it's very much not a lock any more. It's a horse race.
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I already think he's going to win in a landslide and given what people are seeing from the left and the fact that blacks are not happy with the "defund the police" movement and therefore could vote for Trump despite not liking much else about him could swing the vote sufficient for Trump to win states that would usually be considered safely blue.
So I'm thinking he has at least a 50/50 chance of a sweep.
Ain't happening.
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I am. I don't support either of those philandering, immoral, aholes and continue to believe that the party line voters who year in and year out show up and pull "red/blue no matter who" are how we got into this mess. If you never incentiveize the party offering a good candidate, they never will. YMMV.
Finding a candidate that isn't immoral and an a-hole will be a challenge.
You don't become President of the USA by being a nice guy who doesn't bend/break the rules.
I remember when Reagan being a divorcee was scandalous for a Republican nominee.
Finding a nominee who isn't divorced or hasn't had an affair may be a challenge.
Democracies seem to reward those who are high in the Dark Triad traits as they are the ones who really really want to win and do what it takes to make sure it happens.
Maybe at one time the "deep state" reigned in those personalities but in my observation the deep state is also run by those with dark triad traits.
The main thing Trump has going for him is he doesn't seem to hate heritage Americans (or legal immigrants either for that matter).
The left has outed itself as actually hating America, it's founders, nearly half of the population, it's history and mythos.
Good luck on your unicorn hunt.
For me it is either Trump or I'll just sit it out. I'm still sussing out how much of his shtick is genuine and how much is calculated.
I don't regret my vote for him one bit though. He pulled back the curtain for those who have the balls to actually look at the behind the scenes machinations.
Just look at all the Republican cockroaches scurrying over to vote for Hillary or Biden.
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I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.
Biden?
He and Harris offer nothing.
In my town there I've still only seen one yard sign and one bumper sticker for Biden. Even at houses that have signs for other local D candidates there's no Biden signs. There is no enthusiasm for Biden.
The ratings for the DNC were dismal, people don't show up for his rallies. And picking Harris seems to have weakened him.
So unless D voter fraud is massive. To an extent they've not tried before there's no way Biden can win.
Of course Trump doesn't need to sweep to win but here's why I think he has a chance of it. Maybe even a good chance.
Trump has pulled to within the margin-of-error in the polling and that puts him ahead of where he was against Clinton.
There are a lot of new gun owners who are not going to vote for the candidate who is promising to take away their guns.
There are a lot on the left who are horrified at the riots and terrorism in their cities and want it stopped and see that the Ds in charge cannot or will not, and will not even ask for help. And they may, if they are aware enough, realize that it would only get worse under a Biden administration. So the only way to ensure it doesn't is to put their revulsion aside and vote for Trump.
As I mentioned, normal every-day, working-class black folks are getting the rawest deal out of these riots, it's their neighborhoods and businesses getting burned down. In overwhelming numbers they do not want the police defunded or abolished which is what the Ds at all levels stand for now. So there's another group to vote Trump.
Then there are the left/liberals of the #walkaway movement who have realized that their supposed comrades have been lying to them about Trump for the last four years.
I don't know how many of these folks there are but for every one that votes Trump makes it a two-vote swing towards him.
And lastly there are those on the R/conservative side who may not like Trump, may not have voted for him in 16 but will this time because the alternative is just so damn bad.
If they've been paying attention they will realize that for as bad as he can come off Trump has been unjustly treated by the opposition and the media. From the Russia hoax, to the Ukraine impeachment, to being blamed for making C-19 worse and all the little things that have been lied about.
They may dislike Trump but they hate the media/opposition and what is the best way to hurt them? Vote for Trump.
It might just be enough of a swing for Trump to carry states that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.
And it might be enough to flip the House as well.
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I'm not convinced that the left will leave the fate of the country to the vagueries of voters.
The fraud machine is geared up and at full throttle. The afterburners are tuned up and in hot standby.
The left has shown they have no compunction against violent insurgency and it's not a long stretch to expect ever more violence leading up to the election.
Should Trump actually manage a win, what we've seen so far will be a walk in the park. People are going to die on both sides.
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I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.
Biden?
He and Harris offer nothing.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the average American voter, (D) or (R). Their votes are not based on rational analysis of the issues because that requires too much effort on their part. They will pull the party lever because it's easier.
So unless D voter fraud is massive. To an extent they've not tried before there's no way Biden can win.
The DNC will pull out all the stops on voter fraud this election, far surpassing what they did in 2016. They realize the mistake they made in believing their own polls then, and won't do that again in 2020.
Trump has pulled to within the margin-of-error in the polling and that puts him ahead of where he was against Clinton.
See the above on voter fraud. Trump lost the popular vote by five million votes in 2016, most of those probably due to fraud. The margin will be much larger in 2020.
There are a lot of new gun owners who are not going to vote for the candidate who is promising to take away their guns.
This won't matter a whit. Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember.
There are a lot on the left who are horrified at the riots and terrorism in their cities and want it stopped and see that the Ds in charge cannot or will not, and will not even ask for help. And they may, if they are aware enough, realize that it would only get worse under a Biden administration. So the only way to ensure it doesn't is to put their revulsion aside and vote for Trump.
There are many more on the left that are fully behind the "protests", far more than those that are "horrified", IMO. They are happily consuming the leftist MSM propaganda about the protests being mostly peaceful.
As I mentioned, normal every-day, working-class black folks are getting the rawest deal out of these riots, it's their neighborhoods and businesses getting burned down. In overwhelming numbers they do not want the police defunded or abolished which is what the Ds at all levels stand for now. So there's another group to vote Trump.
His support among black voters will be higher than 2016, but not by enough to matter, IMO.
Then there are the left/liberals of the #walkaway movement who have realized that their supposed comrades have been lying to them about Trump for the last four years.
I don't know how many of these folks there are but for every one that votes Trump makes it a two-vote swing towards him.
See above concerning black voter support. Most of these folks are outliers, there are not enough to matter.
And lastly there are those on the R/conservative side who may not like Trump, may not have voted for him in 16 but will this time because the alternative is just so damn bad.
If they've been paying attention they will realize that for as bad as he can come off Trump has been unjustly treated by the opposition and the media. From the Russia hoax, to the Ukraine impeachment, to being blamed for making C-19 worse and all the little things that have been lied about.
They may dislike Trump but they hate the media/opposition and what is the best way to hurt them? Vote for Trump.
It might just be enough of a swing for Trump to carry states that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.
And it might be enough to flip the House as well.
There were a lot of folks making this same prediction for the mid-terms in 2018. We saw how well that turned out.
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" Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember."
Most pundits, both left and right, give much of the credit for George Bush taking both West Virginia (first time a Republican had done so since 1984) AND Al Gore's home state of Tennessee (first time a candidate lost his home state since 1972) with backlash to the huge Democratic gun control push under Clinton, especially Gore's support of the "assault weapons ban."
Had Gore won Tennessee, Florida and all of its hanging chads would have been a moot point.
Democrats certain took that to heart as they downplayed gun control from the party platform for almost a dozen years before it started coming back hard.
Biden was also a BIG supporter of GCA 1994; he can be made vulnerable on that.
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I'm not even sure Trump will win, I think the electoral votes sre going to be a single digit difference.
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I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.
Biden?
He and Harris offer nothing.
In my town there I've still only seen one yard sign and one bumper sticker for Biden. Even at houses that have signs for other local D candidates there's no Biden signs. There is no enthusiasm for Biden.
I don't know where you live. I'm in the northeast, which means (virtually by definition) I'm in a blue town in a blue state. You've only seen one Biden yard sign? I finally saw one Trump sign -- about a week ago. I can't discuss politics with people I know because, with basically four exceptions (all in the same family), everyone I know is rabidly anti-Trump and pro whoever the Democrats put up.
And that's the bottom line. They won't be voting for Biden -- they'll be voting for the Democratic ticket. They've drunk the Kool-Aid, and they can't be reasoned with.
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I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.
Biden?
It's not Trump vs Biden
It's Trump vs anyone who's not that racist bigoted earth hating dictator Trump guy the media keeps telling us about.
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If I were on Trump's campaign, he'd be using this as a yard sign/t-shirt/whatever:
END FASCISM
FIGHT RACISM
VOTE TRUMP
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I'm practically on the border of Cook County (home of Chicago) in Dupage County.
Dupage was one of those stalwart Republican counties holding the line in a blue state.
My Republican congress-critter is a never Trumper and democratic socialist in policy.
Trump supporters keep their heads down and mouths shut around here.
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Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds? A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods. The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.
It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid. Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.
Often the R alternative is a throwaway candidate that receives little or no support from the Republican party. This is because the Republican leadership knows their candidates have no chance of winning in most solid blue left coast districts.
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How can he possibly win? He's already lost the massive white nationalist voting block.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/24/the-perfect-match-richard-spencer-yes-that-guy-says-hes-team-biden-and-democrats-all-the-way-now-they-can-have-him/
I cannot believe anyone ever fell for his act.
Years ago I ran across him online and my first thought was "this guys a Fed".
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Often the R alternative is a throwaway candidate that receives little or no support from the Republican party. This is because the Republican leadership knows their candidates have no chance of winning in most solid blue left coast districts.
I characterize the Republican candidate for Washington governor as such. The Repubs could not find anyone with a decent chance willing to run, since it is pretty much a done deal that Governor Inslee will be re-elected. Enter Loren Culp, who runs a single-person police force in a 1200 person town in the remote forests of North Central Washington. Since Washington state elections are generally decided by Seattle and King County, Mr. Culp will be back on the beat soon enough.
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There are people in this area who have the fantasy that Pelosi and Omar will be unseated and are sharing posts about their token Republican challengers.
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I'm not convinced that the left will leave the fate of the country to the vagueries of voters.
The fraud machine is geared up and at full throttle. The afterburners are tuned up and in hot standby.
The left has shown they have no compunction against violent insurgency and it's not a long stretch to expect ever more violence leading up to the election.
Should Trump actually manage a win, what we've seen so far will be a walk in the park. People are going to die on both sides.
I could easily see Antifa and BLM thugs wreaking havoc at polling places.
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[tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil]
BREAKING late Sunday – We’ve just learned that Antifa terrorist groups in Austin, Texas and Portland, Oregon have received a large cache of weapons that are being handed to them in preparation for a coordinated, multi-city uprising. Dubbed the “TET Offensive” by Dave Hodges (The Commonsense Show), this planned multi-city attack looks likely to take place before the coming election, as anti-American forces now realize Joe Biden cannot win. So their new goal is to unleash so much chaos across America that elections must be suspended, allowing the Marxist media to roll out its “Trump is a dictator” narrative.
This new delivery of weapons to Antifa forces on or around August 9th has been confirmed by reliable sources. It is consistent with previous announcements by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) describing government seizures of full-auto weapons parts and illegal suppressors that were intercepted during shipment from communist China to several U.S. cities, including Detroit MI, Louisville KY, and Melbourne FL.
Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/
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I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.
That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.
No one is feeling the Bidenergy.
Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?
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" Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember."
Most pundits, both left and right, give much of the credit for George Bush taking both West Virginia (first time a Republican had done so since 1984) AND Al Gore's home state of Tennessee (first time a candidate lost his home state since 1972) with backlash to the huge Democratic gun control push under Clinton, especially Gore's support of the "assault weapons ban."
Had Gore won Tennessee, Florida and all of its hanging chads would have been a moot point.
Democrats certain took that to heart as they downplayed gun control from the party platform for almost a dozen years before it started coming back hard.
Biden was also a BIG supporter of GCA 1994; he can be made vulnerable on that.
Done correctly guns could make Virginia go red this year. It is not as blue as people want us to think and gun owners are a lot more fired up than they were a few years ago thanks to our blackface governor. A decent senate candidate also hopefully driving turnout.
In other news I believe that Tony Evers just handed Trump Wisconsin with his spineless pronouncements on Kenosha.
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Done correctly guns could make Virginia go red this year. It is not as blue as people want us to think and gun owners are a lot more fired up than they were a few years ago thanks to our blackface governor. A decent senate candidate also hopefully driving turnout.
I could see that in VA given how crazy the gov there went on the anti-gun stuff. Other than the fact that I hadn't thought about it since it happened until you brought it up here. That's often the problem - if it doesn't get press right before the election, people forget.
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I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.
That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.
No one is feeling the Bidenergy.
Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?
Normally I would say it says a lot about the election, but this year is so volatile. It is another reason Trump should win easily all things being equal (which they really are not).
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There's a better chance the 6.5 foot asteroid headed here the day before election day will kill all life on this planet.
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I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.
That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.
No one is feeling the Bidenergy.
Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?
Three times. Romney also got no bump.
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There's a better chance the 6.5 foot asteroid headed here the day before election day will kill all life on this planet.
Saw something where some Hollywood folks were freaking out about the planet destroying 6.5ft "asteroid". :facepalm:
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[tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil]
Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/
Let’s get this party swinging like Saddam Hussein.
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[tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil] [tinfoil]
Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/
While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste. It makes me question the veracity of the claims.
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While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste. It makes me question the veracity of the claims.
Why I gave it a 5 out of 5 tin-foil hat rating.
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(https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/118463086_4309012269128193_4964117211119584271_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Sb4V_q8tKhcAX9-NTI2&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=ade5d06f36cb27006afbb42af623533b&oe=5F6B93E0)
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While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste. It makes me question the veracity of the claims.
Agreed.
And really, none of this feels that well organized. Seems like there were protests/riots that came about fairly organically, and have been allowed to proceed in these places and grow by the actions of the local governments that are unwilling to take the necessary steps to restore order.
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Why I gave it a 5 out of 5 tin-foil hat rating.
I completely missed that. Shows how observant I am this morning.
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I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.
He didn't really need a bump if we're looking at historical comparisons.
Ahead of the Democratic convention, Biden had the largest pre-convention lead in two decades
Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead.
Care to share?
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If polls were elections we would have been saying President Hillary Clinton for the pass 3.5 years
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Why would anyone need to smuggle in weapons from China?
According to the Dems, anyone who wants one needs only to walk down the street the local dealer in child deaths and walk out 3 seconds later fully semi-automatic assault gun.... for free... along with an endless supply of cop killer bullets (although I doubt that they're really all that upset about the cop killer bullets part these days).
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Why would anyone need to smuggle in weapons from China?
According to the Dems, anyone who wants one needs only to walk down the street the local dealer in child deaths and walk out 3 seconds later fully semi-automatic assault gun.... for free... along with an endless supply of cop killer bullets (although I doubt that they're really all that upset about the cop killer bullets part these days).
:laugh: I'm old enough to remember when Democrats appealed to their voters with fear-mongering about cops being killed by criminals, and not the other way around.
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:laugh: I'm old enough to remember when Democrats appealed to their voters with fear-mongering about cops being killed by criminals, and not the other way around.
They figured out that cops can't be counted on to automatically vote straight democrat so they threw them under the bus
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He didn't really need a bump if we're looking at historical comparisons.Care to share?
Here's an article quoting Frank Luntz on the MoE:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/08/24/pollster-frank-luntz-says-recent-trends-have-been-in-trumps-favor/
The polls showing Trump leading I heard about from a Timcast video but he didn't provide a link. I find the guy credible though, so I'm assuming he is telling the truth here.
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Definitely a good sign or maybe most potential DNC viewers were too busy running around in the streets
RNC viewership was 6X higher on CSPAN last night compared to the start of the DNC
I guess Americans don’t really want to be told how terrible and racist their country is by a bunch of coastal elites and B-list celebrities on a poorly produced Zoom call
🤔
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 25, 2020
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufkin/2020/08/24/more-dnc-woes-new-poll-shows-major-drop-in-democratic-party-affiliation-n2574917
Dems losing people while Reps gaining. How much of a shift would it take to first guarantee a Trump win, second for it to be a landslide, and third, for it to be a sweep?
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"How much of a shift would it take to first guarantee a Trump win, second for it to be a landslide, and third, for it to be a sweep?"
Well, as I pointed out below, DC is the biggest reason why there will never be a Republican electoral college sweep.
In 2016, 90.86 percent of all DC voters picked Hillary. In none of the 8 wards did she get less than 80% votes cast, in 5 of them she got over 90% of the votes cast.
I mean hell, given the political situation in the country in 1984 and and Mondale still got over 85% of votes cast in DC.
I'm not sure, but I don't think that a Republican presidential candidate has ever won a single DC ward since DC residents started voting in presidential elections in 1964.
Ah, here we go...
From the Wikipedia entry on DC results in the 1980 presidential election...
"Carter's 74.9% of the vote represents the lowest vote won by a Democrat in the District of Columbia."
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It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention. I hope this is an indicator that Trump will pull in enough electoral votes that the dems will look crazy when they say he stole the election.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/
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It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention. I hope this is an indicator that Trump will pull in enough electoral votes that the dems will look crazy when they say he stole the election.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/
Just wake up? :P
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It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention.
Note that it's 6x C-Span viewers, not overall, and C-span is a relatively small potato in the big picture.
Across the three broadcast networks, the RNC night 1 drew around 4.9 million total viewers, a 14% drop from last Monday’s DNC first night which drew 5.7 million.
Looking at the networks individually, ABC scored the largest total viewership (as it did for the DNC), drawing 1.8 million viewers. NBC was right behind with 1.7 million, followed by CBS with 1.4 million.
As was the case with the DNC last week, it appears that the RNC is on course for much smaller numbers than the previous edition from four years ago. For comparison, the first night of the 2016 RNC delivered 10.1 million viewers in the preliminary broadcast ratings, more than twice the tally from this time around.
The fuller ratings picture for the RNC night 1 will become clearer later in the day when the cable news numbers will also be factored in.
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Note that it's 6x C-Span viewers, not overall, and C-span is a relatively small potato in the big picture.
We will see what the whole picture looks like. You might as well ask how many Fox News viewers watched the DNC convention.
I didn't watch the DNC or the RNC last night. I already know how I will vote. I think I will try to tune in for the President, or maybe watch in after the fact. We have a hurricane coming into the area.
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https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/25/one-in-five-black-male-college-students-support-trump-in-new-poll/
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Well, here you go:
"Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances," Clinton said. "Because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually, I do believe he will win, if we don't give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-should-not-concede-on-election-night
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Well, here you go:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-should-not-concede-on-election-night
In other words they'll keep finding ballots in the back of a station wagon until they have enough
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Trump is up 10 points with independents.
https://saraacarter.com/cbs-trump-up-10-points-among-independents/
Found something that shows some polling put Trump ahead of Biden in battleground states. It's from a month ago.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/huge-polls-battleground-states-show-president-trump-crushing-sleepy-joe-biden/
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And from the site of the second link is an article covering the same thing but at the bottom the author makes a claim that, in at least, CBS's poll Dems are over-sampled and Reps and Inds are under-sampled and that means Trump is up, overall, by 10 over Biden.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/08/uh-oh-great-news-trump-campaign-trump-leads-biden-10-points-among-independents/
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Biden's promise might not sit well with wealthier dems, and I recall several members here predicting the attack on 401Ks.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/08/25/joe-biden-promises-to-take-away-401k-style-retirement-savings-whats-that-mean/#78353b84eb08
I read this on my phone. If you have an adblocker on your computer, you'll need to do a workaround to read it.
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I don't care about Trump winning in a landslide nearly as much as I care about Republicans keeping the Senate and retaking the House.
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Yes those things are more important but I so much want to see the left emotionally crushed.
I want to see their figurative hearts ripped out and stomped on.
And the bigger the win the more pain they will feel.
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Yes those things are more important but I so much want to see the left emotionally crushed.
I want to see their figurative hearts ripped out and stomped on.
And the bigger the win the more pain they will feel.
I want to see them crushed, driven before me and to hear the lamentations of their she-men.
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What Warren and Boomhauer said X eleventy.
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Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota. (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512976-trump-and-biden-tied-in-minnesota-poll)
Minnesota has not voted for an R presidential candidate since 1972.
Doesn't mean they will this time, but a polling tie in such a state is very interesting.
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In other words they'll keep finding ballots in the back of a station wagon until they have enough
Truer words were never spoken.
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Personally, I think Trump is a complete idiot and, personality wise, completely unsuited to be President. I wasn't for him the first time around, and I blame his shenanigans in large part for the Republicans losing the House in the by election.
But, the LAST thing I want to see is a Democrat in the White House, to the point where I'll once again hold my nose and vote for Trump.
I really only care about 2 things...
Trump holding the presidency, and the Republicans holding the Senate, because that means one thing... Court appointments.
And the one thing Trump has done right, in my opinion, is his court appointments.
His appointments have swung the balance in the 9th circuit back to Constitutional sanity.
Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are both Constitutionalists (FAR more than that moron John Roberts), and if Trump wins the White House again there's a good chance that Trump will get at least one, possibly two, more court appointments, and that would help seal up a Constitutional Supreme Court for the rest of my life.
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Hear, hear!
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Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota. (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512976-trump-and-biden-tied-in-minnesota-poll)
Minnesota has not voted for an R presidential candidate since 1972.
Doesn't mean they will this time, but a polling tie in such a state is very interesting.
Minnesota, home of the Station Wagon of Endless Democrat Ballots
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Personally, I think Trump is a complete idiot and, personality wise, completely unsuited to be President. I wasn't for him the first time around, and I blame his shenanigans in large part for the Republicans losing the House in the by election.
But, the LAST thing I want to see is a Democrat in the White House, to the point where I'll once again hold my nose and vote for Trump.
I really only care about 2 things...
Trump holding the presidency, and the Republicans holding the Senate, because that means one thing... Court appointments.
And the one thing Trump has done right, in my opinion, is his court appointments.
His appointments have swung the balance in the 9th circuit back to Constitutional sanity.
Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are both Constitutionalists (FAR more than that moron John Roberts), and if Trump wins the White House again there's a good chance that Trump will get at least one, possibly two, more court appointments, and that would help seal up a Constitutional Supreme Court for the rest of my life.
I agree on the goals.
I think the mid-terms had a lot to do with all the Russia-gate conspiracy and the fact that far too many people believed it. And Congressional Republicans were keeping their distance from Trump. They didn't pass any useful legislation until the tax cut and let Senate Democrats hold their spending bills hostage. The Republican House could have inserted all sorts of useful things into the spending bills, but never did.
As far as goals, it would be nice if Republicans could gain enough in the Senate to get 60 votes. I won't hold my breath waiting for it.
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Yes those things are more important but I so much want to see the left emotionally crushed.
I want to see their figurative hearts ripped out and stomped on.
And the bigger the win the more pain they will feel.
The biggest thing I want to see is that riots and violence are a BIG LOSER at the ballot box. If Democrats win, I fear it will just promote the idea that chaos and rioting is the way to push around the electorate and we will see that tactic repeated over and over again in the future. If it loses big enough, they won't repeat it for a long while.
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The biggest thing I want to see is that riots and violence are a BIG LOSER at the ballot box. If Democrats win, I fear it will just promote the idea that chaos and rioting is the way to push around the electorate and we will see that tactic repeated over and over again in the future. If it loses big enough, they won't repeat it for a long while.
Last time we had large violent nationwide riots was 1968 which was also an election year with Johnson as President. The election was Humphrey vs Nixon. Nixon won that one. The period before that 1965-67 wasn't quiet either, many consider the 1967 Detroit riot the largest in US history.
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Personally, I think Trump is a complete idiot and, personality wise, completely unsuited to be President. I wasn't for him the first time around, and I blame his shenanigans in large part for the Republicans losing the House in the by election.
But, the LAST thing I want to see is a Democrat in the White House, to the point where I'll once again hold my nose and vote for Trump.
I really only care about 2 things...
Trump holding the presidency, and the Republicans holding the Senate, because that means one thing... Court appointments.
And the one thing Trump has done right, in my opinion, is his court appointments.
His appointments have swung the balance in the 9th circuit back to Constitutional sanity.
Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are both Constitutionalists (FAR more than that moron John Roberts), and if Trump wins the White House again there's a good chance that Trump will get at least one, possibly two, more court appointments, and that would help seal up a Constitutional Supreme Court for the rest of my life.
On the personality part I tell people DJT is an idiot and they get all hopeful. But then I tell them he is my idiot. I think he has done far more than judicial appointments. Top of my list is recasting our relationship with other countries(if an East German is pissed, I approve), slowing the velocity of executive branch power grab, and signaling a business friendly environment that helps us all. The list goes on, a lot of good got done.
Back on the personality I go back to my poker playing analogy. I have played poker against the caricature that trump presents. It is a common figure at the table. The guy is loud, dressed extravagantly, criticizes everyone’s play, makes huge splashy bets from anywhere, grabs the waitress’ ass, etc. Beats you or others with things he had no business playing. You seeth, you plot revenge he lives in your head. And at the end of the night you look and he has near all the money.
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I think the biggest differences between the 60s protests and the current one(s) is that most of the current protests are over largely self induced injustices and we also have one of the major parties, the one that just so happens to be largely responsible for those self induced injustices, openly green lighting much of it for political gain.
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The biggest thing I want to see is that riots and violence are a BIG LOSER at the ballot box. If Democrats win, I fear it will just promote the idea that chaos and rioting is the way to push around the electorate and we will see that tactic repeated over and over again in the future. If it loses big enough, they won't repeat it for a long while.
This.
Also, if Trump deserves some blame for losing the House, the rest of the party deserves more. From the leadership on down, they should have rallied around the party's leader, and pushed through a free-market healthcare reform bill, wall funding, and some kind of major reform of gun laws. And Sessions should never have recused.
Comey should have been gone from day one, but that was Trump's screw-up.
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"Also, if Trump deserves some blame for losing the House, the rest of the party deserves more. From the leadership on down, they should have rallied around the party's leader, and pushed through a free-market healthcare reform bill, wall funding, and some kind of major reform of gun laws. And Sessions should never have recused. "
Oh, I'm not in the least disputing that, but as Harry Truman said, the buck stops here.
He's the putative leader of the Republican party, and heavy is the crown on the head that wears it.
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This.
Also, if Trump deserves some blame for losing the House, the rest of the party deserves more. From the leadership on down, they should have rallied around the party's leader, and pushed through a free-market healthcare reform bill, wall funding, and some kind of major reform of gun laws. And Sessions should never have recused.
Comey should have been gone from day one, but that was Trump's screw-up.
Never underestimate the republican party's ability to shoot itself in the foot mere inches from the finish line.
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"Also, if Trump deserves some blame for losing the House, the rest of the party deserves more. From the leadership on down, they should have rallied around the party's leader, and pushed through a free-market healthcare reform bill, wall funding, and some kind of major reform of gun laws. And Sessions should never have recused. "
Oh, I'm not in the least disputing that, but as Harry Truman said, the buck stops here.
He's the putative leader of the Republican party, and heavy is the crown on the head that wears it.
Yeah but he inherited most of the party clowns
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"Also, if Trump deserves some blame for losing the House, the rest of the party deserves more. From the leadership on down, they should have rallied around the party's leader, and pushed through a free-market healthcare reform bill, wall funding, and some kind of major reform of gun laws. And Sessions should never have recused. "
Oh, I'm not in the least disputing that, but as Harry Truman said, the buck stops here.
He's the putative leader of the Republican party, and heavy is the crown on the head that wears it.
With all due respect to Harry Truman's pet phrase, it doesn't really change the facts of who did what, or what they should have done better.
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"Yeah but he inherited most of the party clowns"
Every president inherits party clowns.
Reagan and Bush II never held Federal office, inherited their party clowns, and did one hell of a lot better job of working with them than the current President has.
Granted, there were some in the party who were not going to work with him from the get go, but I still say that a lot of that stems from his actions on the campaign trail. He was laying the groundwork for being a fairly despicable person even then and people were distancing themselves from him.
So yeah, the buck stops there, Fistful, because he IS the buck. A leader is supposed to lead, and part of that means not actively going to war with the people in your party over what are often the damned stupidest things, doing it VERY publicly and doing it again and again.
Once again, his personality is completely unsuited to being president. Corporate leader yes. But the presidency isn't a corporation. You don't get to dictate.
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"Yeah but he inherited most of the party clowns"
Every president inherits party clowns.
Reagan and Bush II never held Federal office, inherited their party clowns, and did one hell of a lot better job of working with them than the current President has.
Granted, there were some in the party who were not going to work with him from the get go, but I still say that a lot of that stems from his actions on the campaign trail. He was laying the groundwork for being a fairly despicable person even then and people were distancing themselves from him.
So yeah, the buck stops there, Fistful, because he IS the buck. A leader is supposed to lead, and part of that means not actively going to war with the people in your party over what are often the damned stupidest things, doing it VERY publicly and doing it again and again.
Once again, his personality is completely unsuited to being president. Corporate leader yes. But the presidency isn't a corporation. You don't get to dictate.
Both Trump and the rest of the party leadership should be blamed for what they did wrong, respectively. With all due respect to Harry Truman's pet phrase, it doesn't really change the facts of who did what, or what they should have done better.
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"Yeah but he inherited most of the party clowns"
Every president inherits party clowns.
Didn't say otherwise. Only so much, if anything, Trump could have done in 2 years, actually far less taking campaigning in account, in straightening them out especially with the MSM vilifying everything he and they said or did.
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Bush II not only inherited clowns he was on board the clown train with them.
The Bush vision and idea of The United States is somewhat at odds with the constituency that elected them.
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The "buck stops here" is just recognition that most people will blame the guy at the top regardless of circumstances. It is just recognition of human nature and leadership. IMO, people should be able to go further than that when discussing it in any detail. Just because Trump is the easy/convenient target doesn't mean everyone should keep shooting at it.
1. Trump would not have gotten elected were he not the person he was. A "dignified leader" type person would have lost. Trump's personality had the media chasing his tail and giving him free publicity. I supported Cruz, but I don't think he would have pulled it off. I am curious what the deep state people would have done differently to attack Cruz.
2. I don't know what Trump himself could have done differently in the first two years other than maybe choosing someone other than Sessions as AG. Most of what I have heard is hindsight. Considering a lot of people in D.C. believed all the Russia-gate nonsense, some of what is recommended would have played into that lie. There were a LOT of good things that happened in that first couple years.
3. IMO, Trump's twitter account and personality played a big part in keeping the media off balance in the first year or two. Without it, I think we would have seen something different. I recall how much the media would push around Bush II by picking a negative story and pushing it constantly for weeks. Trump had the media constantly reporting on his tweets and other comments. They could not stay with a consistent message. I think people underestimate the value of that in today's political environment.
4. Paul Ryan is the main one in Congress who had the ability to change the mid-terms. You might include McCain in that since he stopped the bill to kill Obamacare. Lost opportunities everytime they passed another spending resolution in the House. I think they could have slipped in all sorts of legislation. He got the tax cuts passed which was a big win.
5. It is common for Presidents to lose ground in mid-term elections. There is no guarantee anything Trump did differently would have changed that.
6. I am thankful we had leadership in the Senate that focused heavily on approving judicial appointments. I think that will pay dividends for years to come. I really hope Trump can continue with that.
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The biggest thing I want to see is that riots and violence are a BIG LOSER at the ballot box. If Democrats win, I fear it will just promote the idea that chaos and rioting is the way to push around the electorate and we will see that tactic repeated over and over again in the future. If it loses big enough, they won't repeat it for a long while.
Well if they win, that will definitely be the lesson I take from it.
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"The "buck stops here" is just recognition that most people will blame the guy at the top regardless of circumstances."
Incorrect. Harry Truman placed that sign as recognition that no matter what happened, HE was the President, and was responsible as HMFIC.
Truman didn't blame his underlings. He didn't go on endless tirades about them. He took responsibility, no matter what happened.
" Trump would not have gotten elected were he not the person he was. A "dignified leader" type person would have lost."
I think that's a stretch considering just how reviled Hillary was, and still is, on the right.
"Paul Ryan is the main one in Congress who had the ability to change the mid-terms. You might include McCain in that since he stopped the bill to kill Obamacare. Lost opportunities everytime they passed another spending resolution in the House. I think they could have slipped in all sorts of legislation. He got the tax cuts passed which was a big win."
I never said that Trump was responsible for everything that went wrong. But he's certainly a core contributor. And McCain might have been a lot more willing to play ball had not Trump been such and out and out prick on the campaign trail. That relationship was dead in the water from the very first moment Trump opened his mouth about McCain; I have NO doubt that part of that vote was an iron gauntleted thumb right in the president's eye.
Please note that I NEVER have said, or even inferred, that Trump has been a total failure as a President. But had he handled himself a bit differently early on he could have been a LOT more successful.
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"Bush II not only inherited clowns he was on board the clown train with them."
At least he was on the train.
Half the time the current president isn't even on the same damned railroad.
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"Bush II not only inherited clowns he was on board the clown train with them."
At least he was on the train.
Half the time the current president isn't even on the same damned railroad.
Clown train tracks tend to run in circles
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Ultimately, I do have to say this...
The Republican Party in this country hasn't had a clearly defined and clearly orchestrated path forward since Regan left office, and its only real progress has been to tilt further and further left, which is the new center, apparently.
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"The "buck stops here" is just recognition that most people will blame the guy at the top regardless of circumstances."
Incorrect. Harry Truman placed that sign as recognition that no matter what happened, HE was the President, and was responsible as HMFIC.
Truman didn't blame his underlings. He didn't go on endless tirades about them. He took responsibility, no matter what happened.
I think we're talking about two different problems.
Yes, Trump should have run a more unified White House, with less reality show drama. A lot of his public kvetching about the people he chose to work with was embarrassing and disloyal and unprofessional and stupid.
On the other hand, the Republicans that were running both houses of Congress, and the NeverTrump tools that should have come alongside their president by joining his administration, or by providing honest, sane commentary from their posts in the media; failed the party and the nation. The former should have done more to supply the defects in Trump's leadership by working with him to pass more and better legislation, or at least tried, so that voters could see they had our backs. The latter chose to weaken their party and their country by magnifying Trump's flaws, both those real and those imagined.
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"The "buck stops here" is just recognition that most people will blame the guy at the top regardless of circumstances."
Incorrect. Harry Truman placed that sign as recognition that no matter what happened, HE was the President, and was responsible as HMFIC.
Truman didn't blame his underlings. He didn't go on endless tirades about them. He took responsibility, no matter what happened.
So you pretty much agree with me. I wasn't saying Truman was wrong. I just think we can take our discussion further than that.
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So you pretty much agree with me. I wasn't saying Truman was wrong. I just think we can take our discussion further than that.
Which means you pretty much agree with me that Trump is an atrocious person/leader. In the business world that style of leadership is termed toxic.
Truman took responsibility, Trump rarely does.
Truman took responsibility when things went badly, Trump rarely does.
Truman didn't provide a continuous quasi-liturgy of how everyone else has/is/will fail him personally, Trump does.
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Trump is a showman and as a showman he knows how to distract the press in much the same way as a magician uses one hand to distract your attention from what the other hand is doing. Think how many court appointments he's done with one hand while the media is kept busy barking trying to get the treat from the other hand.
Not saying I agree with all of it what that's who he is and how he works.
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" Trump would not have gotten elected were he not the person he was. A "dignified leader" type person would have lost."
I think that's a stretch considering just how reviled Hillary was, and still is, on the right.
"Paul Ryan is the main one in Congress who had the ability to change the mid-terms. You might include McCain in that since he stopped the bill to kill Obamacare. Lost opportunities everytime they passed another spending resolution in the House. I think they could have slipped in all sorts of legislation. He got the tax cuts passed which was a big win."
I never said that Trump was responsible for everything that went wrong. But he's certainly a core contributor. And McCain might have been a lot more willing to play ball had not Trump been such and out and out prick on the campaign trail. That relationship was dead in the water from the very first moment Trump opened his mouth about McCain; I have NO doubt that part of that vote was an iron gauntleted thumb right in the president's eye.
Please note that I NEVER have said, or even inferred, that Trump has been a total failure as a President. But had he handled himself a bit differently early on he could have been a LOT more successful.
The numbered parts of my comments were not necessarily aimed at you. Just me editorializing about the whole thing. However, when you say "the bucks stops here", you are saying Trump was responsible for everything, good and bad. That is what it means more or less. In 30 years, people will likely be agreeing with that statement. The details won't matter.
I don't agree with the last statement. I think the people who opposed him in both parties would have just found other reasons to not like him. He was an outsider who was upsetting the establishment.
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Trump is a showman and as a showman he knows how to distract the press in much the same way as a magician uses his one hand to distract your attention from what the other hand is doing. Think how many court appointments he's done with one hand while the media is kept busy barking trying to get the treat from the other hand.
Not saying I agree with all of it what that's who he is and how he works.
I think that is a big part of it.
I heard someone (Victor David Hanson maybe) say after year 1 that most Presidents stay Presidential or above it all and send out subordinates to do the controversial stuff and take the arrows. Trump says/does all the controversial stuff while his subordinates do their job with hardly any attention. They rarely get noticed until what they are doing is already done.
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Which means you pretty much agree with me that Trump is an atrocious person/leader. In the business world that style of leadership is termed toxic.
Truman took responsibility, Trump rarely does.
Truman took responsibility when things went badly, Trump rarely does.
Truman didn't provide a continuous quasi-liturgy of how everyone else has/is/will fail him personally, Trump does.
Truman was President in a different time and my knowledge of him is Atomic Bomb, "Dewey Defeats Truman", and Korean War. https://youtu.be/k9DO26O6dIg?t=96
The times I am aware that Trump has criticized former employees was normally after they commented publicly about Trump. I am not certain if that is 100%, but mostly. That is the only part of his tweeting/showmanship that I never liked.
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While Truman was in office he too had low approval ratings and was considered one of the least effective Presidents. A lot has changed looking back at his decisions and their effects.
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While Truman was in office he too had low approval ratings and was considered one of the least effective Presidents. A lot has changed looking back at his decisions and their effects.
Even back then much of the press was left wing, Truman was a bit further to the right than FDR, not on everything but enough, so much of the press didn't like him. The right wing press didn't like him either, he was too lefty. He also didn't have FDR's charisma. Todays dems would label Truman, probably even JFK, a far right wing extremist today.
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"The "buck stops here" is just recognition that most people will blame the guy at the top regardless of circumstances."
Incorrect. Harry Truman placed that sign as recognition that no matter what happened, HE was the President, and was responsible as HMFIC.
Truman didn't blame his underlings. He didn't go on endless tirades about them. He took responsibility, no matter what happened.
" Trump would not have gotten elected were he not the person he was. A "dignified leader" type person would have lost."
I think that's a stretch considering just how reviled Hillary was, and still is, on the right.
"Paul Ryan is the main one in Congress who had the ability to change the mid-terms. You might include McCain in that since he stopped the bill to kill Obamacare. Lost opportunities everytime they passed another spending resolution in the House. I think they could have slipped in all sorts of legislation. He got the tax cuts passed which was a big win."
I never said that Trump was responsible for everything that went wrong. But he's certainly a core contributor. And McCain might have been a lot more willing to play ball had not Trump been such and out and out prick on the campaign trail. That relationship was dead in the water from the very first moment Trump opened his mouth about McCain; I have NO doubt that part of that vote was an iron gauntleted thumb right in the president's eye.
Please note that I NEVER have said, or even inferred, that Trump has been a total failure as a President. But had he handled himself a bit differently early on he could have been a LOT more successful.
:facepalm: Atleast Trump isn't urinating in the Rose Garden, picking up his beagle dog by its ears .... or leaving stains on interns' blue dresses. So he's NOT a TOTAL reprobate .. [tinfoil].
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:facepalm: Atleast Trump isn't urinating in the Rose Garden, picking up his beagle dog by its ears .... or leaving stains on interns' blue dresses. So he's NOT a TOTAL reprobate .. [tinfoil].
Wow... Did I say... anywhere... that the previous occupants of the White House were saints?
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While Truman was in office he too had low approval ratings and was considered one of the least effective Presidents. A lot has changed looking back at his decisions and their effects.
Same with Eisenhower.
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Wow... Did I say... anywhere... that the previous occupants of the White House were saints?
They weren't? :O
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Wow... Did I say... anywhere... that the previous occupants of the White House were saints?
You sorta implied Trump wasn't a saint ..... :P [tinfoil]
Seriously, I never thought Trump was a saint or saviour....but I thought you were .... maybe, a bit harsh.
Trump seems a very direct person in many ways. "Whatcha sees iz watcha git." I think many politicians are often better managed and develop a "public face," usually developed as they matriculate through elected office. You know, glad-handing, kissing babies (pre-covid19) and so forth.
Donald Trump avoided this background, for better or worse, he has his own background, mainly working with many people, from people operating heavy machinery up to executive boardrooms. He's "not" a politician. He's a New Yorker
unannointed in politics, he won office largely due to that.
Certainly, I think his personality could be described as ...... prickly. But even before office, he was attacked and denounced in unprecedented ways. A vicious plot was unleashed against him via the Mueller plot to remove him. Republicans, who should have helped him, refused, hogtying his efforts to undo Obamacare.
If I was in Trump's shoes, I honestly don't know how I'd still be doing the job, let alone wanting four more years of it.
So I tend to want to defend him. His policies work. He seems to really love America, a rare quality these days. So he's not Saint.
Unless you compare him to most of those who oppose him.
Your post came off as a bit too critical. Maybe it was just me.
I have a sore knee ....it jerks a lot....guess it's part of my curmudgeon nature. :angel:
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Should Trump take responsibility? Yes.
Should other Republicans take responsibility for their own screw-ups? Yes.
Should we blame both for what they've actually done, or failed to do? Also yes.
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Should Trump take responsibility? Yes.
Should other Republicans take responsibility for their own screw-ups? Yes.
Should we blame both for what they've actually done, or failed to do? Also yes.
And give them credit for what they HAVE done.
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Paul Ryan is the main one in Congress who had the ability to change the mid-terms. You might include McCain in that since he stopped the bill to kill Obamacare. Lost opportunities everytime they passed another spending resolution in the House. I think they could have slipped in all sorts of legislation. He got the tax cuts passed which was a big win.
Wasn't there an historic number of Republican incumbents retiring from congress that mid-term election?
Wasn't Paul Ryan opposing the President pretty much across the board on everything other than on tax cuts?
The RINO's bailed at the first sign of a Republican President who was requiring movement on Republican issues.
Good riddance to bad trash.
The Republicans held the house in name only. The traitorous leftist RINO's were worse than Democrats.
Trump treated McCain better than he deserved -spits-
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Two things I've noticed of late. One is that there is a decided lack of Trump/Pence stickers and signs in the area, especially when compared to 2016 when they were all over the place. While they are out there this year, the numbers are way down as compared to the last election.
There are even fewer Harris/Biden/Harris stickers and signs, however. I think there is more leftover Bernie stuff, actually. Given that Hickory is a university town, that is probably to be expected.
Second is the makeup of the protesters in Dem cities. In the sixties and seventies, most protesters and rioters were members of the college age cohort. The mantra at the time was "Don't trust anyone over 30."
The protesters these days are high school age all the way up to senior citizens. There are many middle aged and senior folks participating in the protests. From my viewing of riot videos, the older folks tend to leave before the violence starts, however. Rioting and looting is a young person's game after all.
I think both of these factors point to less support for Trump, unfortunately. Fewer yard signs and bumper stickers for Trump in a largely conservative area is telling to me. While we have had a couple of protests locally, the were low key and everyone was well behaved. Folks were even sharing cold water bottles across the lines despite their political differences.
And the much larger age spread of the protesters would indicate greater support for the protests and riots than one would like to think is really out there.
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Two things I've noticed of late. One is that there is a decided lack of Trump/Pence stickers and signs in the area, especially when compared to 2016 when they were all over the place. While they are out there this year, the numbers are way down as compared to the last election.
There are even fewer Harris/Biden/Harris stickers and signs, however. I think there is more leftover Bernie stuff, actually. Given that Hickory is a university town, that is probably to be expected.
Second is the makeup of the protesters in Dem cities. In the sixties and seventies, most protesters and rioters were members of the college age cohort. The mantra at the time was "Don't trust anyone over 30."
The protesters these days are high school age all the way up to senior citizens. There are many middle aged and senior folks participating in the protests. From my viewing of riot videos, the older folks tend to leave before the violence starts, however. Rioting and looting is a young person's game after all.
I think both of these factors point to less support for Trump, unfortunately. Fewer yard signs and bumper stickers for Trump in a largely conservative area is telling to me. While we have had a couple of protests locally, the were low key and everyone was well behaved. Folks were even sharing cold water bottles across the lines despite their political differences.
And the much larger age spread of the protesters would indicate greater support for the protests and riots than one would like to think is really out there.
People don't have Trump-Pence signs up because they don't want them torn down and their houses vandalized.
A few years ago my wife put a sign in our yard against the MN gay marriage amendment. Someone stole the sign *and* they reported us to the police for nuisance barking dogs. (the dogs were in the house with all the windows closed at the time) The police didn't give a *expletive deleted*it about the sign being stolen, all they were interested in was the false report about the dogs -- which they took seriously but only issued us a warning.
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I probably don't have historical context for my area, plus I came here from CA, but there are Trump signs and stuff all over the place here. Guys are driving around in their trucks with big ass American flags on one side, and big ass Trump flags on the other. I see Trump 2020 flags as the second flag on people's flagpoles, and not just yard signs, but yard practically billboards on some of the rural property.
As I say, I don't have the history here to know if this is more or less than 2016, but there is a lot of Trump advertising going on.
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People don't have Trump-Pence signs up because they don't want them torn down and their houses vandalized.
To my knowledge that hasn't been much of a problem around here. If you go further north into Caldwell county, a mostly rural conservative county, Trump/Pence signs were almost as common as weeds in 2016. And I didn't not hear any reports of folks being vandalized. This year, far fewer signs and bumper stickers. The same would hold true going further south into Catawba county where it is also more rural.
Down here in Hickory I would say your statement about vandalism would have more validity as we are a university town. The population is around 45,000 IIRC. The closer you are to the school, or even downtown for that matter, the greater your chances of having an occasional problem with vandals I would think. Still, it would probably not be as bad as other places. Folks are a bit more laid back here.
And you would see the residual Bernie stickers and signs here and there around downtown and the university.
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I could count the number of Trump signs I saw in 2016 on one hand while Hillary signs were all the place. Just saw my first Biden/Harris sign a couple of days ago.
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Just saw on Rasmussen where Trump's approval rating has dropped six points from 52% to 46% over the last few days. No bump from the convention apparently.
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I’m in a pretty conservative area. I won’t put out any political items because I don’t want a situation to escalate to me having to shoot someone.
I keep my mouth shut except around known people.
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I’m in a pretty conservative area. I won’t put out any political items because I don’t want a situation to escalate to me having to shoot someone.
I keep my mouth shut except around known people.
Granted I don't know all about your circumstances, but I can't help but think we're all being much too timid about expressing our political views in public.
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Granted I don't know all about your circumstances, but I can't help but think we're all being much too timid about expressing our political views in public.
Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
I work in downtown Tulsa (AKA Berkley on the Arkansas). I do not put any stickers on my vehicle that might draw negative attention to it or me. No political stickers, no NRA decal, nothing.
I don’t want a situation to escalate to me having to shoot someone
I'm right there with that mind set.
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Granted I don't know all about your circumstances, but I can't help but think we're all being much too timid about expressing our political views in public.
Tell that to all the people assaulted for wearing a red hat.
I recognize your point, but in too many places in this country it is simply unsafe to express certain political views in public.
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I know people and property are being attacked. I get that. Not everyone can take that chance.
I'm not immune from timidity, either, but it's pretty clear we are letting ourselves be intimidated into silence. We're basically admitting that on every corner of the internet. The sad thing is, we seem to be OK with it.
FWIW, I'm going to put my sticker where my mouth is. Just ordered this:
https://shop.donaldjtrump.com/products/veterans-for-trump-bumper-sticker-set-of-2
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I know people and property are being attacked. I get that. Not everyone can take that chance.
I'm not immune from timidity, either, but it's pretty clear we are letting ourselves be intimidated into silence. We're basically admitting that on every corner of the internet. The sad thing is, we seem to be OK with it.
FWIW, I'm going to put my sticker where my mouth is. Just ordered this:
https://shop.donaldjtrump.com/products/veterans-for-trump-bumper-sticker-set-of-2
No, I hear you. I submit that our side would be "less timid" if we could defend ourselves against the kind of people we're talking about here. In most places that this stuff happens, we're more likely to be arrested for defending ourselves than they are for attacking us.
If I could kick someone's ass when they broke out the window of my car without worrying about the legal and monetary repercussions, I would be more inclined to publicly voice my viewpoint versus laying low. They might also be less inclined to using violence and property destruction as their method of debate.
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No, I hear you. I submit that our side would be "less timid" if we could defend ourselves against the kind of people we're talking about here. In most places that this stuff happens, we're more likely to be arrested for defending ourselves than they are for attacking us.
If I could kick someone's ass when they broke out the window of my car without worrying about the legal and monetary repercussions, I would be more inclined to publicly voice my viewpoint versus laying low. They might also be less inclined to using violence and property destruction as their method of debate.
This.
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No, I hear you. I submit that our side would be "less timid" if we could defend ourselves against the kind of people we're talking about here. In most places that this stuff happens, we're more likely to be arrested for defending ourselves than they are for attacking us.
If I could kick someone's ass when they broke out the window of my car without worrying about the legal and monetary repercussions, I would be more inclined to publicly voice my viewpoint versus laying low. They might also be less inclined to using violence and property destruction as their method of debate.
Plus being sued for damages, which is a consideration for those of us with houses and other assets that can be seized to pay a judgment. I actually worry more about civil liability than criminal. I have been in court enough times to know that with a good attorney, I will likely come off reasonably well in the criminal justice system. Civil liability, not maybe so much.
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You guys make it sound like the government is actually acting as "the muscle" to protect the interests criminal element.
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You guys make it sound like the government is actually acting as "the muscle" to protect the interests criminal element.
If they were actually protecting the interests of criminal elements what would they do different?
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You guys make it sound like the government is actually acting as "the muscle" to protect the interests criminal element.
Well, sure. Professional courtesy.
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Everyone — even The New York Times and The Atlantic, which have been starting to sound the alarm — knows these mobs belong to the Democratic Party. That’s one reason the mainstream media have released no battleground state polls, zero, since the Kenosha riots began on August 23. Given that a Zogby poll last week showed Trump with a 52 percent approval rating, a new high, one can surmise that major media polls right now are showing a decisive shift in Trump’s favor, which is why they’re not releasing them.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/31/the-face-of-the-democratic-party-isnt-joe-biden-its-the-raging-mob/
I don't know who this guy is, and I think he needs to lay off the caffeine, but he brings up some interesting news stories.
https://youtu.be/L-yi2C7RlQQ?t=401
Moar:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/michael-moore-panics-somebody-needs-to-pull-the-fire-alarm-now
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I don't know who this guy is, and I think he needs to lay off the caffeine, but he brings up some interesting news stories.
https://youtu.be/L-yi2C7RlQQ?t=401
I tried to watch one of this guy's videos a while back. Couldn't make it through without wanting to tear my already nonexistent hair out.
Good message, very poor delivery.
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One pollster finds black likely-voter job approval rate for Trump at 45%. (https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1301951964549439489)
If that's true, and it turns into votes then it's a game changer.
Other non-white LVs at 57%.
Again, if true, Trump would take all the states. And it wouldn't even be close.
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One pollster finds black likely-voter job approval rate for Trump at 45%. (https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1301951964549439489)
If that's true, and it turns into votes then it's a game changer.
Other non-white LVs at 57%.
Again, if true, Trump would take all the states. And it wouldn't even be close.
I've heard that if even 11% of black voters flip Republican, it sinks the Democrats.
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I hope those numbers are accurate and hold until Nov. 3, but as they say, old habits die hard. Folks could find themselves in the booth, thinking they are going to vote for Trump and the GOP, then hesitate and pull the other lever because that's what they've always done.
We will see soon enough.
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For whatever reason, a lot of this violence seemed to ramp up just as the party conventions were done and people are starting to really think about their vote with 2 months to go. R's were the only ones to talk about the violence and the need to shut it down. We will see how it shakes out.
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Leftist District Attorneys Announce Across The Country They WILL NOT Charge Rioters And Far Left
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q6FcuVuNE0
Here is the article he references.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/growing-numbers-of-us-attorneys-general-are-out-to-undermine-the-law/
Growing numbers of district attorneys are out to undermine the law
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Leftist District Attorneys Announce Across The Country They WILL NOT Charge Rioters And Far Left
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q6FcuVuNE0
Here is the article he references.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/growing-numbers-of-us-attorneys-general-are-out-to-undermine-the-law/
Growing numbers of district attorneys are out to undermine the law
Soros' prosecutors.
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This site gives Trump a 91% chance of winning: http://primarymodel.com/
Their model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Not that it's been in use that long but rather that by applying it to past elections it shows the strength of their model.
It does not predict a sweep for Trump, it shows Biden winning some states and some EVs but that was before the riots and the huge shift of minority and suburban voters to Trump.
They won't update their model based on recent events but for me it's a place to start.
I think we can take that 91% and increase it to darn near 100% because of recent events.
In some polls Trump has pulled even in Wisconsin and Minnesota two states that historically are bluer than California.
Now California seems out of reach but there's still two months to go and that's two months of of gaffes from Biden as well as relentless attacks on him and Harris for their stance on the riots.
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Their model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Not that it's been in use that long but rather that by applying it to past elections it shows the strength of their model.
That doesn't really mean much.
It’s not a prediction if you already know what happened. These modelers have a lot of choices to work with — literally millions of plausible combinations of economic variables, alongside other factors like polls, variables to indicate wartime and peacetime, incumbency, and so forth. It’s easy to fit these past data well just by testing out one specification after another until you come across a lucky one, like the robber who depresses every buzzer in a 15-story apartment complex until someone lets him in. It’s much harder actually to make good predictions.
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Now California seems out of reach but there's still two months to go and that's two months of of gaffes from Biden as well as relentless attacks on him and Harris for their stance on the riots.
California, New York, and Illinois will not go for Trump even if that's who the people vote for. New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento will manufacture millions of fake Democrat votes if they have to. They won't even be embarrassed or admit fraud if voter turnout is well over 100% of registered voters.
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I tried to watch one of this guy's videos a while back. Couldn't make it through without wanting to tear my already nonexistent hair out.
Good message, very poor delivery.
I just realized that if you slow that guy down to 3/4 speed on YouTube, he sounds hilariously stoned. :laugh:
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https://news.unclesamsmisguidedchildren.com/amish-enthusiasm-the-cow-horse-wagon-carriage-parade-for-trump/
If I had to guess, I would have thought Amish didn't vote. Maybe it's a good thing I was wrong.
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https://news.unclesamsmisguidedchildren.com/amish-enthusiasm-the-cow-horse-wagon-carriage-parade-for-trump/
If I had to guess, I would have thought Amish didn't vote. Maybe it's a good thing I was wrong.
There is a fair amount of diversity among the Amish as far as different levels of engagement with the world system.
They don't have strong central hierarchies dictating down to the local level, much is decided among the local elders.
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https://youtu.be/957h1jVcnms
That is a lot of cringe. Watch for the part where Stephen Curry talks about who he's voting for. :rofl:
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This poll has Trump and Biden tied in Iowa at 47% each, but the crazy thing is that gender gap.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/
Trump leads by 21 percentage points with men, 57% to 36% over Biden. And Biden leads by 20 percentage points with women, 57% to 37% over Trump.
If that's accurate it's ~2x what it was in 2016.
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Democrats are targeting women and minorities almost exclusively.
I actually had a lady friend tell me how she felt a Handmaids Tale reminded her of America under Trump.
How do you even begin to unpack that?
Everyone has to go through sensitivity training, bad speak bad think isn't allowed in public places, BLM, LGBT etc and pretty every minority group has a special protected status even if they engage in disruption and violence. We live in a feminized culture where the guys are asking swmbo how we should act and what they want us to do next.
A Filipino friend of mine was marveling at the beat down white men are taking in the media/news/HR depts. He see's it and said to me "sucks to be you". This was pretty much an unsolicited comment on his part, we were talking about a work related outreach they've started where we work. As an aside, he is pretty conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulls in 25% of the Filipino vote if my Filipino friends/acquaintances are representative of the whole.
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A Filipino friend of mine was marveling at the beat down white men are taking in the media/news/HR depts. He see's it and said to me "sucks to be you". This was pretty much an unsolicited comment on his part, we were talking about a work related outreach they've started where we work. As an aside, he is pretty conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulls in 25% of the Filipino vote if my Filipino friends/acquaintances are representative of the whole.
Filipinos seem to be reliably conservative. Kinda a history thing I guess. :)
Also, because of that, they're not a minority. Wrongthink.
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Also, because of that, they're not a minority. Wrongthink.
It's also like that with the Japanese. If you push the conversation correctly when debating with a leftist you can often times get them to admit that they hate them.
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It's also like that with the Japanese. If you push the conversation correctly when debating with a leftist you can often times get them to admit that they hate them.
Leftists hate the Japanese? Why? ???
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I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.
Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...
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I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.
Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...
I think she was watching a series on her computer IIRC.
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I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.
Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...
I think we can lay odds they're talking about the TV series. Not sure how it adheres to the novel.
Anyway, this is Trump's America, so shouldn't you be ironing your hubby's shirts or something? ???
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Casual theorizing: what if presidential elections today are so heavily weighted to personality that Trump wins on that alone? When Joe manages to have a personality these days, it's just frustration and anger and looking forlorn and tired. Last time, Trump ran against thoroughly unlikable Clinton. Before Trump, we had Obama vs Romney & McCain, Bush vs Kerry & Gore, Clinton vs Dole & Bush. I'm barely old enough to remember the elections before that, and of course personality has always been a factor. Is it possible, with video footage of the candidates so ever-present, that personality trumps anything else? Or has it always been true?
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I've seen analysis of the Kennedy/Nixon debates where people that listened to it on the radio claimed Nixon was the clear winner but people that watched it on TV said Kennedy was the shining star.
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I've seen analysis of the Kennedy/Nixon debates where people that listened to it on the radio claimed Nixon was the clear winner but people that watched it on TV said Kennedy was the shining star.
Nixon was sick and refused tv makeup. He looked horrible on tv, while Kennedy was young and comparatively much more handsome. Nixon looked like a bulldog even when healthy, and he might have been almost as smart as a dog.
Unfortunatly, while radio forces one to pay attention to what's said and process that, tv presents pretty images and many people respond to that without really processing the info presented.
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I know people and property are being attacked. I get that. Not everyone can take that chance.
I'm not immune from timidity, either, but it's pretty clear we are letting ourselves be intimidated into silence. We're basically admitting that on every corner of the internet. The sad thing is, we seem to be OK with it.
FWIW, I'm going to put my sticker where my mouth is. Just ordered this:
https://shop.donaldjtrump.com/products/veterans-for-trump-bumper-sticker-set-of-2
Just following up:
(https://i.imgur.com/uOkhlxy.jpg)
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Just following up:
(https://i.imgur.com/uOkhlxy.jpg)
Not nearly big enough and you didn't include your license plate in the image so that we can dox you. =D
Good on you for putting your money where your mouth is though. :)
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Leftists hate the Japanese? Why? ???
Functional enthostate that doesn't apologize for it's culture. Or at least that's my impression from stuff I've read. Never been. Narrowly avoided Oki by EAS.
The Japs probably laugh their asses off at our "Diversity is our strength" BS.
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Here's a site where you can play around with sliders for race, age, and education to see what needs to change for a candidate to win.
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/
Whoever said that, because of DC, Trump could not sweep is likely right as black votes would have to break like 80% in his favor for that to happen and that ain't happening.
But even a little increase in black support gets him the win. As does a slightly larger increase in the Latino vote. But get a little increase in both and Trump squeaks by.
Just getting 2% more from non-college educated whites swings it heavily in Trump's favor. Just getting 5-6% more turnout from that group give Trump a narrow win. Do both and it's a runway for Trump.
It's not very in-depth as there's no rural vs urban slider and blacks and Latinos are not undifferentiated masses that think the same way but it's fun to play with the numbers. There's no issues listed so you cannot sort that way, which would be interesting.
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An article that I believe is pretty darn accurate as to why they hate Trump so very very much.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/there-are-trillions-stake-how-washington-really-works-why-its-denizens-despise-trump
The “America First” policies represented by candidate Donald Trump were not within the legislative constructs coming from the K-Street authors of the legislation. There were no MAGA lobbyists waiting on Trump ideology to advance legislation based on America First objectives....
...Think about the larger ramifications within that truism. That is also why there was/is so much opposition.
No legislation provided by outside interests means no work for lobbyists who sell it. No work means no money. No money means no expense accounts. No expenses means politicians paying for their own indulgences etc.
Politicians were not happy without their indulgences, but the issue was actually bigger. No K-Street expenditures also means no personal benefit; and no opportunity to advance financial benefit from the insider trading system. Republicans and democrats hate the presidency of Donald Trump because it is hurting them financially.
President Trump is not figuratively hurting the financial livelihoods of DC politicians; he’s literally doing it. President Trump is not an esoteric problem for them; his impact is very real, very direct, and hits almost every politician in the most painful place imaginable, the bank account.
In the pre-Trump process there were millions upon millions, even billions that could be made by DC politicians and their families. Thousands of very indulgent and exclusive livelihoods attached to the DC business model. At the center of this operation is the lobbying and legislative purchase network. The Big Club.
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Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.
Strange things happen, and “statistically unlikely” is not a synonym for “impossible.” But the story of Donald Trump’s underground landslide is not serious analysis — it is wishful thinking for fun and profit.
One of the deathless myths of the 2016 election is that the polls were wildly off. They weren’t, neither at the national level nor at the state level, though the national polls were a little closer to the final tally than the state polls were, as historically has been the case. In fact, the national polls in 2016 were slightly more accurate than they were in 2012. The difference is that in 2012 the polls understated the vote for the candidate who was expected to win and did, while in 2016 they understated, by a slightly smaller margin, the performance of the candidate who was expected to lose but didn’t. But from a polling point of view, a five-point error is a five-point error; the fact that one error produces the right “call” is, as a technical polling matter, not especially important.
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Pouring scorn on the polls and on unwelcome news reports, predicting a Trump landslide with very little hard evidence to back up that wishful thinking, and, above all, reassuring conservatives that our ideas are more popular than they actually are, that the vast majority of Americans are on our side even if they don’t seem to know it, is a good way to build audience share and a social-media following. And if — as is likely though not certain — this is revealed on Election Day as a fraud and a fantasy, then you can always complain that the election was rigged and that the Deep State has done you wrong.
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It does seem the Trump campaign is counting on winning a greater percentage of the minority vote than any Republican in history.
That's a gamble I don't have much confidence in personally.
The Caucasian tribes of the USA by and large have a political death wish so a Trump loss would not surprise me at all.
Half the Caucasians and all minority groups want to finish off what's left of the USA of the old American dream. Democratic Socialism with cultural Marxism is the exciting future that awaits us if Trump loses.
If the Democrats regain power they very well may try and get statehood for DC and Puerto Rico and/or pack the Supreme Court.
With either of those taking place the "deep state" uniparty of Democrats and leftist Republicans will have permanent control of the government. Game.Set.Match
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Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.
Yea, that's how I remember it also.
The media and polls were telling us it was a real nail biter back 2016.
Almost too close to call, their polls and predictions were all qualified reporting due to the tight margin of error.
Fricking National Review.
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Yea, that's how I remember it also.
The media and polls were telling us it was a real nail biter back 2016.
Almost too close to call, their polls and predictions were all qualified reporting due to the tight margin of error.
Fricking National Review.
=D
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Mr. Willimason is of course referring to the polls CLOSEST TO THE ELECTION, when the pollsters have stopped trying to shape public opinion with wildly outbalanced sample percentages to build an impression of how unpopular conservatives/Republicans/Trump1 is.
It's the SAME GAME EVERY ELECTION and you'd think supposedly intelligent people would know the game. The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences. Prior to that, they are reflecting the pollsters preferences.
But, they do know the game: they're part of it.
1: I separated Trump out of this because he's not a conservative. He's a 90s liberal, which makes him Hitler today. I separated the Republicans out because many of them aren't conservative, either.
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It's the SAME GAME EVERY ELECTION and you'd think supposedly intelligent people would know the game. The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences. Prior to that, they are reflecting the pollsters preferences.
But, they do know the game: they're part of it.
Doesn't look like the exact same game this time around.
(https://i.imgur.com/xhWl9FT.png)
2016 above and 2020 below, both from fivethirtyeight
(https://i.imgur.com/hFi5snI.png)
I do expect it will tighten, although I would have expected that to start already and it has not.
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My prediction and I hope I'm wrong about everything after the first part.
Trump will have 270+ electoral-votes come Wed morning
The media and Dims will dispute the results and in the following one or two weeks will have found enough votes in their Magic Station Wagon of "Lost" Ballots to flip it.
Biden will then come down with the C19 he caught from Trump.
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My prediction and I hope I'm wrong about everything after the first part.
Trump will have 270+ electoral-votes come Wed morning
The media and Dims will dispute the results in the following one or two weeks will have found enough votes in their Magic Station Wagon of "Lost" Ballots to flip it.
Biden will then contract C19.
That's exactly right. Although Biden could also have a heart attack or a stroke (doesn't have to be Covid), but not until after the actual electoral college vote. They could also wait until January and and Biden's cabinet oust him and anoint Harris, but that's messier.
One way or another, it'll be President Harris in February, regardless of the actual election.
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Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.
The polls weren't wrong so much as they were useless.
Many of these polls are too heavily weighted toward democrats. That doesn't help. Also involved is the energy level at the base, and Trump appears to have an edge there. Many on the opposite side are not enthusiastic about Biden, however, some really have a deep anti Trump persuasion. How effective that is seems debatable.
I think Trump wins.... but no landslide.
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Doesn't look like the exact same game this time around.
(https://i.imgur.com/xhWl9FT.png)
2016 above and 2020 below, both from fivethirtyeight
(https://i.imgur.com/hFi5snI.png)
I do expect it will tighten, although I would have expected that to start already and it has not.
It's the same game with a different objective.
2016, they honestly thought it was in the bag, so they wanted to play up the horserace (it's tightening, she's running away, OHHHH, it's tightening again!) for ratings.
2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary. I don't think they believe they are going to win without serious manipulation.
Same game, different aim.
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It's the same game with a different objective.
2016, they honestly thought it was in the bag, so they wanted to play up the horserace (it's tightening, she's running away, OHHHH, it's tightening again!) for ratings.
2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary. I don't think they believe they are going to win without serious manipulation.
Same game, different aim.
AOC: Being Morally Right Is More Important Than Being Factually Correct
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The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences
2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary.
Will he be inevitable all the way to election day or will the polls tighten then?
Seems like voter complacency would be a big problem with the inevitable approach.
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AOC: Being Morally Right Is More Important Than Being Factually Correct
If you're not factually correct, can you be morally right? ??? Or is this an excuse to lie? [popcorn] :angel:
Politicians blabber in such .... "interesting" ways ..... >:D
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That's exactly right. Although Biden could also have a heart attack or a stroke (doesn't have to be Covid), but not until after the actual electoral college vote. They could also wait until January and and Biden's cabinet oust him and anoint Harris, but that's messier.
One way or another, it'll be President Harris in February, regardless of the actual election.
They'll make sure Covid gets the blame then call for Trump to be brought up on criminal charges for knowingly spreading C19. "He murdered our president!"
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They're make sure it's Covid then call for Trump to be brought up on criminal charges for knowingly spreading C19. "He murdered our president!"
Whose side are they on ...? [tinfoil]
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Whose side are they on ...? [tinfoil]
Sorry, changed my wording a little to "They'll make sure Covid gets the blame then..." but you beat me to it.
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The reason the polls are weighted toward Democrats is because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. The spread is somewhere between seven and eleven points depending on the survey. Additionally, roughly 40% of voters currently identify as independents, and over half of those lean Democrat in their voting habits.
Pollsters cannot just assume a 50-50 spread of Democrats versus Republicans and have even a faint hope of accuracy (not that they're trying to be accurate in the first place).
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The reason the polls are weighted toward Democrats is because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. The spread is somewhere between seven and eleven points depending on the survey. Additionally, roughly 40% of voters currently identify as independents, and over half of those lean Democrat in their voting habits.
Pollsters cannot just assume a 50-50 spread of Democrats versus Republicans and have even a faint hope of accuracy (not that they're trying to be accurate in the first place).
There are more D s than Rs , but Ds are still over-sampled in many polls. When it is said "over sampled," it means too many Ds are sampled in relation to their actual % of voters. It doesn't mean the sampling should be 50 : 50 of each.
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I do think polling this election is going to be unusually difficult because of the importance of weighting those samples. There are lots of huge splits in specific demographics and weighting those incorrectly will throw off the overall poll quite a bit. I also think overall turnout (including early/absentee voting) will be record setting and if certain groups vote more or less than they usually do that will not be accurately reflected in polling.
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There are more D s than Rs , but Ds are still over-sampled in many polls. When it is said "over sampled," it means too many Ds are sampled in relation to their actual % of voters. It doesn't mean the sampling should be 50 : 50 of each.
Yes, Democrats are indeed over-sampled in many polls. But they are not over-sampled in many other polls. You have to check the sampling percentages to know when it occurs.
I have not counted, but I suspect there is not as much over-sampling of Democrats as we might think. Too many folks think polling should be 50% of each party to be fair. Any poll sampled in that way is automatically invalid because the data is skewed.
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I do think polling this election is going to be unusually difficult because of the importance of weighting those samples. There are lots of huge splits in specific demographics and weighting those incorrectly will throw off the overall poll quite a bit. I also think overall turnout (including early/absentee voting) will be record setting and if certain groups vote more or less than they usually do that will not be accurately reflected in polling.
All good points. The ultimate poll is the one on Nov. 3, but even it will be suspect because of all the opportunities for fraud.
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^^^I think it is interesting to see that this group largely believes that if Biden wins, it can only be through fraud, but if Trump wins, it can only be the Will of the People. Huh.
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^^^I think it is interesting to see that this group largely believes that if Biden wins, it can only be through fraud, but if Trump wins, it can only be the Will of the People. Huh.
If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat. If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time. They don't even try to hide it anymore. (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know)
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If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat. If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time. They don't even try to hide it anymore. (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know).
Pretty much this.
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If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat. If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time. They don't even try to hide it anymore. (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know)
I would change that to the R's don't have legacy media or Soros on their side, but aside from that, I agree.
Also, say Republicans cheat the vote and win. Well, that will only balance out the way the Left games the system at everything from media, to mis-educating kids, to Operation Chokepoint, to...
The Left, even aside from their attempts to hack the vote directly, are stealing votes through the long con they've been running through the institutions. Doesn't make it OK for Republicans to cheat. Just a lot less worrisome if they do. And they're not Commie baby-killers, burning down your neighborhood, so there's that.
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(https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/x383/WLJohnson1/c5afbd9f77b2cdb447597035261b6080.webp)
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(https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/x383/WLJohnson1/c5afbd9f77b2cdb447597035261b6080.webp)
Hmm, what is "GL 85"? I don't recognize the outline. Atlantis?
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Greenland
Remember there was talk of Trump wanting to buy it?
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Greenland
Remember there of talk of Trump wanting to buy it?
Yes. Thank you! :)
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(https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/x383/WLJohnson1/c5afbd9f77b2cdb447597035261b6080.webp)
:rofl: Ha-ha! We can dream, can't we? ? ? ? =D
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The Moon-Men rarely vote for the Dems. In fact there's even an idiom that expresses that fact.
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The Moon-Men rarely vote for the Dems. In fact there's even an idiom that expresses that fact.
"The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"? ???