Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Ben on October 18, 2020, 10:00:48 AM
-
Has anyone found any at least semi-unbiased sources for early voting statistics? Other than agreement that the numbers are pretty staggering compared to previous years, depending on the source, it's either dems coming out in big numbers and Biden is now a shoe-in, or it's Rs coming out and it shows the polls are full of crap.
There seem to be many more sources saying that it's mostly dems voting early. I could actually see that, as they are more into mail-in voting and of course there is the big "get out the vote" thing on the dem side. Also, I think Rs are more inclined to vote in person (I'm not one of them and just voted myself), so I could see a lot more Rs coming out on election day, or earlier in states where in-person voting starts earlier.
Anyway, I would be curious to see current stats if there are some somewhat unbiased stats available.
-
Has anyone found any at least semi-unbiased sources for early voting statistics? Other than agreement that the numbers are pretty staggering compared to previous years, depending on the source, it's either dems coming out in big numbers and Biden is now a shoe-in, or it's Rs coming out and it shows the polls are full of crap.
There seem to be many more sources saying that it's mostly dems voting early. I could actually see that, as they are more into mail-in voting and of course there is the big "get out the vote" thing on the dem side. Also, I think Rs are more inclined to vote in person (I'm not one of them and just voted myself), so I could see a lot more Rs coming out on election day, or earlier in states where in-person voting starts earlier.
Anyway, I would be curious to see current stats if there are some somewhat unbiased stats available.
I don’t have a link handy, but one of the articles on this was specifically for some battleground states and showed that dems and republicans were returning mail in ballots in about the same numbers. About 40% each if I recall correctly. That leaves ~20% of course and since the ballots are not actually counted yet, those numbers are just based on registrations there probably isn’t any real goof data and it would just be spun by either side their way.
-
I'm going to assume the polls are BS, and there's no way to know real early voting stats.
-
I was never concerned about the ballot drop off box which is in the driveway to the police station with its surveillance system. Mail-in wise, according to the local soothsayers, Colorado's got a pretty good system. I don't know what makes it so, but that's what they're saying.
But the way things have been going, I'd recommend nobody concedes until the Courts finish their voting. <eyeroll>
-
I'm going to assume the polls are BS, and there's no way to know real early voting stats.
The exit polls have been worthless for quite some time.
-
We received our ballots on Friday, filled them out on Saturday, and I will be dropping them in the mail on Monday the 19th. I read in the local media that the ballot drop boxes are already getting a workout.
-
I'll be voting in person to eliminate potential middle men interfering with my vote.
Trusting the USPS to actually faithfully deliver your vote, particularly in this political climate, seems a bit optimistic.
-
The last unbiased analyst went fly fishing in Montana in the middle of a pandemic and hasn’t been seen since.
-
I'll be voting in person to eliminate potential middle men interfering with my vote.
Trusting the USPS to actually faithfully deliver your vote, particularly in this political climate, seems a bit optimistic.
Washington has been voting by mail only for decades, and the USPS doesn't seem to have a problem with ballots being mailed. But I have at times also dropped the ballots in the drop box at the local library if I happened to be going to the library.
-
I guess I'm a fence-sitter on early/mail-in voting.
I actually like and have used absentee ballots wherever I've lived because I hate being around people and waiting in lines. I also like sitting in front of my computer with my ballot as I research propositions and local seats that I am not familiar with, so that I can make a good decision. Here in Idaho they minimize the crap they try to throw on ballots, so voting is relatively fast, but in CA, with all their propositions and commie pinko government growth, it often took me several hours to vote.
I am 100% in favor of voter ID, and I think that it needs to be improved for mail-in absentee voting. Also voter ID security, so that other people can't log into my online information with simply my name and birth date.
I don't think I like these ballot drop-off boxes, as depending on the area, many of them seem to be in uncontrolled locations. I happen to trust USPS in my area to get my ballot where it's going. Otherwise, I would be in favor of drop-off boxes if they were in controlled locations, like police stations, county/city gov buildings, etc. Somewhere that someone monitors them.
Anyway, I'm mostly in favor of mail-in, as long as it is strictly controlled. Not just for my curmudgeonly ass, but for elderly, handicapped and others that can't easily get to a polling place. That said, if all mail-in voting went away completely, I wouldn't have a problem with in-person voting as long as a blizzard doesn't shut down the road between me and my voting location. :)
-
Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.
-
Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.
And what can someone do about their ballot if they find it has gone astray, especially close to Nov. 3? Little or nothing would be my guess, especially in states that only have mail-in voting.
-
Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.
USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
-
USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
Quoted for truth.
-
And what can someone do about their ballot if it goes astray, especially close to Nov. 3? Little or nothing would be my guess.
I would add to my post above that mail-in ballots should have a postmark deadline well before election day. Maybe 7-10 days earlier at a guess. I would say less, but non-CONUS military absentee ballots can take a while to get here.
-
And what can someone do about their ballot if they find it has gone astray, especially close to Nov. 3? Little or nothing would be my guess, especially in states that only have mail-in voting.
Mail it earlier so you're not in that situation ???
If the ballot has gone astray you can generally cast a provisional ballot on election day.
Or just vote in person if you're worried about it, I don't care.
I'm just saying you don't have to blindly trust USPS if you plan ahead a tiny bit.
USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all - it's the clerks who do the actual counting marking the ballot as received.
-
The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all - it's the clerks who do the actual counting marking the ballot as received.
?
Clerks and marking the ballot as received are part of the tracking process
-
?
Clerks and marking the ballot as received are part of the tracking process
If this is a question, I do not understand it.
My tracking has these steps:
(https://i.imgur.com/vd9IMxn.png)
USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.
-
If this is a question, I do not understand it.
My tracking has these steps:
(https://i.imgur.com/vd9IMxn.png)
USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.
So USPS clerks/carriers/trucks/etc... are not involved at all? How do these election clerks get it?
-
If this is a question, I do not understand it.
My tracking has these steps:
(https://i.imgur.com/vd9IMxn.png)
USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.
Once again you've missed the point. If a voter is in a vote-by-mail only state, Oregon or Washington for example, and their ballot has not arrived to be counted by Nov. 3, what recourse do they have? I guess it just sucks to be them.
-
I feel like there's recent jurisprudence on that very thing.
True it may not explicitly apply, but precedent exists
-
So USPS clerks/carriers/trucks/etc... are not involved at all?
:facepalm:
Most states have an easy way to track your ballot.
USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all
USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks.
USPS delivers a lot of mail, including ballots, but they don't track most of it and they do lose some of it.
USPS tracking sucks. You don't have to rely on USPS tracking for your ballot though.
The election websites run the by the election clerks provide their own tracking that doesn't suck.
If a voter is in a vote-by-mail only state, Oregon or Washington for example, and their ballot has not arrived to be counted by Nov. 3, what recourse do they have? I guess it just sucks to be them.
Not living in one of those states I can't say for sure, but most states have some form of a provisional ballot that would apply to cases like that.
But again, if that's your concern there are easy ways to avoid getting into that situation in the first place. Mail it early or go in person.
-
Another reason you don't do these freakin' ballot boxes willy nilly:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ballot-drop-box-la-county-set-on-fire-arson-investigation
The article mentions it was an "unstaffed" box. To which I reiterate that boxes require human security, and I don't mean antifa college kids sitting next to a box on a street corner who might tamper with the ballots. I mean a responsible party who will be held responsible for any monkey business.
-
As far as statistics, here's the report from my local clerk:
We have 56K registered voters here.
25.5K absentee ballots were requested & mailed out.
17K have been returned (~30% of registered voters).
In-person early voting starts today.
-
Early voting has been active in Lubbock for the last week. Every day has set turnout records.
Brad
-
I checked today online, and the county clerk's office received our ballots in the mail and marked them accepted. So now we wait for the count.
PS: According to the local paper, almost 18% of the ballots in the county have already been received, beating the former record set in 2008.
-
I did in person early voting, they were packed.
-
The Seattle Times just reported that as of one day ago, 33% of eligible votes in Washington have returned their ballots already.
-
The Seattle Times just reported that as of one day ago, 33% of eligible votes in Washington have returned their ballots already.
Just wait for election day. 112% of eligible voters will have voted in Washington.
-
I voted on Friday of the first week of early voting here. There was a line, but it wasn't that long and it went fast. For this area, there were quite a few people there.
-
Just wait for election day. 112% of eligible voters will have voted in Washington.
And during the next three days an additional 40% will be "found".
-
And during the next three days an additional 40% will be "found".
All Biden
Well, maybe two or three will be for Trump. You know, to make it look realistic
-
Twitter censored Eric Holder, and I have to say, I don't think he's wrong in some of what he says:
It’s too late to use the mails. Given Supreme Court rulings I urge everyone to now vote in person; early vote or use drop boxes. Protect your health but don’t let the Court and the deliberately crippled Postal Service deprive you of your most precious civil right. Plan your vote.
I obviously disagree with his whole Trump/post office thing, but it is likely late for doing mail-in if you want your ballot counted by election day. I just checked mine, which I sent in a week ago, and have been tracking the last few days, and it's only today that it showed up validated.
I've been pushing the thought around here that a mail-in deadline should be at least a week before election day. I can only imagine how many people on whichever side loses next Tuesday will complain that their ballot, mailed in next Monday, has not been counted yet the day after the election. Or possibly a week after the election.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/27/twitter-censors-eric-holder-for-tweeting-disputed-and-misleading-information-about-the-election/
-
I absolutely refuse to vote by mail. I'll be voting in person on November 3.
And probably be waiting in long lines.
-
Twitter censored Eric Holder, and I have to say, I don't think he's wrong in some of what he says:
I obviously disagree with his whole Trump/post office thing, but it is likely late for doing mail-in if you want your ballot counted by election day. I just checked mine, which I sent in a week ago, and have been tracking the last few days, and it's only today that it showed up validated.
I've been pushing the thought around here that a mail-in deadline should be at least a week before election day. I can only imagine how many people on whichever side loses next Tuesday will complain that their ballot, mailed in next Monday, has not been counted yet the day after the election. Or possibly a week after the election.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/27/twitter-censors-eric-holder-for-tweeting-disputed-and-misleading-information-about-the-election/
In my county the rule is the mail in ballot must be AT the Supervisor of Elections office by 1900 on election day, not postmarked. On the ballot, in huge bold letters it says "Mail no later than 26 Oct". And then on the news this morning they reiterated that if you still had a mail in ballot, don't mail it, take it to the early voting location and drop it off.
-
To me it doesn't really matter what the rule is, whether it's postmarked by election day or received by election day or what. I don't understand why "naked" ballots should be invalid but if that's the rule in place then so be it. I don't think it's terribly important to have a result the next day or even the next week as long as the rules don't change once voting has started and all of the valid votes (according to those rules) are counted properly.
-
I absolutely refuse to vote by mail. I'll be voting in person on November 3.
And probably be waiting in long lines.
No in-person early voting locations? I presumed that was a thing everywhere.
Brad
-
The entire process has become a circus, one that makes a total mockery out of the concept of "election DAY." If we want to have election MONTH, let's just come right out and make it official.
-
In Washington, ballots must be deposited in a drop box by 8 pm on Election Day or postmarked by Election Day. If mailing, the state recommends that they be mailed at least a week prior to Election Day. Ballots are not tabulated until starting at 8 pm on Election Day.
-
makes a total mockery out of the concept of "election DAY."
It's all been downhill since switching to the Australian ballot :old:
Back to viva voce!
-
No in-person early voting locations? I presumed that was a thing everywhere.
Brad
Yes. But I still intend to vote in person ON Election Day.
-
I don't understand why "naked" ballots should be invalid but if that's the rule in place then so be it.
Without the signed security envelop enclosing the ballot, it is impossible to tell if that person has voted more than once. It's one of the only real safeguards in a vote-by-mail scheme. And I used the term "scheme" deliberately.
-
I absolutely refuse to vote by mail. I'll be voting in person on November 3.
And probably be waiting in long lines.
I'll be there at 7am one the polls open. I'll be surprised if there is a line, maybe after 5pm, but not in the AM.
-
Without the signed security envelop enclosing the ballot, it is impossible to tell if that person has voted more than once.
I understand the security envelope, those are absolutely required and I haven't heard of any attempts to challenge that anywhere.
The court challenges in PA lately have been about secrecy envelopes (inside the security envelope), which seem like a silly reason to invalidate a ballot to me but I believe it was pretty clearly required in the rules.
-
Just wait for election day. 112% of eligible voters will have voted in Washington.
Any and every district that reports greater than one hundred percent turn out needs to be disqualified from the count.
There is zero reason to accept such blatantly tainted votes.
-
Any and every district that reports greater than one hundred percent turn out needs to be disqualified from the count.
There is zero reason to accept such blatantly tainted votes.
You're not wrong, but as a practical matter there's no way that stands up in court. I suspect what will happen is those districts will recount and find more ballots that are disqualified for being marked in blue ink instead of black, not having a secrecy sleeve or voting incorrectly, until they have "turnout" in the mid 90%'s.
-
You're not wrong, but as a practical matter there's no way that stands up in court. I suspect what will happen is those districts will recount and find more ballots that are disqualified for being marked in blue ink instead of black, not having a secrecy sleeve or voting incorrectly, until they have "turnout" in the mid 90%'s.
No second bites of this apple. Again it only serves fraud. Turn in on time and honest or you don't get counted.
This is an issue for state legislatures as per the constitution.
-
This list on state by state ballot deadlines was enlightening. CA and IL are by far the outliers in due dates, with CA the winner (loser) at 17 days after election day.
Props to the biased Epoch Times for pointing me to the list. :)
https://www.vote.org/absentee-ballot-deadlines/
Edit: I had more states than CA and IL listed, but found there were a half dozen or so that went 10 days out. CA and IL were the only ones that went beyond that, so editied to just those two states. The majority of states want ballots in on election day, as it should be.
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html
So the third quarter GDP did very well; but probably too late to have much impact on the election.
-
Texas is apparently at 95% of its 2016 total votes with two more days of early voting and Election Day to go. :O
I think this kind of thing is going to break a lot of the polling models.
-
Texas is apparently at 95% of its 2016 total votes with two more days of early voting and Election Day to go. :O
I think this kind of thing is going to break a lot of the polling models.
Actual total votes, or just mail-in and early votes? If it's total votes, then I think Texas will end up as a poster child for vote fraud when everything is over.
-
Actual total votes, or just mail-in and early votes?
Actual total votes.
2016 total (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas): 8.97 million
2020 so far (https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html): 8.45 million
If it's total votes, then I think Texas will end up as a poster child for vote fraud when everything is over.
I don't know how elections are run in Texas but I wouldn't think of it as a place that leaves itself open to vote fraud and most of their voting is in-person, not mail-in.
Although maybe being red for so long has led to complacency there.
-
I heard total turnout is going to be about 800 million.
-
I heard total turnout is going to be about 800 million.
:rofl:
-
Just in California
-
Actual total votes.
2016 total (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas): 8.97 million
2020 so far (https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html): 8.45 million
I don't know how elections are run in Texas but I wouldn't think of it as a place that leaves itself open to vote fraud and most of their voting is in-person, not mail-in.
Although maybe being red for so long has led to complacency there.
If most of Texas voting is in-person, and they are already at 95% of the 2016 vote total with early and mail in votes, they must have had one heck of a new voter registration drive.
Looks to me like there will be a lot of extra votes cast in Texas when the election is over.
-
We do have voter ID which makes it a little better. They scanned my DL when I voted.
A large chunk of the population doesn't vote even in Presidential elections. If a bunch of extra people decided to register, that could change things.
-
If most of Texas voting is in-person, and they are already at 95% of the 2016 vote total with early and mail in votes, they must have had one heck of a new voter registration drive.
Looks to me like there will be a lot of extra votes cast in Texas when the election is over.
Those are 2020 early voting totals compared to 2016 total number of actual ballots cast, not compared to total number of voters.
The Trib has a pretty good synopsis...
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/27/texas-record-high-early-voting-turnout/
Brad