Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Nick1911 on December 13, 2021, 10:30:10 AM
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Today's cheery topic:
At the end of WWII, the US dropped two nuclear weapons on Japan, causing an end to the war. It remains the only time that nuclear weapons have been used in conflict.
How long do you think it will be before nuclear weapons are used again in a conflict?
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Are you including any use by non-state actors?
Fission/fusion bombs only, or do dirty bombs count?
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Are you including any use by non-state actors?
Fission/fusion bombs only, or do dirty bombs count?
I'm including non-state actors, but only actual nuclear detonations.
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I voted within 50 years, and my candidates are India vs. Pakistan and someone vs. someone in the Middle East, in terms of state actors. In terms of non-state actors, who knows?
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Russia: Putin is something of a loose canon but that pales in comparison what Russia could become if something happened to him.
China: Economy wise they're on more shaky ground than many think. An economic collapse could cause the ruling party to trigger a distraction and/or if the ruling party falls it could trigger another Warlord era in China with nuclear weapons in the hands of some rather unpredictable people and for sale for cold hard cash to the highest bidder. China is the true wildcard here. Honesty I wouldn't put it pass them to set one off in a Chinese city if things get shaky in China then start the it's the US's fault. Also wouldn't put it pass our own MSM to join in.
India/Pakistan: Think they'll keep giving each other the stink eye for awhile unless events in China drag them in.
N.Korea: Seriously don't think Kim Jong-un is that crazy. His sister on the other hand............ If Jong-un dies we have a roll of the dice.
Iran: Yes, they're that crazy.
Israel: See Iran
And then we have SkyNet..........
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In my opinion it will be China using nukes against some other country, possibly the US. They are definitely the wild card to watch.
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In my opinion it will be China using nukes against some other country, possibly the US. They are definitely the wild card to watch.
I'm thinking Japan, they still feel they have a score to settle with Japan. They consider us a nuisance, Japan they hate. Plus striking Japan means no immediate favor in kind return.
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I think the major nuclear powers now will try to avoid it, but it there were a war and they were losing, the temptation would be there.
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I think the major nuclear powers now will try to avoid it, but it there were a war and they were losing, the temptation would be there.
I could see us doing it again if we were losing a shooting war with Russia or China.
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In case of direct conflict between the nuclear powers, whichever one finds themselves on the cusp of defeat will probably use nukes. (This assumes an actual shooting war between them directly, not a proxy war.)
Iran IS that crazy. And a new government in Pakistan could become that crazy. (Remember, the Pakis - at least some of them - were hiding Osama.)
Israel won't accept defeat and being overrun by anyone (which would mean their actual destruction and genocide) without going nuclear.
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Iran is prepping for another space launch attempt. Wonder how close they are to being able to launch a nuke?
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Iran is prepping for another space launch attempt. Wonder how close they are to being able to launch a nuke?
I think SpaceX is closer.
From what I've seen their tech looks....OK in propaganda videos but fails to actually work most of the time. Or it's flat out fake.
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In case of direct conflict between the nuclear powers, whichever one finds themselves on the cusp of defeat will probably use nukes. (This assumes an actual shooting war between them directly, not a proxy war.)
Iran IS that crazy. And a new government in Pakistan could become that crazy. (Remember, the Pakis - at least some of them - were hiding Osama.)
Israel won't accept defeat and being overrun by anyone (which would mean their actual destruction and genocide) without going nuclear.
I am thinking any war with Russia or China would stop short of invading that country to avoid that risk. Not sure how they would see invading the US.
With the increased availability of hypersonic missiles, the temptation to do a surprise strike becomes greater also. That whole thing could get messy.
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Iran gets a flyable nuke then they lob it at Tel Aviv if they get the least bit nervous about a preemptive strike from the Israelis.
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Not sure how they would see invading the US.
No need to invade in the near term. They already have Washington DC and the other major cities.
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If I was Musk, I'd be boosting a few tungsten rods into orbit... Just to have ready.
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China. Against anyone who allies with Taiwan. Most likely against US and Japanese Naval assets.
I don't see them pushing the issue during a recession, since that would shut down all the revenue they get from the US. At least not until they puppetize some more of Africa.
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I still think my foreign policy would work. Give Japan and Israel nukes. Give them B-2 bombers and an SSBN for all I care. Make sure everyone knows. Bet things would be real quiet. And yeah I know Israel has them and Japan could, but we want parity with any other regional power.
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I'm slightly encouraged that we have members who believe that nuclear weapons will never again be used in conflict. I wish I could have that kind of optimism in humanity that we won't eventually end up using them.
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I think the mostly likely perp for a nuke strike would be from one of the lower tier players. I could see some 3rd world goat herders getting something blackmarket from Iran and taking it by truck or ship and lighting it off in their enemy du jour's yard.
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I think the mostly likely perp for a nuke strike would be from one of the lower tier players. I could see some 3rd world goat herders getting something blackmarket from Iran and taking it by truck or ship and lighting it off in their enemy du jour's yard.
This my thought - zealots. The first world nuclear powers know it's a losing game to strike against each other (though I have to say, I'm not sure that Biden would retaliate, and certainly a "President Sanders" or similar would not).
The zealots don't care about repercussions, and portable devices are kinda their shtick. Iran is an example, but likely not the only one, that would happily supply some Taliban squad with all the fixins.