Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: gunsmith on February 27, 2022, 06:33:34 PM
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My friend is a foreign policy geek, he can speak volumes about the various militias and state actors in the eastern european region.
He says that an article 5 incursion is quite possible and that the ruskies would be likely to do cyber attacks stateside, or even an EMP.
Western media is claiming the Putin is on the ropes, which can lead to him being desperate.
Yet western media has completely emulated soviet era pravda.
Right now - on the meager resources of the Biden economy affords me - I am requesting your thoughts so i may allocate resources accordingly
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My friend is a foreign policy geek, he can speak volumes about the various militias and state actors in the eastern european region.
He says that an article 5 incursion is quite possible and that the ruskies would be likely to do cyber attacks stateside, or even an EMP.
Western media is claiming the Putin is on the ropes, which can lead to him being desperate.
I've very skeptical of everything I see from any media right now, on this. (On most anything, but this especially.)
Yet western media has completely emulated soviet era pravda.
Right now - on the meager resources of the Biden economy affords me - I am requesting your thoughts so i may allocate resources accordingly
The usual. Food, health/medical supplies. Ammo.
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I am skeptical that Russia would attack the US mainland unless we were attacking in Russia.
We get twitchy when US cities and civilians start getting busted up or dying. I think Putin knows that.
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I've very skeptical of everything I see from any media right now, on this. (On most anything, but this especially.)
The usual. Food, health/medical supplies. Ammo.
Masks
FEMA website warns Americans to maintain social distancing and wear a mask in the event of a nuclear explosion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cwjOvzLXQk
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I've very skeptical of everything I see from any media right now, on this. (On most anything, but this especially.)
The usual. Food, health/medical supplies. Ammo.
Same here for both. I don't trust the media and them going all 'Hooray Ukraine!' has me suspicious. I think there are truth and lies on both sides in this conflict.
I would start with food and water (or bulk containers for water). Doesn't need to be anything fancy, just rice, canned food, or something with shelf life. I like packs of instant mashed potatoes also. You might also make sure you have a decent radio and flashlight(s) with batteries. They make radios with crank chargers. I plan to get one or two of the bulk water filters this year (hopefully before hurricane season).
On the radios with crank chargers, an old boss of mine had 3 or 4 kids and had to ride out the aftermath of Hurricane Ike with no power for a bit. He said the crank radio he had did a good job of keeping his kids busy.
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I would start with food and water (or bulk containers for water). Doesn't need to be anything fancy, just rice, canned food, or something with shelf life. I like packs of instant mashed potatoes also. You might also make sure you have a decent radio and flashlight(s) with batteries. They make radios with crank chargers. I plan to get one or two of the bulk water filters this year (hopefully before hurricane season).
On the radios with crank chargers, an old boss of mine had 3 or 4 kids and had to ride out the aftermath of Hurricane Ike with no power for a bit. He said the crank radio he had did a good job of keeping his kids busy.
Some also have solar panels in addition to the crank
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Think about all the things that were hard to find with the covid, then figure after an EMP or cyberattack that partially (or more) takes down the grid, that will be at least 10X worse. You can't do any other survival stuff if you don't have food and water, and/or a means to grow/purify them.
If you have money to spare, keep some out of the bank. If a cyberattack locks your accounts like a Canadian Prime Minister, you might want some cash handy until things are fixed. If it's really OMG SHTF, cash will still have value for a while until people figure out you can't eat paper. $500 for five gallons of gas for your generator or a 25lb sack of rice might be a worthwhile bargain.
All other bug out / bug in stuff that we always talk about here still applies. For reasons other than what has been going on now, I've been looking at making a portable backup power supply of a couple of solar panels and a couple of batteries to not have to run my loud ass generator for smaller draw stuff during a power outage.
Though given current events, you might want to review this:
https://www.beyondweird.com/nuclearwar/s73p904.htm
=)
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My friend is a foreign policy geek, he can speak volumes about the various militias and state actors in the eastern european region.
He says that an article 5 incursion is quite possible and that the ruskies would be likely to do cyber attacks stateside, ...
Before we go too much farther ... what is an "article 5 incursion"?
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I’m in a region that’s certain to be slagged to eliminate major aerospace plants, a nuclear munitions plant (not active right now), major interstate junctions, and the skilled workers living in the vicinity so I’ve got that going for me. Atlanta and Greenville (Big Lockheed plants), Augusta GA (Fort Gordon), Columbia (Fort Jackson) are all within an hour to two hours of me.
That said I don’t think it’s going to come to that. Even an EMP attack requires a high altitude nuclear detonation and would surely trigger a nuclear response.
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Masks
FEMA website warns Americans to maintain social distancing and wear a mask in the event of a nuclear explosion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cwjOvzLXQk
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
hilarious, thanks :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Before we go too much farther ... what is an "article 5 incursion"?
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/26/1082964072/russia-ukraine-nato-article-5
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:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
hilarious, thanks :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Wrong link above
FEMA website warns Americans to maintain social distancing and wear a mask in the event of a nuclear explosion
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2022/02/27/fema-website-warns-americans-to-maintain-social-distancing-and-wear-a-mask-in-the-event-of-a-nuclear-explosion/
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If Russia were to set off a nuke, I can see Putin making it a high-altitude airburst to generate an EMP. He might make the calculation that it would scare the cr@p out of NATO, but without directly killing anyone via blast effects, it might not provoke a nuclear response. Especially if it did NOT take place over NATO territory. He could reasonably expect a lot of internal squabbling in NATO.
Of course, taking down the grid in one or more NATO nations could indirectly kill a lot of people.
Should he directly attack a NATO nation using conventional forces, you could pretty much count on the conflict to NOT repeat NOT be confined geographically. For example, if Putin invades the Baltics or Poland, it wouldn't surprise me if he started losing Russian Navy ships all over the world, and conventional attacks via naval air and cruise missiles would probably hit his ports from Murmansk to Vladivostok. In that case, his own subs might hit some of our ports as well; refineries and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico would be particularly juicy targets.
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I'm not convinced that Putin has designs outside of Ukraine.
NATO and the west slowly absorbing Ukraine has been a concern of Russia for years. They have always made it clear they wouldn't tolerate Ukraine as a western puppet state let alone being a NATO member.
This is a war of protecting borders, for resources and controlling access to the Black Sea.
My suspicion is that the people of Ukraine haven't elected anybody. More than likely both the west and Russia have been running "color revolution" operations to seize control of Ukraine all along.
The western thugs wrestling control of Ukraine from Russian thugs have set us up for a potential world war.
You want war? This is how you get war.
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Well, I think it certainly has the potential to escalate. I really thought Ukraine would have properly fallen by now. The red army isn't what it use to be.
Meanwhile, the response from the west was underestimated. Putin is fighting an economic war now - which he could argue is an attack. Modern warfare includes cyber and economic warfare. Also, a lot of Russian equipment is being dropped by brand new western made man-portable anti-tank and anti-air weapons.
This puts Putin in a hard place - if he backs down now, he shows the world that he is weak, and it would likely be the end of his domestic power in Russia. Russia's influence derives from it's hard power, it can't afford to lose this war. It has to go all in.
The longer this goes on, the harder it will be for Russia. More western equipment will flow in backed by the us and a united EU. Hell, even the Aussies and Swiss are sending hardware. The longer it goes on, the more well trained, equipped and capable the Ukrainian army becomes. And domestically, Russia will continue to fall apart under sanctions.
Scenarios, listed in order of probability:
- Putin commits more forces and hardware. War drags on, this turns into Chechnya. Russia becomes very poor. Might go back to a closed currency. Cold war II is on.
- Internal change of power. Putin gets disappeared by oligarchs. Kleptocracy aren't much fun when there's nothing left to steal.
- Putin lights off a nuke in Ukraine. The west flips out, but ultimately MAD works both ways, and NATO isn't going to start a nuclear war with Russia over it. Sucks to be Ukraine. Probably a very frosty Cold War II. Nonzero chance of turning into a proper nuclear war.
- Putin starts a multi-front war in an attempt to put the USSR back together. Unlikely, they can't even get their *expletive deleted*it together in Ukraine.
- Putin attacks a NATO member. Highly unlikely.
Domestic ramifications for the US?
Higher energy prices, predominantly. Probably higher grain prices. Biden will be happy to have something to talk about that isn't domestic problems he's not dealing with.
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My current working theory is Russia completes taking control of the whole country by the end of this month.
They will then start the process of bargaining for their exit from Ukraine. They will demand that Ukraine be an officially neutral country. The breakaway regions and Crimea will not be a part of neutral Ukraine.
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My current working theory is Russia completes taking control of the whole country by the end of this month.
They will then start the process of bargaining for their exit from Ukraine. They will demand that Ukraine be an officially neutral country. The breakaway regions and Crimea will not be a part of neutral Ukraine.
I assumed if Russia actually manages to take all of Ukraine, they would have some new leaders already picked out, and a fresh new constitution all ready to go for them. Then Russia provides security while the new government gets going and in particular builds out it's own statsi to maintain power.
Will that actually work? It could, but with western backing, the Ukrainian people could maintain one heck of an insurgency.
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I'm going to predict a civil war in Russia if resistance is sustainable in Ukraine and the rest of the world squeezes Russia.
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I assumed if Russia actually manages to take all of Ukraine, they would have some new leaders already picked out, and a fresh new constitution all ready to go for them. Then Russia provides security while the new government gets going and in particular builds out it's own statsi to maintain power.
Will that actually work? It could, but with western backing, the Ukrainian people could maintain one heck of an insurgency.
I have to imagine the Russian intelligence agencies have been thick on the ground there for a long time. If they were to succeed in their invasion I'm sure they've learned from our mistakes on "losing the peace" after military success in Iraq and Afghanistan.
You are probably correct, I hadn't even thought it out that far. Their assets are likely already in place ready to take over if the invasion is successful.
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I have to imagine the Russian intelligence agencies have been thick on the ground there for a long time. If they were to succeed in their invasion I'm sure they've learned from our mistakes on "losing the peace" after military success in Iraq and Afghanistan.
You are probably correct, I hadn't even thought it out that far. Their assets are probably already in place ready to take over if the invasion is successful.
That's true, but counterpoint: it seems clear that Russia misjudged the Ukrainian invasion quite badly - they may have made similar miscalculations about holding and stabilizing their newly occupied territory. If they even make it that far.
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I'm no longer convinced Russia can take Ukraine as a functioning country. They can raze it to the ground and rule the desert. They can nuke it and rule the glowing rubble, but I'm not at all sure they can take it while leaving anything worthwhile standing. The Ukrainians seem to be willing to go down in flames rather than be conquered easily.
That may shift as Russia steps up bombing and destruction of cities, or it may not.
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Between fog of war, and the lies/propaganda coming out of both sides, I'm having trouble determining exactly what is actually going on.
As examples:
Is Russia losing steam and running into stiffer resistance? Or are they moving slowly and deliberately to allow civilians to flee?
Is it a 6 mile long convoy heading to Kiev? 18 miles long? 45 miles long? Is it so long because its is jam packed with armor and logistics for a long siege, or is it long because it's breaking down, falling apart, and being ambushed at every turn?
Is that a Russian armored vehicle that smoked the car, or an out of control Ukrainian one?
Putin is in way too deep to back out now without getting a big chunk of what he wants. Between the SWIFT exclusion and the weapons being provided to Ukraine he's probably got pretext for expanding the conflict, but it isn't at all clear that his conventional forces are up to it. Unless [tinfoil] the Ukraine thing is a feint with lower quality troops and his real forces are poised elsewhere. Regardless, I'm leaning toward the idea that absent leveraging nuclear threats or something outside the norm (heavy drone warfare, off-books terrorism, support from China, etc) he isn't likely to have much success with a larger conventional war.
Unless Putin is removed by his own generals (which seems unlikely at this stage), it feels like Putin is a nuke-armed rat being forced into a corner. I really hope he doesn't decide that nukes are his only option. I do think he'd either waste a few in "tests" showing off or dump one carefully on Ukraine well before trying to roast the US.
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The notion that Russia is invading a western puppet government is laughable. They sure are fighting like a puppet regime would. Hopefully this doesn’t spread and we send lots of lethal aid. Can’t really blame expansionists Nato here if you give a quick glance at the long list of times Russia has used some excuses to destroy Ukraine.
If it does spread any proper response would risk nuclear war. I only hope that every Russian ship at sea has a shadow. No coming or going to any port the second an ally is attacked.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
This video is probably the most thorough explanation of the NATO/Warsaw Pact tensions, natural resources conflicts, and geopolitical implications of the whole thing, that I have seen thus far.
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It occurs to me that there's a low but non-zero chance that Putin has agreed to provide a diversion with Ukraine while China preps an invasion of Taiwan . . .
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It occurs to me that there's a low but non-zero chance that Putin has agreed to provide a diversion with Ukraine while China preps an invasion of Taiwan . . .
In some ways, Russia into Ukraine, then China into Taiwan, reminds me of Germany into Poland followed by Pearl Harbor.
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Lets not forget Germany into Poland was followed 2 weeks later by Soviet Union into Poland followed shortly by Soviet Union into Finland.
Germany into France followed by Soviet Union into the Baltic states
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Lets not forget Germany into Poland was followed 2 weeks later by Soviet Union into Poland followed shortly by Soviet Union into Finland.
Germany into France followed by Soviet Union into the Baltic states
You might have forgotten but I doubt Poland has
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^^^I wonder if the Baltics are sleeping with one eye open these days.
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^^^I wonder if the Baltics are sleeping with one eye open these days.
The Baltics are sleeping soundly behind a bunch of US weapons and under that sweet Article 5 blanket.
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The notion that Russia is invading a western puppet government is laughable.
Agreed. I doubt those Ukranians fighting off Russians blame us for this, they blame Putin and rightfully so.
Too many talking heads that are supposedly "America first" are "blame America first".
I suggest every American who wants to know what’s *actually* going on in Russia and Ukraine, read this transcript of Putin’s address. As I’ve said for month— NATO (under direction from the United States) is violating previous agreements and expanding eastward. WE are at fault.
[barf]
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I am sure the US is not without blame. I doubt whatever we did is the whole story.