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Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Bogie on November 14, 2022, 07:34:45 AM

Title: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Bogie on November 14, 2022, 07:34:45 AM
IMHO, people blathering on and on and on about a red wave. That motivated the hell out of the organizers on the left.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: fifth_column on November 14, 2022, 08:42:07 AM
I suspect the 'organizers on the left' were the people doing the blathering. All the talk about a red wave in the MSM struck me as an effective way to encourage leftists to get out and vote, while also making it easier for those on the right to think their single vote wasn't really needed after all.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: HankB on November 14, 2022, 08:42:46 AM
IMHO, people blathering on and on and on about a red wave. That motivated the hell out of the organizers on the left.
Funny you should mention that - I was thinking the same thing when people like Newt Gingrich were almost euphoric about the GOP gaining MANY seats in the House and capturing the Senate by 5 or 6 seats. While he was talking this up, I had a flashback of him predicting a Trump re-election by a huge margin . . . and then I knew we were in trouble. (As an accurate  prognosticator, he's becoming the Dick Morris of the GOP.)
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: bedlamite on November 14, 2022, 09:04:05 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x9R0yxAcvls

Sabotage, apathy, and propaganda. And fortification.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: RocketMan on November 14, 2022, 09:47:15 AM
It was clear to me that there would be no red wave when the people who were touting it would brag about how their favored candidates were "surging" in the polls.  Not ahead, instead still well behind, but by G-d they were "surging".
Other prognosticators would trot out polls showing their Republican favorites were within the polling margin of error.  That apparently was enough proof for them that there was going to be a red wave.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Pb on November 14, 2022, 10:08:10 AM
People voting for Democrats is my guess.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: charby on November 14, 2022, 11:05:56 AM
In 2020, nationwide according to the census bureau, of registered voters:

34% identified as Independent
33% identified as Democrat
29% identified as Republican

I'm going to guess that the 34% independent probably leans a single percentage or two towards the Democrats, so population wise the Democrats have the Republicans beat on numbers.

Square miles of land, the Republicans have the Democrats beat, but dirt doesn't vote.

Having no party affiliation, you get to hear and see things from both sides. The 3 big issues I heard people talking about was economy (inflation and wages), abortion (not happy with recent supreme court decision), and the war between Ukraine/Russia (concerns a GOP controlled house/senate would reduce funding). Oh, of course Trump being Trump probably didn't help the GOP either.

Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Ben on November 14, 2022, 11:14:47 AM
I'm going to guess that the 34% independent probably leans a single percentage or two towards the Democrats, so population wise the Democrats have the Republicans beat on numbers.

At least in the single digits, possibly more. Almost everyone I know that identifies as an independent used to be a democrat. At least those who have jumped ship in the last couple of decades.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: charby on November 14, 2022, 11:32:02 AM
At least in the single digits, possibly more. Almost everyone I know that identifies as an independent used to be a democrat. At least those who have jumped ship in the last couple of decades.

Independent folks I know are probably 55% were Democrat vs. 45% were Republican. Asking why they became Independent, most (like me) said that they became Independents because they got tired of both parties and were voting split ticket. Plus, in my experience they tend not to be single issues voters.

That being said your thoughts and experiences may vary greatly from mine.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Ben on November 14, 2022, 12:07:44 PM
Independent folks I know are probably 55% were Democrat vs. 45% were Republican. Asking why they became Independent, most (like me) said that they became Independents because they got tired of both parties and were voting split ticket. Plus, in my experience they tend not to be single issues voters.

That being said your thoughts and experiences may vary greatly from mine.

Much depends on geography. Having lived in coastal CA most of my life, there were vastly more dems than Rs, so it was a biased sample set.

Though a surprising percentage of liberal people from there that I have kept in contact with have only recently gone independent, with the main reasons being covid hysteria and post-Trump Trump. They still hate Trump, but they hate the results of TDS more, because it goes against the "liberalism" they grew up on, and they see the current trend from the left as the fascism that the old left railed against.

They are actually much in line with what Tulsi Gabbard has been saying lately, in that they fear a totalitarian military/industrial/MSM complex.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: cordex on November 14, 2022, 12:56:38 PM
Plus, in my experience they tend not to be single issues voters.
When people say they are "not a single issue voter", I get the feeling they are trying to imply that they have spreadsheets of candidate positions which they use to carefully calculate, meticulously strategize, and weigh various competing interests before voting for individuals.  This careful consideration obviously makes them superior to those dirty single-issue voters.  I'm sure that such people exist, but I don't think that is the norm for people who are "not single issue voters".

Most people I meet who like to describe themselves as "not single issues voters" are really zero issue voters.  If you dig at all into how they actually select candidates it often turns out they pick almost exclusively based on emotional and superficial - but emphatically not issue-related reasons.

Single issue voters may not be great, but at least they know a little bit about one issue.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Ben on November 14, 2022, 01:40:28 PM
Single issue voters may not be great, but at least they know a little bit about one issue.

An interesting occurrence here in Idaho this election: The infamous Ammon Bundy was running for Governor as an independent. One of his campaign sign types had "Don't vote" with a barcode on it. If you went to the barcode, it was actually all about "Don't vote unless you're informed on the issues". The website obviously put a plug in for Bundy's take on the issues, but it was also a screed about not blindly voting without knowing anything about the people and issues other than "R" and "D".

He was attacked by both Rs and Ds for the signs, and by election day, I personally saw more of them defaced than not defaced. The local news and establishment Rs and Ds were all making it sound like he was trying to keep people from voting at all (which is kind of a dumb take for a candidate) when all he was trying to do was to get people to do some research first. The establishment was saying, "No, just go vote no matter what".

Whatever you think of Bundy, I agree with him on not voting blind. It's one of my pet peeves, as I do literally hours of research before I vote.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Angel Eyes on November 14, 2022, 04:16:29 PM
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2022/11/14/the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-gop-establishment-has-some-splainin-to-do/

Trivia note: Republicans outvoted Democrats by six million in the midterms.

Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: MillCreek on November 14, 2022, 04:23:42 PM
^^^I did not know this about Mr. Bundy, but I am in agreement with his stance.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Boomhauer on November 14, 2022, 07:26:44 PM
Those who count the votes matter more than those who cast the votes.

And it’s the democrats.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: zahc on November 14, 2022, 09:57:43 PM
I also agreed with Bundy on that particular issue.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: HankB on November 15, 2022, 08:23:17 AM
There actually WAS kind of a red wave . . .  of voters. One of the talking heads on TV said GOP votes outnumbered D votes by about 5 or 6 million nationally. It's a pity that a few of the "excess" GOP votes in places like FL and TX couldn't have been reapportioned to tight races elsewhere.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: charby on November 15, 2022, 10:51:08 AM
There actually WAS kind of a red wave . . .  of voters. One of the talking heads on TV said GOP votes outnumbered D votes by about 5 or 6 million nationally. It's a pity that a few of the "excess" GOP votes in places like FL and TX couldn't have been reapportioned to tight races elsewhere.

That's the beauty of the constitution and that we are a republic and not a democracy.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: HankB on November 15, 2022, 11:54:50 AM
That's the beauty of the constitution and that we are a republic and not a democracy.
And we're a union of states - it says so right in our country's name - and not some single monolithic entity.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Ben on November 15, 2022, 01:19:01 PM
There actually WAS kind of a red wave . . .  of voters. One of the talking heads on TV said GOP votes outnumbered D votes by about 5 or 6 million nationally. It's a pity that a few of the "excess" GOP votes in places like FL and TX couldn't have been reapportioned to tight races elsewhere.

It seems like we had pretty big R voter turnout here as well, even though Rs were a lock in most all the races. It would be interesting to see if there was a pattern of big R turnout in deep red states with Rs staying home in very blue states. Also vice versa for Ds.

I know that back in CA, election day was always difficult for me because it was kind of "What's the point?" I nevertheless voted, but I knew plenty of conservatives who just blew it off because they felt their vote wouldn't matter and that it was a waste of their time.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Blakenzy on November 15, 2022, 02:31:27 PM
Do people that are counting/have counted votes get to make comments on social media? It would be interesting to hear it from the horse's mouth.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: HankB on November 15, 2022, 05:25:11 PM
Do people that are counting/have counted votes get to make comments on social media? It would be interesting to hear it from the horse's mouth.
In many places, the comments would be coming from the other end of the horse.  (C'mon, you expected someone to say that, didn't you?  ;)  )
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: T.O.M. on November 15, 2022, 06:24:50 PM
Here in Ohio, Republicans dominated the state races, and JD Vabce won a much closer race for US Senate.  The Dem ran a smart race, touting himself as a centrist, who agreed with Trump on some issues.  Vance ran as "I'm a Republican.  Trump supports me."  That was enough to get elected, but not the easy slide to victory many predicted.

IMHO, Republicans keep putting up bad candidantes.  Dr. Oz for example.  Or Hershal Walker.  Why the Republicans can't get better candidates shows a weakness in the party.  Yeah, you get the votes from people who vote straight party tickets, but it's hard to sell these kind of people to independents or Reagan Dems. 
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: grampster on November 15, 2022, 07:29:38 PM
An interesting occurrence here in Idaho this election: The infamous Ammon Bundy was running for Governor as an independent. One of his campaign sign types had "Don't vote" with a barcode on it. If you went to the barcode, it was actually all about "Don't vote unless you're informed on the issues". The website obviously put a plug in for Bundy's take on the issues, but it was also a screed about not blindly voting without knowing anything about the people and issues other than "R" and "D".

About 15 years ago when we lived Up North in Michigan, a group of us got together to oppose an ill conceived millage for a new high school.  I won't bore you with what all was wrong and outright dishonest about that millage.  We had a flyer printed to pointed all of that out in black and white and with quotes from school board members and administrators and hard public accessible evidence.  We put the flyer in an envelope and mailed it to every person in the school district with a message that said Don't Vote.... on the envelope.  Inside in huge letters at the top of the information was printed ....till you read this!
The millage was defeated.  There were more NO votes cast on that vote than the entire number of people who voted in a previous millage, and there was nearly a 100% percent turn out of registered voters in the school district.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: cordex on November 15, 2022, 07:37:08 PM
IMHO, Republicans keep putting up bad candidantes.  Dr. Oz for example.  Or Hershal Walker.  Why the Republicans can't get better candidates shows a weakness in the party.  Yeah, you get the votes from people who vote straight party tickets, but it's hard to sell these kind of people to independents or Reagan Dems.
Eh, you aren’t wrong about the quality of many Republican candidates, but Oz lost against someone who literally had brain damage, pointed a shotgun at a passing black jogger (ala Ahmaud Arbery but without the shooting) a few years ago, and mooched off his parents until he was 49.  Plus made blatantly contradictory statements about a variety of controversial issues. I don’t think it was relative candidate quality that lost that race.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: French G. on November 15, 2022, 08:08:12 PM
Here in Ohio, Republicans dominated the state races, and JD Vabce won a much closer race for US Senate.  The Dem ran a smart race, touting himself as a centrist, who agreed with Trump on some issues.  Vance ran as "I'm a Republican.  Trump supports me."  That was enough to get elected, but not the easy slide to victory many predicted.

IMHO, Republicans keep putting up bad candidantes.  Dr. Oz for example.  Or Hershal Walker.  Why the Republicans can't get better candidates shows a weakness in the party.  Yeah, you get the votes from people who vote straight party tickets, but it's hard to sell these kind of people to independents or Reagan Dems.

Well, hard right conservatives don't want to hear this but Oz is the example. The R candidate for governor of PA was a hard righties wet dream candidate on abortion. And flaky carpetbagging Oz outperformed him by a wide margin. So with a more Brian Kempy gov candidate there may have been enough coattails for Oz to get in on or lower turnout against team Red. So maybe stop with the candidate purity tests, quit thinking who is the most tasty primary candidate and pick someone who can get elected. They won't be the champion of your pet issue when in office. But there probably won't be an opposition party monolith at all levels of government against your pet issue.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: cordex on November 15, 2022, 08:36:14 PM
Well, hard right conservatives don't want to hear this but Oz is the example.
In this thread I have learned that Oz is both an example of a crappy candidate that republicans should avoid so they can get good candidates elected, and also the ideal, electable (but not elected) candidate that republicans should run more of.

Fantastic.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: zahc on November 15, 2022, 08:38:48 PM
What about Kari Lake failing to win in AZ?

Another bad candidate. Why can't the republicans just run normal, boring candidates with good policies?
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: French G. on November 16, 2022, 12:49:40 AM
In this thread I have learned that Oz is both an example of a crappy candidate that republicans should avoid so they can get good candidates elected, and also the ideal, electable (but not elected) candidate that republicans should run more of.

Fantastic.

Pretty sure that flaky carpetbagger indicates I don't see him as the ideal candidate. But you wouldn't have Chuck Schumer if the governor hadn't been an anchor on the campaign.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: cordex on November 16, 2022, 05:53:02 AM
Pretty sure that flaky carpetbagger indicates I don't see him as the ideal candidate. But you wouldn't have Chuck Schumer if the governor hadn't been an anchor on the campaign.
I won’t pretend to have the political insight or savvy to know what would have happened had a different candidate been run in a different race. 

It seems to me that “hard right conservatives” tend to compromise on candidates all the time. Hell, the fact that Republicans get votes at all from those nutso righties shows that they are willing to constantly compromise on subpar candidates.  My takeaway is that if democrats can win with a candidate like Fetterman then the issue the republicans face is not one of candidate quality or electability.
Title: Re: What stopped the "Red Wave?"
Post by: Ben on November 18, 2022, 09:14:14 AM
Here's one problem with the red wave - the old guys won't retire. I just saw on the teevee that Chuck Grassley has filed for reelection. If elected again, he would be 101 at the end of his next term.

Honestly, how about 75 and you're done as a politician? Go fishing if you're an R or go protest in Portland if you're a D and enjoy your retirement.