Analysis of the knife crime 'epidemic'

[Iain]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2008/07/sceptical_of_knife_epidemic.html#commentsanchor

After my post on Friday looking at the hospital admission figures for stab and gunshot victims in England, a story was widely reported that knife violence accounts for 14,000 people in Britain being admitted into hospital last year.

You may have seen it in the Independent on Sunday which claimed an exclusive and then almost everywhere else, including the BBC.

Well, I have checked out the story and discovered that the figure includes not only attacks but also accidental injuries from knives and other sharp implements. If one looks only at assaults with sharp objects (stabbings to you and me) the figure for the UK halves to about 7,000.

I have now been able to lay my hands on the Scottish data for the same category which shows approximately 1,300 stab victims north of the border for 2006/7, which is actually a fall from 2002/3.

The figures for Northern Ireland are small, but again the numbers of hospital admissions has fallen over the same period.

The inflation of the figures seems unnecessary to make the point: injuries from stabbings have gone up in England - particularly in London.

However, knives have become political weapons. No politician wants to be accused of complacency, so rhetoric trumps analysis. It wouldn't matter if exaggerating the scale of the problem didn't make it more likely youngsters will seek to protect themselves with knives and the wider population will needlessly worry about what is a tiny risk for all but a few.

I was puzzled, having studied this data, why the Home Office should be suggesting that doctors need to report stab wounds in the same way they report gunshot wounds to the police since we have the figures already

The reason, I understand, is that the hospital figures only apply to those admitted to hospital rather than treated and sent home. Ministers want police to have better information for their community crime mapping.

What I suspect such an exercise would reveal is that knife crime is rising in some inner-city areas, fuelled by gang culture, drugs and alcohol. However, it may actually be falling in much of the UK and I remain sceptical that there is good evidence of a national "epidemic".

PS: I have done a bit more number-crunching for a piece on tonight's BBC News at Ten and I think it is quite informative. By my calculations, knife crime has risen three times faster in London over the past five years than the rest of England. This, I think, demonstrates how the situation in the capital has driven the claims of an epidemic.


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Good, sensible analysis it seems. Shame it was in the blogs section rather than on the front page under the headline 'Calm down people'.

[Manedwolf]

Unless they use hyperbole, they can't ban something and act like they're effective in some way.

It's no different than Feinstein, Schumer and McCarthy here, absolutely ineffectual politicians who want to ban guns so it looks like they're doing something about crime.

[grislyatoms]

Well, I have checked out the story and discovered that the figure includes not only attacks but also accidental injuries from knives and other sharp implements.

Hmm, now where have I seen this gambit used before?

[Iain]

What I find interesting is the last paragraph:

By my calculations, knife crime has risen three times faster in London over the past five years than the rest of England. This, I think, demonstrates how the situation in the capital has driven the claims of an epidemic.

I suspect that understates the case, but he alluded to my suspicions above:

It wouldn't matter if exaggerating the scale of the problem didn't make it more likely youngsters will seek to protect themselves with knives and the wider population will needlessly worry about what is a tiny risk for all but a few.

Much like the 'epidemic' of suicides in a small part of Wales, I suspect media attention fuels the phenomena. It may normalise the concept of knife violence/gang violence, and it is likely that it creates an arms race amongst kids who are already involved in gang related behaviour.

[K Frame]

Oh dear. I wonder what the National Children's Bureau has to say about all this?

Maybe these kids spit out ethnoracially different foods when they were kids and said "YUK!"

[Tallpine]

However, knives have become political weapons. No politician wants to be accused of complacency, so rhetoric trumps analysis.

Amazing!    You have dishonest and power-hungry politicians in Britain too

I thought we Americans held the patent for that