OPEC needs to get its head out of the clouds, or the sand, and realize that they are only a singular market force, albeit a significant one, that can only
influence oil prices. They do not have control, nor have they ever had control over the oil price.
Oil prices are more influenced by OPEC during less tumultuous economic times. Traders, another significant market force, are simply less inclined to react to them right now. The bottom line is that the major purchasers of oil have decreased their consumption at a rate higher and more quickly than OPEC is cutting. Or at least that is what is being peceived by the traders. They are seeing a huge pile-up in inventory and reacting to it. The energy traders have the most immediate influence of the price of oil.
There is also a huge amount of speculation in the oil markets right now. Whenever the price of a commodity starts fluctuating rapidly, the volatility brings in traders that would not normally be trading it. Why? They want to make money and they know that there are probably going to be people 1. Panicking and 2. Making stupid mistakes and 3. Trading irrationally. They also know that there will be a bunch of other traders coming in who don't have a lot of experience in trading oil futures, which compounds factors 1,2, and 3. It is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, it is something that all markets, which allow speculation, have to deal with.
If you want an example, look at the NASDAQ and the NYSE during the early Dot-Com years. You can take the above paragraph and make a few word changes and come out with the exact same result. You had all kinds of people "day-trading", you also had unparalleled amounts of firms devoting a large amount of resources (ie. capital and man hours) because there was money to be made.
Quite frankly. I would love to know where the financial industry comes up with these "experts". They almost always end up making themselves out to be complete morons, making predictions and then betting the farm on it. It really does baffle me. I don't know if they are just so afraid of making there own individual predictions that they can't stray from the pack or what? One theory is that if they stay with the majority of the analysts there is security. If they are wrong they just say, "Well no one could have predicted that. Look. Everyone else got it wrong too." I used to see it a lot with individual stocks. You could do your own technical analysis and fundamental analysis and come up with where the security was likely head in the next couple of quarters (at least). I would just shake my head and marvel at their collective stupidity sometimes.
It also embiggens my heart is that it affects Chavez in Venezuela, too.
Amen to that. That guy is doing his best to upend democracy in that country. It is a shame.